It's a wretched and disgusting Super Bowl this year

Are you excited about this Super Bowl match-up?  If so, your from Boston or New York.  That's all.  Only this and nothing more.  There is nothing here for a West Coast guy in Los Angeles to be interested in.

Couldn't be worse if you ask me.  This exactly the match up we didn't need to see.  This is the worst of all possible combo scenarios given our four contestants.  Now we have to listen to endless bullshit about Bellichick getting a shot at redeeming his erstwhile undefeated season.  We have to listen to endless bullshit about the Giants proving that SB42 wasn't a fluke event.

In short, it is going to be absolutely horrendous 14 day period until we can get this goddamn fucking sonofabitch bastard whore season over with.  The NFL Network's viewership is going down by one DVR count.  ESPN's viewership is going down by one count.  I won't be tuning in for any of this.

I'm watching the FoodNetwork, BioHD, and ScienceHD.

I don't need to listen to any of this hype.  I am not interested in the narrative you are about to weave.  I do not need to listen Boston yelling at New York and New York yelling back again.  It's an All-East-Coast food-fight just made perfect for goddamn fucking ESPN.

To all of the Sports Writers of America:  The Super Bowl narrative you are about to weave absolutely sucks.  I'm talking about a raw-red stinker of a lousy sports story.  Fuck you in the ass... twice... hard... with no lube!

I just might skip the Super Bowl this year.  The last time I did that, it was Super Bowl XXIV.  That was a good one to skip, by the way.  Horrible game.  Worst ever.

All I can say is this:  The Giants better win this game.  You know you will never hear the end of the fluke talk if you don't.  If you double-down and jam the Patriots a second time, it will be quite glorious.  You will be able to give Boston the finger forever more.

I have to say, it was an utterly disgraceful win the Patriots got away with.  You know the story.  Everybody has reported on it.  If Lee Evans doesn't drop the game winning touchdown pass, the Ravens go to the Super Bowl.  If Billy Cundiff doesn't follow that immediately with a shanked field goal, we go into overtime.  What a disgraceful and ignominious way to back-door your way into the Super Bowl.  This is highly characteristic of Bellichick.

This wasn't Joseph's fault folks.  He played well enough to win.  He didn't lose this battle for you.

You better be ready for the Harbaugh Bowl II

I have been increasingly sickened by the hype leading up to the AFC & NFC Championship games.  The drivel logic, poppycock reasoning, and bullshit theory I am hearing these days is the purest examples of East Coast bias a-la ESPN and Bristol Connecticut that I have encountered in the past 5 or 6 years.  It is ferociously disgusting and a violent abomination to the eye and ear.

I take great solace in the fact that ya'all are about to have 10,000 pounds of egg on your face.  Not a quantum of solace but great solace.  Better hedge your bets, chumps.

The AFC Championship

Let us begin (in alphabetical order) with the AFC Championship game.  All the fools of football are utterly convinced that Baltimore Ravens don't have a chance in this game.  Why?  Because Tom Brady is better than Joe Flacco.  Believe me, your reasoning is just that simple.  It ain't any better than that.  When confronted by your simpleton-logic, you may attempt to improve on it a bit, or simply defend it, but this is your argument.  Only this and nothing more.  

Well what about the rest of the teams in question?  It doesn't matter, you say.  Brady is better than Flacco.  The Patriots will win.  This is essentially the same argument that was made about the Broncos and Steelers.  Roethlisberger is a clutch guy and much better than Tebow.  The Broncos have a 0.00000000000000% chance winning.  You saw where your logic got you, didn't you?  Still you have not take corrective action and mended your ways.  You have not discarded the super-simpleton theory you cleave to, have you?

You are forgetting that this is always a team sport, the ultimate teams sport, and very seldom a quarterback dual.  One QB does not defeat another.  One team defeats another.  If you don't think so, you are absolutely and completely wrong, point-blank period.

Only four facts need to be evaluated to understand why the Ravens are going to win this game:

1. The Ravens have the most elite defense in the NFL, point-blank period.  It doesn't matter what the bullshit yardage stats say.  Four of the NFL's top 25 players are concentrated on that unit.  They are the best defensive unit in football.
2. The Patriots do not have anything approaching an elite defense, and they don't have anything approaching a top 25 player either.
3. When the Ravens play an elite team, they rise to the occasion and win.  They defeated playoff teams like the 49ers, got two wins over the Texans, two over the Steelers, two over the Bengals.   This includes clutch-QB play from Joe Flacco, who brought them back in the final moments against the Steelers.  When they play an inferior and rebuilding squad, like the Chargers, they have a tendency to look past the opponent and lose.  I don't think they are looking past the Patriots.
4. When the Patriots play a playoff team, they mostly loose.  Consider back-to-back losses to the Steelers and Giants.  They were also had by the Bills.  They nearly lost to both the Cowboys and Redskins.  When it comes to beating playoff teams, they have beaten the Broncos and the Broncos.  That's it.  An 8-8 squad that wasn't even supposed to contend this year.   The Patriots are not a powerful team, no matter what Bristol Connecticut and ESPN would like you to believe. 

Since the Ravens are not talking much trash right now, I will do it for them.  

Tom Brady will be checking his prostate after every play in the early going of this game, just to make sure it still up in there.  That's because the Raven defense is going to be knocking it loose.  This will cease sometime during the second quarter because Brady will have a bird's-eye view of that prostate after T-Sizzle shoves his head up his ass with one violent thrust.

Say what you will about Tom Brady, but I don't think he can throw the football very accurately with his head shoved up his arse.

As far as I am concerned, the Patriots are the longest of the long-shots still left in this tournament.  This is the one team that doesn't have a chance.  This game features one heavy-weight and one rooty-poot.  In case you were wondering, the Patriots are the rooty-poot.

The NFC Championship Game

After witnessing the massacre of the Patriots, we can move on to a truly epic contest:  the Giants vs. the 49ers.  Everybody knows this going to be the game of the day.  This is going to be the nail-bitter and the big drama.   This is the one where both teams can win.  This is the heavy-weight fight.

In terms of record, the 49ers are clearly the better team.  On paper, the Giants are clearly the better team. Eli looks like the better QB.  However, Alex Smith is astonishing everybody.  Both have very violent defenses.  The 49ers are much higher ranked, but the Giants are peaking right now.

I think the 49ers win.  I'll tell you why.

Everyone is talking about how the Giants are peaking right now, but I will tell you the dirty little secret ESPN is keeping in the closet.  The 49ers are peaking right now also.  They have never played better than they did in there last game.  Further, they are the more consistent team.  Finally, they are at home.

I think this is going to be an epic contest.  We have to muddle through a poor AFC Championship game so we can get to a real contest.  I am looking forward to this one.

In conclusion, you better be ready for the Harbaugh Bowl.  It's going to happen.

All I want for Christmas is to see the Broncos beat down the Patriots

...with savagery and ferocity!

Oh what a bleak season this would be for me if it were not for Tim Tebow and the Broncos.  This would be the winter of my discontent.  However, the story unfolding in Denver has made it glorious summer, and all the clouds lowered upon my house, in deep bosom of the ocean buried.

It's week 14 this week, and the Broncos will host the Bears.  However, week 15 is coming, and the Patriots will visit the Broncos in Denver on week 15.  We should not overlook the Bears, but remember, this is a team that could only muster 3 points against the Chiefs.  I guess that is still three more points than my Rams scored.

