What went wrong...?

This morning, one of my coworkers approached me with a distressed look on his face. He said it was a shitty game yesterday, and he anxiously wanted to know what went wrong?

I quickly realized that I was speaking to a guy who didn't listen to anything I said last week. He lost some money to Vegas. Of this much I have no doubt.

"Nothing went wrong, the best team won. This was as the Madden 2010 simulator predicted; plus a little added margin for the pick-6."

"But all the Las Vegas lines favored the Colts", he said.

"Oh you mean they lied to you?" I asked, "You know they collect money when you lose, right?"

"But how could Peyton Manning play like shit on Super Sunday? How could this happen?", he rhetorically asked in distress.

"Did you know Manning's QB efficiency rating was 115.3% before he threw the pick-6? He played amazing football with the exception of that 1 pass."

"Yeah, but that pass killed the Colts!" He said in distress.

"Remember, a touchdown there only ties the game. The Saints would still have two options for victory; one in regulation; one in overtime." I reminded him.

"Yeah, but that put the Saints up by 14!" He said in distress.

"You lost money didn't you?" I asked.

He did not reply. The looser gamblers are in a recriminating, back-biting state of denial this lovely morning. This is because the gambling bill is going to come due soon. 68.5% of all the dollars bet on the Super Bowl were won by the sports books in Vegas. Did you ever have any doubt that Vegas would make money on this deal?

The best team won folks, and Vegas knows that. They played you for a fool. Nothing went wrong. The best team in the NFL won the game. It basically went as expected. Everybody on the NFL Network (except Moochie) picked the Saints to win it yesterday. They knew the Saints were the better football team. The stats will tell you that, if you know how to read stats.

Never bet money as Vegas wants you too. If you bet the Vegas line straight up and down each week during the regular season, you will lose money on most weeks.

I told you... damn it!

Right now I am pretty euphoric. I am overjoyed that the Saints have won it. I am NFC guy. The Saints used to be in West with the Rams. I alway felt bad for them back in the days when they were the Aints. I like the underdog. I also like Dome teams that play aggressive and spectacular offense. This precept qualified both competitors in this Super Bowl, in my book, but the Saints had an advantage.

Just to be clear: I was never against the Colts. I have a ton of respect for them, and greatly admire their great style of play. I would have been okay with it if the Colts had won. I just really wanted New Orleans to win. I would have felt terrible for them if they had lost. I feel bad for the Colts, but they very well could come back and win it next season. Just remember: They get Anthony Gonzalez back next season. Do you want to talk about having way too many weapons on the field? Jesus!

Congrats to the Saints. I am savoring it. I wish I had some vacation time and some money. I would love to travel down there for the party and enjoy it with you.

So the PredictionMachine.com 10% scenario came to pass. The Saints won it by 14 points. A little known corner intercepted Manning and returned it for the TD on what should have been the game tying score. I think I mentioned that as a possible Squirek Factor. Coach Dungy hyper-extended one point of data and broke his neck. Las Vegas will now collect 68.5% of all the money bet on the Super Bowl. They only need to pay out 31.5% of the shares. I told you the Vegas lines were fucking lying to you, you dumb bastards!

I did pretty well, personally. Although I did not bet on the game, I called this matchup in preseason and I've been declaring a Super Bowl victory for the Saints for the past 9 weeks. This should have been obvious to anybody who evaluates teams, and isn't overly awed by mystique. It was obvious to me that the Saints were a beautiful and very well put together football team. They played great team ball all season long. If you dynastanalingus commentators weren't so obsessed with the Saints' history of futility, you would have recognized that 2009 was their year also.

One thing I want to cuss the media out for: This game did not change my opinion of Peyton Manning at all. He is still the same great Peyton Manning he was before the game, and he may well go down in history as the greatest QB of all time, regardless of this game. This loss does not change his status in my estimation. Far too much weight is laid on these Super Bowl victories. Don't hyper-extend one point of data and break your neck.

