The four teams in the AFC that won’t play in Super Bowl XLVI

Introduction

So, rather than focusing on the lockout, which began last night, I thought I would have a little fun this morning by sticking my thumb in the eye of the analysts at ESPN and the NFL Network. Why do a thing like that? Because they are a bunch of lazy bastards who always do the easy and non-controversial thing when making predictions about the up-coming season.

This leads to all kinds of error, and a complete lack of awareness of the tremendous changes underway in every off season. Without further Ado, here are the four teams that will not contend for the title in 2011… presuming we have a season in 2011.

The San Diego Chargers

I once again heard voices on the radio and the HDTV flogging the notion that Chargers are an Uber-tallented team that is long over-due for a Super Bowl victory. Don’t make me laugh. That ship sailed years ago. Forget about it.

What are you saying, Dave? Are you saying the Chargers are not an uber-tallented team, and they aren’t over due? Yep, you’re fuckin’a right that’s what I am saying. Why? How can you say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? You gotta be fucking kidding me? How can I say that?

· Because it isn’t fucking 2006 anymore, bitch. Get over it. Get some news updates about the roster and the coaching staff, will you please?

· Marty Schottenheimer is not the head coach of the Chargers. Norv Turner is the head coach.

· The Chargers don’t have L.T. anymore

· The Chargers don’t have Lights-Out Merriman anymore

· Soon, they won’t have Vincent Jackson

· GM A.J. Smith is the epicenter of some very ugly labor strife

Furthermore, I still have two words that categorically prove the Chargers cannot win the Super Bowl in this epoch: Norv Turner. Just in case you haven’t noticed yet, Norv sucks as a head coach. He’s a great offensive coordinator, and a terrible head coach.

The Pittsburgh Steelers

You know the statistical law: The looser of the Super Bowl doesn’t even make the playoffs the year after. This is one of the greatest, tried and true trends in professional football. Even the 16-0 pseudo-undefeated Patriots failed to make the playoffs in 2008.

Of course, this did not prevent ESPN from crowing those Patriots the Super Bowl champions in 2008 and 2009. Likewise, I am sure the Steelers will be a big favorite of the pundits in 2011. Nope, you’re all wet. The Steelers will not make the playoffs in 2011… provided there is a 2011.

The New England Patriots

I am sure the crew in Bristol is going into mega-conniption fits, pealing backflips and having babies as they read this line. Tough shit. Read it and weep, bitches.

How can you say that, Dave? Because it isn’t the first half of the 2000s anymore, that’s how I can say it. If you actually watched pro-football games instead of just looking at box-scores, standings and crunching a few numbers, you might actually notice that this Patriot team is nowhere (and I mean nowhere) near the quality of the championship teams that once dwelt there. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball.

But you don’t actually watch the games and/or notice how the teams play, do you? You just crunch numbers right? I watch the games, I crunch numbers, and I filter out bullshit hype. I am far better than you are.

Once upon a time, a long time ago, the Patriots won 3 Super Bowls. The last of those came some 6 years ago. This is an eternity in Pro-Football time. The team that plays in New England is no longer that team which won those Super Bowls. They may have the same coach. They may have the same QB. They are not the same team, period point-blank, no ifs ands or buts about it.

Do not call them a dynasty. Do not tell me this is a franchise with Super Bowl experience. Do not tell me that the coach and the QB are enough. Do not tell me Bellichick is going to reload in this year’s draft. The dynasty officially ended when the Commish handed the precious to the New York Giants.

It is now absolutely and completely over. The end was signed and sealed with the last three playoff tournament results. They failed to qualify in 2008. They made instant and embarrassing playoff exits in the first round in both 2009 an 2010.

The end. Turn the page. Close the book.

The Indianapolis Colts

Of all my predictions, this is the most dangerous one. Of all the teams picked to be a non-factor, this is the team most likely to be a factor. However, with that said, I think we have pretty good reason to believe that the party is in decline in Indi.

Why do I say that? As we all saw, the Colts suffered two major cracks in their juggernaut last season. Payton Manning was definitely not himself during major portions of the season. We saw a lot of interceptions and miscues that we have not seen from him since his rookie campaign. Furthermore, we saw quite substantial cracks in their defense.

