My picks for week 2 of the 2010 NFL Season

I haven't usually been interested in calling the winners and loosers before games. We know how injury prone that sport is. The man assigned to pick these games has a fool's errand. I have been more interested in watch how these things play out in real time.

However, I have grown board with this routine. To try to luster my 2010 season up a bit, I have decided to lay down my predictions regarding winners and loosers. It could be fun. I am interested in testing my perceptions formally. I want to see how accurate I am, and if my accuracy can be improved.

Explanation

This is a pretty easy week. I don't see a lot of nail-biters here. Dolphins and Vikings produced a bit of sweat. Rams v Raiders also produced a little sweat. Patriots v Jets produced a lot of sweat, and is probably the most difficult pick on the board. Right beside that is the Giants v Colts matchup, which is also sweat provoking. I think the rest is pretty much straightforward.

We'll see how big the upsets are this weekend, and there are always a few upsets.

Dolphins v Vikings a is a bit of a tough call. I believe the Dolphins are much improved. I believe the Vikings are down from last season. I think they are meeting in the middle, which makes this a tough call, but I am going with my AFC East favorite: The Dolphins.

Rams v Raiders is a tough one to hadicap. Understand my position: These are two cellar dwellers, non-play off teams, teams that will not factor, organizations that don't have much going for them. With that said, of these two teams with little going for them, I think the Rams have the better Quarterback and I know they have the better Runningback. The Raiders just got royaled with cheese by the Titans, giving the Rams a defensive blueprint of how to deal with the Raiders. Against these factors is the Black Hole. This is almost a pick'em game, but I give the Rams a 0.5 point advantage.

One quick side-note on the Rams: I had to chuckle over the drama raised by one St. Louis sports rag. The writer dramatized the Rams' season as being "on the brink of another disaster" if the Rams lose to the Raiders. Certainly, no one wants to lose to the Raiders, but I must quibble with the drama-queen presentation. What were you expecting in 2010? Were you expecting a 'great leap forward'? Were you expected a 'big turnaround'? If so, you might need drug testing as a prelude to formal therapy. How can you expect that when we did not make any of the real moves necessary to produce such a turnaround?

I wanted to call pick'em on the Patriots v Jets. I believe both of those teams are down a step from where they were last season. I do not think either is a contender for Super Bowl 45. Either or both may make the playoffs, but neither will be a playoff factor. With that said, the Patriots are coming off a solid win, and the Jets are coming away from a 1-point arse-whoooooping. Make no mistake, they got whoooooped by the Ravens. Ergo, I make the Patriots the 0.25 point favor in this game.

Giants v Colts is extremely difficult to handicap. Ultimately I am going with the Giants because I believe the Super Bowl looser's Jinx is on the Colts.

Rams v Cardinals post-mortem

Sam Bradford completed 32 of 55 passes for 253 yards with 1 TD and 3 Ints. This gives him an NFL passer rating of 53.068. His NCAA rating would be 91.912.

33 QBs in the NFL threw enough to qualify for a passer rating on week one of the 2010 season. Sam is currently the 30th ranked QB in the league. Alex Smith (49ers), Shaun Hill (Lions) and Matt Moore (Panthers) are below him.

Sam can take some comfort that Mark Sanchez is only about 3 points higher than he is, and Joe Flacco is less than 10 points ahead of him. Brett Favre is less than 20 points ahead of Sam. As you can surmise, this was a tough weekend for QBs.

It should be noted that Vince Young is crushing everyone with a QB rating of 142.8. I knew he was good. That's why I own a copy of his jersey. Still, it's not all that impressive when you consider that he only shot 13/17 for 153 yards.

There are 5 variables required to compute an NFL or NCAA passer rating. Those five variables are:

1. Attempts

2. Completions

3. Yards

4. Touchdowns

5. Interceptions

Having written a simple little WPF Passer-rating calculator in C#, I think I understand this formula fairly well. I sat around fiddle-faddling with Sam's numbers trying to understand where things went wrong.

So the interceptions killed Sam, right? Not exactly. Subtract all three interceptions, and his rating only rises 75.795 (NCAA=102.821). Those are not particularly high ratings.

So he didn't throw enough touchdowns? Not exactly. Tossing another touchdown only tacks on 6 or so points, in the best case scenario. Tossing two more touchdowns only adds about 12 points.

The fundamental issue is Sam's yardage per attempt and yardage per completion. Sam only had 4.6 yards per attempt (253/55 = 4.6). Sam only got 7.9 yards per completion (253/32 = 7.9). His passer rating is only going to rise if these two figures heads north in a hurry.

Strictly speaking, Sam' stats on Sunday indicates that the Rams will come up short attempting to convert a simple 3rd and 8 situation, even the pass is complete. That completion will only happens 58% of the time. Those kinds of probabilities don't deliver a good passer rating.

What is missing? I'll tell you what is missing: the vertical offense. The Rams ran precious few vertical routes on Sunday. I saw lots of horizontal crossing shit; very few 999 all-goes. I would settle for a few 69 Razors. Even if you check down to Steven Jackson from 69 Razor, Jackson will have room to rumble because you stretched the field.

