Jamie Dukes and Philip Rivers: Opposites attract.

I'm going to start this blog in a somewhat strange way: With a tale about my dad. My dad has been divorced for about two years now, and recently he has been thinking about re-entering the market. Believe it or not, market conditions are pretty good for an old man.

Since I have been on an astrology kick lately, he asked me what sort of woman he aught to go after. My dad just happens to be a Sagittarius, so I told him that his strongest attraction would be to a Gemini woman. You see, Gemini and Sagittarius are 180 degree opposites. Geminis are born in late may (right now) and June. Sagittarians are born in late November and early December. They are half a year away from each other.

Opposites attract. Opposites have the most powerful attraction. Negatively charged magnets go after positively charged magnets. High Ph. goes after low Ph. Heat seeks cold. Air fills a vacuum. Negatively charged electrons orbit around positively charged protons. We're talking about physical laws here folks. There is some real science behind this theory folks.

Pop wasn't too pleased with that answer. He had recently had a bad experience with a Gemini woman he had high hopes for. The mere fact that he had had this experience and high hopes was proof positive of the theory, but he wasn't prepared to hear this. Of course, I understood him completely. I have suffered these disappointed with my opposite numbers as well.

A couple hours later, after grilling with some friends, the two of us are watching a corny but fun cult comedy called Highway to Hell (1991) brought to you by Stiller Clan (Jerry, Ben, Amy and mama Anne Meara). Suddenly, an actress named Pamela Gidley makes her entrance. My dad sits up sharply and has an instant synastry reaction. He immediately asks "Who's that girl!" I whup out my trusty Thunderbolt and look her up on the imdb.com app.

I immediately crack up laughing "Guess what, Pop? You just reacted big-time to a Gemini woman. Pamela Gidley was born June 11, 1965 in Methuen, Mass." He looked a little disconcerted. Maybe the magic works after all?

Now let's move on to the NFL Network. Rich Eisen asks Jamie Dukes and Warren Sapp who should be favored to win the AFC West in 2011... presuming there is a 2011.

[Incidentally, Dukes is a Gemini and Sapp is a Sagittarius. They work very well together despite being on opposite sides of the line and the Zodiac.]

Immeidately, Dukes declares the San Diego Chargers. I immediately bust up laughing. Dukes is a broken record on this subject. Rich Eisen challenges him sharply, asking Dukes to justify his statement. Like me, Rich Eisen just doesn't believe in the Chargers anymore. I don't know how you can believe in the Chargers. I think they are ripe for the wheels to fall off in 2011. If you ask me, they are clearly on the downslope.

Dukes centers his faith in the Chargers upon the very person of Christ Jesus... er... Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers is the marquee player and the only franchise QB in that entire division. Philip Rivers is the guarantor of the Chargers' supremacy in the AFC West. Rich wasn't buying it. Neither was I.

Why is Jamie Dukes to irrefutably sold on Philip Rivers that he believes the guy can single-handedly win the AFC West? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Jamie Dukes was born on June 14, 1964 and Philip Rivers was born on December 8, 1981. Jamie is a Gemini and Philip is a Sagittarius. There is a powerful oppositional affinity there folks.

Now, Philip has plenty of merit. This guy consistently ranks as one of the top passers in the league. He's a hell of a good leader too. Dukes isn't just pissing in the wind when he says this is a marquee QB. However, most of the rest of us are not so enamored with the guy that we think he can do it all by himself as the rest of the franchise falls down around his ears. Jamie is and does.

So are you saying that Jamie Dukes's predictions for the Chargers is based entirely on an irrational confidence in Philip Rivers born out of oppositional affinity? Yep, that's precisely what I am saying. It's completely irrational to believe Philip Rivers can win the AFC West single handed. Jamie thinks Philip can win it single-handed due to oppositional affinity.

