Sunday, January 8, 2012
How 'bout that Tebow 27.5? And Thomas too!
So, I need to catch-up on some much needed sleep, and I really shouldn't be blogging right now. However, I just couldn't let this night pass without sticking it right in the collective-eye of the critics.
If you listened to even 45 minutes of analysis this week, you know well that the Denver Broncos had an absolute 0.0000000000000% chance of wining this playoff game today. That is absolute zero, ziltch, zip, nada, nothing. They had no chance to win. Everybody agreed with Merril Hodge. Tim Tebow stood no chance against Dick LaBeau's defense. The Steelers were going to eat him alive.
Folks on NFL Live made bold predictions that the Broncos would be absolutely shutout by the Steeler-defense. That is, the Broncos would score zero, ziltch, zip, nada, nothing in terms of points in this game.
It turns out that Tim Tebow shot 10 for 21 for 316 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Broncos put 29 points on the scoreboard. That's 29 more than they were supposed to put on the board. Tebow had a QB efficiency rating over 125. Ben Roethlisburger had a QBR of 75. Tebow out-QB'd Roethlisburger by some 50 points worth of QBR.
How 'bout 'dem apples? That's a pretty sizable QBR differential, ain't it? Surprising that the Steelers were able to hang in there as long as they were with a QBR differential like that. A 125 next week will probably give the Denver Broncos a pretty good QBR differential also.
Of course, everybody is still buzzing about the first-ever overtime period after the recent rules changes by the NFL Competition Committee. We were supposed to have an OT period in which both teams got a chance to touch the football. Nope, didn't happen like that. Tebow took the snap on the 20, hit Demaryius Thomas at around the 50 with a sweet pass, and Demaryius took off. Nobody could stop him. One stiff-arm later, Thomas was in the End-Zone.
Overtime lasted one-snap and just 11 seconds. That was the most sudden sudden-death I ever saw. I've been watching NFL Football since 1979 folks. That's longer than some of you have been alive.
It should be noted that Demaryius Thomas is a December 25th, Christmas Capricorn baby. He is showing some tremendous chemistry with this Leo kid named Tim Tebow. I have a feeling these two are going to be a famous combo. Thomas averaged 51 yards per reception nailing 204 yards on just 4 receptions.
In all seriousness folks, I have no idea how the geniuses out there in television-land came to conclusion that the Broncos stood no chance against the Steelers. Just looking at the Steeler injury list, which resembled a small telephone book, you absolutely could not rule out the Broncos.
It's time for you buggers at ESPN to confess: You had a religious belief that Tebow and the Broncos couldn't win this game. It was a faith-based position, not a position based on fact or logic. It was a metaphysical position.
I'm laughing like hell at you, and I am wondering when you are going to stop cheering against this kid.
Sunday, June 19, 2011
The 1970s Steelers: The Virgo-Pisces Alliance

So now we come to the famous Pittsburgh Steelers of the 1970s. This is the most successful Super Bowl unit in the history of the league. The same basic unit won four Super Bowls in just 6 years. So great were they that they have their own wing in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton.