Congradulations, Coach Fox!  You are the beneficiary of my Christmas wishes this holiday season.  All I want for Christmas is to see your Broncos Godzilla-press-slam the New England Patriots.  Give the following facts,

1. Robust, powerful defense.
2. A vicious straight-ahead running attack with Willis McGahee
3. Tim Tebow getting his passing confidence back.
4. Your franchise's remarkable and continued success in the 2 minute drill

 I see no reason why you shouldn't stick it to them good.  I want to see a repeat of Shannon Sharpe calling the President's office with a request for military intervention.  Why?  Because the Broncos are killing the Patriots.  Go for the jugular!  Don't call off the dogs!

Incidentally, a quick trivia question for you: Who was the top rated passer (by QBR) in the NFL on week 13 on the 2011 NFL Season? Nope, it wasn't Aaron Rodgers. It was Tim Tebow.  Aaron had a QBR of 106.159, which is fantastic, by the way.  On the other hand, Tebow shot 158.19.  He was a fraction away from the cap.  He almost had a perfect game.

I told you he could pass.  Beware:  Tim is getting his passing confidence back.  Y'all are in trouble now.

The Mallett-6?

Most of us caught an ESPN production called the Brady-6 this draft season. It was about the 6 busts drafted ahead of Tom Brady in the 2000 draft. The Patriots terminated Brady's slide and the rest is history.

For a completely different set of reasons, Ryan Mallett fell out of the top 15 zone all the way down to the #74 pick in the 2011 draft. The Patriots terminated Mallett's slide. 6 guys were drafted ahead of Ryan Mallett in this 2011 draft. There are already some speculations about whether history is repeating itself.

Certainly, all 6 of these QBs could go bust. I doubt it, but it could happen. Guys like Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton would have to become medical busts for that to happen. Jake Locker would have to washout. Certainly a significant number of the guys drafted ahead of Mallett will go bust.

Mallett could get cut at any moment if he lapses back into drug use. Bellichick won't put up with it. Yes, Mallett is a prime suspect in the 2011 bust sweep-stakes.

We shall have to see.

As we all know, Bellichick hasn't won a single game in the playoffs since he got caught cheating back in 2007. Since then, his Patriots are 0-3 in the playoffs. Perhaps they can win a playoff game with Mallett at the QB.

Call me foolish, call me irresponsible, but Brady just hasn't been the same since Justin Bieber cut his balls off in public. I think Bellichick senses this castration and feels the time is now to begin preparing Brady's replacement.

Rich, I know you worship and Brady's asshole, but you can stick a fork in, coz he's done.

A serious contingency plan for the Rams... if worse comes to worse.

Let's suppose the Cardinals won't deal us the #5 pick unless we give them our #1 in 2011 and 2012. I agree with Billy Devaney, we shouldn't give up that #1 in 2012. That's just too much to ask. We don't know what the 2012 crop will look like just yet. We could be kicking ourselves from here until kindom come if we toss 2012 and it is a bumper crop.

Let's also suppose that Julio Jones goes at #6 to the Cleveland Browns, making a potential deal with the Cowboys pointless. Of course, this will really piss me off, but this scenario just might unfold tomorrow.

What do we do then? Roll over and die? I have a pretty serious proposition for this worst case scenario. How about this:

• Select Mike Pouncey with the #14 pick.
• Immediately contact Bill Bellichick and begin negotiations for Pick #28. The Patriots have already said that they are interested in negotiating with that pick. All sources indicate that this pick has a "For Sale" sign hung on it.
• The #28 pick has a theoretical value of 660 points. We'll offer them the 47th pick (430 points) and the 78th pick (200 points). This has a combined value of 630 points. Let's see if he'll take a haircut of 30 points. If he won't, then offer up the 145 pick, which has a value of 33.5 points. This shorts us by 3.5 point, but we can handle that.
• Bellichick will probably be looking for future picks. I would consider it, but don't give him the farm.
• With the 28th pick the Rams should select Greg Little, WR from North Carolina (UNC).

Some will complain that 28 is a tad rich for Greg Little. It looks like a reach. Granted, but not much of a reach. Right now, he looks like he's going bottom of the 1st top of 2nd. 28 is close enough to the bottom for my pain threshold. Let's remember that this is the hypothetical worst case scenario. Getting Greg Little is better than getting nothing, or Jonathan Baldwin.

I know Mike Mayock projected Greg Little as a middle 2nd rounder, which would be perfect for us at 47, but I assure you that the sea tides have changed. It does not look like the original projection is going to work out. Little is moving up.

If we were to work out this scenario, we would exit the draft with a blue-chip guard that we can plug in between Jason Brown and Roger Saffold. Brown, Pouncy and Saffold would make a formitable left side of the line. We would also have a potential star wide receiver, although he is a tad risky.

Essentially, we plug one hole at offensive guard, which is a serious need, and another hole at wide receiver, which is a crisis need. I don't like the fact that we plug the crisis hole with a somewhat risky choice, but you just can't have everything inside the worst case scenario.

Effectively, we would acquire two solid helpers for Sam Bradford and Steve Jackson. Steve will run better, and Sam will get sacked less. Sam will also have a better verticle threat.

There are other versions of this deal we might work out with Bill Bellichick. We might negotiate for that 33 pick (580) points, if Greg Little is still there. This deal would be a little cheaper, but not much. We would still have to give up 47 and 78, but we would get 33 and a 4th rounder in return.

The four teams in the AFC that won’t play in Super Bowl XLVI

Introduction

So, rather than focusing on the lockout, which began last night, I thought I would have a little fun this morning by sticking my thumb in the eye of the analysts at ESPN and the NFL Network. Why do a thing like that? Because they are a bunch of lazy bastards who always do the easy and non-controversial thing when making predictions about the up-coming season.

This leads to all kinds of error, and a complete lack of awareness of the tremendous changes underway in every off season. Without further Ado, here are the four teams that will not contend for the title in 2011… presuming we have a season in 2011.

The San Diego Chargers

I once again heard voices on the radio and the HDTV flogging the notion that Chargers are an Uber-tallented team that is long over-due for a Super Bowl victory. Don’t make me laugh. That ship sailed years ago. Forget about it.

What are you saying, Dave? Are you saying the Chargers are not an uber-tallented team, and they aren’t over due? Yep, you’re fuckin’a right that’s what I am saying. Why? How can you say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? You gotta be fucking kidding me? How can I say that?

· Because it isn’t fucking 2006 anymore, bitch. Get over it. Get some news updates about the roster and the coaching staff, will you please?

· Marty Schottenheimer is not the head coach of the Chargers. Norv Turner is the head coach.

· The Chargers don’t have L.T. anymore

· The Chargers don’t have Lights-Out Merriman anymore

· Soon, they won’t have Vincent Jackson

· GM A.J. Smith is the epicenter of some very ugly labor strife

Furthermore, I still have two words that categorically prove the Chargers cannot win the Super Bowl in this epoch: Norv Turner. Just in case you haven’t noticed yet, Norv sucks as a head coach. He’s a great offensive coordinator, and a terrible head coach.

The Pittsburgh Steelers

You know the statistical law: The looser of the Super Bowl doesn’t even make the playoffs the year after. This is one of the greatest, tried and true trends in professional football. Even the 16-0 pseudo-undefeated Patriots failed to make the playoffs in 2008.