Much blame was laid on injuries. Most voices chanted that pious cant. There was a small, but vocal minority that said it wasn’t so. Peyton had his chief receiver, Reggie Wayne, through the entire year. President Bill Polian laid the blame squarely on the offensive line, declaring that they just weren’t protecting Peyton. Although the line could use some upgrades, I did not notice an incredible number of sacks or pressures in the games I watched, or the compiled statistics.

We need to call a spade a spade: Manning had a bad year. We hope he doesn’t have two. We don’t know whether he will or not. He seems to be fairly deeply involved in the current labor unrest, and he refused to sign his tender. We don’t really know what he is up to in all this, but one thing is for sure: he can’t be allocating as much time as he usually does to off-season preparation.

But on to the defense… As Ray Lewis has correctly said, if you took Peyton away from the Colts, they would be a sub-average football team. I happen to believe Ray was speaking of the Colts defense. It seems that this unit has been perpetually suspect for 6 or 7 years now. Tony Dungy did everything he could to hold that unit together, but it was a high maintenance machine: It kept breaking down, especially in key moments.

I personally doubt that Jim Caldwell has what it takes to prop up the sagging Colt defense. I think this is the most important reason to expect a drop-off in the Colts’ regular season performance this year.

The Patriots? Bah… drivel!

The 7 time defending ESPN champs

So, unless you have buried under a rock, you know that ESPN has crowned the New England Patriots the Super Bowl XV champion… before the season is over… and before the playoffs begin. ESPN has crowned the Patriots champion in each and every one of the past 7 consecutive seasons. This includes 2008 when the Patriots failed to qualify for the playoffs. The Patriots are now the 7 time defending ESPN champs.

OH BUT THEY WERE RIGHT IN 2004, 2005, and 2007, and they were undefeated in 2007! Undefeated in 2007, aye? Tell that to the Giants who have big fat diamond rings on their fingers.

I’ll never forget the time last season (2009) when Chris Berman referred to the Patriots as the de facto champs. Q.E.D. quo est demonstratum. For those who complain that there is no east-coast bias at ESPN, you need some of the reality potion the New York Yankees are brewing a little south of your position. Like the Patriots, the Yankees are very close to Bristol. Grab some potion after work.

ESPN has a real bad tendency to get stuck in a groove. This is because the main man, Chris Berman, is a May 10, 1955 Taurus dude. Though he is my Earth brother, and I love the guy, I have to warn you that a Taurus like Berman is the most suborn and fixated character in the zodiac. The rest of the organization has modeled itself around his example. I’ll never forget the time Chris Berman picked the 49ers and Bills as his preseason favorites for the Super Bowl NINE years in a row! It took him almost a decade to give up on that one. I have heard rumors stating that he picked the Raiders v Cowboys nine time in a row back in 1970s. That didn’t happen either.

They say the only dude a Taurus will listen to is a Virgo. If so, I hope I can get this message across clearly, and I hope it will get some consideration. ESPN has been wrong about the Patriots 5 of the last 5 seasons. They have misidentified Patriot weaknesses as strengths in each of the past 5 consecutive years. This has lead to quite considerable error. Who can evaluate that track record of error and not see some form of bias back behind it all?

I’m not buying the Patriots

By now, you should realize that I’m not buying the Patriot theory. Why not? I’ve got some good reasons. Here they are:

1. This team is not the dynasty Patriot team. The one and only hold-over from the glory days is Tom Brady. That is not enough. This is practically an all-new edition, and quite unproven.

2. They just aren’t that talented. You will note that this team doesn’t have many Pro-Bowlers; just three Patriots were elected. Once again, coach Bellichick is doing a lot with a little. This isn’t as good a thing as some would have you believe.

3. Last year, the Ravens not only beat the Patriots in the playoffs, they beat the hell out of them. Until these Patriots prove they can beat these Ravens in a significant game, I favor the Ravens in the AFC.

