Speaking of Calib Hanie...

How about that Virgo kid? A star was almost born, but not quite. Before B.J. Raji's interception return for a touchdown, I had visions of NFL GMs contacting the Bears inquiring about Caleb's availability. There may still be some of that waiting in the wings. The Seahawks have done stranger things.

He gave them quite a spark, and it was damn unlikely too. Of course, the Packer defense gave him short-shrift, but he made them pay for it. As it happens, Hanie finished 2-2: 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Still, he was far more effective than Cutler in this Championship game. He stepped up and answered the bell on a big stage. He wasn't overwhelmed and he didn't fold. That means something.

Would you deal Hanie if a fellow GM comes calling for him? My answer would be "hell no!" Knowing that Todd Collins could not get it done, I would release him immediately, and I would declare Hanie the 2nd stringer in the same breath. Knowing that Cutler is going in for... perhaps... a difficult surgery and intense rehab, I would give Hanie all the snaps in OTAs and mini-camp... presuming there is any such thing in 2011. Until Cutler returns, Hanie is the presumptive #1. Keep him around. Give him a promotion. Let him know he played his way to a reward.

Of course, if Dr. Andrews says no, and if this only a 4 week injury...

Everyone is swinging on Jay Cutler's nuts like Tarzan

As the NFL Network reported in the immediate aftermath of the NFC Championship game, players around the league were swinging on Jay Cutler's nuts like Tarzan during the contest. This continued on ESPN with my #1 pick of 1994, my homeboy Trent Dilfer. Dilfer also swung on Cutler's nuts. The Chicago fans took a page out of Cleveland's book by burning his jersey. {!!!!!}

I felt it was very strange that the Bears brought Cutler back to the sidelines in battle-dress, but I wasn't ready to question Jay or the doctors at that point. The immediate word was "some sort of injury to Cutler's knee..." That is nothing to fool around with. I know the devastation of knee injuries. I've had two knee surgeries in the past 14 months. A knee injury fucks up everything in life.

I find it curious that there was no such talk about Maurkice Pouncey over on the AFC Championship side of the fence. He had a sprained ankle and he missed most of the game. This once again proves that the QB gets entirely too much attention; too much credit when the team wins and too much discredit when they lose. If you are nameless and faceless OL guy, you can leave the game with an ankle problem. Well wishers will pray for your return. If the QB goes down with a knee, we're going to burn his jersey. Naturally this is pure bullshit.

We have confirmation that Jay Cutler has a grade II MCL tear. I think he will be seeing a top-notch surgeon soon. I'll bet that the famed Dr. James R. Andrews will get the call. We'll have to wait and see if Andrews will perform surgery on Cutler, but I wouldn't rule it out. This injury is serious, and nothing to sneeze at. I hope all you guys can taste that stinky foot in your mouth.

If there is a lesson in this, the Bears need to be a little more careful in handling these situations in the future. We have to understanding that there are some very strange politics surrounding the QB position. If Cutler had come out in civilian cloths, on crutches, in an air cast, none of these things would have happened. Seeing him in full dress sent a strange message. When the 3rd string emergency guy came into the game, you should have sent Jay to the locker room. He couldn't come back in anyway.

The Packers make good on the preseason predictions

A guy who makes pre-season predictions about the Super Bowl is on a fools errand. It is a rare thing indeed when we get these predictions right... or even half-right. Whenever it happens, it's amazing thing. The Packers were preseason darlings, and rightfully so, as it happens. We thought they were loaded. We had no idea just how loaded. They were loaded and some.

Do you know that there are 15 Packers on injured reserve? Some of these men are starters and some are backups. Some of the most notable include starting RB Ryan Grant and starting TE JerMichael Finley How this team made it to the Super Bowl with 15 men on injured reserve... Let's just say it beats the hell out of me. McCarthy has to be on the short-short list for NFL Coach of the year.

Many will spin this as the power of the franchise QB, and Rodgers does deserve some credit, but I say this is the power of team work. As coach George Allen said, 40 men together can't loose. You lose 15 to injured reserve and the other 25 must step up. They did. Look where it got them.

So I am actually going to make a Super Bowl XLV Prediction

As you know, I have had little or no confidence in predictions since the start of this tournament. This is a fluke year. It may even be the ultimate fluke year. Initially, I was not going to attempt a prediction in this season where predictability in the system has fallen to ZERO.

I thought better of it on Friday at work. I drew an NFC/AFC championship bracket on the big white board in our programmer's section of the office. I made my predictions. I was going to chose the Bears and the Jets, both underdogs on Las Vegas betting lines. I felt this was the righteous conclusion to the ultimate fluke year.

