The 49ers? Bah! What rubbish!

Egads, you guys at the NFL Network are going to force me to unmask you as a marketing conspiracy. I would rather allow you to continue masquerading as a expert analysts giving unbiased information, but... allas, you are pissing me off with with this bullshit you pass off as logic and evidence.

Lately it has become a vogue meme to suggest that the 49ers are going to win the NFC West... Yes those Busch League 49ers are supposed to win the west again. That's the team owned by a woman named Denise. I know she pushes her son out in front of her and attempts to hide, but you know goddamn well Denise owns the team. Denise is a lousy, lousy owner; one of the worst in the league to be frank with you. She just doesn't have a clue.

The 49er theory so is patently preposterous, it can only be broadcast because the NFL Network is a marketing department of the NFL. You see, the 49er organization called and said they need help moving tickets. Ticket sales are pretty poor right now. The fans know what to expect. They are not excited. Since the NFL Network is a 100% wholly owned subsidiary, they are obligated to help teams implement their marketing strategy.

Folks, let's be absolutely clear about something: 2010 was the year the tires fell off the 49er rebuilding project. This is now a failed group, particularly on offense. There is hope for the defense, but they were not the elite group they were supposed to be last season.

Rather than this being the year Alex Smith turned the corner, 2010 was the year he went bust to the uttermost farthing. After 6 full years of basically nothing, it is impossible to pretend that this guy is a franchise QB or that he is going to turn the corner. Yet the 49ers are offering him a 1 year contract, and I'll bet you that they are going to try to roll with him in 2011.

You can just forget about the entire 2011 campaign if they go forward with this plan.

Maybe they are planing to lay-down and throw whatever comes of this lockout season in an effort to obtain Andrew Luck? Think about it folks. If they do lay-down, you sure as hell are going to look like a fucking fool for picking them. Think about it folks. You have a professional reputation to protect. You better think twice before picking these guys.

Rather than 2010 being the year that Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree finally developed chemistry, camaraderie and esprit de corp, you once again saw Mike Singletary drag them off by the scruff of the neck to upbraid them for fighting with one another on the practice field. Gore fights with Davis and critiques him sharply in the news media. Davis and Crabtree cuss each other out almost every practice, and they sometimes tie into each other.

This is an offensive unit with shit for chemistry. I am talking about rock-bottom levels of offensive chemistry. You need to break these bums up because they cannot play together. You need to ship them off for whatever you can get for them. You need to execute a full skill position rebuild on offense.

You might well have done that with new coach Jim Harbaugh at the helm, but then the lockout fucked you in the ass, didn't it?

But isn't Gore the reason they will win the NFC West? Folks, Gore has a pair of surgically reconstructed knees. Notice I said reconstructed, not repaired. He had full reconstruction on both knees. In addition to this, his 2010 season was cut short by a microfracture in his hip. If that weren't enough for you, Gore now has 7 full years in the NFL. The life expectancy of a running back is about 4 years. How much rubber do you think he has left on the tires?

Plain and simple: You are looking at a lost year. Good news though, you might be able to select Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft... if there is one.

Memo to the NFL Network: If you don't quit with the ticket-pushing lies, I am going to expose you, hardcore. I am not going to be nice about it either. I'm going to call you out by name an annihilate your fallacious logic and false facts.

Shout out to E. Stanley Kroenke: OYE! BUY THE DODGERS!

I am an old time Los Angeles sports fans: Lakers, Dodgers and Rams, but not in this order. It would be more like Rams, Lakers, Dodgers.

I may not be much of a baseball fan, but I am a committed Dodger fan. I don't talk about it much because we have had three years of absolute misery, minus an NLCS appearance. Wanna know why? Just read some news on dodgerdivorce.com. You will get the picture. It's pure hell, and our team is in limbo.

Today, I take back all the bad things I have ever said about Bud Selig. The guy stepped up to the plate like a man and executed a move that took some real balls: He seized operational control of the team from Frank McCourt. He did so on the grounds of financial mismanagement that sounded almost like embezzlement when read for the press. He has strongly implied that he is considering using his powers to force McCourt to sell the team. He can do this under several ownership contract clauses.

Selig made it clear that a flagship team like the Dodgers, the Dallas Cowboys of baseball, cannot be allowed to collapse into fiscal insolvency. The damage to major league baseball would be much too great. Amen brother.

Folks, I want you to know that several of us were dancing in the corridors at work when this news rang out. There was much rejoicing. Although he will never make up the distance now, Frank McCourt was drawing perilously close to Georgia Frontiere levels of hatred here in Los Angeles. That's a hell of a lot of hatred folks. I'm talking powerful hatred.