4. The Patriots are benefiting from unexpectedly weak competition. The Dolphins unexpectedly collapsed in 2010. The Jets have been much weaker than expected in 2010. The Bills… let’s just say those games constitute two free victories for the Patriots. Tough games on the schedule, such as the Packers, turned out to be dramatically easier due to key injuries, such as the Packers’ loss of Aaron Rodgers. The Patriot win total is a little bloated this year, and deceptive.

5. Andrew Siciliano describes the Patriots as “a 10-6 football team with few playmakers, a suspect defense, who are vulnerable on the road.” I am sure he was referencing the spanking the Patriots took from the Browns. I don’t see much wrong with his statement. Though their record is better than 10-6, it might easily be 10-6 under slightly different circumstances. We all know how they creep down the field. You witnessed the way in which Matt Flynn, the backup QB in Green Bay, put more than 30 points on the board against the Patriot defense. The Patriots won’t have to go on the road in this tournament, but home field advantage didn’t help them much last season.

6. The AFC is the second best conference in the league. The dirty little secret we’re all keeping in the closet is that the NFC is now the better conference. The AFC just ain’t what it’s cracked up to be. The NFC won the lion’s share of key matchups between contending playoff teams in 2010. The NFC also contains two of the past three Super Bowl winners. Note that the AFC Steelers nearly lost to the Cardinals in a dandy sandwiched between two NFC victories; one at the expense of the “undefeated” Patriots. My bet will probably be on the NFC champion when SB45 comes around.

7. Our best reasons for believing in the Patriots are the things we’ve heard in the echo chamber, and the echo chamber is dominated by the North Easterners at ESPN. I wonder what the prevailing national opinion of these Patriots would be if we weren’t living in an echo chamber dominated by the North Easterners at ESPN?

I’m making a non-fashionable choice

I’m taking the Ravens in the AFC. If you want to crown their ass (the Patriots) then crown them, but the Patriots are who I think they are, and this is why their opponents should take the damn field.

Very, Very Preliminary predictions about 2010's NFL Playoff Picture

So, I'm going to break my little self-imposed rule, and blog once more about the NFL. I'll blog about Google Android development next time.

Peter King just wrote up his latest NFL Power Rankings. I was little stunned by the graphic. Aaron Rodgers and Steven Jackson were side-by side and the caption said "#1 and #32". My Rams are at the bottom of the rankings, as per usual. But Green Bay at the top?

This was an eye opener. Just yesterday, I made up my chart of projected division winners, and I chose Green Bay to win the North. I wondered if I was bit bullish on a team that gave up 51 sacks last season and had an inconsistent defense. If you listen to Peter King, I may have been a bit conservative. I am glad others see it the way I do.

So here is my reasoning:

NFC

Packers win the North because: They are more talented than the Vikings. The Vikings aren't really as talented as people make them out to be. The Pack get their left tackle back. They got lucky and scored Brian Bulaga in the draft. The defense is in the 2nd year of Dom Capers' system. Favre is really hurt. He is indecisive about surgery. They won't be shit without him. With him, they will have some difficulties matching their success of 2009 against a greatly upgraded NFC North.

The 49ers win the West by default. I believe Leinart will be a good quarterback. The first year of transition from one great QB to another is always a bitch. The Cards will step down; two more losses makes them 8-8. Mike Sandow blogged about this. 10,000 simulations of the NFC 2010 Schedule shows the 49ers winning it by default 73% of the time.

The Cowboys win the East by default. I do not believe the NFC East will be a competitive division in 2010. The Eagles are going through QB transition. They will drop down. The Redskins are going through a total remake. They will not make the playoffs or even win in 2010. The Giants could make the playoffs, but that defense will have to rank higher than 30. It doesn't looks so good for the G-Men defensively. Basically the Cowboys runaway with it, unless my Rams have impregnated them with the poison pill: Alex Barron.

Now for the controversial pick: The Falcons win the South. Nobody repeats as divisional champ in this division. The Saints now have the bullseye on their backs... in more ways than one. The Saints are now going through a Federal DEA investigation on the Vicodin scandal. If Sean Payton gets suspended for 4-6 games, forget it. The title defense is fucked. Peyton is the key to the Saints. His ultra-aggressive game management is the key to their championship style.