Of course, this did not prevent ESPN from crowing those Patriots the Super Bowl champions in 2008 and 2009. Likewise, I am sure the Steelers will be a big favorite of the pundits in 2011. Nope, you’re all wet. The Steelers will not make the playoffs in 2011… provided there is a 2011.

The New England Patriots

I am sure the crew in Bristol is going into mega-conniption fits, pealing backflips and having babies as they read this line. Tough shit. Read it and weep, bitches.

How can you say that, Dave? Because it isn’t the first half of the 2000s anymore, that’s how I can say it. If you actually watched pro-football games instead of just looking at box-scores, standings and crunching a few numbers, you might actually notice that this Patriot team is nowhere (and I mean nowhere) near the quality of the championship teams that once dwelt there. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball.

But you don’t actually watch the games and/or notice how the teams play, do you? You just crunch numbers right? I watch the games, I crunch numbers, and I filter out bullshit hype. I am far better than you are.

Once upon a time, a long time ago, the Patriots won 3 Super Bowls. The last of those came some 6 years ago. This is an eternity in Pro-Football time. The team that plays in New England is no longer that team which won those Super Bowls. They may have the same coach. They may have the same QB. They are not the same team, period point-blank, no ifs ands or buts about it.

Do not call them a dynasty. Do not tell me this is a franchise with Super Bowl experience. Do not tell me that the coach and the QB are enough. Do not tell me Bellichick is going to reload in this year’s draft. The dynasty officially ended when the Commish handed the precious to the New York Giants.

It is now absolutely and completely over. The end was signed and sealed with the last three playoff tournament results. They failed to qualify in 2008. They made instant and embarrassing playoff exits in the first round in both 2009 an 2010.

The end. Turn the page. Close the book.

The Indianapolis Colts

Of all my predictions, this is the most dangerous one. Of all the teams picked to be a non-factor, this is the team most likely to be a factor. However, with that said, I think we have pretty good reason to believe that the party is in decline in Indi.

Why do I say that? As we all saw, the Colts suffered two major cracks in their juggernaut last season. Payton Manning was definitely not himself during major portions of the season. We saw a lot of interceptions and miscues that we have not seen from him since his rookie campaign. Furthermore, we saw quite substantial cracks in their defense.

Much blame was laid on injuries. Most voices chanted that pious cant. There was a small, but vocal minority that said it wasn’t so. Peyton had his chief receiver, Reggie Wayne, through the entire year. President Bill Polian laid the blame squarely on the offensive line, declaring that they just weren’t protecting Peyton. Although the line could use some upgrades, I did not notice an incredible number of sacks or pressures in the games I watched, or the compiled statistics.

We need to call a spade a spade: Manning had a bad year. We hope he doesn’t have two. We don’t know whether he will or not. He seems to be fairly deeply involved in the current labor unrest, and he refused to sign his tender. We don’t really know what he is up to in all this, but one thing is for sure: he can’t be allocating as much time as he usually does to off-season preparation.

But on to the defense… As Ray Lewis has correctly said, if you took Peyton away from the Colts, they would be a sub-average football team. I happen to believe Ray was speaking of the Colts defense. It seems that this unit has been perpetually suspect for 6 or 7 years now. Tony Dungy did everything he could to hold that unit together, but it was a high maintenance machine: It kept breaking down, especially in key moments.

I personally doubt that Jim Caldwell has what it takes to prop up the sagging Colt defense. I think this is the most important reason to expect a drop-off in the Colts’ regular season performance this year.

The upset of all upsets in this fluke year

Jets ruin the Patriots 28-21

So we have the final and ultimate confirmation that we are living in a fluke year. The odds-on favorite to win the whole schmahola has gone down in flames. The Patriots go 14-2 and then one and done. It’s all over.

This constitutes the 3^rd straight playoff loss for the Patriots going back to Super Bowl 42. I told you the dynasty ended when the Comish handed the precious to the Giants. You didn’t believe me, did you? That’s your fault, not mine.

You do remember that I protested the early crowning of Patriots don't you? You do remember that I spelled out in detail why the Patriots were very over-rated. I also picked the Ravens to do them, but that might have been more honorable than the Jet's doing them.

For the Jets, this only proves that he who laughs last, laughs best. I'm laughing like hell right now, right along with you.

Moreover, Tom Brady did not play well. He shot 29 for 45 for 299 yards 2 TDs and 1 Int. His efficiency rating was sub 90. Sure, that’s good if you are playing with a formerly 1-15 team that has no receivers, but this is not the canonized saint of quarterbacks we were so recently hearing about. The NFL Network started a new hype line suggesting we were going to have to openly declare Brady the #1 QB in the history of the sport just as soon as he completed his SB45 championship run. Smarts like hell doesn’t it pal? You took a hard shot to the shitter there.

In all seriousness, there is one guy at ESPN who is not crying in the depths of catastrophic depression right now. Just one, mind you. That man is Chris Berman. As you know, I recently chastised him for being a party to this pre-playoff crowning of the Patriots. He was, but in sooth, Chris is a big Jet fan. He always has been. He says he is a sports caster today because he was sitting in the bleachers of Shea Stadium New York when the Jets upset the Oakland Raiders in the AFL championship game. This was the one that set the Broadway Joe Jets on course to win Super Bowl III.

You know Chris is partying like its 1999 right now. I’m happy for you and I am happy for the league. Moreover, I will be very happy to hear Colin Cowherd try to beg his way out of this one. Cowherd is a bootlicking, servile, ass-kissing, obsequious, fawning, brown-nosing Bellichick sycophant, and I’m pretty tired of it.

You know there is going to be hell to pay for this, don’t you Cowherd?

In all seriousness, all of the Bellichick sycophants… errrr… sports reporters at the four-letter network should be subjected to four hundred hours of Chinese water torcher for this loss of objectivity.

The Bears smack-down the Seahawks

But I get ahead of myself…

There was an earlier game this morning, and in it, a couple of old Ram coaches drove the Bears one step closer to the Super Bowl. This was the only non-upset of the weekend, in my estimation. Lovie Smith and Mike Martz got the Bears to do what they were supposed to do, and they smacked the Seahawks.

I must say that Jay Cutler looked awfully good in this game. I guess this shows what a triangle of Taurus dudes can accomplish together. You got three bulls yoked together here (Smith, Martz and Cutler) and they have some real torque.

How good is the job Mike Martz is doing with young Cutler? If you compare the footage of this playoff game vs. Seattle to that of the Thursday Night game against the 49ers last season, there is simply no comparison. In that 49er game, Cutler was throwing the ball into crowds of red shirts for no apparent reason. In this one he looked like a damn fine QB. This is the Martz effect folks.

Mike Lombardi is fond of saying that few men are qualified to evaluate the QB position, and fewer still are qualified to coach that position. I think it time we say that Mike Martz is the best coach (still coaching) with this very rare talent. If Mike Holmgren were still actively working Colt McCoy every day, we would probably have to give him priority.

The Patriots? Bah… drivel!

The 7 time defending ESPN champs

So, unless you have buried under a rock, you know that ESPN has crowned the New England Patriots the Super Bowl XV champion… before the season is over… and before the playoffs begin. ESPN has crowned the Patriots champion in each and every one of the past 7 consecutive seasons. This includes 2008 when the Patriots failed to qualify for the playoffs. The Patriots are now the 7 time defending ESPN champs.