In the meanwhile, I am very very happy that the Saints won. In my mind, I am partying with you guys in New Orleans. Wish I could be there with yah!

Let's reason about significance of Vegas for just moment

I happen to know a lot of betting men at work and through friends. They, like most others, have been swept up in the hoopla about the Colts during this past week. They have contributed towards that strange figure everybody is talking about: 68.5% of all SB44 betting money has been placed on the Colts.

I am proud to say that I have deeply troubled these betting men with my assessment of two great computer simulations of the game.

1. The EA sports Madden 2010 simulation which picks the Saints to win 35-31
2. The PredictionMachine.com simulation which says that there is a 79.4% chance that the Colts will not cover the 4.5 point spread. {Remember, the Colts have to win by 5 or more points, or you loose money.}
   

What ever in the world do these two points mean? First, let's recognize the most obvious fact: If Colts should happen to win by 5 or 6 points, there will be a financial bloodbath in Las Vegas. 68.5% of the betting shares will have to be paid out. This is at a time when Vegas is deeply injured by recession.

Fortunately for Vegas, the odds of a financial Bloodbath are very low. According to the most Colt-friendly computer projections, there is a 79.4% chance that that Colts will not cover the spread. Let's not forget that the Madden 2010 simulation picks the Saints to win straight up.

Just to refresh you memory a bit, PredictionMachine.com stated that the Colts won only approximately 51% of the matches in their 50,000 match series. The Saints won approximately 49% of the time. Less than 1 point per game differentiated these two teams, when all scores were averaged. In 60% of their simulated victories, the Colts failed to cover the spread of 4.5 points. I remind you that this is the most Colt-friendly interpretation of the performance data you will find.

The correct interpretation of this data is as follows: This is an unbelievably tight match up of equally great, and similar, football teams. There is a razor thin difference between them. This match could go either way, depending on the breaks. The odds of a laugh-in or a blow-out are extremely low. There are really only two ways we can see a blow-out in this game:

1. Serious injuries would have to be sustained early by one side.
2. One side would have to come out and lay an egg, really stinking up the joint with serious errors.

Most experts and the software do not predict either event. PredictionMachine.com says that there is a 90% chance that the Colts won't win by 14. It also says that there is a 90% chance that the Saints won't win by 14. Remember, there is only a 20.6% chance that Colts can even cover the spread.

Vegas knows this. Vegas has intentionally set the spread so that they have an overwhelming (at least 79.4%) chance of collecting that 68.5% of betting money that went down on the Colts. They are in this business to make money, not to lose money. It does not pay Vegas to pick the winner. Vegas wins when you lose. The spread has been set to pretty well ensure you will lose your bet on the Colts. Vegas wasn't built on winners. Vegas was built on losers.

With that said, it should be noted that former Colts coach Tony Dungy has stated publicly that he does not believe SB44 will be close. He says it will be a snoozer with the Colts winning by 2 TDs. The Colts will hold the lead all game long.

When asked why he thinks that, Dungy states that Vikings laid an egg with 7 turnovers, and the Saints still only won the game by a field goal in overtime. The Colts will not turn over the football 7 times. The Colts, on the other hand, wasted the most powerful defense in the league. Ergo the Colts deserve to be there and the Saints don't?

You'll pardon me for saying so, but this is the purest example of human bias I have ever seen. Not only does his paternal pride show through, but he hyper-extends just one point of data when are 17 others to consider for each team. There is a way to hyper-extend one point of data such that you break your neck and your back. This is what human biases do to you. Don't buy off on it.

