Who are the NFL's most vulnerable teams?

As I mentioned in my last post, the actuarial statistics teach us that 5 or 6 football teams that were in the playoff tournament last year, will not be in the tournament this year. One of the nice preseason predictions we like to make consists of just who these teams are.

I realize that this is a bit out of order, since I have not done my AFC predictions just yet, but I thought I would list mine now.

1. The New England Patriots: As I mentioned in my last blog, the 3-time undefeated defending NFL Super Bowl champs... errr... sorry... that team that didn't make the playoffs last season won't make the playoffs this year either. The team that has not won a Super Bowl in 5 years lost way too many crucial pieces of the Super Bowl Puzzle this spring in retirements and trades. This is going to be a breakdown year. The Patriots are officially rebuilding now.
   
2. The Panthers: In a strange fluke, the Panthers were extremely strong last year. I guess it was because of their fairly overwhelming running attack. I doubt they will be so strong this year. They are also facing much more powerful opposition inside their own division. Look for New Orleans and Atlanta to sink their ship. This is the most obvious call on the board.
3. The Eagles: One theory says the Eagles are going to the Super Bowl and they are going to win. Bullshit. The team that went to the NFC championship last year had the #3 ranked defense in the NFL. If they had not had a single shoot-out game with Dallas on Monday night, they would have been #1. With Jim Johnson dead and Dawkins in Denver, forget about that defense in 2009. They will be ranked no higher than #15 defensively at best. Expect lots and lots of soap opera and melodrama between the Menage a Trios of McNab, Vick, and Reid.
4. The Vikings: The team that won the Central, barely won the central last season. This was due primarily to the tremendous weakness of their division. They got whacked immediately by Philly. No division is more upgraded than the NFC Central. No team has more Melodrama going on that the Viks. Believe me, they are in for an ass whacking and they will be home for the playoffs. I'm not talking about home field advantage either.
5. The Steelers: The Steelers did in fact have the worst offensive line of any team ever to win a Super Bowl. I absolutely concur with Jamie Dukes about that. I got bad news for you about that subject. They lost a couple of those guys in free-agency moves. Marvel Smith in SF, for instance. This is not good for Ben's health. You have my condolences, but I favor the Ravens this season. I think the Steelers can still make the playoffs as a wildcard.
   
6. The Titans: Albert Haynesworth's departure is a terrible thing. I believe Kerry Colins experienced a fluke year of sorts last season. I do expect a reduced level of competitiveness from these guys this season. Worse, I think the Colts got better through the draft. The coaching changes are interesting, but not as much so as we originally thought. I expect the Colts to win the division. I would be surprised if the Titans don't make it in, but they will have to take the Wildcard route.
   

The 2009 Vikings are the 2008 Browns

Last year the big buzz was about the Cleveland Browns. The Browns were the high fashion pick to win the AFC, if not the Super Bowl. They did not make it to the playoffs. They did not challenge the Steelers. The Steelers won the Super Bowl. Romeo Crenell got fired.

The Cowboys & Patriots were the favorites to meet in the Super Bowl according to most. Nope, neither one of them made it into the playoffs. Nobody favored the Steelers and Cardinals. If you had picked the Cardinals... I shutter to think of the consiquences of picking the Cardinals in the pre season of 2008. It would have been ugly.

The Colts and the Chargers were all supposed to be favorites as well. The Chargers had the worst record of any team to win its division. They upset the Colts who went 12-4, but were forced to take the wildcard route through the playoffs.

There is a lesson here: All forms of predictability have broken down. You cannot predict next years results based on last year. The continuity and consistency of teams has been irreparably compromised and destroyed by free agency. Whereas you could count on 6 to 10 years from a good unit in the years of indentured servitude. You can't count on anything now.

Now in 2009 everybody is buzzing about the Vikings. Mike Mayock, my most trusted advisor on the subject of talent, and normally the most reliable guy in the world, is also swept up in this mania. To be perfectly frank, he may even be the primary party responsible for it.

Well, I just want to go on the record here and say I don't believe it. Those who say that the team is loaded have a lot of explaining to do. The way I see it, the Vikings are team with only one legit superstar player. We all know that is Adrian Peterson. They have a modestly talented defense that does a hell of a lot with scheme and discipline. This is good, but remember: they are only modestly talented on defense. Jarred Allen may be the most modestly talented guy on this modestly talented defense, but he is no hall of famer. I do not believe they are a quarterback away from the Super Bowl. I do not believe Brett Farve is the last piece in the puzzle. I believe Brett Farve is beat to hell and utterly exhausted. I believe they have a better chance with the two QBs they have. To be frank, I suspect the Packers will be the team to beat in the NFC North.