OH BUT THEY WERE RIGHT IN 2004, 2005, and 2007, and they were undefeated in 2007! Undefeated in 2007, aye? Tell that to the Giants who have big fat diamond rings on their fingers.

I’ll never forget the time last season (2009) when Chris Berman referred to the Patriots as the de facto champs. Q.E.D. quo est demonstratum. For those who complain that there is no east-coast bias at ESPN, you need some of the reality potion the New York Yankees are brewing a little south of your position. Like the Patriots, the Yankees are very close to Bristol. Grab some potion after work.

ESPN has a real bad tendency to get stuck in a groove. This is because the main man, Chris Berman, is a May 10, 1955 Taurus dude. Though he is my Earth brother, and I love the guy, I have to warn you that a Taurus like Berman is the most suborn and fixated character in the zodiac. The rest of the organization has modeled itself around his example. I’ll never forget the time Chris Berman picked the 49ers and Bills as his preseason favorites for the Super Bowl NINE years in a row! It took him almost a decade to give up on that one. I have heard rumors stating that he picked the Raiders v Cowboys nine time in a row back in 1970s. That didn’t happen either.

They say the only dude a Taurus will listen to is a Virgo. If so, I hope I can get this message across clearly, and I hope it will get some consideration. ESPN has been wrong about the Patriots 5 of the last 5 seasons. They have misidentified Patriot weaknesses as strengths in each of the past 5 consecutive years. This has lead to quite considerable error. Who can evaluate that track record of error and not see some form of bias back behind it all?

I’m not buying the Patriots

By now, you should realize that I’m not buying the Patriot theory. Why not? I’ve got some good reasons. Here they are:

1. This team is not the dynasty Patriot team. The one and only hold-over from the glory days is Tom Brady. That is not enough. This is practically an all-new edition, and quite unproven.

2. They just aren’t that talented. You will note that this team doesn’t have many Pro-Bowlers; just three Patriots were elected. Once again, coach Bellichick is doing a lot with a little. This isn’t as good a thing as some would have you believe.

3. Last year, the Ravens not only beat the Patriots in the playoffs, they beat the hell out of them. Until these Patriots prove they can beat these Ravens in a significant game, I favor the Ravens in the AFC.

4. The Patriots are benefiting from unexpectedly weak competition. The Dolphins unexpectedly collapsed in 2010. The Jets have been much weaker than expected in 2010. The Bills… let’s just say those games constitute two free victories for the Patriots. Tough games on the schedule, such as the Packers, turned out to be dramatically easier due to key injuries, such as the Packers’ loss of Aaron Rodgers. The Patriot win total is a little bloated this year, and deceptive.

5. Andrew Siciliano describes the Patriots as “a 10-6 football team with few playmakers, a suspect defense, who are vulnerable on the road.” I am sure he was referencing the spanking the Patriots took from the Browns. I don’t see much wrong with his statement. Though their record is better than 10-6, it might easily be 10-6 under slightly different circumstances. We all know how they creep down the field. You witnessed the way in which Matt Flynn, the backup QB in Green Bay, put more than 30 points on the board against the Patriot defense. The Patriots won’t have to go on the road in this tournament, but home field advantage didn’t help them much last season.

6. The AFC is the second best conference in the league. The dirty little secret we’re all keeping in the closet is that the NFC is now the better conference. The AFC just ain’t what it’s cracked up to be. The NFC won the lion’s share of key matchups between contending playoff teams in 2010. The NFC also contains two of the past three Super Bowl winners. Note that the AFC Steelers nearly lost to the Cardinals in a dandy sandwiched between two NFC victories; one at the expense of the “undefeated” Patriots. My bet will probably be on the NFC champion when SB45 comes around.

7. Our best reasons for believing in the Patriots are the things we’ve heard in the echo chamber, and the echo chamber is dominated by the North Easterners at ESPN. I wonder what the prevailing national opinion of these Patriots would be if we weren’t living in an echo chamber dominated by the North Easterners at ESPN?

I’m making a non-fashionable choice

I’m taking the Ravens in the AFC. If you want to crown their ass (the Patriots) then crown them, but the Patriots are who I think they are, and this is why their opponents should take the damn field.

Week One, 2010

I have been slow in finalizing my picks for this season due to the fact that Pre-Season didn't furnish me with much certainty about what would happen this year. It was kind of a blah pre-season as pre-seasons go.

Cheating though it may be, I will post my pre-season predictions after the double-header tonight. I will publish my final predictions sometime Tuesday evening. It is a good think I waited. Week one was full of surprises that shed light on the upcoming season.

The Bengals go pop

The Bengals v. Patriots game was the first bit of light shed on the new season. The Bengals are a team know for their booms and busts. They rarely follow one playoff campaign with another. This has been true throughout their history. Although it would appear that the Bengals increased their ammo supply during the off season, they sure played like pooh-poo dooh-doo yesterday morning.

Don't compare this season's Week-One loss to that of last season. The Bengals had a fast-starting Denver team beaten, on the last week one, when suddenly the Immaculate Deflection struck. The Bengals played very well in that game; more than well enough to win. They were just robbed by fate.

Let's make no mistake about this: The Bengals got blown out by the Patriots. This was never a competitive game. The Patriots knocked them out and stomped on them. The logical inference is not that the Patriots are strong in 2010. The logical inference is that the Bengals are going flat after a good season, just as they have in so many years prior to this one.

My conclusion is that the Bengals got stomped by a suspect and vulnerable Patriot crew primarily because Carson Palmer did not perform well at all at the QB position. Make no mistake, Carson has never quite lived up to his billing as an elite QB. Now he is looking more and more like Jim Everett 2.0; but not quite that good.

Going into this season, we all know that Palmer is on the hot seat. Right now Palmer is 0-1 when it comes to making his case in 2010.

The Bengals also suffered something of a defensive failure, but I think that was triggered by the inability of the offense to stay on the field and eat the clock, as they did so well last season.

The lesson I take from this is clear: The Bengals will not contend in 2010, and the Ravens have an even stronger position to launch a Super Bowl run.

What the hell happened to the 49ers?

How did the Seahawks crush the 49ers? Chris Berman said it best: "This, above all results today, has us scratching our heads." The 49ers are not a great team, just a good one. However, the Seahawks do not look anything like a playoff team to my eye. How the hell did the Seahawks destroy the 49ers?

What we saw was a full-blown system failure for the 49ers. They failed offensively, and Alex Smith did not look at all like a franchise QB. Unfortunately, they also failed defensively, allowing the Seahawks 38 points. How did that happen to this potentially-elite Mike Singltary defense? This I find shocking.

Don't read too much into this. As a famous New Orleans bluesman once sang: Even the Sun shines on a dogs ass some days. I have a hunch this may just turn out to be a fluke game. Last season, the Seahawks opened by crushing my Rams 28-0. They went 4-11 in the next 15 games and finished as the 6th worst team in the league.

The Jinx

The Colts are suffering the Super Bowl loser's jinx. What did I tell you about that thing? It is real and powerful and effective. During the deep off season, I shocked some people by making the Texans my favorite to win the South.

Right now, I think it is a two horse race: Titans vs. Texans. The Colts are bringing up the rear. I think the Titans have a distinct advantage.

The Giant defense seems much-improved.

Perry Fewell seems like the man of the our in New York. The Giant defense looked good yesterday, drastically better than last year. They victimized the Panthers as we would expect them to. If things continue to improve, expect the Giants to the lead the East for the duration of 2010.