While the team is not out of his hands entirely just yet, we consider this an excellent first step towards organizational sanity. We love it.

Now on to the key point: Stan, we need you to buy the team. I know there is this little cross-ownership thing, but you know we can get around it. Ann can write a loan check to Josh and he can buy the team. So what if you operate through surrogates? No big deal.

The Dodgers would be one hell of a jewel in your empire. I know you want to buy the team. I am just here to give you some strong encouragement.

A long time ago in 1993-1994, a bunch of Rams fans like me pinned our hopes for better ownership to your band waggon. It took awhile, but it finally happened. A lot of Dodger fans are hoping for drastically better ownership than what we have had. If you buy the Dodgers, you will own two-thirds of the hearts of all loyal Los Angeles fans.

That's pretty good for the empire.

So quarterbacks are good if they are drafted in the first round?

Intro

You know how much I love the NFL Network. These guys are my evening house guests every night. Unfortunately, I am going to have to take exception to one big logical fallacy I have heard repeatedly in recent days. This fallacy is posed as a question and it goes a little bit like this:

“If the quarterbacks in this year’s draft are so bad, why are so many of them going to be drafted in the first round?”

The answers are incredibly obvious, but let’s do a bit of reductio ad absurdum just for fun. You know I just loved that reductio ad absurdum to death. This is the force that made my UCLA degree worth more than $0.25 thimble full of coffee. It’s more fun than a barrel full of monkeys.

Implicit within the NFL Network’s argument are the following key points:

• A player must be good to be taken in the first round.
• Conversely, if a player is taken in the first round, he must be good.
• If a bunch of teams are considering a QB in the first round, they must be impressed by the good quality of this year’s crop.
• If a bunch of QBs go in the first round, it must be a good QB year.

Fallacious! Fallacious! Fallacious! This is bogus false reasoning, and completely erroneous also. Fallacious reasoning doesn’t always guarantee a false conclusion; it just means your logic is bad. In this case, the logic is bad and the conclusion is absolutely false. What is the real story?

Rebuttal

Rather than simply stating the obvious let’s do this catechistically. I’ll phrase my answers as questions.

1. If Andrew Luck had come out of Stanford this year, who would be the #1 QB in the 2011 draft?
2. How many teams need a QB this year?
3. If we had had a normal free agency/trade period would all of these teams be in need of QB as we approach the draft?
4. If free agent QBs such as Mark Bulger had flown free, would the Cardinals be looking for a QB right now?
5. If QBs such as Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb were on the trading block, would the Vikings and 49ers be looking for a QB right now?
6. If Vince Young had been released, would QB demand in this draft be absolutely unchanged?
7. If Carson Palmer (whose Bengal jersey I am wearing right now) had not abruptly pulled up stakes and retired, do you think the Bengals would use the #4 pick for QB… if they get a shot at it?
8. There are several brand-new first year coaches who have no quarterback to speak of. Several are in near-rebuilding situations. Jim Harbaugh, Leslie Frazier, Mike Munchak and Huge Jackson are in this situation. {Incidentally, the Raiders need a QB, and they don’t want to admit it.} Would QB demand be unchanged if you didn’t have new coaches, hoping for a good start?
9. Do you think the lockout and lack of free agency has had zero impact on club plans in the 2011 draft?

The Solution Set

Folks we live in a time of remarkable NFL crisis. About 10-12 teams need a QB. There is a chronic and serious quarterback shortage in the land. The handful of available (and competent) QBs are quite literally locked out of reach of the needy beggars who want them. The desperation is building. It is palpable and it is visceral.

Against all common sense, many teams are considering the chicken switch (reaching for a 2^nd rounder in the 1^st), but this does not prove that this is a good QB class. Taking an undraftable red-light kid in the 1^st round is not indication that this is a good year. The fact that desperate fools are going to hit the chicken switch is no measure of talent.

Brian Baldinger is quite correct when he says that you’re taking a big risk if you wait for the second round. There might not be anything there for you when the time arrives. Certainly, you will curse the football gods if this happens to you. However, just a few years down the road, you may be counting this event as one of the best things that ever happened to you.

My Perspective

I wouldn’t take Ryan Mallett. I wouldn’t take Cam Newton. I would take Blaine Gabbert, but the price is outlandish. If he hits, it will look like genius. I love second round QBs, but I like my 2^nd rounders in the 2^nd round; not the first. I would love to get Christian Ponder in the 2^nd. I would love to get Andy Dalton in the 2^nd. If you give me Dalton in the 3^rd, I’m going to jump through the roof. I am intrigued by Colin Kaepernick, or are we calling him Optimus Prime now?