So what went wrong?

1. The WCO

2. Too many short routes (WCO).

3. No vertical 8 and 9 routes (WCO)

4. Too many horizontal crossing patterns inside 15 yards (WCO)

5. Pathologically conservative pass routes (WCO and Shurmur)

6. No vertical stretch (WCO).

7. Too many throws to Mark Clayton.

8. Mardy Gilyard was not in the lineup enough

9. Not enough throws to Mardy Gilyard

10. Poor pass protection

Notice that I list poor pass protection last? That's a new world order for me. I normally put that first on my lists.

As you can see, I am laying the corpse at the WCO's doorstep. Most of what went wrong with the Rams offense on Sunday has everything to do with the design and implementation details of the West Coast Offense, one of my least favorite offensive schemes in football.

Folks, this is what you get with the West Coast Offense. That dog had its day, and that day is now over. If you run the WCO, properly, this is the outcome you should expect. You get what you pay for. Once in a while, the WCO has a good Sunday, but that isn't most Sundays. As the famous New Orleans Bluesman once sang: Even the sun shines on a dog's ass some days.

In case you didn't get the take home message from the former paragraphs: I really, really, really, really, really don't like the WCO. If you do, show proof that it still works in its kosher form. I'll bet you real money you can't do that.

For further evidence of this fact, have a good look at what Kevin Kobb did in Philly before getting knocked out. Andy Reid truly experienced a retro moment there. He was trying to run a fully Kosher WCO for the first time in a long time. The battle did not go well, until Kobb was knocked out of the game, and Vick shreaded the WCO playbook.

Vick always plays sandlot ball. It is always a night at the improv with Michael Vick. Better a night at the improv-sandlot than a night with the WCO, I always say.

For some benighted people, the WCO means a highly sophisticated, organized, systematic, high-percentage, scientific approach to football. That perception is almost entirely faulty and off-point. What it is a stodgy, predictable, inflexible, easily countered offense. A well organized defense need not fear the WCO.

So what would be the correct solution for the Rams at this stage of the Season? Well it's simple really. You have to stretch the defense both horizontally and vertically. "Stretching" a defense horizontally alone doesn't stretch them at all these days.

A combined vertical and horizontal stretch is the signature and Hallmark of the Spread offense. The Spread is an offense Bradford knows well, and an offense which is mathematically sound. Mike Leach, the world's foremost authority on the Spread, is available on the market now. Ergo sum, you fire Shurmur, you hire Mike Leach. You run the vertical and horizontal stretch plays from the Spread, and you rip teams up.

Bottom line folks: I feel profoundly disconnected from the Rams.

The Rams executed a draft strategy this year I would never have pursued. None of the guys on my hit list were drafted by the Rams. All of the guys drafted by the Rams were either in my no-fly zone, or were complete unknowns. I would have changed offensive coordinators, Devaney did not. The lesson is plain: Devaney has a plan, and it doesn't look anything like my plan.

That would be fine if he also had a good plan. The problem is I don't like his plan. It involves ultra-high risk strategies such as (a) drafting wounded passers, (b) providing inadequate protection schemes, and (c) using an outdated, outmoded, systematically defeated offense (the WCO) that is certain to produce poor results.

Did I mention Pat Shurmur? I'd cut his head off. Get out the guillotine. Awe forget it...

Let me ask you straight-up: Do you think Devaney's plan is a good plan?

The whole team is headed in a direction I don't like, as I knew it would.

Week One, 2010

I have been slow in finalizing my picks for this season due to the fact that Pre-Season didn't furnish me with much certainty about what would happen this year. It was kind of a blah pre-season as pre-seasons go.

Cheating though it may be, I will post my pre-season predictions after the double-header tonight. I will publish my final predictions sometime Tuesday evening. It is a good think I waited. Week one was full of surprises that shed light on the upcoming season.

The Bengals go pop

The Bengals v. Patriots game was the first bit of light shed on the new season. The Bengals are a team know for their booms and busts. They rarely follow one playoff campaign with another. This has been true throughout their history. Although it would appear that the Bengals increased their ammo supply during the off season, they sure played like pooh-poo dooh-doo yesterday morning.

Don't compare this season's Week-One loss to that of last season. The Bengals had a fast-starting Denver team beaten, on the last week one, when suddenly the Immaculate Deflection struck. The Bengals played very well in that game; more than well enough to win. They were just robbed by fate.

Let's make no mistake about this: The Bengals got blown out by the Patriots. This was never a competitive game. The Patriots knocked them out and stomped on them. The logical inference is not that the Patriots are strong in 2010. The logical inference is that the Bengals are going flat after a good season, just as they have in so many years prior to this one.

My conclusion is that the Bengals got stomped by a suspect and vulnerable Patriot crew primarily because Carson Palmer did not perform well at all at the QB position. Make no mistake, Carson has never quite lived up to his billing as an elite QB. Now he is looking more and more like Jim Everett 2.0; but not quite that good.