The Jets went on the board with ease, despite the fact that I was wearing a Kevin Greene Steeler jersey. [Kevin was initially my favorite player on the Rams, and he is now coaching the Blood Line for the Packers. He should be in the hall of fame.]

As I went to the board to write the Bears into the NFC bracket for Super Bowl XLV, a still small voice warned me not to do it. An invisible hand seemed to hold me back. I tried to write the Bears in again. Once again, my hand was stayed. I decided it was foolish to mess with the feelings of trepidation I had about picking the Bears. I figured I had been warned. I wrote in the Packers.

So there you have folks, my prediction: Packers vs. Jets in Super Bowl XLV. Is this a fitting end to the ultimate fluke year? I think so. You will have a pair of #6 seeds climbing to the summit, winning all their games on the road. The odds against that are pretty astronomical. This is a pretty damn good fluke, even though one of the two favorites will win (if this prediction is correct).

I would really rather chose the Bears. Lovie Smith and Mike Martz are are old Ram coaches. I would very much like to see them win the Super Bowl. It will make up for the horror of Super Bowl XXXVI... in some small measure. I will rejoice if you guys win it. Still, I just can't seem to make that pick.

Let's hope for some great games.

The correct ending to this fuke year

As you know, predictability in the NFL Playoff system has reached a point fairly close to ZERO. If every game were an upset, we would simply pick the team least likely to win under normal conditions. However, a few teams have won at home. A few higher seeds have taken down lower seeds. This greatly increases the noise in the system. The signal to noise ratio has almost bottomed out.

I am sure Las Vegas is awash in money. 2011 is already one hell of a good year for Vegas. Some poor benighted souls think Vegas only makes money if they pick the winners correctly. Not true. Perish the thought! Vegas makes money when more than 50% of the dollars wagered ride on a loosing proposition. This is a very different formula.

Speaking of putting money on a losing formula... Only a few stupid suckers put money down on the Jets yesterday. All the smart money was on the Patriots. This is why all the bookies in Vegas awoke this morning with happy Christmas smiles on their faces. They feel it is a great day to be alive and be an American. I'll tell you one thing: This is a great day to be alive and be an American if you are a heretic/apostate unbeliever in Jesus Bellichick.

But I digress... We're in trouble folks. Picking favorites in these conference championship games is going be a trecherous affair.

If we say that the best approach is to select by record, seed, and homefield advantage, the Bears play the Steelers in SB45. That is a dangerous pick in this year of the fluke. If we say that the worst possible approach is to chose by record and seed, the Packers play the Jets. Of course, this may yet happen in the year of the fluke. If we crosswire for the most powerful looking teams, we will probably chose the Packers and Steelers, in a battle of used-to-was dynasties in rather small markets.

Now if we chose for the most unlikely combo of teams possible, we will honor the year of the fluke, and pick the Bears vs Jets. Surely, this is a matchup that elitists like Colin Cowherd will utterly detest. These two teams have a total of two Lombardi trophies between them. They have done it, but they are two least storied franchises we have left. What mythological storylines of NFL Royalty and Nobility will the elitist tell in the two weeks leading up to the Bears v Jets?

Maybe they will declare that the meek have inherited the earth? You know the news guys are always praying for the big story. They are cheering for a good hype line.

On the other hand, New York will be battling Chicago, and that should generate plenty of ratings. The big city press machines are going to love that. In the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, you should tell the story of the rivalry between New York and Chicago... not just in sports, but all things Americana. You can start with Pizza and work up to Steakhouses.

Of course, Los Angeles cannot participate because we just don't have any football teams here. Tough shit.

Do we dare to pick the Bears v Jets...?

The upset of all upsets in this fluke year

Jets ruin the Patriots 28-21

So we have the final and ultimate confirmation that we are living in a fluke year. The odds-on favorite to win the whole schmahola has gone down in flames. The Patriots go 14-2 and then one and done. It’s all over.

This constitutes the 3^rd straight playoff loss for the Patriots going back to Super Bowl 42. I told you the dynasty ended when the Comish handed the precious to the Giants. You didn’t believe me, did you? That’s your fault, not mine.

You do remember that I protested the early crowning of Patriots don't you? You do remember that I spelled out in detail why the Patriots were very over-rated. I also picked the Ravens to do them, but that might have been more honorable than the Jet's doing them.

For the Jets, this only proves that he who laughs last, laughs best. I'm laughing like hell right now, right along with you.