The Falcons are a fundamentally sound football team. They have youth, they have experience, they have all-pros, they have role-players, they have offense, they have defense, they have special teams. Basically they have everything you need to be a solid contender.

I pick the Saints and the Vikings to make the Playoffs only as wildcards. One of these teams may get bumped off if the Giants are resurgent defensively.

I pick the Packers and the Cowboys to meet in the NFC title game, but the Falcons may crash the party. I think the Cowboys have to be the mild favorite to win the NFC.

AFC

The Ravens win the North. I don't need to explain this much. The Steelers are dead meat in 2010. The Browns remain dead meat. The Bengals can make this interesting, but I think the Ravens are the prohibitive favorite to win the division and the AFC.

I Pick the Chargers to win the West by default. I am not at all bullish on the Chargers. The Chargers have a 0.000% chance of visiting the Super Bowl or winning the Super Bowl. Why do I say that? Besides a host of issues, I have two words for you: Norv Turner. The Chargers will get in and get out of the playoffs quick: Like a Pinche Vato.

Now for a really interesting pick. I think the Dolphins will win the East. Why? Brandon Marshall will make Chad Henne a ProBowl player. These two will give them a good passing attack for the first time in ages. Marshall will help end the QB nonsense in Miami. The Jets are making splashy Hollywood box-office moves, but they are not that much upgraded. Their upgrades are offset by the loss of Alan Faneca and Thomas Jones, two offensive MVP players for them in 2009. Santonio Holmes cannot even begin to contribute until week 5.

What about the Patriots? As long as they have Belichick and Brady they have a shot! Will you fuck off with that shit already? Do me a favor and shove that saying up your mama's ass. You can say utterly stupid things to fools who don't understand the game of football, but you can't say that to me. It takes a lot more than a coach and QB to win in the NFL. The Patriot Dynasty ended in very early 2008 when the Commish handed the Lombardi to the New York Giants. They are not contenders in 2010. I agree with Mel Kiper's analysis: That Patriot team looked like they had other plans for the afternoon during the playoff loss to the Ravens. They looked disinterested in the process.

Now for another interesting pick: The Houston Texans win the South. I know, they supposedly have the toughest schedule. Watch it soften as the season goes on. That schedule not going to be as tough as you think in 2010. This is a good looking team. I would feel better about this pick if they had selected Mr. Ryan Matthews in the Draft.

So why not the Colts? Aren't the Colts the most powerful team in the AFC? In theory, yes, but they have the Super Bowl looser's jinx upon them. Remember: history teaches us that the looser of the Super Bowl doesn't even make it into the playoffs the next year. If so, they don't end so well. The Cards had the best result in ages, and they still got mauled by the Saints.

The Colts have to beat tall odds to get back to the Super Bowl and win. Nobody has done this since the undefeated Miami Dolphins of 72-73. Skip that. They have to beat tall odds to simply get into the Playoffs and win a game.

I pick the Colts and Jets as the two wildcard teams, but watch for the Bengals to crash the party. Right now, the Ravens are my prohibitive favorite to win the AFC. I mean a 19.5 point favorite to win the AFC Title game. They are very heavy hitters in 2010.

Post-Thoughts

All of this incredibly preliminary. I am talking very, very, very preliminary. I want to see the 1st quarter of every preseason game before I pick my contenders for real. We have to see how 1s-vs-1s look in the 1st quarter of the Pre-Season.

At this point, I can critique my own chart by saying the following: It looks too much like last year's playoff chart. The 49ers and Falcons are new to the picture in the NFC, but nobody else is. The Dolphins and Texans are new to the AFC picture, but nobody else is.

Each year and every year something between 4-6 teams that did not make the playoffs in the year prior make it to the playoffs. The Saints didn't make the playoffs in 2008. They are the Champions now. The Jets hadn't been to the playoffs in years. They went to the AFC title game last season with a rookie QB. The Steelers were the champs in 2008. They did not make it to the playoffs in 2009.

Believe me... I can go on.

My current chart may be a little too conservative in predicting change.