Going into this season, we all know that Palmer is on the hot seat. Right now Palmer is 0-1 when it comes to making his case in 2010.

The Bengals also suffered something of a defensive failure, but I think that was triggered by the inability of the offense to stay on the field and eat the clock, as they did so well last season.

The lesson I take from this is clear: The Bengals will not contend in 2010, and the Ravens have an even stronger position to launch a Super Bowl run.

What the hell happened to the 49ers?

How did the Seahawks crush the 49ers? Chris Berman said it best: "This, above all results today, has us scratching our heads." The 49ers are not a great team, just a good one. However, the Seahawks do not look anything like a playoff team to my eye. How the hell did the Seahawks destroy the 49ers?

What we saw was a full-blown system failure for the 49ers. They failed offensively, and Alex Smith did not look at all like a franchise QB. Unfortunately, they also failed defensively, allowing the Seahawks 38 points. How did that happen to this potentially-elite Mike Singltary defense? This I find shocking.

Don't read too much into this. As a famous New Orleans bluesman once sang: Even the Sun shines on a dogs ass some days. I have a hunch this may just turn out to be a fluke game. Last season, the Seahawks opened by crushing my Rams 28-0. They went 4-11 in the next 15 games and finished as the 6th worst team in the league.

The Jinx

The Colts are suffering the Super Bowl loser's jinx. What did I tell you about that thing? It is real and powerful and effective. During the deep off season, I shocked some people by making the Texans my favorite to win the South.

Right now, I think it is a two horse race: Titans vs. Texans. The Colts are bringing up the rear. I think the Titans have a distinct advantage.

The Giant defense seems much-improved.

Perry Fewell seems like the man of the our in New York. The Giant defense looked good yesterday, drastically better than last year. They victimized the Panthers as we would expect them to. If things continue to improve, expect the Giants to the lead the East for the duration of 2010.

Based on limited data, the Giants could be the best team in the East.

The Vick controversy

Let's just say that the Kobb era didn't get up and fly yesterday. I'll give you the two key reasons. First, Kobb looks like the second coming of Shaun Hill. Second, Andy Reid was calling a classic West-Coast game, and the WCO is an outmoded, outdated, obsolete offense that just doesn't work anymore.

You saw how easily the Packers were nailing the Eagles in the early going. I assure you, that was not because of the struggles of a young QB. That was because of the ease with which you can counter-measure the WCO system.

The second Kobb goes down with a concussion, and Vick goes in, the WCO playbook gets tossed out, and the Eagles begin to surge. Reid is a true believer in the WCO. He is not going to give up his religion without a fight. However, he would be best served to just let Vick play.

I am not a fan of the crazy gunslinger and the sandlot QB type, but that style of offense works better than the WCO does. It will produce more yards and more points and more gray hair for NFC DCs than the WCO will

The curse of Alex Barron

I hope you were watching the Sunday night game. It all came down to the final seconds. Tony Romo throws a game winning touchdown pass to Roy Williams in the right corner of the end zone. The Cowboys win! Nope! Guess again. There is yellow laundry on the green grass. Alex Barron, 6th year man from Florida State held mr. Brian Orakpo of the Texas Longhorns. Oh shit! Is that the ball game? Yep, holding #71 offense. That's the end of the game folks. Redskins win. Good night, and good luck.

The penalty was absolutely decisive. Without the penalty, the Cowboys win. With the penalty the Redskins win. The whole game turned on just one penalty. Jeezzzeee... I would hate to be Alex Barron right now.

You should have seen the Play Maker Michael Irvin on the NFL wrap-up show. The frustration! The exasperation! The anger! To quote Irvin: "I told him in training camp 'YOU SIT YOUR FAT BUTT DOWN AND BLOCK FOR 3 SECONDS'".

Michael was killing me. I was laughing my ass off. Play Maker, you do not know how many Sundays over the course of the past 5 years I have screamed at my HDTV "YOU SIT YOUR SCRAWNY ASS DOWN AND BLOCK FOR 3 SECONDS!" At 6-7 and 325 pounds, I think Alex is actually pretty scrawny. He has less than 10 pounds of fat on his body. You have to give him credit for that much. Nevertheless, I said essentially the same thing as the Play maker, about 875 million times.

I feel your pain, Mike. Furthermore, you are feeling the pain I (and all Ram fans) experienced for the past 5 years. I don't understand Alex Barron. He's got every gift God ever gave an offensive lineman, except intelligence, and he wrecks it savagely by committing all these stupid penalties. Herm Edwards claims that the offensive linemen are usually the smartest guys on the team. Not Alex. You cannot get this guy to eliminate mistakes.

Back in the deep off-season, when I made Dallas my mild-favorite to win the NFC, I worried about whether my Rams had injected the poison pill into the Cowboys' fuel mixture. This worry already seems like a serious concern.