Moreover, Tom Brady did not play well. He shot 29 for 45 for 299 yards 2 TDs and 1 Int. His efficiency rating was sub 90. Sure, that’s good if you are playing with a formerly 1-15 team that has no receivers, but this is not the canonized saint of quarterbacks we were so recently hearing about. The NFL Network started a new hype line suggesting we were going to have to openly declare Brady the #1 QB in the history of the sport just as soon as he completed his SB45 championship run. Smarts like hell doesn’t it pal? You took a hard shot to the shitter there.

In all seriousness, there is one guy at ESPN who is not crying in the depths of catastrophic depression right now. Just one, mind you. That man is Chris Berman. As you know, I recently chastised him for being a party to this pre-playoff crowning of the Patriots. He was, but in sooth, Chris is a big Jet fan. He always has been. He says he is a sports caster today because he was sitting in the bleachers of Shea Stadium New York when the Jets upset the Oakland Raiders in the AFL championship game. This was the one that set the Broadway Joe Jets on course to win Super Bowl III.

You know Chris is partying like its 1999 right now. I’m happy for you and I am happy for the league. Moreover, I will be very happy to hear Colin Cowherd try to beg his way out of this one. Cowherd is a bootlicking, servile, ass-kissing, obsequious, fawning, brown-nosing Bellichick sycophant, and I’m pretty tired of it.

You know there is going to be hell to pay for this, don’t you Cowherd?

In all seriousness, all of the Bellichick sycophants… errrr… sports reporters at the four-letter network should be subjected to four hundred hours of Chinese water torcher for this loss of objectivity.

The Bears smack-down the Seahawks

But I get ahead of myself…

There was an earlier game this morning, and in it, a couple of old Ram coaches drove the Bears one step closer to the Super Bowl. This was the only non-upset of the weekend, in my estimation. Lovie Smith and Mike Martz got the Bears to do what they were supposed to do, and they smacked the Seahawks.

I must say that Jay Cutler looked awfully good in this game. I guess this shows what a triangle of Taurus dudes can accomplish together. You got three bulls yoked together here (Smith, Martz and Cutler) and they have some real torque.

How good is the job Mike Martz is doing with young Cutler? If you compare the footage of this playoff game vs. Seattle to that of the Thursday Night game against the 49ers last season, there is simply no comparison. In that 49er game, Cutler was throwing the ball into crowds of red shirts for no apparent reason. In this one he looked like a damn fine QB. This is the Martz effect folks.

Mike Lombardi is fond of saying that few men are qualified to evaluate the QB position, and fewer still are qualified to coach that position. I think it time we say that Mike Martz is the best coach (still coaching) with this very rare talent. If Mike Holmgren were still actively working Colt McCoy every day, we would probably have to give him priority.

Harvey Unga

So they held the NFL Supplemental Draft yesterday. Running back Harvey Unga was selected by the Chicago Bears in the 7th round. This means the bears forfeit their 7th rounder in the 2011 draft.

That is precious little to give up for such a running back. The 2011 draft is going to be a pretty dry well. A lot good sophomores came out this season. Even more juniors. Since 2007 was not a good High School recruiting class, 2011 is going to feature a depleted stock of just about everything. It will also feature a few one-season wonders. I don't know which is worse: A depleted stock, or a collection one-season hits.

This is a long way of saying the Bears gave up next to nothing to get Unga.

At just under 6'1" and about 244 pounds, Unga is a punisher with the ability to break some tackles and continue down field. The Bears are reportedly planning to use Unga as a blocking fullback. This is not the role he played in college, where he was the prime rock-runner. This is not the role most scouts projected for him. It is somewhat questionable what role he will fulfill in the Mike Martz offense. Mad Mike is extremely flexible in his approach, but he tends to go with a 3 receiver set and no fullback.

Some say Unga will have to fight for a roster spot. This is not unusual. Most 7th rounders do have to fight for a roster spot. Furthermore, as ESPN has reported, just 38 players have been taken in the Supplemental Draft since its inception in 1977. Of those 38 players, eight were running backs. Four of those never actually played in the league. The other four totaled only 3,809 yards and 20 touchdowns.

The Denver Broncos selected Bobby Humphrey in the 1st round of the 1989 Supplemental draft. He responding by accounting for 75 percent of the yards and all but five of the touchdowns. Humphrey, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 1989 and 1990, is the only running back chosen in the supplemental draft ever to register a Pro Bowl appearance. By 2005, Terrel Davis had taken his place.

Unga was considered by many to be worthy of a 3rd round draft choice. The St. Louis Rams were rumored (by the TurfShowTimes.com) to be one of several interested parties. Given the fact that they just drafted a top-end surgically repaired rookie QB, and given the fact that they have only one top-end surgically repaired Steven Jackson backing him, the argument made sense. Yet draft day came and went an the Rams made no move.