I, too, know the problems of oppositional affinity. When the Steelers called the Rams trying to deal Ben Roethlisberger, I was just about ready to listen to that deal. Ben just happens to be a Pisces and I happen to be a Virgo.

Several times during this draft season, I stiffled myself as I was preparing to sing the praises of Christian Ponder. He happens to be a Pisces also. I still think Ponder can turn into a heck of a good QB, but as I write that line, I am a little concerned that I may be biased due to oppositional affinity. I also happened to be the guy who spear-headed the Draft Trent Dilfer campaign in St. Louis back in 1994. Yep, Trent is not just from my home-town college, he's also a Pisces.

Oppositional affinity is powerful thing folks. This is nothing to be trifled with or dismissed easily. Nobody will excite, disappoint, overjoy, or infuriate you more than your opposite number from around the other side of the year. They get under you skin big time.

Just ask Terry Bradshaw why Lynn Swann was his favorite receiver when he had John Stallworth on the other side.

What 5 non-playoff teams from 2010 will make the playoffs in 2011

Presuming we have a season in 2011, we can expect most of our statistical averages play out as per usual.

Usually, we laugh like hell at fans who expect the playoff picture next year to look exactly like it did last year. The reason is pretty straightforward. Each year and every year, about 5 teams who did not make the playoffs the year before make it this year. Since this is a zero sum game, the inverse is also true.

Consider 2010. After two years out of the playoffs, the Seahawks were in. After two years in, the Cardinals were out. After one year out, the Steelers were back in. After one year in the Bengals were out. After a couple of years out, the Packers were in won the whole shebang. After a couple of years in, the Vikings were down and out.

The take home message is pretty simple: The playoff picture changes every single year. There are no instant replays in the playoff picture from year to year.

Rich Eisen, Jamie Dukes and Trent Green kicked this can around on NFL Total Access tonight. Jamie and Trent each produced a list of 5 teams they thought would make the playoffs in 2011. Consult the NFL.com for video. They may yet put that one up on the site.

I thought I would quickly put my list of playoff teams up and explain why some folks still won't win it.

1. Giants
2. Texans
3. Rams
4. Bucs
5. Lions

Why the Giants? Only the Eagles look like a playoff team to me in the East, but they are vulnerable and beatable. I like the Giants to resign Plaxico and find their mojo center again.

Why the Texans? I think their defensive crew is better than advertised, and their LBs are better for the 3-4 than some suppose. They need a secondary, but everything else looks pretty decent. I like Wade Phillips to fix their defense well enough to allow a 6 seed in the AFC tournament.

Why the Rams? I like Sam Bradford's return to the Spread with Josh McDaniels. I think we will find a way to fix our wide receiver problems. We don't have much in the way of opposition in the NFC West. I like my Rams to take the 4 seed, despite a tough schedule.

Why the Bucs? I already spelled this out in an early blog entry. I think they have a fundamentally sound crew on offense. I like their chances of finishing their front four defensively in this year's draft. If they finish their line this year, they will have a good defense this year. I think they will be clutch in key moments, despite a tougher schedule in 2011.

Why the Lions? They Lions have big play makers on offense. They need offensive linemen like a dying man needs water in the desert, but I will trust them to do this in the draft in a few days. Surely they cannot be stupid enough to leave young Matt Stafford unprotected for a 3rd straight season?

Now let me discard some popular picks from Trent and Jamie, and tell you why. Here are the teams picked to make the playoffs this season who will not:

1. The Chargers
2. The 49ers
3. The Cowboys

Why not the Chargers? Stick a fork in, their done. I mean done and done. Forget about it. Done. I've already gone over this ad nauseum. Believe me, I do like the Chargers, but this group has categorically missed its window. They are on the downslope. Smith is on a serious loosing streak in the draft. He is the reverse of the Jets. He moves up at grotesque prices and misses.