Saturday, March 12, 2011
The four teams in the AFC that won’t play in Super Bowl XLVI
Introduction
So, rather than focusing on the lockout, which began last night, I thought I would have a little fun this morning by sticking my thumb in the eye of the analysts at ESPN and the NFL Network. Why do a thing like that? Because they are a bunch of lazy bastards who always do the easy and non-controversial thing when making predictions about the up-coming season.
This leads to all kinds of error, and a complete lack of awareness of the tremendous changes underway in every off season. Without further Ado, here are the four teams that will not contend for the title in 2011… presuming we have a season in 2011.
The San Diego Chargers
I once again heard voices on the radio and the HDTV flogging the notion that Chargers are an Uber-tallented team that is long over-due for a Super Bowl victory. Don’t make me laugh. That ship sailed years ago. Forget about it.
What are you saying, Dave? Are you saying the Chargers are not an uber-tallented team, and they aren’t over due? Yep, you’re fuckin’a right that’s what I am saying. Why? How can you say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? You gotta be fucking kidding me? How can I say that?
· Because it isn’t fucking 2006 anymore, bitch. Get over it. Get some news updates about the roster and the coaching staff, will you please?
· Marty Schottenheimer is not the head coach of the Chargers. Norv Turner is the head coach.
· The Chargers don’t have L.T. anymore
· The Chargers don’t have Lights-Out Merriman anymore
· Soon, they won’t have Vincent Jackson
· GM A.J. Smith is the epicenter of some very ugly labor strife
Furthermore, I still have two words that categorically prove the Chargers cannot win the Super Bowl in this epoch: Norv Turner. Just in case you haven’t noticed yet, Norv sucks as a head coach. He’s a great offensive coordinator, and a terrible head coach.
The Pittsburgh Steelers
You know the statistical law: The looser of the Super Bowl doesn’t even make the playoffs the year after. This is one of the greatest, tried and true trends in professional football. Even the 16-0 pseudo-undefeated Patriots failed to make the playoffs in 2008.
Of course, this did not prevent ESPN from crowing those Patriots the Super Bowl champions in 2008 and 2009. Likewise, I am sure the Steelers will be a big favorite of the pundits in 2011. Nope, you’re all wet. The Steelers will not make the playoffs in 2011… provided there is a 2011.
The New England Patriots
I am sure the crew in Bristol is going into mega-conniption fits, pealing backflips and having babies as they read this line. Tough shit. Read it and weep, bitches.
How can you say that, Dave? Because it isn’t the first half of the 2000s anymore, that’s how I can say it. If you actually watched pro-football games instead of just looking at box-scores, standings and crunching a few numbers, you might actually notice that this Patriot team is nowhere (and I mean nowhere) near the quality of the championship teams that once dwelt there. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball.
But you don’t actually watch the games and/or notice how the teams play, do you? You just crunch numbers right? I watch the games, I crunch numbers, and I filter out bullshit hype. I am far better than you are.
Once upon a time, a long time ago, the Patriots won 3 Super Bowls. The last of those came some 6 years ago. This is an eternity in Pro-Football time. The team that plays in New England is no longer that team which won those Super Bowls. They may have the same coach. They may have the same QB. They are not the same team, period point-blank, no ifs ands or buts about it.
Do not call them a dynasty. Do not tell me this is a franchise with Super Bowl experience. Do not tell me that the coach and the QB are enough. Do not tell me Bellichick is going to reload in this year’s draft. The dynasty officially ended when the Commish handed the precious to the New York Giants.
It is now absolutely and completely over. The end was signed and sealed with the last three playoff tournament results. They failed to qualify in 2008. They made instant and embarrassing playoff exits in the first round in both 2009 an 2010.
The end. Turn the page. Close the book.
The Indianapolis Colts
Of all my predictions, this is the most dangerous one. Of all the teams picked to be a non-factor, this is the team most likely to be a factor. However, with that said, I think we have pretty good reason to believe that the party is in decline in Indi.
Why do I say that? As we all saw, the Colts suffered two major cracks in their juggernaut last season. Payton Manning was definitely not himself during major portions of the season. We saw a lot of interceptions and miscues that we have not seen from him since his rookie campaign. Furthermore, we saw quite substantial cracks in their defense.
Much blame was laid on injuries. Most voices chanted that pious cant. There was a small, but vocal minority that said it wasn’t so. Peyton had his chief receiver, Reggie Wayne, through the entire year. President Bill Polian laid the blame squarely on the offensive line, declaring that they just weren’t protecting Peyton. Although the line could use some upgrades, I did not notice an incredible number of sacks or pressures in the games I watched, or the compiled statistics.