I am sure Billy Devaney was sweating a bit after dealing Barron for Carpenter and then subsequently releasing Carpenter. Essentially, he gave away Barron of nothing. Then, when you see Barron in the starting lineup for the Cowboys... It doesn't look so good for Devaney. When you hear that former Ram coach Jim Hasslet, a guy you fired, is targeting Barron because he is sure Barron will screw up... Well... it's cold comfort.

Then comes vindication. Barron makes the decisive penalty play that costs the Cowboys a win in his first week as a starter. Awe crap... The Ram fans who didn't want to flush Barron--and there were not many of them--all looked at each other and said: "Maybe Devaney was right... this time."

The Rape of Detroit

Now for the truly egregious moment of the week! The Lions get a game winning touchdown pass without franchise QB Matt Stafford, and the Zebras take it away upon further review. Let's make no mistake: the Refs sodomized the Lions like a Jailhouse rapist going to work on new meat in the shower.

I am wearing my Calvin Johnson jersey and a black arm-band all day long. I am protesting this injustice.

I know you are going to quote the fucking rule book. That ain't nothing but good 'ole fashion communism. I know a touchdown when I see one, and that was a touchdown. He lost control of the football as he was standing up to go celebrate. That was a catch with full control in the endzone.

The refs are lucky they were in Chicago. In Detroit, they might have come down with a bad case of Columbian Neck-Ties.

What did I chastise Lion Management about?

Folks, when I was setting team goals for the Rams, pass protection and sack-reduction were of paramount importance. I sited Detroit as the perfect example of how not to do things. Matt Stafford finished his rookie campaign needing not one but two surgeries. Still, the Lions got him no viable pass protection in the 2010 draft, or in free agency.

I stated that this was incredibly stupid, and now look what has happened. I accused the Detroit management of digging the kid an early grave. Guess what? Detroit will not be getting up off the carpet in 2010, and they will not make a run. Why? Matt Stafford is out for the next 4-6 weeks with an injured passing shoulder. Don't expect him to perform perfectly when he returns. Expect another off-season surgery.

You see, this is what comes of Buttism. You cannot draft players based on how many seats they will fill. As much as I love Jahvid Best, it would have been better to take a Left Tackle.

Is Sam Bradford next?

So the Left Tackle the Lions didn't take (Rodger Saffold) is now a Ram. I have profoundly mixed observations about the Rams line, and mixed feelings about what I am about to say about them. The Rams line looked considerably better than last year in week 1. They still did not look like a high quality line. Usually, it takes 5-6 weeks for an OL unit to jell, and show signs of a little team work.

There are several questions. Will this line jell? If they jell in 5 to 6 weeks, will that be soon enough to keep Bradford healthy. Is this unit talented enough to protect Bradford?

You did notice that the Cardinals were opening some mighty big running holes yesterday, right? They kinda looked like the New York Jets last season. Awe shit! Look at the guy wearing #66! Is that Alan Faneca? Gheeze... isn't he that washed up dude the Jets released? Booouuuyyy! Look at dem holes in the defensive line. The HD video is pretty clear.

Man, wouldn't Steven Jackson benefit from holes like that? How are the Jets doing at the Left Guard position? Did I hear somebody say that Hard-Knocks exposed shitty performance for the Jets at the Left Guard position?

I categorically rejected all the absolute bullshit floating around about Faneca in the immediate aftermath of his release from the Jets. I knew it was a salary dump. I knew the Jets' management was spin doctoring with heaping helpings of disinformation.

Can the Rams jump on the Cardinals this afternoon?

I wanted to leave this blog entry until the last moment mainly because I didn't want to provide any possible bulletin board material for the Cardinals. However, I considered posting these ideas as far back as three days ago.

To state my biases:

1. I believe the Cardinals are concave down and declining. Whether they understand it or not, they are entering a comprehensive rebuilding phase.
2. The Rams are entering the third year of a comprehensive rebuilding project. If the foundation has been well laid--and I have 863 tons of doubt about that--this project should begin bearing fruit soon.

With that said, this looks like a very close match up. I was not surprised to see Sterling Sharpe pick the Rams on the NFC Playbook show. I was surprised at the level of skepticism his cohort hit him with when he did so.

Folks, you don't have to be a believe in the Rams' rebuilding project to understand that this is close match. Just look at me for an example of that fact. You just have to play a handicapper game called "Sit down".

When evaluating a pair of teams to determine a favorite, you make a combined fantasy team out of the two rosters. You count the number of starters from each side. The one with the greater number of starters is the the most talented team. You must also consider injuries, conflicts, personality problems, suspensions, etc. However, Sit Down is the fundimental assessment of the situation.

Just to make a long story short: The Cardinals do win the Sit Down evaluation but not by much. The Cardinals win defensively 6-5. The Cardinals win the offensive match-up more lopsidedly 7-4, but this is mostly because 4 of their offensive linemen beat out the Rams' offensive linemen. The Cardinals lose two key match ups offensively: Sam Bradford and Steve Jackson make Derek Anderson and Hightower sit down. The Cardinals only win one offensive match-up decisively, and that is Larry Fitzgerald vs. any Ram receiver you please.