Why the 49ers? Folks, with their lousy offensive chemistry, no change at the trigger-man, the loss of their defensive brain Mike Singletary, and a brand new coaching administration you can forget about these guys. The first year in the WCO is a bitch. I have no idea in the world how you can fuckin' pick these guys. These guys are going no where.

I was shocked when I heard a very intelligent dude like Trent Green proposing the notion the 49ers have playmakers. Why in the world would that matter if they have lousy chemistry and unit cohesion? Everyone is in a massive state of denial about the 49ers offensive skill personnel. I am telling you: They need a full skill-position clean and flush. Keep the offensive line, rebuild completely at your skill positions.

Right now, it looks like the 49er plan is to bring in a new coach and keep the same failed crew. It ain't gonna work folks. This is the scheme of a Busch-League organization. They have already brought in a hit parade of good coaches to coach these offensive bums. It ain't working.

Why the Cowboys? Finally! An interesting question! Folks, listen to Michael Irvin. The same fuckers who quit on the Cowboys are still on the roster right now. This is partially a consequence of the lock-out, but I don't think they can completely excise the cancer in a quick-time off-season disrupted by this lockout. The Cowboys' problems are deeper than many think. I am also concerned that Jerry might not do enough to fix their offensive line this season. What if Nick Fairley shows up at 9? What then?

There you have it folks

So why do you think Carson Palmer isn't retired?

Memo to the skeptical: I want you to spell out a rational and factual argument that might somehow suggest that Carson Palmer isn't absolutely and completely done in the NFL. I bet you can't do it.

I will go on the record and tell you flat-out-cold: Carson Palmer is done-and-done as a player in the NFL. I mean absolutely and completely done. You will not see him throw the football again in the NFL. Palmer's statistical body of work is now complete. You won't ever seen the numbers budge by so much as a single digit.

I am really, really, really annoyed by speculations regarding where Carson Palmer is going to play football in 2011. What manner of horse-shit is this? You might as well speculate about how many Angels can dance on the head of pin, or how long Santa Clause will sit on top of the Sun before his ass will burn.

FYI: It's either going to be in his big SoCal back yard or on the local playgrounds at the park. It won't be on an NFL Football field.

Frankly, you guys are just being rock-heads who refuse to accept the situation in it's full truth. You chose to confuse a completely clear-cut picture with your own doubts that are unfounded.

Let me explain something to you and try to make it completely clear for you: Carson Palmer has been in sharp decline over the past several seasons. He has been showing diminishing returns ever since he had the so-called "Tommy John" surgery. He has a hardcore medical reason for his decline. This is definitely not the young Carson. There isn't much reason to believe he's going to get better. At this stage, you don't get a year better. You get a year older.

Those who believe the media hype have simply blinded themselves to this fact, choosing to blame the receiver corp or the coaching staff or the ownership... It just ain't so. It is Carson.

Carson's motivation is plain and clear: He doesn't want to continue playing in decline. It is embarrassing, and it is ruining his once sterling reputation. If he plays again, he will want to attempt a full comeback. This comeback is in great doubt and very sketchy.

One thing is for certain: It cannot happen in Sin-si-Nasty. That franchise is a perpetual basket case, and a bush-league organization. Forget about them. They are only motivated by the balance sheet. The comeback can only happen if Carson gets into the right situation. This would probably mean the Vikings.

Even if Mike Brown were to have a major born-again turn-around (bloody unlikely), and actually agree to trade Carson, Carson might not be willing to play for the Cardinals or the Redskins. He may not believe these are good situations where he can make a comeback, and have a good 2nd act in his career.

I want to leave you with the immortal words of Ocho Cinco on the ESPN Weekend special. Carson not only put his house in Cincinnati up for sale, it has already sold. The house not only sold, but he moved out a month ago. Where did he go? To some unspecified neighborhood in SoCal. Esteban believes Carson is absolutely and completely done in a Bengal uniform.

So should you.