Charnak and the Wonderlic have scared me regarding my favorite kid Jake Locker. Nevertheless, I would still take the risk on this kid. I think Jake Locker is a lot better than Kyle Boller.

All the more reason to reach #5 and select A.J. Green

Just a quick thought before I run out the door to work

If you watched the Schedule Release show on the NFL Network last night, you know that Rich Eisen tapped Kurt Warner on the shoulder, designating him the messenger with bad news for all Ram fans. Just what is that bad news?

We have what appears to be a very tough schedule, especially up front. Although my little brother from another mother described the end of the schedule as tough, he was just plain wrong about that. The end is very do-able. It is very tough up front, but relatively easy down the stretch.

Those first 8 games contain some zingers.

I will do a detailed breakdown of the schedule at a later time. I just want to make one point for GM Billy Devaney. We can scream and cry about having to face the last four (5?) world champions, or we can point a loaded shotgun at them. Now which do you want to do?

I will give you one undeniable fact that no one can avoid: We won't beat a single one of these teams unless we score more points than they do. I assure you, my logic is infallible. I challenge you to disprove that statement.

So how do we score more points than the Ravens, the Packers, the Saints, and the Steelers? We better make their defenses sweat. Believe me, I know this is no mean feat. How do you make the Raven, Packer and Steeler defenses sweat? I will guarantee you this: Without a major upgrade at the WR position we will never make them sweat. They will shutdown the guys we have and blitz the hell out of Sam.

I know you don't want that anymore than I do.

The solution set is clear: We need to get up that board and select A.J. Green. Putting Green in front of Bradford is the moral equivalent of pointing a 12 gauge shotgun at these defenses. Now we'll give them some problems. Now we'll give them something to worry about.

I've said it a hundred times and I'll say it again: Nailing a deadly receiver is the first and most important task that we have to accomplish in this 2011 Draft. A.J. is worth whatever he costs us. Getting A.J. is the first and best use of our ammo in this 2011 Draft.

I would be talking deal with the Cardinals furiously right now.

Rams and Cowboys talking trade again?

For about 11 days now, rumors of a trade between the Rams and Cowboys have been circulating on various sports sites around the web. According to my best research guess, this rumor was first offered by John Lorge on 4/8/2011 on a BleacherReport.com mock draft. Since then it has been gathering steam in various and sundry quadrants.

Todd McShay, member of the world-wide eatter of shorts, added his voice to these rumors right around April 14/15, saying that his sources reported that discusions were taking place. Since then, many Cowboy sites have eagerly endorsed the deal. Many Ram fans have also embraced the news.

Strangely, famous St. Louis sports writer Howard Balzer doesn't really like the idea. He hasn't really qualified his objections.

Just what is the idea precisely? The Rams eMail the Cowboys the 14th and 78th picks in the draft and get the 9th pick in return. This puts the Rams immediately in front of the Redskins, meaning they can't fuck us out of Julio Jones. The Cowboys get to nail their favorite prospect (possibly Corey Liuget) at a much more reasonable price, and they get a 3rd rounder for their trouble.

On the surface, it is hard to find any fault in this deal. The Rams get what they need, and the Cowboys get what they need. Good deal for both sides.

It wouldn't be the first time Billy Devaney did a deal with Jerry Jones. We traded trash last year in a deal that was not particularly good for either side. We both went into that deal with eyes wide open. Neither side had unreasonable expectations about the quality of that deal. We were both unloading dead-weight.

While I applaud the effort at a deal, and while I would welcome Julio to the Rams roster, I am not sure this is exactly the right deal. The cost is not an issue. The price is reasonable. The issue is draft position. I am not sure this puts us high enough up the board to get what we want.

As I have said several times, I am not concerned about the Redskins selecting Julio Jones. WR is a deep 3rd place need for the Skins. This is Liar's Poker season, as Mike Lombardi calls it. All Redskin signals in Julio's direction are false. Believe me, they need a QB before they need to take a WR. They also need defense like a dying man in the desert needs water.

I am very concerned about teams higher than the Redskins, namely the Bengals and the Browns, selecting both A.J. Green and Julio Jones. We may reach #9 to no avail. This would suck. This would allow us a very nice choice of defensive players, but this is not what we had in mind when we traded up.

Despite the fact that the Cardinals are in our division, I would be talking deal with them. The Cardinals are the team most likely to get fucked out of everything they want in this draft.