Understand that Larry has a dinged up knee, and he has been overheard worrying about offensive chemistry...

When handicapping this game, we need to ask several questions:

• How important is the Quarterback position?
• How important is the running back position?
• How injured is Larry Fitzgerald?
• How likely are the Cards to sack the hell out of Sam Bradford?

These are four maddening questions. They say it is a quarterback driven league. I think this point is often over-stated, but it is true. The main running back is a key offensive producer, especially in this post-west coast era.

Now Larry's case is really important to the outcome of this game. Most fantasy predictors are sitting Larry in this game because they have heard tale of his worries about offensive chemistry with Derek Anderson. Further, they have little or no confidence in Derek Anderson, and that is more than justifiable. Most 'experts' think Larry is going to put up poo-pooh doo-doo numbers today. If so, the Cardinals are going to have great difficulty producing points.

The most shocking tale of the preseason was the Rams' sudden offensive point production. The Rams finished 2009 dead-last in point production. They scored 175 points in 16 contests for an average of just 10.9 points per game. They couldn't throw the football to save their lives. The passing offense... nay, the entire offense looked like keystone cops at a Chinese fire drill.

Then suddenly the Rams pop 19 on Cleveland, 36 on the Patriots, and 27 on the Ravens. Go figure. Much of the credit belongs to Sam Bradford, but he only accounted for 20 against the Patriots and 7 against the Ravens. The entire offense looks much better organized and more aggressive.

When Bradford is healthy, I think it is quite likely that the Rams can score 21 points a game. Maybe more.

So, the grand ultimate question you need to ask yourself is this: If the Rams pop 21 on the board against the Cardinals can they score 22? I have grave doubts about the Cardinals ability to produce points during the regular season this year. They certainly had problems doing it during the preseason.

Folks, I am not saying it is a lock, but we could be looking at an upset here. How surprised will the league be if the Rams open undefeated and equal their win total for all of last year in just one shot?

The Rams Offensive Line...?

The dirty little question mark...

So I recently received a challenge note from a fellow Ram fan. He claimed I was being far too hard on Devaney, Shurmur and particularly the offensive line. He wanted to know if I had missed out on some key developments in the evolution of the offensive line, like the acquisitions of Jacob Bell, and Jason Brown, not to mention the drafting of Jason Smith and Rodger Saffold.

Regrettably, I did not not miss out on the key developments in the evolution of our offensive line. Perhaps my life would be better and happier if I had. Sadly, I know all about these things, as well as the dumping of Richie Icognito and Alex Barron; both moves I favored. In much knowledge is much sorrow...

The Challenger wanted to tell me I was wrong about the Rams' OL. You see, the Rams' OL has been 80% reconstructed over the course of the past 2 seasons. Jacob Bell is the only man left from the 2008 line. Ergo, I am wrong. The Rams have every chance of fielding a rock-hard offensive line in 2010. Devaney has done his due diligence, preparing a potentially strong line for Sam Bradford to operate behind.

This was his argument in a nutshell.

While the points regarding the offensive line moves are factually correct, the conclusion drawn from them is confounded by the video tape evidence. The Rams have made many, many moves on their offensive line over the past three years. Few, if any, seem to be bearing any fruit.

We need to remember that the Rams offensive line gave up more than 40 sacks in both 2008 and 2009. The Rams had a quarterback rotation by medical triage during these seasons. In preaseason 2010, they surrendered 6 sacks in the game against the Vikings, and Bradford was hit on almost every pass attempt during the Patriot game.

Where is the fruit of all this labor? To what factoid can I look for evidence that these moves are paying off?

With this as a backdrop, let us take a close look at the Rams offensive line, starter by starter. Let's look at the most most heavily scrutinized and suspect unit on the 2010 Rams' Roster. Let's go right to left, not left to right.

Right Tackle Jason Smith

At the Right Tackle position we find the #2 overall pick in the 2009 draft, Jason Smith. Jason is a 6-5 310 pounder who is athletic and lean. He is said to have a mean streak. I can't find that in him, or at least I couldn't in 2009. Of course, he only played half the year in 2009 due to a major concussion. This is trouble. If the Rams need to reach for a Mark Wallace cap and slap it on Jason's helmet, then so be it. Do whatever it takes to keep him in the lineup

The intriguing fact is that Jason was drafted to replace Orlando Pace at left tackle, but had wound up at the right. The Rams chose to start Alex Barron there last season. They seem to be settling on Rodger Saffold there this season. More about this in a moment...

At this moment in time, Jason Smith has not proven himself in the NFL. He has not validated the Rams' decision to select him with the #2 overall pick in the 2009 draft. Some have already called Jason Smith a bust, and the NFL's most over-paid player. I feel those statements are very premature. Still, Smith has a lot to prove in 2010. If he does prove himself, the Rams' OL will move a lot further along the road to respectability.

More about this soon.