Why I am not concerned about the Championship games and their outcomes? I'll tell you why:

1. The Jets sustained serious injuries in their secondary during the course of the AFC champions game. This is why their coverage broke down, and they were forced to stop blitzing.
2. The Jets may have been the #1 defense in the league this season, but that isn't saying a whole lot. There was no legendary defense in the NFL during 2009. The Jets' defensive statistics do not compare favorably with those of the great defenses of the past.
3. We knew the Jets did not have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Colts.
4. The Saints began to play in a very odd, and conservative manner once the Vikings began to turn over the football. It is as if their confidence rose to a point where they did not feel they needed to be aggressive or take risks. They were confident that the Vikings were self-destructing. They took it easy, presuming the win was in the basket. This resulted in a much closer match than I expected.
   
5. I expect to see the same Saint team we saw against Arizona. This is a Saint team that is greatly concerned about the scoring prowess of their rival. I expect the Saint offense to swing for the fences and attack ruthlessly all game long. They know they are going to have to outscore the Colts in a scoring match. Even if the Colts begin to drop the ball, I expect the Saints to attack viciously and relentlessly.
   

So there you have it. If you took the Colts and the points, you are a stupid sucker. The most likely outcome of this game is that the last team to have possession of the football will probably win by a last-second field goal in regulation. This scenario cannot result in the spread being covered.

PredictionMachine.com

As I was headed home from work today, I heard the manager/creator of PredictionMachine.com giving the results of his computer simulation of SB44 to the general populace of Southern California. What were they?

Predictalator ran the Super Bowl 50,000 times. Based on this simulation the following probabilities emerged:

1. The Colts won 51.4% of the matches
2. The Saints won 48.6% of those matches
3. The average score was 28-27 Colts
4. The Colts averaged 398 yards of offense
5. The Saints averaged 376 yards of offense
6. Manning threw for 306 yards
7. Brees threw for 258 yards.
8. Manning finishes with QB rating of 92.2
9. Brees finishes with a QB rating of 96.1
   
10. 5 Colts have more than 2 catches
11. 7 Saints have more than 2 catches
    
12. The Saints average 13 more yards in penalties.
13. The Colts fail to cover the point spread (4.5 points) in more than 60% of their victories.
    

Once again, if I were giving you some friendly betting advice, I would tell you to take the Saints and the points. The Saints won 48.6% of the simulations. The Colts failed to cover in 60% of their victories in this simulation. You gotta like them odds. You have a better than 75% chance of making money if you do as I tell you.

So what do I think of all this? It is plausible, but not as authoritative as the Madden Simulator. PredictionMachine.com gives us a lot of basic data that seems to make sense. The absolute final point of all this simulation is that this is an unbelievably tight matchup that can go either way.

Those who believe the Colts are a big-time favorite are suffering a world class case of human bias. They are being overawed by the ledgend of Manning at the moment when he is becoming recognized as the greatest of all-time. The first rule of accurate prediction is getting human bias, including hero worship, out of the picture. The nice thing about all computer software packages that they are not vulnerable to hero worship.

The numbers and the simulations speak loudly: This is an incredibly close match. It should be a heart-attack thriller.

The Squirek Factor

When the Madden simulator is so good at predicting the outcomes of the games, why do we still bother to play them? Why risk life and limb playing this dangerous game when we can predetermine the outcomes?

'Tis a specious question, but I'll give you one good answer: The Squirek Factor. What is the Squirek Factor? Let me tell you about The Squirek Factor.

Near the end of the first half of play in Super Bowl 18, Raider defensive coordinator Charlie Sumner anticipated a screen pass to Joe Washington. Sumner inserted a little known special teams linebacker into his defense, and ordered him to run right at Joe Washington, expecting this screen pass. That fellow was Jack Squirek. Sure enough, it was the screen pass Sumner expected. Squirek intercepted the pass and Waltzed right into the endzone for a crushing touchdown.

Later, in post mortem, experts pointed to the Squirek touchdown as the moment that ended the competitive phase of Super Bowl 18. From that point on it was an ugly route, from which no honor could be salvaged. Squirek played a season or two more and was never heard from again. He now runs a successful janitor service in Cleveland.