Based on limited data, the Giants could be the best team in the East.

The Vick controversy

Let's just say that the Kobb era didn't get up and fly yesterday. I'll give you the two key reasons. First, Kobb looks like the second coming of Shaun Hill. Second, Andy Reid was calling a classic West-Coast game, and the WCO is an outmoded, outdated, obsolete offense that just doesn't work anymore.

You saw how easily the Packers were nailing the Eagles in the early going. I assure you, that was not because of the struggles of a young QB. That was because of the ease with which you can counter-measure the WCO system.

The second Kobb goes down with a concussion, and Vick goes in, the WCO playbook gets tossed out, and the Eagles begin to surge. Reid is a true believer in the WCO. He is not going to give up his religion without a fight. However, he would be best served to just let Vick play.

I am not a fan of the crazy gunslinger and the sandlot QB type, but that style of offense works better than the WCO does. It will produce more yards and more points and more gray hair for NFC DCs than the WCO will

The curse of Alex Barron

I hope you were watching the Sunday night game. It all came down to the final seconds. Tony Romo throws a game winning touchdown pass to Roy Williams in the right corner of the end zone. The Cowboys win! Nope! Guess again. There is yellow laundry on the green grass. Alex Barron, 6th year man from Florida State held mr. Brian Orakpo of the Texas Longhorns. Oh shit! Is that the ball game? Yep, holding #71 offense. That's the end of the game folks. Redskins win. Good night, and good luck.

The penalty was absolutely decisive. Without the penalty, the Cowboys win. With the penalty the Redskins win. The whole game turned on just one penalty. Jeezzzeee... I would hate to be Alex Barron right now.

You should have seen the Play Maker Michael Irvin on the NFL wrap-up show. The frustration! The exasperation! The anger! To quote Irvin: "I told him in training camp 'YOU SIT YOUR FAT BUTT DOWN AND BLOCK FOR 3 SECONDS'".

Michael was killing me. I was laughing my ass off. Play Maker, you do not know how many Sundays over the course of the past 5 years I have screamed at my HDTV "YOU SIT YOUR SCRAWNY ASS DOWN AND BLOCK FOR 3 SECONDS!" At 6-7 and 325 pounds, I think Alex is actually pretty scrawny. He has less than 10 pounds of fat on his body. You have to give him credit for that much. Nevertheless, I said essentially the same thing as the Play maker, about 875 million times.

I feel your pain, Mike. Furthermore, you are feeling the pain I (and all Ram fans) experienced for the past 5 years. I don't understand Alex Barron. He's got every gift God ever gave an offensive lineman, except intelligence, and he wrecks it savagely by committing all these stupid penalties. Herm Edwards claims that the offensive linemen are usually the smartest guys on the team. Not Alex. You cannot get this guy to eliminate mistakes.

Back in the deep off-season, when I made Dallas my mild-favorite to win the NFC, I worried about whether my Rams had injected the poison pill into the Cowboys' fuel mixture. This worry already seems like a serious concern.

I am sure Billy Devaney was sweating a bit after dealing Barron for Carpenter and then subsequently releasing Carpenter. Essentially, he gave away Barron of nothing. Then, when you see Barron in the starting lineup for the Cowboys... It doesn't look so good for Devaney. When you hear that former Ram coach Jim Hasslet, a guy you fired, is targeting Barron because he is sure Barron will screw up... Well... it's cold comfort.

Then comes vindication. Barron makes the decisive penalty play that costs the Cowboys a win in his first week as a starter. Awe crap... The Ram fans who didn't want to flush Barron--and there were not many of them--all looked at each other and said: "Maybe Devaney was right... this time."

The Rape of Detroit

Now for the truly egregious moment of the week! The Lions get a game winning touchdown pass without franchise QB Matt Stafford, and the Zebras take it away upon further review. Let's make no mistake: the Refs sodomized the Lions like a Jailhouse rapist going to work on new meat in the shower.

I am wearing my Calvin Johnson jersey and a black arm-band all day long. I am protesting this injustice.

I know you are going to quote the fucking rule book. That ain't nothing but good 'ole fashion communism. I know a touchdown when I see one, and that was a touchdown. He lost control of the football as he was standing up to go celebrate. That was a catch with full control in the endzone.

The refs are lucky they were in Chicago. In Detroit, they might have come down with a bad case of Columbian Neck-Ties.

What did I chastise Lion Management about?

Folks, when I was setting team goals for the Rams, pass protection and sack-reduction were of paramount importance. I sited Detroit as the perfect example of how not to do things. Matt Stafford finished his rookie campaign needing not one but two surgeries. Still, the Lions got him no viable pass protection in the 2010 draft, or in free agency.

I stated that this was incredibly stupid, and now look what has happened. I accused the Detroit management of digging the kid an early grave. Guess what? Detroit will not be getting up off the carpet in 2010, and they will not make a run. Why? Matt Stafford is out for the next 4-6 weeks with an injured passing shoulder. Don't expect him to perform perfectly when he returns. Expect another off-season surgery.

You see, this is what comes of Buttism. You cannot draft players based on how many seats they will fill. As much as I love Jahvid Best, it would have been better to take a Left Tackle.

Is Sam Bradford next?

So the Left Tackle the Lions didn't take (Rodger Saffold) is now a Ram. I have profoundly mixed observations about the Rams line, and mixed feelings about what I am about to say about them. The Rams line looked considerably better than last year in week 1. They still did not look like a high quality line. Usually, it takes 5-6 weeks for an OL unit to jell, and show signs of a little team work.

There are several questions. Will this line jell? If they jell in 5 to 6 weeks, will that be soon enough to keep Bradford healthy. Is this unit talented enough to protect Bradford?

You did notice that the Cardinals were opening some mighty big running holes yesterday, right? They kinda looked like the New York Jets last season. Awe shit! Look at the guy wearing #66! Is that Alan Faneca? Gheeze... isn't he that washed up dude the Jets released? Booouuuyyy! Look at dem holes in the defensive line. The HD video is pretty clear.

Man, wouldn't Steven Jackson benefit from holes like that? How are the Jets doing at the Left Guard position? Did I hear somebody say that Hard-Knocks exposed shitty performance for the Jets at the Left Guard position?

I categorically rejected all the absolute bullshit floating around about Faneca in the immediate aftermath of his release from the Jets. I knew it was a salary dump. I knew the Jets' management was spin doctoring with heaping helpings of disinformation.

What I have seen this preason...

The first two weeks of this pre-season pretty well blew past me without much of a notable result. Everything went exactly as I expected. In particular, Tebow flashed strong immediately, and the Rams offensive line flashed weak immediately. Other than that, nothing impressed me much in week 1 or 2 of the preseason.

That changed this week, and it is well it should. The third preseason game is the so-called "dressed rehearsal" for the regular season. I saw a number of things that impressed me a great deal. Let me count them down for you.

Javid Best is going to be the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2011

The kid is looking flat-out dynamic so far. I am seeing flashes of Marshall Faulk all over the place. The sky is the limit for this kid, and Matt Stafford can't be more overjoyed about it. Now with Calvin Johnson, Javid Best and Matt Stafford, I am wondering whether Detroit is going to get up off the carpet and make one hell of a surprise run.

I have been soooo impressed by this kid, that I have already purchased his #44 jersey in white. I intend to wear that Jersey for the very first time on September 2, 2010, to celebrate my 44th birthday. Congrats kid! You impressed me so much that you convinced me not to wear the Dallas Clark jersey, and I think the world of Dallas Clark.