Other teams I don't believe in

Patriots:

You know, once upon a time in the year 1980, I watched the two time defending Super Bowl champs, The Steelers, lose two tough games on Monday Night Football. They lost a big one to the next champs, the Raiders. They lost another big one to the San Diego Super Chargers. They finished 10-6. The Oilers 11-5, and the Browns 12-4 went to the playoffs. The Steelers stayed home for Christmas. I knew that was the end of the line for the Steelers. I was never concerned about them for the rest of 1980s. I just knew that was the end. I was right too. It was all down hill from there. I was very confident that that was the end of the dynasty. Many of the Steeler hall-of-famers continued to play for years after that. Still, they never did well after 1980. Chuck Knoll coached for 10 more years.

When the Pats lost Super Bowl 42, I knew that was the end of the dynasty. People have been talking shit about them going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl since the moment the Commish handed the Lombardi Trophy to the New York Giants. Do you realize how stupid you sound? I want to go on the record and say that I don't believe it. Especially now that Brady has had reconstructive knee surgery. A couple guys named Elway and Marino had this surgery. It took them two seasons to get back to something like their normal form. Neither were quite the same. I know the Patroit Dynasty ended two Super Bowls ago. That was the end of the line. Stop talking empty vanities and bullshit. It's over.

The Eagles

Please, bitch! The strength of that team was the defense; the Johnson & Dawkins defense. Both are now gone. The Eagles have done nothing to repair the breach. I am expecting a pretty sizable defensive breakdown from the Eagles in 2009. This Eagle defense will finish no higher than 15th in the NFL, dropping at least 12 slots from 2008. It could be worse than that.

"Oh, but the offense is greatly upgraded!" Let's wait and see how Michael Westbrook's surgically repaired ankle is. He is the West Coast back in the West Coast offense. He is the balls of the offense. They are not the same without him, and he has often been injured. I heard somewhere that he has never turned in a full 16 game season. If Westbrook is healthy and turns in 16 games the offense will be substantially upgraded. If he is not, forget it. All they did was tread water. Even in the best case scenario, offense wins games and defense wins championships. Forget the Lombardi Trophy. The Giants are way ahead of the Eagles.

Steve Sabol of NFL films had a conversion experiance about three years ago

I am a huge fan of NFL Films.  I grew up on them.  They taught me the structure and strategy of the game.  I owe a debt of gratitude to Steve Sabol for this.  However, Mr. Sabol has pissed me off many times.  It is kind of a love-hate thing.

Why?

The early portion of the man's career (late 1970s to the late 1990s) basically focused on mythologizing NFL history (both players and teams).  His myths are full of men of destiny who rarely or never failed.  Invincible juggernauts who could not be defeated.  Men who could snatch victory from the jaws of defeat despite major orthopedic injury, etc.  These are all miracle stories of a sort.  They are close cousins to tales of feeding thousands with 7 loaves and 5 fishes, or walking on water.  We love a good Paul Bunyon, Perseus, Samson, Hercules, Beowulf story, and so we sit transfixed and listen.

The interesting thing is Steve has been experiencing a change of religion in the past 3 to 5 years.  It would be hard for me to put my finger on the exact moment when his conversion happened.  Two different series of programs have manifested a fundamental shift in his goals and purposes.  The first is the "America's Game" documentary series.  The second is "The NFL's Top 10" series.

Both of these are hard documentary series.  Both of these try to do the most objective job possible of ranking important events and teams and players and facts about NFL history.  The focus is about who, what, where, when, why and how.  Myth makers are sitting on the bench.  Smart players who lived through it all are asked to be brutally honest about tough subjects.  Ugly flies in the mythological ointment are exposed.  Controversial subjects are argued well by many sides.  Some youngsters are shocked by what they see.  

This is especially true with the "America's Game" documentary series.  There are many youngsters who cannot remember the Steelers or the 49ers first hand.  They never saw them play during their classic eras.  I remember it first hand.  What these youngsters see of the Steelers and 49ers often shocks their minds.  They can't believe the real Terry Bradshaw was on the bubble for several years.  They can't believe the 49ers wanted to replace Joe Montana in 1988.  Their eyes bug out of the skulls when they see this.  I know.  I have dis-infected several true believers by showing them these documentaries on DVR.  Their reactions have been funny to watch.

This series plays like a Mea Culpa from Steve Sabol.  It is as if he feels he must correct the distortions of NFL history he created in his earlier life.

I love both of these new series.  The older I get, the more NFL history I know.  It is hard for me to believe that I have seen and understood every Super Bowl since XIV.  I saw a portion of XIII, but I didn't really understand what I was looking at.  I was just 12 years old.  I have watched (closely) every season since 1980.  I know this history first hand.  I lived through much of it.  I remember it well.  For this reason, the myth making thing has become very tired and very transparently false in many cases.  Lately, many myths, particularly those surrounding the Raiders and 49ers, have irked me a great deal.  For those who do not know, I grew up in Fresno California during the 1980s.  Believe me, I saw the Raiders and 49ers every week.  There was no NFL Prime Ticket or Super Fan in those days.  You watched what NBC and CBS showed you.  NBC showed the Raiders.  CBS showed the 49ers.  I know them well.  You can fool some of the people most of the time, but you can't fool me.