We need to call a spade a spade: Manning had a bad year. We hope he doesn’t have two. We don’t know whether he will or not. He seems to be fairly deeply involved in the current labor unrest, and he refused to sign his tender. We don’t really know what he is up to in all this, but one thing is for sure: he can’t be allocating as much time as he usually does to off-season preparation.
But on to the defense… As Ray Lewis has correctly said, if you took Peyton away from the Colts, they would be a sub-average football team. I happen to believe Ray was speaking of the Colts defense. It seems that this unit has been perpetually suspect for 6 or 7 years now. Tony Dungy did everything he could to hold that unit together, but it was a high maintenance machine: It kept breaking down, especially in key moments.
I personally doubt that Jim Caldwell has what it takes to prop up the sagging Colt defense. I think this is the most important reason to expect a drop-off in the Colts’ regular season performance this year.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
I'm getting a bad feeling about Super Bowl XLV
I'm getting a bad feeling about this Super Bowl. I have the feeling the Steelers are going to do it for the 7th time. Why? Two words: Ben Roethlisberger. The guy is a past-master of stealing games in the final two minutes of play. I have said this over and over again on this blog and in other venues.
Big Ben hasn't done this once, twice or three times. He does this relentlessly, game in and game out, for several years now. Elway's astounding record for two-minute victory drives is going to be in considerable jeopardy if Roethlisberger stays in the league for another 6-8 years.
He is a clutch guy. Roethlisburger is certainly more of killer-clutch guy than Peyton Manning. I believe he is more clutch than Tom Brady. Michigan men may want to dispute that, but I think it is true. I also believe he is more clutch than Joe Montana. The only guy I rank ahead of Roethlisburger is John Elway. I put Roethlisburger in a tie with Roger Staubach. Only Elway is more clutch than Roethlisberger. Incidentally, Montana was not more clutch than Elway. He wasn't more clutch that Staubach either. Allegations to the contrary are pure mythological bullshit. I saw the totality of both their careers. I know.
Roethlisberger is just too damn clutch. I was reminded of this fact (once again) when I got home last night. The NFL Network was showing a replay of the 2009 meeting between the Packers and Steelers in Pittsburgh. How did it end? With a last-second touchdown pass from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace in the end zone. The Steelers stole that one.
Do I need to remind anybody of what Roethlisberger did to the Ravens in this playoff tournament?
The moral of this story is clear: If the game is close in the final moments, Roethlisberger will win the game for the Steelers. We don't expect most QBs in the league to complete the two-minute drive at the end of the game. Most can't. In Ben's case, we do expect him to complete the drive. At this point in NFL history, there is no worse feeling than having a 4 point lead on the Steelers with 1:34 left go, and Steelers in possession of the ball on their own 30. You are sitting on sharp nails if that is your present situation.
I was actually shocked in 2010 when the Jets prevented Roethlisberger from completing a two-minute comeback drive at the end of their regular season game. I thought Ben was going to do it. My instant reaction was "Damn! Rex is an amazing defensive mind! How did he pull that off?" In most cases, I would be shocked if the QB did pull it off. I would be pissed at the DC if his unit gave up the game-winning drive.
I would much rather see the Packers win the game. If the Steelers win their 7th, it would add greatly to my dismay in life. Still, if you let these guys hang around, they will beat you.
How can the Packers win? I'll tell you how. You must deal with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in precisely the way teams dealt with the young John Elway and the Broncos in the Super Bowl. You have to put them down hard and fast. You slam them right down on the turf and blow their brains out by three scores. You need to blow them out. You can't just beat them. You cannot allow the game to be close. You have to turn on the afterburner full-blast and never shut it down. You must maintain a 3 score lead at all times in the second half. In this situation, the two-minute drill only shortens the margin of victory.
The Patriots certainly blew out the Steelers in precisely this fashion. This is the blue-print for a Packer victory. You can't expect to beat them by four. You have to beat them by 17 or more.
Can this happen in SB XLV? I doubt it. If anyone has the firepower to blow the Steelers it is the Packers, but let's remember, that stellar Packer offense will be facing the #1 ranked scoring defense in the league. I doubt the Steelers will yield that many points. This one is for all the marbles. I doubt the Steelers will lay an egg as they did against the Patriots.
Memo to McCarthy: Open up the playbook. Hit them with the kitchen sink. Make every drive furious. Be aggressive as hell in your play-calling. Score throughout the entire game. Turn on the afterburners full-blast, and keep them on all-game long. Don't shut down the offense. No goose-egg quarters. Try to score on every drive and every play. Don't ever shut it down. You're guys need to chop wood all game long.
Monday, January 24, 2011
In praise of Ben Roethlisberger


