What 5 non-playoff teams from 2010 will make the playoffs in 2011

Presuming we have a season in 2011, we can expect most of our statistical averages play out as per usual.

Usually, we laugh like hell at fans who expect the playoff picture next year to look exactly like it did last year. The reason is pretty straightforward. Each year and every year, about 5 teams who did not make the playoffs the year before make it this year. Since this is a zero sum game, the inverse is also true.

Consider 2010. After two years out of the playoffs, the Seahawks were in. After two years in, the Cardinals were out. After one year out, the Steelers were back in. After one year in the Bengals were out. After a couple of years out, the Packers were in won the whole shebang. After a couple of years in, the Vikings were down and out.

The take home message is pretty simple: The playoff picture changes every single year. There are no instant replays in the playoff picture from year to year.

Rich Eisen, Jamie Dukes and Trent Green kicked this can around on NFL Total Access tonight. Jamie and Trent each produced a list of 5 teams they thought would make the playoffs in 2011. Consult the NFL.com for video. They may yet put that one up on the site.

I thought I would quickly put my list of playoff teams up and explain why some folks still won't win it.

1. Giants
2. Texans
3. Rams
4. Bucs
5. Lions

Why the Giants? Only the Eagles look like a playoff team to me in the East, but they are vulnerable and beatable. I like the Giants to resign Plaxico and find their mojo center again.

Why the Texans? I think their defensive crew is better than advertised, and their LBs are better for the 3-4 than some suppose. They need a secondary, but everything else looks pretty decent. I like Wade Phillips to fix their defense well enough to allow a 6 seed in the AFC tournament.

Why the Rams? I like Sam Bradford's return to the Spread with Josh McDaniels. I think we will find a way to fix our wide receiver problems. We don't have much in the way of opposition in the NFC West. I like my Rams to take the 4 seed, despite a tough schedule.

Why the Bucs? I already spelled this out in an early blog entry. I think they have a fundamentally sound crew on offense. I like their chances of finishing their front four defensively in this year's draft. If they finish their line this year, they will have a good defense this year. I think they will be clutch in key moments, despite a tougher schedule in 2011.

Why the Lions? They Lions have big play makers on offense. They need offensive linemen like a dying man needs water in the desert, but I will trust them to do this in the draft in a few days. Surely they cannot be stupid enough to leave young Matt Stafford unprotected for a 3rd straight season?

Now let me discard some popular picks from Trent and Jamie, and tell you why. Here are the teams picked to make the playoffs this season who will not:

1. The Chargers
2. The 49ers
3. The Cowboys

Why not the Chargers? Stick a fork in, their done. I mean done and done. Forget about it. Done. I've already gone over this ad nauseum. Believe me, I do like the Chargers, but this group has categorically missed its window. They are on the downslope. Smith is on a serious loosing streak in the draft. He is the reverse of the Jets. He moves up at grotesque prices and misses.

Why the 49ers? Folks, with their lousy offensive chemistry, no change at the trigger-man, the loss of their defensive brain Mike Singletary, and a brand new coaching administration you can forget about these guys. The first year in the WCO is a bitch. I have no idea in the world how you can fuckin' pick these guys. These guys are going no where.

I was shocked when I heard a very intelligent dude like Trent Green proposing the notion the 49ers have playmakers. Why in the world would that matter if they have lousy chemistry and unit cohesion? Everyone is in a massive state of denial about the 49ers offensive skill personnel. I am telling you: They need a full skill-position clean and flush. Keep the offensive line, rebuild completely at your skill positions.

Right now, it looks like the 49er plan is to bring in a new coach and keep the same failed crew. It ain't gonna work folks. This is the scheme of a Busch-League organization. They have already brought in a hit parade of good coaches to coach these offensive bums. It ain't working.

Why the Cowboys? Finally! An interesting question! Folks, listen to Michael Irvin. The same fuckers who quit on the Cowboys are still on the roster right now. This is partially a consequence of the lock-out, but I don't think they can completely excise the cancer in a quick-time off-season disrupted by this lockout. The Cowboys' problems are deeper than many think. I am also concerned that Jerry might not do enough to fix their offensive line this season. What if Nick Fairley shows up at 9? What then?

There you have it folks

In praise of Ben Roethlisberger

Suddenly all of the media pundits have discovered that Ben Roethlisberger is a great QB. Suddenly, Ben is better than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Suddenly, he is most clutch guy in the NFL, and the dude you want in that life & death moment at the end of the game. Suddenly, there is a great out-pouring of praise for Ben Roethlisberger.

Where the fuck were you two years ago when Ben Roethlisberger out-dueled Kurt Warner in the Super Bowl? I though Kurt slew him. Ben popped right back up and led his team on the game winning drive. That hurt me like hell by the way.

This wasn't the first time Ben had done such a thing either. Far from it. He stole a bunch of games en route to the Super Bowl. He's been stealing games right and left in the final moments for quite some time now. They should call them the Stealers.

In case you don't remember, Ben was in deep shit a year ago. The Steelers were trying to trade him to my Rams. I wrote about this subject two or three times on Bleacher Report. You can find these pieces, written more than year ago, where I said that Ben was a clutch guy, and very under-rated. I also said he was greazie-basterd.

I am very ambivalent about Ben Roethlisberger. He embodies the best and the worst of the Pisces guy, which is what he is. I am a Virgo with Virgo rising. Pisces is on my 7th house. I am fundimentally biased to partner-up with a dude like Roethlisberger in just about any enterprise, especially football.