Right Guard Adam Goldberg

At the Right Guard we find a journeyman Backup offensive tackle Adam Goldberg. Goldberg has spent most of the last three seasons filling in at various positions along the Rams offensive line. You might call him the 6th man. Whenever anyone gets injured, Adam gets the call; he's the first replacement in the game. He has played a lot of downs in the past three years. You might even describe him as a virtual starter. Now he will be a true starter. I trust Adam up to a point. I don't expect him to make the next several All-Pro teams, but he is a trustworthy dude at the right guard. The problem is that he won't stay there for long. The moment Jason Smith or Rodger Saffold go down, Goldberg will exit the right guard position and become the swing-tackle again. Who then shall be our right guard?

Center Jason Brown

At the center we find Pro-Bowler Jason Brown. This is the one move the Rams have made in the past two years that seems to be paying off. Brown missed a couple of games with a knee problem in 2009, but for the most part, he was very solid. I saw him win fights at the line of scrimmage against such super-luminaries as Albert Haynesworth. He gave up a couple of heinous sacks against the 49ers, but this had to due as much with organization and teamwork as anything else. I am satisfied that Jason Brown is as advertised.

Left Guard Jacob Bell

At the left guard we find Jacob Bell... My favorite. I have have slammed Jacob Bell quite a bit in the past two years. To me, he has looked like a GM error. The Rams acquired him as a free agent from the Titans for the princely sum of $36 million, and to this day, I don't know why. A few more bucks would have brought us Alan Faneca. Certainly, Alan would have been better. Jacob is basically a runty guard who doesn't have a lot of drive and power. I have not seen him win many fights at the line of scrimmage. I have not seen him pancake anyone in two seasons.

On the other hand, I have seen him suffer a lot of connective tissue injuries and come into camp under weight. You know what this means, right? Underweight, then subsequent connective tissue injuries? Bell is coming off both a torn hamstring and a knee surgery during this past off season. Bell has my sympathy for the pain he must be experiencing. These things hurt a lot. I know personally.

Still, I wonder whether we should expect more or less from Jacob in 2010? Less, I think. I question the organizations continued reliance upon him at right guard. Certainly, when Alan Faneca magically appeared on the market again this off-season, I would have claimed him off waivers immediately. That was a gift from God we spat upon. That pissed me off to no end.

Right Tackle Rodger Saffold

Finally, we have the rookie 2nd round pick from Indiana, Rodger Saffold. Saffold got some mixed reviews from an assortment of critics, but word on him is generally good.

Some questioned his origins at Indiana, a program not known for developing pro-prospects. Some questioned the nature and character of the back injury he suffered in college. Many say he is a beastly run blocker and road grater, but not such a brilliant pass protector.

Still, I heard other reports from Michigan and Ohio State alums that Saffold was the best offensive lineman in the Big-10 over the past 3 seasons. This would include Packer Rookie Brian Bulaga. Packer insiders claimed that the Pack was planning to select Saffold, but were surprised to find Bulaga still available when their number came up.

The truth be told, we have no idea how Rodger will turn out. We are at the dawning of his era, and we just don't have much evidence to look at yet. I myself have no feel at all for what he can do and cannot do at this moment in time. I am waiting to see him in action against starters through an entire game. We should call him the X-Man because he is the greatest unknown factor on the Rams offensive line going into 2010.

Strange Doings with the Tackles

As I mentioned earlier, when Jason Smith was selected, he was anointed the successor to Orlando Pace. Yet, Alex Barron wound up being the Left Tackle for 2009. This move was made because Barron was purportedly left-handed with a left-dominant step. Also, the Rams were not to keen on trying an untested rookie at the all-important LT position.

When Rodger Saffold was selected, he was immediately praised by Mike Mayock for his outstanding flexibility, and ability to play any position on the line (save center). He was immediately projected as the starting right tackle for the Rams, with Alex Smith flipping over to the left.

Well folks, history does not appear to be unfolding in this fashion. As of today, the Rams depth chart shows Jason Smith at the right and Rodger Saffold at the left.

Is this a bad thing? Maybe, maybe not. A team needs a good right tackle almost as much as it needs a good left tackle. Allowing Smith to continue at right creates a bit of continuity, and gives him a somewhat familiar place to play. Allowing Rodger Saffold to continue at left, where he played in college, prevents him going through the hard learning curve Smith went through last season.

You do have to wonder why they would trust Saffold at left this season, but not Smith last season... Was Alex Barron that good? Can it be that you just don't like your #2 pick from 2009? I heard rumors Devaney regretted passing on Dirty Sanchez. Is this also a rejection of the #2 pick overall in 2009?

Durability

The greatest concern of all, regarding this unit, is durability. For three straight years, the Rams offensive line has suffered copious quantities of injuries. All of the linemen from 2007 are now gone. All but one from 2008 is gone. Three of five return from 2009 season. Few, if any, have proven that they can stay healthy.