The Steelers win, the Jets lost it

Sunday, January 23, 2011
So I am actually going to make a Super Bowl XLV Prediction

As you know, I have had little or no confidence in predictions since the start of this tournament. This is a fluke year. It may even be the ultimate fluke year. Initially, I was not going to attempt a prediction in this season where predictability in the system has fallen to ZERO.
Monday, January 17, 2011
The correct ending to this fuke year
Sunday, January 16, 2011
My Super Bowl Predictions... Shot to hell in one day

Day of upsets
Monday, September 20, 2010
The Pecking Order

Thursday, June 3, 2010
Are the Patriots rebuilding...?

Sometimes I watch the NFL Network and shake my head in disbelief. Last night one of the topics up for discussion was this: Are the Patriots rebuilding? Has the window closed? Is the Patriot way a thing of the past?
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Less than zero credence?
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Are the Steelers worried about Ben Roethlisberger?


There is a famous saying in the NFL, according to Tiny Tom Jackson, and it goes like this.
- One is a fluke
- Two is a pattern
- Three is a serious problem
- Big motorcycle accident screws up the 2006 title defenses
- Accusations of rape in Las Vegas a few months ago, leading to a civil lawsuit.
- Accusations of rape in Georgia, with a criminal investigation in progress.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Time to dump the West Coast Offense in St. Louis
The West Coast allegedly came to St. Louis in the form of Scott Linehan on January 19th of 2006. He was fired after game 4 of the 2008 regular season. Linehan will be forever known as the man who destroyed the Greatest Show on Turf. He destroyed it by getting rid of the Martz offense, which was little more a collection of plays custom tailored to the exact strengths of our offensive players. Linehan jammed our players into his edition of the West Coast system, a complex ball-control passing system based on flexible and adaptive routes. The players, particularly Torry Holt, Issac Bruce and Marc Bulger absolutely hated the system. They made a lot of mistakes. They were used to running exact routes, tailored to their strengths, and they loved it.
Linehan's solution was to get rid of Issac Bruce, try to unload Torry Holt, and stick with Bulger because of his cap number. That failed miserably.
Two years ago, the Rams drafted #2 overall, signifying that we were the 2nd worst team in football. Two years ago we did the same thing. This year are drafting number 1, signifying that we are the worst team in professional football. As I have stated many times on this blog, we are the worst team in professional football for 1 reason: We finished dead last in scoring. This indicates we have the worst offense in the league. So much for the West Coast in St. Louis.
Make no mistake, a large reason for our lack of point production is the West Coast Offensive system. The West Coast is outdated, outmoded and obsolete. It does not work well anymore. As coach Brian Billick says, nobody plays the West Coast offense as Walsh once did. Everybody has absorbed some components of the system, but nobody plays it as the 49ers did. This is because your can't play it as the 49ers did and enjoy success.
The 49er offense worked for a brief period of time and for just two historical reasons. In 1981 we were only 3 years removed from the 1978 rules changes which opened up the passing game. Teams were absolutely bomb-happy. Defenses were deathly afraid of the bomb. Second, we were only really 1 year removed from the epoch of the Steel Curtain defense. Everybody was still emulating the Steeler model of defense. This system was very much like the Tampa-2, dropping safeties back deep to stop big plays. They used their big and bad 4 down linemen to attack the quarterback, without much recourse to the blitz.
The epoch of 1981 to 1990 was just about perfect for dink-n-dunk scheme that Mr. Walsh invented. Most defenses would surrender the short pass to you, not believing that you could march down the field on a collection of mistake-free short passes. To his credit, Bill Belichick was