Both Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert are trending very high right now. They could easily be gone before #5. I could see Miller going #2 or #3. I can see Gabbert going #1 or #4. If the Cardinals can't get what they want at #5, they might be primed for a deal to move down.

The #5 pick would have a ton of value for the Rams. I would give up the #14 and teh #47 pick to get it. This could potentially yeild either A.J. Green or Julio Jones. This is a very nice position to be in. We just might select the pick of the litter at #5. You know I would love that.

I would say that the number 5 slot is the one we want.

Tragedy in Carolina

Folks, it looks like the Panthers are going to be next team to step up to the plate and make a tragic mistake. They're going to gamble on a quarterback, and the one they are focused on is not a good gamble. I feel bad for my buddy Eric. We've been talking football for four years now, and he is a big Panther fan. Last year, I went through this hell, but it was nothing compared to what he's going through now.

So why am I down on Newton? Setting aside the fact that his daddy is a deliverance pastor who asks for college bribe money, setting aside the cheating on tests at Florida, setting aside the stolen laptop, setting aside the bailout from Florida just ahead of the posse, setting aside the one-year wonder thing at Auburn, setting aside the bailout from Auburn just ahead of the posse, forgetting about both entertainers and icons, dismissing the 21 on the Wonderlic, we still have to deal with the Gruden thing.

Jon Gruden has reprised his lovely role in ESPN's quarterback-shakedown series this year, and Newton was the most recent kid to show up on the show. It did not look good to me folks. Boggies were showing up on my radar. Mike Florio put it succinctly when he said "Newton comes to the NFL with zero knowledge or experience regarding the way that offensive plays are constructed and called"

Folks, it ain't often that Mike Florio and I see eye-to-eye. We do this time. His conclusion is the logical one based on the evidence we saw. I saw a guy who was painfully uncomfortable with the entire situation, and painfully trying to smile his way past the agony of it. That's not good. My hair was on fire during that segment. If you compare and contrast that to the cool/easy competence that Blaine Gabbert showed in Moochie's "Game Changers" chalk-talk, we're talking about a led vs. gold comparison here.

Mel Kiper Jr. recently said that Clausen's appearance on Gruden's show last year damaged his stock, and promoted his slide. Folks, Clausen did a much better job in his Gruden interview than Newton did. My hair wasn't on fire during the Clausen segment. It was during the Newton interview. I think this one ranks at the tops of my "Politically Damaging" pre-draft events.

I'm not saying I'm sold on Gabbert as the top pick in the draft, but if you have determined that QB is your greatest need, you would be suicidal to select Newton ahead of Gabbert. You are certifiable if you make that choice.

This is reflected the most recent series of Scouts Inc Top 32 rankings. Gabbert is headed north. Newton is headed south. Gabbert was ranked at #8, he is now at #5, although his score of 96 has not changed. Newton's score has dropped by single point (from 94 to 93), and he has now slid from #12 to #16. This is Gruden's work for sure. Gabbert is probably rising because he acquitted himself very well on "Game Changers" and Gruden's show.

Nevertheless, the Panthers are signalling that they are preparing to make a tragic mistake. Just about all Mock drafts published recently reflect their signals, showing Newton as the #1 pick. Against all reason, they are preparing to fuck themselves in the ass. It's going to cost them 5 lost years folks.

Highly respected voices on NFL Path to the draft support this move. Guys like Charles Davis and Bucky Brooks defend this move, offering feeble justifications for it. "You have to take a chance on Greatness." "Playing it safe with this pick will just land them right back in this same spot next year."

I know why.

In boxing, it used to be common to use a term called "The Great White Hope". The term reflected White America's desperate craving to see a white guy reclaim the heavy weight championship of Boxing. Each time an untalented white dude would emerge in the heavy weight ranks, he would become the focus of tremendous marketing hype. A guy who was not really a contender became a contender. We knew he didn't have the stuff to defeat Muhammad Ali, Larry Holmes, Mike Tyson or Evander Holyfield, but he got the hype anyway.

The same phenomenon exists in Black America vis-a-vis NFL Quarterbacks. Black America desperately craves a great NFL Quarterback. What do we mean by great? A multi-time Super Bowl champion powering a dynasty, and a QB ranked at the top of the efficiency charts. The last great Black hope was Donovan McNabb, but with Donovan's career in limbo, someone else must fill the void. Newton is the 'born at the right time' guy who seems to have captured Black America's imagination, despite the fact that Michael Vick is much closer to the goal. Guys like Davis and Brooks seem so infatuated with Newton's physical prowess, that they are overlooking clear yellow & red flags. Davis and Brooks never do that under ordinary circumstances. They aren't doing that with Ryan Mallet who also has red-flags.