Years ago, former Ram corner Rod Perry told me that durability and dependebility is part of the basic job description of a Pro-Football player. To play pro-football, you must have a body that can endure the punishment of the sport. If you don't have a body that can withstand these blows, and still remain healthy enough to play, then you just aren't a Pro-Football players.

There you have it. Certainly this was my downfall as a player. I couldn't stay healthy, even on the Junior College level.

The greatest question mark regarding the Rams' offensive line is the durability and dependibility of these five starters. None of these men have proven that they can go 16 straight games without skipping a beat. If they can't make it for 16 games, neither can our quarterbacks (plural). If the Rams don't have men who can deliver 16 games, then they don't have real pro prospected on their offensive line.

Fire the kicker! Fire the Kicker! Fire the Kicker!

I understand Texas Longhorn kicker Hunter Lawrence is available, should the Saints should want him. If I were you, I would get him. You don't want to suffer Seminole-Colt syndrome on the way to your second championship. Rumor has it that Garrett Hartley is safe, even if after missing two field goals last night. I would cut him and get Hunter.

Other than that, would say that the Saints had a pretty damn good outing last night. The game was a tad bit boring; a mixture of a defensive struggle, a little bit of the Vikings just plain struggling. The score would not have been so close had the Saints made either of their two field goal attempts.

There were some surprises. I did not expect to see the Saint line maul and manhandle the Viking defensive line so brutally. The Saints were able to shove the football down the throat of the Viking defense without benefit of a power back like Steven Jackson, and Vikings seemed powerless to stop them. Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks just hammered the Viking tackles and blew them right off the line of scrimmage. That is a harbinger of bad times for the rest of the league. If the Saints can do that to the Vikings, the rest of the league, save maybe the Ravens, are going to get pummeled.

Now I have the world's biggest case of guard envy. Envy, envy, envy, envy, envy! Carl Nicks looked a hell of a lot like Barry Allen. Further, he looked even better than Jahri Evans, the NFL's All-Pro right guard. At 6-5 and 343, he is about the biggest damn guard I have ever seen.

Speaking exclusively for myself, I really wonder about the Vikings at this point. Chris Collinsworth commented several times about how much Favre appeared to be missing Sidney Rice. I couldn't agree more. However, I would add the following line: Favre appeared to be a beat up and tired old man at the end of the game, and he looked very disappointed in himself. Believe it or not, I understand totally. I am a couple of years older than Brett and I know all about bone-on-bone grind contact. I have advanced osteoarthritis in my knees.

Personally, I don't know how he is doing it. Further, I wonder if he can do for the entire season. After watching the post game, I wondered if we might be hearing of Brett's retirement again very soon. I know Brett has never been a quitter, and when he is in, he's all the way in. Still, he did not look good last night. With all three rivals in the North improving considerably, I think the Vikings have tough sledding ahead.

The NFC West is a mess

A little prologue. I am not a cheerleader. I am not here to extol any team. I am not going to hype the new season. I am not trying to sell tickets. I am not here to lick the booties of a key access points. I am not a promoter or a glad-handler

My objective is absolute accuracy. I want to make an accurate prediction that matches the final outcome of 2010 season. I want to describe the exact fact of the matter.

It seems to me that the NFC West is a mess. Top to bottom, this is the worst division in the NFL. You have only one moderately play-off caliber club in the San Francisco 49ers, but don't bet on them to go far. You have two teams on the down-slope of rebuilding. Then you have the loosing-est team in football, over the last three years, now entering the 3 year of a comprehensive rebuilding program. The Rams hope to be headed up, but how high can they go?

As we evaluate these football teams, keep in mind Herm Edward's Law: Having a franchise QB is worth four extra victories per year.

The 49ers

The 49ers are (by far) the most talented and complete football team in this division. They are the only team worthy of a playoff birth. They have an outstanding defense and they have excellent offensive weapons. There is just one little fly in the ointment: The quarterback position.

Many folks had high hopes that Alex Smith turned the corner last season. I myself thought he turned the corner this past season. This preseason, Alex Smith has looked plain ordinary. He looks like a journeyman QB, not a franchise QB. How far can you go with such a QB? Round 1 of the playoffs? Round 2? Not round 3 unless dumb luck strikes.

If Alex Smith should happen to resemble a franchise QB by the end of the season, the 49ers might contend for the Super Bowl. How likely is this to happen? I doubt it will happen. Right now, we have to say that the 49ers have found their starter, but they do not have what we would consider a franchise QB.

The 49ers were 8-8 last season. Due to the spiraling collapse of the NFC west, they should improve to a minimum of 10-6. I am going to predict an 11-5 finish for the 49ers.

The Cardinals

As I have stated before, I think Cardinals are staring down the gun-barrel at a long and disappointing fall. Think of all the key Cardinal playmakers who just aren't there anymore. Anquan Bolden, Antrel Rolle, Karlos Dansby, and ace QB Kurt Warner. The Cards just gave up on Matt Leinart. Larry Fitzgerald has gone down with a knee injury.

