Saturday, June 27, 2009

The Odds of winning SB44, Feb 2010 in Dolphin Stadium

So guess what? It appears that Vegas has just published its deep preseason verdict on the 32 franchises of the NFL. The Las Vegas odds of your team winning SB XLIV were just published by TheSpread.com. I am laughing my ass off. These little fuckers will never learn will they? I just blogged that all forms of predictability have broken down. I used their choice of Dallas vs. New England last year as the ultimate example of the folly of their method. Guess what? The little fuckers just went and did it again. I guess there is no fool like an old fool. The man assigned to pick the Super Bowl in preseason has been given a fools errand.

Guess who the favorites are to reach and win the Super Bowl? If the Odds makers are correct, New England will meet Dallas for the second straight year in the Super Bowl... er... they didn't play last year? You mean neither of these teams even qualified for the playoffs last season? But they were supposed to meet for the championship? How did the Cards get past Dallas? But... But... But... New England was supposed to go 16-0 again due to the weakness of their schedule?!?!? What happened?

You guys were full of shit, that's what happened. I know yah like to thank yo shit don't stank, but lean a little bit closer see your predictions smell like poo-poo-poo. Your predictions really smell like poo-poo-poo.

This all reminds me of Chris Berman picking the fucking Bills and 49ers 8 years in a row. It never happened. He just couldn't get off his obsession. Likewise for Vegas. Does anybody remember how many times Vegas picked the Raiders to meet the Cowboys during the 1970s? I think they were picked to meet something like 5 times and 3 straight between 1976 and 1978. Do you know how many times the Raiders met the Cowboys in the Super Bowl? Zero.

Now the Giants have 10/1 odds. The Steelers have 10/1 odds. The Cards have 30/1 odds. This is only slightly better than Buffalo who has 35/1 odds. The Jets have 25/1 odds. This means the Jets are more likely to reach the Super Bowl than the Cards, despite playing in the same division with the biggest favorite. How the fuck does that work?

The biggest long shots on the board are Kansas City and Detroit. Both have equal 100/1 odds. The next lowest odds belong to the Rams and Raiders at 75/1. The third match of the Bengals and 49ers is rated at 60/1.

Let's just say that this is the most amazing crock of shit I have yet smelled cooking a crock pot. If you think the Jags and Packers have better odds than the Cards, you are smoking something. Vegas must use the PFA method.

Yes, I know that the Super Bowl looser's jinks is real and powerful and effective. I said as much here. This time I am in doubt. Further, I just don't see a really powerful competitor for the Cards in the NFC, save the Giants. I know I am going to piss off 14 NFC cities with this statement, but I think the Giants are the only clear-cut quality team in the NFC. I'm not talking about talent. I am talking about team. The fallacy of preseason predictions is this: It is based on tallent evaulutation, not team work evaluation.

I don't buy the Philly story. I think that is bullshit. I don't buy the Viking story. I think it is equally bullshit. The Skins have proven again and again that you can't buy victory. $100m for Albert Haynesworth won't change that story. The Saints and the Falcons are the most interesting prospects, but there are many reasons to be uncertain of them. In the West, the Cards are alone and extremely tallented. I think they switched on and ignited as a team unit last year. Their offense was borderline sensational. Their special teams were excellent all year. Their Defense was inconsistent during the season, but tremendous during the playoffs.

Cards vs. Giants in the NFC championship.