The Ravens look like the Super Bowl 45 champions

You better watch out for these guys. They are looking scary. This could be the most impressive end-to-end team I have seen this preseason. The super-duper off-season the Ravens had impressed me a great deal. I made them the tentative-prohibitive favorite [if that makes any sense] in the AFC based on their fantastic off-season.

That high-quality off-season is generating tangible yields, right now, in the 2010 preseason. The Ravens look very strong to me.

The main problem with the Ravens these past two years has been their own internal distrust of their passing game. They have wanted to bring Flacco along slowly, not putting too much on his plate. Now they seem to trust Flacco and are willing to put the team in his hands. Now they are showing flashes of a dynamic offense that can throw well and run like hell.

They will also beat the shit out of you defensively.

This is a goooooooood looking football team. I am mighty damn impressed by these guys.

The Saints look more than prepared to defend their crown

There ain't no sign of a let-down in New Orleans. I must say, it does might heart good to think they might defend their title. If so, they will be the first NFC team to win back-to-back titles since the Cowboys did it in 1995. I have to say: It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of fellas and better city.

I am hoping you will pull it off, New Orleans.

The Packers look like they have a Hurricane offense, but a somewhat suspect defense.

The Packers offense look like the 1st Air-Cav division: death from above. Aaron Rodgers is shooting the lights out with a 141 passer efficiency rating. If you watch the film, he looks better than the rating sounds. I saw him make effortless tight-window throws against the Colts' [pretty elite] defense. He made it look easy, and those were not easy throws. 9 out of 10 quarterbacks in this league would have had trouble making all of those throws.

Aaron Rodgers will replace Payton Manning as the NFL's All-Pro QB and MVP in 2010 if this continues. There ain't no doubt about it. He is that good. There is a reason why he is the #1 guy in everybody's fantasy pool right now.

The one problem is a suspect running defense which has given up a number of big runs this preseason. I see some deficiencies in the fundamentals of tackling here. I saw visions of Vince Lombardi screaming "GRAB! GRAB! GRAB! NOBODY'S TACKLING!" You also need to be concerned about the fact that a less-than-physical Colts O-Line shredded your front-7.

I see flashes of the Super Bowl looser's jinx on the Colts

Folks, it ain't just one thing either. First, 49ers tie one on them. Now we see that the NFL has messed up the Colts' much feared no-huddle offense. Just as their running game begins to impress us all, Joseph Addai goes down with a concussion.

Understand that the Super Bowl loser's jinx began in the year 1970 with a Don Shula,/Johnny Unitas Baltimore Colts team. That Colt team was at least as good, and probably better, than this Colt team. You can argue they were better coached by Shula. Just immediately after going 13-1, that Colt team finished 7-7, and struggled all the way. The next year (1971) those Colts would return to the Super Bowl, and win it all against the Cowboys.

That was an historically great team that struggled psychologically after loosing the big one. The Super Bowl loser's jinx is real and powerful and effective. The Colts know all about it. You know more about it than I do.

The Cowboy offense looks like shit

During the deep-off season, I joined many in thinking that the Cowboys had to be a mild-favorite to win the NFC. With a sharply weakened NFC-East, and an improved passing attack, I thought the Cowboys might enjoy a cake-walk to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, including the Super Bowl.

Right now I am officially off the Cowboys' bandwagon. What I have seen is an ugly-struggling offense that has not pierced the end-zone this preseason... at least the 1st stringers haven't. Most problematic is the offensive line. It looks like you guys inherited the curse of Alex Barron. Now your offensive line looks like keystone cops at a Chinese fire-drill.

I am being a little facetious here. Alex has actually looked pretty good for Cowboys so far, but the rest of the line, particularly the interior looks like abject and absolutely reprehensible shit. There is no way you guys are going to go to the Super Bowl with a line that looks like that. You got some work to do, and it might be as difficult as the work the Rams have to do.

The Patriot defense looks like shit

And I mean wet, running, stinky, nasty, stenching cat shit too! If you think otherwise, you have a lot of explaining to do. Some say that the Patriots never show you anything but a 'vanilla look' during the preseason. Folks, that is not sufficient to explain what I saw against the Rams.

Understand that the NFL's 32nd ranked offense, an offense that averaged only 10.9 points per game last season, an offense that was shutout by the Redskins and the Seahawks (bottom 10 teams) just went up to New England and popped 17 points on the board before you got up to take a piss.

The Rams went on to score 36. The Patriots kept Tom Brady in the game until the 4th quarter, trying to make it look closer than it actually was. The Patriot broadcast team heaped praise on Bradford to avoid heaping condemnation on Bellichick's defense.

The praise for Bradford was mostly ledgit, but you dropped the ball by failing to condemn the Patriots defense. They looks pretty damn slow and unathletic to me. That defense just doesn't look competitive. They are more than suspect at this point.

Right now, I think 2010 is the year the wheels fall off of that Patriot defense. It would make sense. The hoodie has been keeping it going with smoke and mirrors for the past year.

Jesus looks like shit

So, I trust we are all familiar with the pecular story of Charlie Whitehurst, correct? My favorite piece on BleacherReport.com was titled "Jesus Christ to start at Quarterback in Seattle". I wrote that piece, by the way. The Seahawk fans dug it. I got a lot of nice praise for that humorous piece.

I wanted to make the point that there ain't no way in hell Charlie Whitehurst is the future of the Seahawk organization. I knew that when the trade went down. Whitehurst is a short-term stop-gap solution for the Seahawks for those occasions in 2010 when Matt is injured. Matt is often injured, by the way.

I fully expect the Seahawks to go after a certain fellow by the name of Jake Locker in this upcoming 2011 draft. He is the hometown hero, and he is being developed by Pete's buddy and former offensive coordinator Steve.

Incidentally, more than 60% of the Seahawk fans agreed with me. The polls indicates that they believe Jesus... errr... Charlie is a stop-gap, and Jake Locker is the man of the future in Seattle. Many of them are begging for this outcome. The only doubt comes from those who just don't think the Seahawks will be in a position to take Locker. They all want him.

Charlie is not giving them a reason to stop begging. He's got a QB passer rating of 61. I know he has thrown for a lot of yards, but he has not looked good doing so. Right now, he does not resemble a starting QB in the National Football League.

The Cardinal look poised for a fall, regrettably.

What I say now, I say with a heavy heart: The Cardinals look like they are going down. Not only did they deal Anquan, not only did Kurt Warner retire, not only did Larry Fitzgerald get hurt, but now Derek Anderson is looking like their top QB with an efficiency rating of 70.2. In the immortal words of Herm Edwards, "I'm calling Kurt Warner".

This is not good. I enjoyed watching the Cardinals compete over the past two seasons. I do not like seeing teams occupy the post of "perennial doormats". I enjoyed seeing the Cards get up and make a Super Bowl run.

Now it looks to me as if they are going to rejoin the cellar dwellers at the bottom of the heap. They may want to compete with the Seahawks for Jake Locker. In the meantime, you need to get Sage Rosenfels from the Vikings.

The Rams do look better, but the Jim Plunkett 2.0 remake is still on schedule

The Rams flashed a strong offense against the Patriots, but don't get too hyped about that just yet. All along, I have been warning of a Hollywood remake of the Jim Plunket story.