In accordance with these facts, you need to make some adjustments to you television programming:

1. No more speculation on where Carson Palmer will play in 2011. The answer is already known. The answer is nowhere.
2. No more Mock drafts showing the Bengals selecting B.J. Green. It ain't going to happen folks. They are going to go QB.
3. No more speculative on how Mike Brown might smooth things out with Carson Palmer. The answer is already known. It ain't going to happen.

Bouy... starting to doubt these Synastry tea leaves

After having several weeks of fun comparing my chart to those of innumerable famous and not-so-famous women in this world, I decided to train Kepler 7.0 on some of the football personalities I seem to pay so much attention to.

The results seem pretty askew from reality, or at least the way I perceive it. You never know about people until you work and live with them for real, so who can say?

Still I find these reports questionable.

For the record here is the key to decoding these scores:

Above 150 is very high. This trait is VERY strong!

125 to 150 is above average. The trait is strong.

115 to 125 is slightly above average. The trait is slightly strong.

85 to 115 is average.

75 to 115 is slightly below average. The trait is slightly weak.

50 to 75 is weak.

50 or lower is VERY weak!

Billy Devaney and David Leon

Category Totals

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1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 229

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 85

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 117

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 70

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 96

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 142

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 135

Shocking... but then again it is not. Devaney has his sun in Pisces and his Mercury in Aquarius. That is very formative. I know these people well. My brother Ben, my cousin Ana Julia, my former business partner John Z, my favorite evangelical preacher Jimmy Swaggart, and couple other you wouldn't know. All of these people have their Sun in Pisces and Mercury in Aquarius.

Yep that's right, Devaney and Swaggart...

While somewhat low, the mutal kindness is higher than I would have predicted. The aggression score is lower than average, which is remarkable.

For the record, Pisces is in my 7th house. This means my business partners and my future wife are all supposed to come from the Pisces clan. Certainly, several of my realtives do. Virgo/Mercury is one of only two signs that can run with Aquarius/Mecury.

Steve Spagnuolo and David Leon

Category Totals

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1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 229

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 137

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 118

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 43

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 78

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 80

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 88

Wow... pretty good scores there. No wonder I like the guy. Incidentally, Spags is a major league Sagittarius. It may not be friendly, but it isn't violent either.

David Leon and Dick Vermeil

Category Totals

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1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 29

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 131

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 3

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 115

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 377

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 176

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 132

Damn... That breaks my heart and wounds my soul to the core. Of all the guys I have held in high esteem over my life as a football fan, Dick Vermeil is pretty damn close to #1 on my list. It kills me to think that we have no mutual understanding and aggression score of 377. The mutual success score is reasonably strong. Understand that this could flip the aggression score and make it a success score. If so, that score is outstanding.

The temperment is totally different though. He is a very emotionally expressive dude. I am not. I have a poker face in pressure situations that just won't quit. Dick is not like that.

I admire the guy so much I doubt we would have that level of violence, but you never know until you work together under pressure.

David Leon and Stan Kroenke

Category Totals

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1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 0

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 32

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 131

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 67

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 316

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 140

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 157

Wow... well, he is a billionaire. They say these fellows have a totally different mindset all together. Working with them and thinking with them is ostensibly like working hand-in-hand with aliens from another world. The aggression score is once again disturbing.

They say fights happens when strong willed people with strongly held ideas get together...

Dick Vermeil and Stan Kroenke

Category Totals

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1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 143

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 187

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 100

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 68

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 264

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 146

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 151

Look at 'dem apples. They have pretty damn good scores until you get to kindness and aggression. Whilst not as bad as my scores, those don't look too... pleasant. Nevertheless, you can see why there was ground there for a successful business partnership.

Perhaps it is just the very nature of the beast. Football is so damn aggressive, violent, and competitive that you just can't have an afternoon tea party environment, even in the best situation. The pressure is horrendous.