one of the first guys to realize that this program was lethal if left unchecked.
Belichick's response to the West Coast was simple and beautiful. He decided he would only defend 40 yards of ground from the line of scrimmage. He knew most of the action would occur in the first 15-20 yards from scrimmage. He called this first 20 yards the redzone. This turf would be defended with a hard man-on press coverage. The next 20 yards was called the yellow zone, and it was defended with a soft-zone coverage; a scheme notorious for generating vicious hits. His linebackers were instructed to smother running backs (like Roger Craig) circling out of the backfield. He knew full well that the 49ers had no thought of going deep down the field on a typical play. He understood Joe Montana did not have the arm to throw the football 50 yards down field with accuracy.
When confronted with the Belichick-Box, the only solution is for the Quarterback to (A) Run with the football (B) wait for the deep pass to open up. For a receiver to clear coverage more than 40 yards down field in full pads, more than 5 seconds of good pass-protection is needed. This was tough to come by as Lawrence Taylor and Leonard Marshall were rushing from the same or different sides of the line. Montana tried to hold the ball for more than 5 seconds in the NFC championship game of 1990/1991. Leonard Marshall effectively terminated his career with the 49ers on that day.
The Belichick Box defeats the West Coast offense. It is now the default defensive position for all teams about to play West Coast opponent. If you don't have an All-Pro offensive line, you won't break the box. If you don't have a super-mobile QB, you won't break the box. If you don't have world-class sprinters at the WR position, you won't break the box. This is why the West Coast Offense doesn't work anymore. Too much talent is required to defeat a relatively simple defensive scheme.
Guess what? The dirty little secret the NFL keeps in the closet is that a modified version of the Spread Offense is now the king of all passing attacks in Pro Football. This is the system the New England Patriots have been running since 2007. This is the system that allowed Tom Brady to break the touchdown record with 51. This is the system Ben Rothlisberger has been working in for the past two years. Both participants in this year's Super Bowl also use plenty of spread in their weekly play list.
The Spread Offense has aspects of the West Coast and aspects of the Air Coryell offense embedded with in it. This is a pass-first offense, where you establish the passing game, and then run later. You control the football and gain the lead by passing. Unlike these schemes, it is run out of the Shotgun. You line up with 3, 4 and even 5 wide receivers. Unlike these schemes, it almost always employs the quick-time, or no-huddle offense. Many plays are called at the line of scrimmage. The Spread most resembles what used to be called the Run-N-Shoot offense.
Interestingly enough, the Spread is considered a very QB and Wide Receiver friendly offense. It is flexible and adaptable to the strengths of your players. It is considered simple enough to implement in the short college season with relatively young and inexperienced players.
If this is a Copycat League, teams should emulate success, and anti-imitate failure. One of the most stubbornly run biased teams in the league has been my Rams, and we are officially the worst team in football. The most run biased team in Football is the Jets. They barely made the playoffs at 9-7. The Colts are dead last in rushing (#32) and yet they are the favorite to win this year's Super Bowl.
What does all this tell you?
- 1-15 up to 9-7 is the victory range for run biased teams.
- 9-7 up to 16-0 is the victory range for Spread teams.
- Dump the Run First approach.
- Adopt the Pass First approach.
- Do not force players into a ridged and complex system like the West Coast.
- Adopt a simple and flexible passing scheme like the Spread.
- Tailor the system to fit the strengths of the players, as Mike Martz did.