Do you remember that story? A brilliant Heisman trophy winning passer gets selected #1 by a football team with a shit-ass offensive line. He flashes strong, winning rookie of the year, and even defeating the mighty Raiders. All the way along the line, he takes hit after hit. Eventually the hits take their toll and he starts getting injured.

Fortunately, Jim's career had a happy ending. Mr. Al Davis put him behind one of the finest offensive lines in league history, and he detonated.

Ram fans need to be keenly aware of this historical example as we watch the Sam Bradford story unfold. Already Donnie Avery has been lost for the season on a fluke ACL tear. Lost in the turmoil of the injury was the fact that Sam Bradford got ax-handled on the very same play. I am talking about a high-velocity hit that launched Sam off his feet and pancaked him. He shook it off, just as Jim Plunkett did after so many hits. That fact is cold comfort for Ram fans.

Former 49er Randy Cross praise Bradford's poise, and warned that the Patriot defense was "massaging his chops" after every throw. Things are out-of-order on the Rams offensive line. This needs to be fixed, real soon.

The Rams also need to trade for a certain receiver in San Diego, but you didn't hear this suggestion from me. If I suggest it, Devaney will never make the deal.

The Kroenke era begins with a boom. The Georgia curse has been ended.

Surely you jest! Surely you are pulling my leg! Nah! Not true! Are you serious. The Rams defeated the Patriots 36-35 in Boston? NAH!

I want to carefully qualify my remarks. I do not believe the Patriots are the ruling dynasty of the NFL. I do not believe they are a Super Bowl contender this season. Nevertheless, I do expect them to post a winning season. I do not expect the same thing from my Rams.

Still I cannot deny the reports the NFL Network is throwing at me. Evidentially, my 1-15 team just went into New England and scored 36 points against the Patriots. Do you understand that this was the 32nd ranked offense in the NFL last season? This was an offense that had trouble putting 11 points on the scoreboard, and was shutout by the Redskins and the Seahawks, both of whom were bottom 10 teams.

How did you fuckers give up 36 points? Mel Kiper was more right than I though he was, and I thought he was pretty accurate on this question. The New England Patriots have real problems on defense. I haven't seen a lot of things that impressed me this preseason (except Javid Best) but this impresses me.

You mean to tell me that Sam shot 15 for 22 for 189 yards and a pair of touchdowns behind one of the most... er... ah... lines in the league? That is a pretty good QB rating there kid. Keep it up.

I don't know what to say. I guess my guys have gotten better and yours have gotten worse. If I were the Patriots, I would pretty intensely humiliated by this.

Hallelujah the Georgia curse has been lifted! The Kroenke era begins with a bang.

Good job guys.

Are the Patriots rebuilding...?

Sometimes I watch the NFL Network and shake my head in disbelief. Last night one of the topics up for discussion was this: Are the Patriots rebuilding? Has the window closed? Is the Patriot way a thing of the past?

Eisen launched the discussion by mentioning that all the Patriot-Way guys are now on ESPN or in other locker-rooms around the league. Rich... I said the same thing last year! You can read my blog entry from September 12th, 2009 and see that I was way ahead of you. Naturally, the Patriots went 10-6, a fact I predicted on week 11, and they were a quick-out in the playoffs. The Ravens beat the shit out of them on their home field in the playoffs.

I do not think the Patriots are making the playoffs in 2010. I could be wrong about that. I still need to see every last 1st quarter of the pre-season before I can be sure. Right now, the Patriots don't look like a playoff team to me. I don't like Mel Kiper, but I totally agree with his comment about the Patriots: They looked like they had other plans for that afternoon during the playoff loss to the Ravens. They looked disinterested in the process that afternoon.

So why are the good folks at the NFL Network blind to the fact that the Patriot dynasty ended early in 2008 when the Commish handed the Lombardi to the New York Giants? There is a simple answer to this question: They aren't blind. They know. There are lies, damn lies, and then there is the promotional function of the NFL Network.

You have to understand that the NFL Network has but one purpose in life: To promote interest in the upcoming NFL season. To wit, they must cultivate interest in the New England region. It does not help their cause any if all of Boston tunes out in 2010 because the Patriots are over and done with. No, they need to promote interest in the New England region to keep those DirectTV subscribers watching those games.

Rich, I know you know. You know that I know. I know that you know that I know. You know that I know that you know. You are practicing outright intellectual dishonesty in your evaluation of the Patriots. You are doing so to fulfill mission objective #1 of the NFL Network: To promote interest in the upcoming NFL season, even in the New England area, where the Patriots are dwindling down.

Just to make sure the Patriot fans don't try to call me a homer, understand that I understand the NFL Network is soft-peddling the horror in St. Louis also. These guys have not been open and forthright in their questions and assessments of management direction in St. Louis. I think they do understand how bad things are, and they are deliberately understating the facts.

They are doing this for one reason: The NFL Network's prime directive is to promote interest in the upcoming NFL season, even in St. Louis, where my Rams are still dwindling down. They are interested in promoting the upcoming NFL season, even in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers are likely in for one gruesome year.

Less than zero credence?

Last night on ESPN's NFL Live, the guys discussed Coach Bill Bellichick's dinner with Tim Tebow. Bellichick heaped praise on Tebow afterward. Just what does this mean? Does this mean the Patriots will be drafting Tebow and grooming him as Brady's eventual replacement in their Spread-like offense?

Marcellus Wiley and Mark Sclereth didn't think so at all. Wiley said that pre-draft official visits should be given less zero credence when it comes to assessing a teams interest. He sited his own story as a perfect example. The Bills drafted him site-unseen in the 2nd round. They never spoke with him prior to the draft. They didn't come to his ProDay. They never called his agent. They never invited him to Bills' HQ. They never even had the team doctor look at him. They just drafted him. This is the clandestine nature of the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

The received wisdom is that the 30 official visits are mostly burned on subterfuge & decoys. Teams are playing the cards close to the vest, not showing their hands. A nice pro-point can be found in last year's draft. The Rams burned one of their official 30 team visits on Mark Sanchez. We signaled that we were interested. We passed him by. Everybody knew we were just manipulating the Jets.

I would add a couple of modifiers on this. Teams do scout their first rounders with these offiicial team visits, especially when they are destined to become super-high first rounders. If you look at every #1 overall pick for the past 30 seasons, he visited the team that drafted him. He might not have played for that team, but he visited with the team that drafted him.

The second modifier I would tag on is that teams are quite deceptive about their 2nd and 3rd round preferences. Almost every team will get a crack at your 2nd and 3rd round selections once or twice. All of your divisional opponents will have an opportunity to practice the strategy of denial. The Patriots have many enemies in the AFC. There is no profit in tipping your hand to the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Colts and Chargers. Some of these teams would be inclined to take a prospect off the board if they knew the Patriots were interested.

Consider this example. Suppose the Patriots are seriously considering making a small move up to acquire Earl Thomas or Eric Berry on draft day. It could happen. The Patriots need a lot of defensive help. They have not replaced Rodney Harrison. Suppose Berry goes quickly as expected. Strange picks happen. The Raiders do something stupid. Earl Thomas begins to slide. The Steelers are on the clock with #17. They hear the Patriots are negotiating with the Falcons, and they have heard the name Earl Thomas in the mix. The Steelers have a strong need for a corner, and somebody who can sub for Troy Palamalu. They are also sweet on Maurkice Pouncey. Knowing the Patriots are making a move to acquire Thomas, would the Steelers fill their need in the Secondary first? I suspect they would. You screw the Patriots and fill your need at the same time. This is a double bonus.