Dick Vermeil and Sam Bradford

Category Totals

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1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 171

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 182

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 161

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 44

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 196

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 180

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 50

Interesting... the two Scorpions have very good scores together until we get to kindness and aggression. The mutual success score is so good that it suggests that the aggression score will flip and become success. If I was Kroenke, I would take note. But then Kroenke is not interested in any of these things.

Just for shits and giggles I decided to throw in a few NFL Network personalities to see how this works out.

Rich Eisen and Jamie Dukes

Category Totals

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1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 29

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 167

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 98

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 266

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 96

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 176

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 109

The similarity of interests and temperment score should send up red flags. Perhaps their temperments are different, but I suspect they have many common interests. They do seem successful and pleasant together. There is some adventure and surprises in their business. There may be some aggression and competition, but it is below average. I would agree with that.

Rich Eisen and David Leon

Category Totals

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 171

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 12

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 80

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 152

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 0

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 61

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 107

Wow... very similar interests and temperment. No success and no aggression. Interesting...

Jamie Dukes and David Leon

Category Totals

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 0

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 117

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 104

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 121

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 101

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 126

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 110

Wow... now that aught to throw the whole scheme in doubt. How in the world can I have a shared interest score of 0 with Jamie Dukes? I guarentee you that isn't correct. The rest of the scores are moderate average scores, but the top score must be wrong. I have always felt a great kinship with Jamie Dukes. I think we think similary. Not the same, but similarly. Since we are both interested in football and bariatric surgery, the score must be higher than zero. I guarentee you we have some shared interests. That just has to be wrong.

Now he was a center and I was a nose tackle...

What the fuck did I tell you?

So, Sam Bradford made his debut with the Rams tonight. The Vikings smacked the Rams 28-7. Bradford was sacked 4 times. He had most of the first string offensive line in front of him, most of the time. The Vikings did not put all their 1st string defenders against him, at least not on all plays.

What do you take from these events? How about this line from Football News Now: The real story, however, is the lack of protection the Rams' offensive line provided their new leader. There you have it ladies and germs: The real story line is the lack of protection the Rams' offensive line provided Sam Bradford.

What did I tell you? What did I say? What have I warned of a thousand and one times? What did my last post on BleacherReport.com say?

What I am saying to you now I say in anger, and not with gloating: YOU'D BETTER FIX THAT OFFENSIVE LINE! I MEAN NOW! I don't give a fuck what you have to do. Trade players. Mortgage the future. Give up picks. Pay money under the table. Shtoomp female owners if that is what it takes. Get some offensive linemen in ASFAP.

Folks, it is worse than I thought it would be. I expected them to be pretty loose and sloppy. Disorganization was what I expected. I saw some of that, but that isn't the real story here. I did not expect them to look this... bad. They look plain overwhelmed at the point of attack by much superior athletes. The Viking D-Line did not win the battle at the line of scrimmage. The Vikings utterly annihilated the Rams at the line of scrimmage. That is damn scary.

Now, whilst I do not buy into the Viking theory, you just read my praise for the Viking D-line recently. Yes they are talented. No they are not that talented. This is only the 1st preason game. They should not be this hot at this point. The Ram line should not surrender 4 sacks all game long, much less in less 2 quarters of play.

What I saw set off a lot of major alarm bells. Even VanRam--who is a major apologist for the Rams' offensive line--is now showing real signs of worry. You can attempt to downplay it all you want, but you are wrong. Jason Smith looked more like the human sieve than the #2 overall pick from 2009. Jamie Dukes drew particular attention to Smith's case. The guards looked pretty bad also.

You should have read the expression on Dukes' face. It was somewhere between disdain and horror, and that came from a former center. He also warned of the lack of talent elsewhere on the field, something I am very cognizant of.

I am surprised the kid completed 6 of 13 passes for 57 yards. Considering the wretched protection he got, that was damn impressive. As Mike Florio said, the only good news for the Rams is that no joints on Bradford's body exploded like popcorn.