This is a continuation of a collection of the largely incomprehensible moves made by Billy Devaney. Given the Rams' need for a running back committee, and given the extreme poverty of the 2011 draft, you would guess that the Rams would be willing to spend a 7th round supplemental pick on Unga

No, evidently not. I am sure the folks at TurfShowTimes are extremely disappointed this morning. I don't blame them. This is why I quit folks. I have zip, zero, zilch, nada, no confidence in Billy Devaney. I do not believe the guy is competent, and I don't think he is seeking a winner roster. I think Buttism is his key philosophy. He is doing the butt-minimum mandatory things necessary to put some butts in the seats and keep his job. Only this and nothing more.

But this is none of my business. I should butt out. What butt-minimalists do is none of my business.

How 'bout da Bears?

The Bears mad a big splash in free agency this year acquiring the top two free agents on the board: Chester Taylor and Julius Peppers. The also got former Ram Brandon Manumaleuna. These were all good acquisition, but the most important acquisition this year is Mad Mike Martz, one of my favorite guys in the entire world. You know why. I don't need to explain that statement.

So what are the chances for the Bears this season. Regrettably, I don't think they are that good. Chicago is going to be caught in the middle of a prize fight between two heavy weights in the NFC: the Vikings and the Packers. Unfortunate, they still have big problems on the offense line. I truly believe that the Bear offensive line was Jay Cutler's downfall last season. You can't blame a QB who gets such dreadful protection.

There is another and more important issue. At the time Cutler was acquired by the Bears last season, former Bear QB Jim McMahon did an interview for Myers and Hartman. McMahon issued the disclaimer that he is no longer closely following NFL football, but he still has some savvy about the Bears. He said he loved Cutler's talent and skill, but he serious doubted that Cutler would continue to produce as he did in Denver.

You see Chicago has always been a run-first smash-mouth franchise, and there is a reason for that fact. The team plays in an open air stadium, on the shores of Lake Michigan. They have one of the worst facilities in the league, especially in the merry merry months of November and December, where the playoff shakeout always occurs. [San Francisco has the absolute worst facility in the League.] Given the cosmic wind that comes off lake Michigan and the outer-space cold the players endure, it is extremely difficult to throw the football well during November and December in Chicago. As an organization, the Bears have never trusted any QB to throw the football that much. They have always built and rebuilt themselves as a nasty smash-mouth running team.

Fans in Chicago could be heard beginning a discourse about getting a Domed stadium shortly thereafter.

Ergo, the two biggest factors militating against The Greatest Show on Turf in Chicago are:

1. The lack of offensive linemen
2. The dreadful cold wind coming off the shores of Lake Michigan.

You have to admit, both of these factors are going fuck with Mike Martz's vertical passing attack. I think Cutler is the most talented QB that Mike Martz has yet worked with; though we should have caution that there is a lot more to being NFL QB that pure physical talent, or even mechanical polish. If talent was all you needed, Brady Quinn would have made it in this league. You also have a natural turf field and a lack of wide receivers working against you. These are not the conditions under which you launch a Greatest Show on Turf attack.

I recently saw Jeff Joniak on NFL Total access, and he was quite sanguine about the Bears' offensive prospects. He felt they had a shot at scoring 30 points per game. I honestly doubt it. You need some linemen and some better receivers for that task. Mike only achieved this feat once in his career, and that was in St. Louis. Those were 'Perfect Storm' conditions also.

I wish you guys lot of luck. I want Mike and Lovie to be successful together again. I think you will win more than you did last year. As far as taking out both the Vikings and the Packers... I don't think so. Provided that the Lions have an excellent defensive draft, they will be more troublesome also.

Perhaps two more victories and a 9-7 record. I think the Bears will be a lot more competitive with top end teams. I think they will be a lot more threatening than last season, when they really struggled. I felt the Bears were fortunate to go 7-9 given the degree of their struggles last season. You guys struggled to beat my Rams. That was not impressive. Ergo, I think we can reasonably say that the 2009 Bear team finished with a soft 7-9 record. However, I just don't see a very soft 7-9 turning into more than a robust 9-7 this year.

Orlando Pace has been released by the Bears

And I do believe he will retire. His next stop is the Hall of Fame. I am glad he is so well thought of by everyone. Nobody objected when the question was laid out yesterday. During the prime of his career, everyone believed Pace would be a Hall of Famer, but often times what we think then doesn't persist now.