This is why there is so much stealth and deception surrounding later picks. This is why you guard those 2nd rounders particularly close to the vest.

So what does this principle indicate for a Ram fan? Don't place too much credence in Colt McCoy's visit. Also, don't place much credence in the Rams' apparent total lack of interest in Tim Tebow. I know for a fact we are seriously considering Sam Bradford, and at the same time I know for a fact that we would deal that pick in a split-instant if a good trade is offered. It could go either way on draft day. If we deal that pick, we are looking for a QB in the 2nd round or later; most probably the 2nd round. Suppose this is a Marcellus Wiley situation? Who do we take at #33 or #37 or #38?

If you doubt this scenario, consider this video, just posted today where Sam Bradford indicates that the Rams have not tipped their hand to him, and he is still in the dark about where he is going to go come draft day.

On the one hand, I am disappointed that we are deceptively signalling Colt McCoy. The Rams did not attend the UT ProDay yesterday, which I consider a mistake. There were a lot of prospects there to see. Now we are using one of our 30 visits on a presumptive 2nd round pick? Under the Schlereth-Willey law, what does this tell you? We're wasting Colt's time. We're just playing the game. This is unfortunate. Colt McCoy is a serious prospect, and deserves some respect as such. I do like the kid a hell of a lot.

However, you know I like Tebow just a little bit better. Since Tebow is a presumptive 2nd rounder, I am glad we are signalling no interest at this moment. Things still might go well for us.

Time to dump the West Coast Offense in St. Louis

It is time for the Rams to dump the West Coast Offense and adopt a more spread-like offense. Our experiment with the West Coast Offense has been a complete and unmitigated catastrophe. I don't mean maybe either.

The West Coast allegedly came to St. Louis in the form of Scott Linehan on January 19th of 2006. He was fired after game 4 of the 2008 regular season. Linehan will be forever known as the man who destroyed the Greatest Show on Turf. He destroyed it by getting rid of the Martz offense, which was little more a collection of plays custom tailored to the exact strengths of our offensive players. Linehan jammed our players into his edition of the West Coast system, a complex ball-control passing system based on flexible and adaptive routes. The players, particularly Torry Holt, Issac Bruce and Marc Bulger absolutely hated the system. They made a lot of mistakes. They were used to running exact routes, tailored to their strengths, and they loved it.

Linehan's solution was to get rid of Issac Bruce, try to unload Torry Holt, and stick with Bulger because of his cap number. That failed miserably.

Two years ago, the Rams drafted #2 overall, signifying that we were the 2nd worst team in football. Two years ago we did the same thing. This year are drafting number 1, signifying that we are the worst team in professional football. As I have stated many times on this blog, we are the worst team in professional football for 1 reason: We finished dead last in scoring. This indicates we have the worst offense in the league. So much for the West Coast in St. Louis.

Make no mistake, a large reason for our lack of point production is the West Coast Offensive system. The West Coast is outdated, outmoded and obsolete. It does not work well anymore. As coach Brian Billick says, nobody plays the West Coast offense as Walsh once did. Everybody has absorbed some components of the system, but nobody plays it as the 49ers did. This is because your can't play it as the 49ers did and enjoy success.

The 49er offense worked for a brief period of time and for just two historical reasons. In 1981 we were only 3 years removed from the 1978 rules changes which opened up the passing game. Teams were absolutely bomb-happy. Defenses were deathly afraid of the bomb. Second, we were only really 1 year removed from the epoch of the Steel Curtain defense. Everybody was still emulating the Steeler model of defense. This system was very much like the Tampa-2, dropping safeties back deep to stop big plays. They used their big and bad 4 down linemen to attack the quarterback, without much recourse to the blitz.

The epoch of 1981 to 1990 was just about perfect for dink-n-dunk scheme that Mr. Walsh invented. Most defenses would surrender the short pass to you, not believing that you could march down the field on a collection of mistake-free short passes. To his credit, Bill Belichick was
one of the first guys to realize that this program was lethal if left unchecked.

Belichick's response to the West Coast was simple and beautiful. He decided he would only defend 40 yards of ground from the line of scrimmage. He knew most of the action would occur in the first 15-20 yards from scrimmage. He called this first 20 yards the redzone. This turf would be defended with a hard man-on press coverage. The next 20 yards was called the yellow zone, and it was defended with a soft-zone coverage; a scheme notorious for generating vicious hits. His linebackers were instructed to smother running backs (like Roger Craig) circling out of the backfield. He knew full well that the 49ers had no thought of going deep down the field on a typical play. He understood Joe Montana did not have the arm to throw the football 50 yards down field with accuracy.

When confronted with the Belichick-Box, the only solution is for the Quarterback to (A) Run with the football (B) wait for the deep pass to open up. For a receiver to clear coverage more than 40 yards down field in full pads, more than 5 seconds of good pass-protection is needed. This was tough to come by as Lawrence Taylor and Leonard Marshall were rushing from the same or different sides of the line. Montana tried to hold the ball for more than 5 seconds in the NFC championship game of 1990/1991. Leonard Marshall effectively terminated his career with the 49ers on that day.

The Belichick Box defeats the West Coast offense. It is now the default defensive position for all teams about to play West Coast opponent. If you don't have an All-Pro offensive line, you won't break the box. If you don't have a super-mobile QB, you won't break the box. If you don't have world-class sprinters at the WR position, you won't break the box. This is why the West Coast Offense doesn't work anymore. Too much talent is required to defeat a relatively simple defensive scheme.

Guess what? The dirty little secret the NFL keeps in the closet is that a modified version of the Spread Offense is now the king of all passing attacks in Pro Football. This is the system the New England Patriots have been running since 2007. This is the system that allowed Tom Brady to break the touchdown record with 51. This is the system Ben Rothlisberger has been working in for the past two years. Both participants in this year's Super Bowl also use plenty of spread in their weekly play list.

The Spread Offense has aspects of the West Coast and aspects of the Air Coryell offense embedded with in it. This is a pass-first offense, where you establish the passing game, and then run later. You control the football and gain the lead by passing. Unlike these schemes, it is run out of the Shotgun. You line up with 3, 4 and even 5 wide receivers. Unlike these schemes, it almost always employs the quick-time, or no-huddle offense. Many plays are called at the line of scrimmage. The Spread most resembles what used to be called the Run-N-Shoot offense.

Interestingly enough, the Spread is considered a very QB and Wide Receiver friendly offense. It is flexible and adaptable to the strengths of your players. It is considered simple enough to implement in the short college season with relatively young and inexperienced players.

If this is a Copycat League, teams should emulate success, and anti-imitate failure. One of the most stubbornly run biased teams in the league has been my Rams, and we are officially the worst team in football. The most run biased team in Football is the Jets. They barely made the playoffs at 9-7. The Colts are dead last in rushing (#32) and yet they are the favorite to win this year's Super Bowl.

What does all this tell you?

1. 1-15 up to 9-7 is the victory range for run biased teams.
2. 9-7 up to 16-0 is the victory range for Spread teams.
   
3. Dump the Run First approach.
4. Adopt the Pass First approach.
5. Do not force players into a ridged and complex system like the West Coast.
6. Adopt a simple and flexible passing scheme like the Spread.
7. Tailor the system to fit the strengths of the players, as Mike Martz did.