Billy, I want you to take a deep breath and write on the dry erase board 1,000 times: "David is never, ever wrong about the Rams. I need to get some offensive linemen right now."

Nah, skip it and just get the fucking linemen! I don't need to be proven right anymore. Just fix it!

There's nothing wrong with the Chargers

"There's nothing wrong with the Chargers", said Jamie Dukes recently. "They lost that playoff game because Nate Kaeding missed a bunch of field goals."

"And Nate Kaeding is an All-Pro kicker, so he's not going to do that again", added Tom Waddle.

Oh Bouy... I don't like slagging Jamie Dukes. He's one of my favorite guys, but when he is off-course, he's really way off.

There are a couple of legendary literary figures that came to mind when I heard these two guys discuss the Chargers.

One is Pollyanna, who likes to play "The Glad Game", a cheery and optimistic game orphans play. It consists of finding something to be happy and grateful for in every situation no matter how bleak.

The other is the great Dr. Pangloss found Voltaire's Candide. Pangloss likes to quote Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz "all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds." Leibniz said that when he wasn't busy inventing infinitesimal Calculus and binary mathematics (the basis of all computers today). Dr.Pangloss has some rose colored glasses, which means everything's coming up roses. I can hear Ethel Merman belting it out now.

So here is Dr. Pangloss (Jamie Dukes) and Pollyanna (Waddle) tell us that there is nothing wrong with the Chargers.

Now hear this: Fuck that shit! There is plenty wrong. Let us count the ways.

1. Shawne Merriman never really recovered from his knee surgery, and the lack of steroids in his game is really showing. When it comes to steroids you either have it, or you've had it.
2. You have 6 soon-to-be haircut restricted free agents who are going to pissed off and disgruntled with the unhappy contracts they've been forced into.
3. L.T. just got released.
4. Even with Ryan Matthews, a very good prospect, I am not sure that Chargers will have a running game.
5. I am fairly certain that Charger O-Line is not what it used to be. I don't know that they can run-block the way they used to, even if Norv will commit to the running game, which I doubt he will
6. The Chargers just cut their starting Nose Tackle Jaamal Williams. I once believed that they had a replacement. Now I strongly doubt that.
7. They just threw Antonio Cromartie out the door for siring 7 bastard children and other disasters. That would be wonderful, except for the fact that I don't think they have a replacement on hand. No, Nathan Vasher doesn't get it done.
8. And then we still have Norv... Jamie may say that Norv is a great coach, but it is only true at the OC level. This guy has never been a solid head coach.

There's nothing wrong with the Chargers...? There's nothing wrong with the Chargers?!?!? What the fuck do you mean that there is nothing with the Chargers?!?!?!?

Folks, I still have every reason to bet the Chargers will win the AFC West in 2010. The division is otherwise vacant. They will win by default. They will probably scratch together a 10-6 record. They will also be one-and-done, a quick-out, in the playoffs.

Last year, a better Charger team could not overcome an inferior Raven team, and they barely beat the Bengals 27-24. This year an inferior Charger team may be up against a superior Bengal team in the first round. I don't like 'dem odds. If by some miracle they win that game, they should get smacked up like little bitches by the Ravens.

The Chargers will not sniff the Super Bowl in Dallas. They were overdue two years ago. They are not overdue now. The window has now closed.

Charlie Weis is a wahhh...?

As readers of this blog know, Jamie Dukes is one of my favorite guys on the NFL Network. I used to say that if there were QB efficiency rating for analysts, Dukes would be over 100 for sure. Suddenly, Dukes is making me doubt him somethin' fierce.

Today, I went home for lunch. I wanted to see the start of the NFL combine. I caught the early segment about the QBs. When the name of Clausen came up, Dukes said something truly shocking. He said "Charlie Weis is (I believe) a revered figure and offensive genius based on what he did at New England."

Wahhhhh... whaaaa... who... The hell you say wha...? I was stunned out of my fucking skull. A moment later they wandered on to the subject of historical revisionism. Let me tell you a little something about historical revisionism.