I know they think they found replacements for several of these players. I completely disagree with them. They have not. I will admit that Chris Mortensen is correct when he says the Cardinals think better of themselves than most experts do. Sure, fine, but what does their false confidence have to do with anything? Zip, zero, ziltch, nada, nothing, sweet fuck-all, that's all

Derrek Anderson is now the new starting QB in Phoenix. For the life of me, I cannot comprehend why anyone would regard Derrek Anderson as a franchise QB, least among them Ken Weisenhunt. This guy is not a used-to-was. He is a never-was. Sorry, just have to be brutally honest about it. I cannot believe that fellows like Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter can talk with a straight face about how Anderson will be a solid replacement for Warner. Say what?

I can see no reason why I would be optimistic about the 2010 season if I am a Cardinal fan. Remember Herm Edward's law? This was a 10-6 football team with Kurt Warner. I am going to subtract 4 victories because of Kurt's retirement, and 1 more for everybody else.

I think this is a 5-11 Cardinal football team, and believe me, that is a generous assessment of the situation. The Cards could be worse than that.

The Seahawks

What about the Seattle Seahawks? Folks, this is year ONE of a comprehensive rebuilding project. They fired the GM and the Coach. They sacked the staff. They have flushed good veterans who could have helped them. We see every evidence of a full-scale rebuild in progress. Remember, this is just year 1 of the project.

Seahawk fans are mavens, and they still believe they still have a quality team that was just in the Super Bowl a couple years ago. Actually, that was almost 5 years ago, and most of those guys are gone.

The Seahawks had a very good draft in 2010. They might well have had the best draft of any of the 32 NFL teams. Still, this will not produce a big or sudden turn around.

The truth was spoken by Michael Lombardi recently when he said that Seahawks have one of the least tallented rosters in the NFL in 2010. This assessment was made just a few days ago, after the 53 man roster for 2010 was finalized.

I agree with Lombardi. I would simply add that this is precisely what you would expect in year #1 of a comprehensive rebuilding project. I can also tack on the good news/bad news that you will be in position to claim your next franchise QB: Jake Locker.

The Rams

This brings us to the Rams... My specialty. Folks, no man walking the face of the Earth is a bigger heathen, atheist, skeptic, apostate, non-believer in the Rams rebuilding program than I am.

I have said many times that selecting a surgically repaired QB, with the #1 pick, giving him an 80/50 million contract, and putting him behind a crappy offensive line is the dumbest rebuilding plan I ever heard of. Certainly, only a very, very foolish man would execute such a plan. Certainly, there is no such fool currently occupying any of the 32 NFL GM seats! This is the reason I was absolutely certain the Rams would not select Bradford in the 2010 draft.

Words cannot express how my mind boggled when it first began to dawn on me that Devaney was serious about doing this. The horror... the terror... the dread... Nothing could stop him either. Devaney was fixated. When you add in the fact that Devaney passed on Ndamukong Suh to launch the Jim Plunket 2.0 story...

Why don't you just drive a truck off a high mountain cliff? How about that strategy for rebuilding the Rams?

Now with all that said, it would appear that Sam Bradford is validating Devaney's decision to take him #1 overall in the 2010 draft. Thus far, Scorpio is looking very good. He looks a whole hell of a lot more like Peyton Manning than JaMarcus Russell. Of course, no one in his right mind expected Bradford to be a Russell. The question is whether he can stay alive, not whether he has tallent or is motivated. I would still bet on the Plunkett outcome.

In the meantime, Bradford is making Devaney look like a loony-toon mad genius.

The key challenge for the Rams in 2010 is to validate the decision to draft Sam Bradford. Let's remember Herm Edward's Law. Having a franchise QB is supposed to equal 4 more victories. The Rams need to finish 5-11 to make the 2010 draft look good. Is this possible? Tentatively, I will say yes, it is possible.. mostly because of the spiraling collapse of the NFC West.

The most surprising story of the 2010 preseason, in my book, has been the Rams sudden offensive strength. The Rams only got toasted in one game: a 28-7 loss to the Vikings. The rest were all victories. In game 3 the Rams popped 36 points on the Patriots. In game 4 the Rams popped 27 on the Ravens. That ain't easy to do folks.

Let's remember that the Rams were 32nd out of 32 teams in offensive point production in 2009. The Rams scored a total of 175 points in 16 games, or 10.9 points per game. The Rams were shutout by both the Seahawks and the Redskins. Both the Seahawks and the Redskins finished in the bottom 6 of the league. How did this team pop 36 on the Patriots? How did they pop 27 on the Ravens? More shocking than this, how did they do that without Steve Jackson in the lineup?

Certainly a lot of the credit belongs to Sam Bradford, but...

More surprising than that was the aggressive play calling of Pat Shurmur. He must have heard folks like me calling for his public Crucifixion. Our cries for blood have been fueled by Shurmur's pathologically conservative play calling. In 2009, you could describe Shurmur as the Anti-Peyton. Well... not during the preaseason of 2010. We can only hope Shurmur keeps it up. Aggression is a beautiful thing in this context.