I am glad Pace's legend has continued and grown a bit. Contrary to popular myth, he did not invent the pankcake block, but he was a mauler. I remember the great days of Marshall Faulk running left to kill the clock after one massacre or another. (We used to humiliate our opponent.) Pace would knock his man 8-10 yards down field. Marshall could do a lot with a block like that. It is regrettable that Marshall was not on the NFL Network yesterday to comment on Pace's release.

Some folks are objecting to this release, declaring that the Bears have their heads up their yin-yangs. I regret to say it is not so. The Rams had the worst line in football in 2007 and 2008. We played 2007 without Pace. With played 2008 with him. With him or without him, we had the worst line. In 2009 we released Orlando. You don't think that a team with the worst line in football would release a future Hall of Famer--and one of their emblematic players--if he had anything left, do you? Regrettably, Pace did not have anything left.

My first glimpse of Orlando in a Chicago Bear uniform involved Elvis Dummervil running around him like crazy on route to smashing Jay Cutler. Cutler was not a happy man. I did not know much about Elvis at that time. I was horrified that this half-stack of pancakes was making Pace and Cutler miserable. Later I learned that Elvis was quite a pass rusher. Still, if he had faced Pace in his prime, Pace would have squashed him like a bug. In short, I understand Chicago's decision to do this.

This does not change the glum feeling I have right now. Another charter member of The Greatest Show on Turf is now out of the NFL. Issac Bruce retired also at the end of 2009. I don't know if Dre Bly will be back with the 49ers. Torry Holt was released by Jacksonville, and he is trying to catch on with Chicago right now. So far, the Bears have not made a move. I am not absolutely certain, but I am close to certain that this would make London Fletcher and Leondard Little the very last members of our championship team still active in the NFL. If Jeff Zgonina catches on somewhere, he will also be a survivor. All of our offensive players will be gone if Holt doesn't catch on somewhere.

There is something elliptical here. The last time we drafted #1 overall, we took Pace. As we prepare to draft #1 again this year, Pace leaves the league. It is almost like the Land of the Lost. The books must be balanced: One enters, one leaves. I guess I have a sense of optimism that a new epoch is dawning, but there is also a glum reminder that much time has passed since our glory year, and we have little to show for it.

If we draft Tebow, we'll be trading our sorrows and our shame for the joy of the Lord.

What the Chicago Bear fans should expect from Mike Martz

The other day, I heard Michael Lombardi predicting success for Jay Culter now that he will be function in Mike Martz's offensive system. Michael praised Mike's system, declaring that it was proven to raise the fortunes of just about any Quarterback. Very few are qualified to evaluate the QB, and even fewer are qualified to coach him. Mike Martz is one of those guys.

I agree with the latter statement, but the former is predicated on a bit of a misunderstanding.

There is no Mike Martz system, per se. The secret is that there is no secret. Mike is against the notion of an "offensive system", in the sense that a fellow like Bill Walsh would define the term. Martz custom tailors the offense to fit the personnel that he has. The game plan is always the same: Use motion and formation to put my biggest play makers against your biggest weaknesses. The game plan is just a collection of plays Mike thinks will work in this regard. Now, he does want to pass first, and pass aggressively to get the lead, but this is a very general idea.

Now, you may want to call that a system, but I wouldn't. It is more a philosophy about using whatever playmakers you have on hand. A documentary was recently published by a bunch of Astronomers titled "Journey to the Edge of the Universe". The funny thing is that they would be the first to tell you that there is no such thing as "the edge of the Universe". Ergo, the title is just a catchy title. That is all. Calling Mike Martz's approach a system is similar to talk about "the edge of the universe". It is a catchy title, but there is no such thing.

The reason why Mike is so consistently successful in raising the fortunes of offenses and teams is pretty straightforward: He is not one of these fucked up egomaniacs who want to replace all the players he's got so he can obtain guys who will run his highly dogmatic system. Such coaches always guarantee you several years of turmoil and rebuilding (which might be necessary anyhow). West Coast coaches are these kinds of coaches, in general. Lombardites are absolutely those kinds of coaches. They'll cut all kinds of good playmakers to clean house and implement their power-running attack. I hate those little fuckers with all my heart and soul.

Mike doesn't need to cut everybody and start over. He will look hard and long at the abilities of his men. He will figure out what they do best. He will figure out how to employ those abilities to the fullest. He will create formations, plays and motion that will let you shine. You can understand why Mike is a very popular guy with his men, and you can understand why head coaches feel threatened by him.

I am going to tell you flat out: Dogmatic systematic coaches are the worst thing possible for your organization. Flexible and adaptive coaches who use the talent you have on hand are the best thing possible for your organization. Scott Linehan was a dogmatic systematic coach, and he will forever be known as the guy who killed the Greatest Show on Turf, the Show Mike Martz created.