At the same time I say this, Roethlisberger manifests all those negative qualities of Pisces I have written about. He drinks like a champion, and this is why the comish sent him to rehab. He manifests impared jugement in situations away from the field. He's a morally grungy dude, and you know exactly what I am talking about. He does not analyze or assess risk correctly. This is both his strength and his weakness. On the field he is not afraid to gunsling. Off the field he is not afraid to continue gunslinging by other means.

There are two Ben Roethlisbergers: the guy you love and the guy you hate. He is like two fish lashed together at their tails, swimming in opposite directions, against each other. Incidentally, this is symbolic image of Pisces, which is what Ben is.

You might ask the following question: how can a conservative, analytical, hermit, Virgo partner-up with and risk-assessment impaired Pisces gun-slinger? It beats the hell out of me, par, but I've done it more than once in my life. I know it happens. It just happens naturally. We wind up in the same room somehow, and they have a tendency to seek me out. We gravitate together, and we strike up a partnership. We are opposites, but we form a complentary tao.

There is a saying in Spanish that goes "God makes them and they get together on their own." This is said whenever you see any strange partnership that seems to work. Pisces & Virgo are kind of like Don Quixote and Sancho Panza.

Just to give you one example: My current employers hired me because the most senior programmer in the shop just happened to be a Pisces from New Delhi, India. For some strange reason or another, he had a strong feeling that I was the candidate he wanted for the job. The bosses were not too keen on the idea. He advocated my case, and told the bosses I was the guy they had to hire. I found out a year later he was a 3/6/1970 Pisces dude. It turns out his brother is a Virgo. It turns out my brother is a Pisces. Go figure.

Incidentally, Terry Bradshaw is a Virgo and rolled with a bunch of Pisces partners including Franco Harris, Rockie Blier, Lynn Swann, and Mike Webster. No bullshit. Check it out, prove me wrong, then go figure. For whatever reason, we partner up.

The Steelers win, the Jets lost it

The Steelers did precisely the thing I believed they would not do in this game: They ran their way to a massive 24-0 lead in the first half. They were able to parachute to victory from that high vantage point.

Everything went wrong for the Jets in the first half... except for a single field goal. The Jets roared back in the second half, making the final 24-19, but they fell short. They could not overcome their bad start.

The Steelers go for the 8th time

I wish I could be happy about the Steelers making it to an 8th Super Bowl. They do have some likable characters, and great relationship with their people. I just feel that it is a touch too much. I've seen enough of these guys for the rest of eternity.

I should be glad if they win. All the Bellichick sycophants will have trouble defending the notion that they are the team of the decade. The Steeler fans will argue with them. This could be the decade with two teams of the decade. That would fuck up things royally.

Fortunately, I think the Packers will spare us of this fate.

Still, the notion of the Steelers getting a 7th trophy really pisses me off. This seems like too much for anyone team at this point.

In truth, the Steelers just can't help it. The Steelers play in the inferior AFC, where many rooty-poots dwell. Naturally, the Steeler organization is the best of the best in this Busch-league. In this setting, a great organization like the Steelers will go more often than anyone else. No other organization has the Steeler's commitment to excellence on the AFC side.

This means you, Al. Stick that in your silvery sash and smoke it with your black mustache.

Think about this folks, the Marque franchises from the early days of the AFL/AFC such as the Chiefs, Raiders and Dolphins have basically rolled over and died. {The Chiefs are coming back now} Latter-day AFC powerhouses, such as the Broncos, are in a state of shambles. Bellichick is trying to rebuild his Patriots. Rex is trying to reform Jet culture completely.

There are many Busch-league organizations in the AFC. We know that this is a very lopsided conference with a few greats franchises committed to winning decade-in and decade-out. Just remember: The Steelers are the old NFL, not the AFL. The Packers were playing the Steelers in the old NFL long before the AFL was ever founded.

So I am actually going to make a Super Bowl XLV Prediction

As you know, I have had little or no confidence in predictions since the start of this tournament. This is a fluke year. It may even be the ultimate fluke year. Initially, I was not going to attempt a prediction in this season where predictability in the system has fallen to ZERO.

I thought better of it on Friday at work. I drew an NFC/AFC championship bracket on the big white board in our programmer's section of the office. I made my predictions. I was going to chose the Bears and the Jets, both underdogs on Las Vegas betting lines. I felt this was the righteous conclusion to the ultimate fluke year.

The Jets went on the board with ease, despite the fact that I was wearing a Kevin Greene Steeler jersey. [Kevin was initially my favorite player on the Rams, and he is now coaching the Blood Line for the Packers. He should be in the hall of fame.]

As I went to the board to write the Bears into the NFC bracket for Super Bowl XLV, a still small voice warned me not to do it. An invisible hand seemed to hold me back. I tried to write the Bears in again. Once again, my hand was stayed. I decided it was foolish to mess with the feelings of trepidation I had about picking the Bears. I figured I had been warned. I wrote in the Packers.

So there you have folks, my prediction: Packers vs. Jets in Super Bowl XLV. Is this a fitting end to the ultimate fluke year? I think so. You will have a pair of #6 seeds climbing to the summit, winning all their games on the road. The odds against that are pretty astronomical. This is a pretty damn good fluke, even though one of the two favorites will win (if this prediction is correct).

I would really rather chose the Bears. Lovie Smith and Mike Martz are are old Ram coaches. I would very much like to see them win the Super Bowl. It will make up for the horror of Super Bowl XXXVI... in some small measure. I will rejoice if you guys win it. Still, I just can't seem to make that pick.

Let's hope for some great games.