An unbiased observer can tell that this guy doesn't have what it takes to handle Ali, Holmes, Tyson or Holyfield (read: Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even Vick) but he is getting the hype anyway.

I am sure you can capitalize on this hype in the short run. This hype can and will sell a lot of tickets at the box office. If this is the only goal the Panthers have in hand at the moment, they can succeed. For those who want to win? Well... uhhhhmmm... Maybe, maybe not.

Charley Casserly recently said "I could have 25 shots at drafting Cam Newton and I would pass on him 25 times."

Consider this well before you make a mistake.

Hallelujah! I am sure glad my Rams don't need a QB this year. It is just so damn good not to need a QB in the 2011 NFL Draft! I can hardly describe to you how good it is not to need a QB this time around. I tell you, Billy Devaney's 2010 call is looking better and better all the time.

A few bits of Ram-News

The Rams play the Bears in the Hall of Fame Game?

Maybe... We'll see. This is a classic example of counting your chickens before they are hatched. We need to get out of this lockout first. Many think this lockout will persist until we miss a few pre-season games. When the paychecks go missing and the box office recipes are wiped out, the two parties will come together quickly.

A few months ago, I speculated that this might be the first Hall of Fame induction not accompanied by a Hall of Fame game. I didn't even suspect my Rams would be tapped on the shoulder to play in this game. We may be the first team (along with the Bears) to miss a scheduled game.

The Rams Select Corey Liuget?

Maybe... I would be disappointed although there is nothing wrong with this kid. I am not super-familiar with Liuget. I never saw an entire Illinois game during his tenure there. I have seen him on YouTube videos. He looks pretty damn decent. I like him a lot better than Nick Fairely. He seems like a good guy. He would answer a need. I think Spags will like him very much.

It is important to recognize that this selection will not answer our most pressing needs. It is important to realize that this choice will force a choice in the second round that we may not like, especially in the long run. You need to think two moves ahead, chess players. Always think two moves ahead.

The Rams select Aldon Smith?

Maybe... I like Aldon. He reminds me a lot of the best of Charles Haley; hopeful not the worst. Charles is a guy on my top 25 defenders of all-time list. Yes he was a psycho-asshole, but he was a destroyer. Hopefully, Aldon will just be cocky, and not a psycho-asshole.

It is important to realize that Aldon will only fill a need if he stands up and plays the roving Elephant Linebacker who blitzes. I could get excited about this pick if Spagnuolo will use him in this fashion.

Nevertheless, he also sets us up for a second round choice that we may not like.

The Rams select Jon Baldwin in the second round?

If we're lucky... and stupid... Let's face the facts folks. If we don't bust a move to get up the draft board and nail one of the top two receivers in this draft, there is only one other candidate with game-changer potential. That fellow is Jonathan Baldwin of the Pittsburgh Panthers.

Baldwin has massive physical tools. He has all the ability of a Brandon Marshall. Unfortunately, he has the reputation for being both a diva and stupid. According to leaks, Mike Mayock has said that the diva rep is very well earned. He was not the most articulate dude I've ever seen in the interviews he's done, hence he did not disabuse me of the stupid rep.

The last thing we need is a goddamn diva. If we are going to get a diva, let's get Chad OchoCinco the second the Bengals kick him. This is the only WR diva I ever liked.

What about Greg Little of UNC?

Better... but I am still not crazy about this choice. Good luck in getting him, folks. Rumor has it that he is moving up the board and may be going bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd round. I don't think he's in play where we draft in the 2nd.

In Conclusion

I just don't see this being a successful draft unless we bust a move to get up that board. One of the several reasons I did not want to select Sam Bradford last year is because I did not think we would arm him appropriately. Making any of the moves listed above constitutes a partial fulfillment of that prophecy.

It is important for us all to understand that the organization has a #1 pick and a $50 million dollar investment in Sam. To make that investment workout for us, we must make the big investment in a receiver this year. Our prior investment won't work out for us this year without that big sacrifice.

I like our chances of getting quality linebackers and defensive tackles much better than our chances of getting quality receivers in free agency... when that happens.

I would prefer getting Albert Haynesworth as a 1 year stop-gap solution to getting Chad OchoCinco as a 1 year stop-gap solution. I would rather bring in Chase Blackburn of the Giants than Domenik Hixon of the Giants.

Let's fix up our defense in free agency. Let's fix our offense in this draft.