Charlie Weis was the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots between 2000 and 2004. He was there for all three of their championships. He is responsible for installing and extremely banal offensive scheme called the Erhardt-Perkins system. This is a smash-mouth run-first, run to setup the pass scheme. The slogan is run to win, pass to score. It is very Lombardi-esque. There is nothing innovative about this scheme. The milquetoast fellows who invented it were as basic as it gets. When you have to throw, you put in 3 or 4 receivers and spread a bit. Once again, there is nothing innovative about this.

Erhardt-Perkins is also a dogmatic system. You demand players who fit the scheme, and you demand that they conform. You do not tailor the system to maximally exploit the unique skills of the players involved.

This is the most un-genius, borring, drab, lifeless, sparkless system the world has ever seen. Although it is called Erhardt-Perkins, it has been around since Lombardi. Don Schula used it in the early going as coach of the Dolphins. The Steelers used. The Giants used it. They all had varying degrees of success with it.

The Patriot offense of the early 2000s was anemic. They did enough to win, and that is all. They were no more powerful than the Giants of the mid-late 1980s, and maybe less so. Like most dynasties, they were a defensive dynasty. Their powerful defense kept them in all games, and Brady would poach a few tough matches in the final moments.

Weis left the patriots after 2004 to coach Notre Dame, where he failed terribly and was fired. The Patriots did not officially name an Offensive Coordinator immediately, but the esquinkly geek, Josh McDaniels, called the plays. Later, McDaniels was anointed the official offensive coordinator. The Patriot offense did not detonate until 2007, when the acquired Randy Moss and went to a fully-functional Spread offense. They scored 67 offensive touchdowns that year, and 50 of those came off the arm of Tom Brady. This was done with an offense that looked nothing like Erhardt-Perkins.

So there you have it folks. That is the real history of Charlie Weis. Weis never innovated a thing in his life. He ran the most boring and conservative offense ever devised by man. He did just enough to win and nothing more. The Patriots did not do anything special offensively until Weis left the building. They became powerful in 2007, 2+ years after Weis began floundering at Notre Dame, and Josh McDaniels was the OC at that time.

Jamie, can you find anything in this resume that would make Weis a revered offensive genius in NFL circles? I see nothing but historical revisionism in that statement.

He ain't shit in my book. His FICO credit score is 620. That is below average.

So Jamie Dukes is trying to put Mike Vick with the Rams again?

For (at least) the second time in recent history, Jamie Dukes is campaigning for the Rams to give Mike Vick a hard look. Vick will be an unrestricted free agent come this off season, and he is not at all happy as a backup. He wants to be a starter.

The QB market was a sellers market just 1 year ago. Now the market is getting harder. As has been often stated this season, 2009 has been a winfall for QBs. Some say that we are living at the apex of QB efficiency. One team that clearly has shit for quarterbacks is my Ram team. We have two Chinadolls who cannot stay healthy and show great signs of phobia on the field.

There is little doubt that few teams have a worse QB situation than my Rams. Buffalo might be one of them. Carolina might be one of them. If I were Vick, I would campaign for the Carolina job. You get a better team, nice weather, and it ain't far from Virgina Tech. I am not sure why Dukes is so insistant that Vick should go to the Rams. Perhaps it is because our offensive line is (once again) dirt squat poor, and Vick's scrambling ways can be justified fully under the circumstances.

I would be willing to look at Vick as a short-term solution. I would not be willing to commit the indefinet future to Vick. I am still greatly in favor of acquiring a strong young quarterback (or two) in the Draft (e.g. Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, and Jevan Snead) and developing these young men for 2012; the year the Rams return to Los Angeles.