Super Bowl 42 was the last time the Madden simulator got the outcome wrong. There was a huge Squirek Factor in that Super Bowl. Deep in the 4th quarter, with Giants trailing the Patriots by 4 points, an obscure special teams Wide Receiver named David Tyre was inserted into the lineup. It is a crucial 3rd down situation. Eli Manning, running for his life from several Patriot defenders who seemed to have him cornered a split second ago, unleashes a long high-arc shot at Tyre. The pass is ugly and overthrown. David Tyre leaps about as high as I've ever seen a wide receiver go and makes a sensational catch. He does so with 10 time Pro Bowler and future Hall of Famer Rodney Harrison slapping the living shit out of him. Plaxico Burris would catch the game winning TD pass a few plays later.

By the close of the game, we all realized that Tyre's catch was the decisive moment in the game. Tyre made the catch that sunk the undefeated Patriot's dynasty. It is commonly considered the greatest catch in Super Bowl history. Tyre's catch was selected by ESPN's Chris Berman as the biggest single play of the decade of the 2000s. Rodney Harrison would later say, on an NBC broadcast, that he had had 6 surgeries due to damage taken in football. Nothing ever hurt him as much as David Tyre's catch.

Tyre played a couple more years for the Giants, doing little, and suffering several injuries. He was released by the Giants at the beginning of 2009. His catch was a massive example of the Squirek Factor.

Anytime a totally unknown player makes a crucial or decisive play which pivots the outcome of the game, and then disappears into the fog of history, we describe that play as an example of the Spuirek Factor. Everybody expects Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, or Dwight Freeney, or Darrin Sharper to make a decisive play in Super Bowl 44.

What if a totally unknown 3rd string offensive guard gets inserted into the punt return team for the Colts deep in the 4th quarter? What happens if this guy is not blocked, gets a free run at the punter, blocks the kick and waltzes into the endzone with the football? That could be absolutely decisive. That would be an example of the Squirek Factor.

What if a totally unknown 3rd string corner gets insert into the Saints defense with just 31 seconds left, only because of injury? What happens if Manning over-looks him because he is an unknown dude? What if said corner intercepts Manning on what should be the game winning drive? That would be a massive example of the Squirek Factor.

The Squirek Factor is the X Factor. It is the unknown and the unpredictable variable in the flow of events. It is the one bit of chaos space in an otherwise predictable world. It is the moment when unknown bench warmers get into the Super Bowl and do something sensational which alters the game.

This does happen from time to time.

There are three things we cannot predict in SB44. We can't predict who gets the Football first. We can't predict who will hold the football last. We can't predict whether there will be a Spuirek Factor or what that might be. These three things could still pivot the outcome of the game.

The Madden 2010 Similator predicts a 35-31 victory for the Saints in SB44

Each year since 2004, EA sports has simulated the results of the Super Bowl using their marvelous John Madden Football software. The set the system in CPU vs CPU combat mode, and they give the system a fresh load of the very latest statistical facts about team and player performance.

How good is the result? The Madden simulator has accurately predicted the outcome each and every year since 2004 with the sole exception of 2007. This was the year that the Giants upset the Patriots. Nobody called that one, and that's why we still play the games.

With the ever increasing sophistication of the software, the growing power of the CPUs, and every improving statistics, the simulator has been getting more and more accurate each year. In the past two seasons the accuracy of results of the simulator have been astounding

1. The simulator accurately predicted a 4 point victory for the Steelers over the Cardinals last year, missing the final score by only 1 point for each team.
2. The simulator predicted a 31-17 victory for the Colts over the Jets in the AFC Championship. It missed by just 1 point. The final was 30-17.
3. The simulator predicted a 34-31 victory for the Saints over the Vikings in the NFC Championship. Further, the simulator called for a last second field goal by the Saints. It turns out the Saints won 31-28 by a field goal in sudden death overtime.

Now Madden says the Saints prevail 35-31. Tomorrow, I intend to show you a simple spreadsheet of team statistics which demonstrates why that prediction is:

1. Totally reasonable and plausible
2. Exactly what we should expect from an unbiased simulation based on stats.

As I said to you once before: If you would like a friendly piece of betting advice, you should take the Saints and the points. Either the Saints will win it straight-up, or the Colts won't cover the 4.5 point spread. Either way, you will win money.

So Las Vegas is running away with the Colts?

So, shortly after the NFC Championship game finished up in New Orleans, I heard reports that the Colts had been selected by Vegas as the favorite in SB44. I was mildly surprised. I would have expected them to go the other way. It would appear that a lot of gamblers jumped on the Colts' ship immediately, because the point-spread increased 2 points.

Let me give you a wise piece of betting advice. Take the Saints and the points. You can't go wrong. Either the Saints will win out-right, or the Colts won't cover the spread. Either way, you win money.

Why is Vegas making his mistake? Maybe they are not making a mistake. The system of favorites and point spread is designed to attract roughly equal quantities of money to both sides of the equation. In this way, the house always wins. It is not important for Vegas to correctly pick the winner. It is important for Vegas to manipulate the numbers to maximize profits. Vegas wasn't built on winners. Vegas was built on loosers. If they lead you to believe that the Colts will win when they are about to lose, Vegas wins.

If you think the Colts are going to scarper off easily with the title, your on drugs. If all goes according to plan, this is going to be an ultra-shootout. The last team to hold the football wins. The common logic says that these are two offensive juggernaughts. But are they really both offensive juggernauts? Let me tell you a few things you might not know.

1. The Saints are #1 in the NFL in total yardage with 403.8 yards per game.
2. The Saints are #1 in the NFL in total points with 32.9 per game 510 total.
3. The Colts are #9 in the NFL in total yardage with 363.1 per game
4. The Colts are #7 in the NFL in total points with 26 per game and 416 total.

Clearly, the Saints have the offensive advantage. #1 is a Juggernaught. #7 is not. The Saints offense is almost 7 points per game better than the Colts offense. That is not equal, especially when you are talking about high scoring teams. What about defense?

1. The Saints are #20 in the NFL in Defensive yardage per game with 341 per game.
2. The Saints are #13 in the NFL in Defensive points allowed with 21.3 per game
3. The Colts are #15 in the NFL in Defensive yardage per game with 339.2 per game
4. The Colts are #8 in the NFL in Defensive points allowed with 19.2 per game

The way I see it, the Saints offensive advantage is larger than the Colts defensive advantage. Colt defense is basically 2 points & 2 yards better per game than the Saints defense. That is pretty equal.

So if the Colts defense is 2 points better than the Saints, and the Saint offense is 7 points better than the Colts: the Saints win by 5 points. Add & deduct; you'll come out with the same figure. I would suspect it will be closer than that. A last second field goal will make the difference.

So why favor the Colts? I have only heard two answers for to this question:

1. The AFC defeated the NFC 37-27 this season
2. Peyton Manning plays for the Colts.

Don't read much into the AFC/NFC thing. This is only true because the worst teams in the NFL are concentrated in the NFC. The Saints were 4-0 vs the AFC. They were not subject to this statistical rule. If you want to bet on the Colts because of Peyton Manning, you have taken a reasonable stance. I do not object.

Shortly after the NFC Championship game, Prime Time and the Playmaker were giggling to themselves about the pending Super Bowl. Prime declared that Reggie Wayne would run wild against the Saints Secondary, but it would make no difference. The Saints would kill the Colts.

Now wouldn't it be nice for Vegas if it worked out that way? You install the Colts as the favorite, a lot of people bet that way, and the Saints win. Vegas cleans up.

I don't think I would go so far as to say the Saints will kill the Colts, but I do believe the Saints have to be favored to win... Presuming you are not a Vegas bookie. I think they are the stronger of two very equitable opponents. I have a ton of respect for both of these opponents. We have the two very best teams in the NFL slapping iron. This is the best possible matchup. It should be fantastic and high scoring shootout.