Jesus Christ! Now the Rams have Swine Flu!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/football/nfl/wires/12/17/2020.ap.fbn.rams.swine.flu.1st.ld.writethru.0230/

Damn... What else can go wrong this season??? I swear, in 30 years of watching the Rams, this is the worst season I have ever seen! Injuries galore, horrible QB play, just one WR who is a true #2, a psycho guard, and now the Swine Flu shuts down our practices for the Houston game! I am becoming certain that we will have the #1 pick this year. I have little reason to doubt that we will finish this year with just 1 victory. Tampa will probably win again before we do. This is truly dreadful.

If my Rams defeat Houston, Coach Kubiac will be fired that evening. He won't see the morning in as head coach of the Texans.

Have a look at our injured reserve list:

1. Free Safety #21 Oshiomogho Atogwe
2. Left Guard #63 Jacob Bell
3. Wide Receiver #14 Keenan Burton,
4. Defensive Tackle #90 Adam Carriker
5. Wide Receiver #19 Laurent Robinson (who used to wear #11)
6. Quarter Back #10 Marc Bulger (he is not actually on the IR but should be)

That is 6 key starters with a 7th (Incognito) just released this week. That is just about 32% of the starting lineup out with injuries as we face the Texans. Some of the best players on the team on that list; particularly Atogwe and Carriker.

And now the dreaded H1N1 Swine Flu! Horrible!

One thing we should be aware of and take into consideration is the conspiracy theory known as 'pack it in for the season'. There are people close to the NFL who will tell you that it is wise to pack it in for the season if you are suffering a massively botched loosing campaign as we are.

Under this policy, you place as many starters on the IR as you can. You release trouble makers. You bring in scrubs who won't be with the team next year. You start the worst and cheapest team you can. You salary cap is positively impacted by these moves. You don't waste good men wrecking your draft position in meaningless games. You effectively throw the rest of the season, guarantying your draft position, and enhancing your free-agency money pool.

If you need a franchise QB, you usually can't draft too high. Your season ticket holders may never forgive you for packing it in, and calling it quits, but if you are planning to move the team anyway...

As a quick aside, I personally don't believe we need a #1 pick to acquire a franchise QB in this 2010 draft, but it is nice to be certain you can get what you need. I think the best prospects are going to be found in the 2nd round or later. If Jevan Snead does not declare for the draft, I would not use my #1 for a QB if I am Devany. I might well take Ndamukong Suh.

There is another conspiracy theory out there which says the Rams are intentionally bad this season because:

1. The Rams want to fall out of the top 25% of NFL stadium revenues so they can break the lease on the Edward Jones Dome.
2. Georgia's kids have even less money that she did.
3. Georgia's kids have more financial problems than she did.
4. Devany knew he needed a total rebuild from scratch

The good Doctor on the NFL Network recently told us to blow up the ship. I think he didn't keep up with events during the off-season of 2009. We blew up the ship at that time. The explosion occurred sometime between March and April of 2009. What you are looking at is the aftermath of that explosion. This is the wreckage of the Titanic sitting on the bottom of the Atlantic.

We are going to try to raise the Titanic in 2010.

One final word: If the Rams really have confirmed cases of H1N1 on the team, why are we taking the field against the Texans? We could spread the virus to the entire NFL! We should just yield/concede the victory to Houston and not take the field. This is a situation where the health of the league is at stake as we move rapidly towards the playoffs. Certainly, we Rams have nothing to gain by taking the field against Houston, especially if we have already packed it in for the season.

So did I hear that right? Did everybody pick my Rams to win this weekend?

I sit hear a bit dumbfounded at the moment. Jamie Dukes, who has a perfect record in upset specials this week, picked my Rams over Detroit as his upset special. Some may complain that this is cheating, as a Ram victory over Detroit may not actually constitute an upset victory. Why? Because Brian, Sterling and Joe all picked the Rams to defeat Detroit also. They did this right at the top of the show on this weeks NFC Matchup.

One of the reasons for their pick may actually be invalid. Joe noticed that the Rams like to throw to the outer flats. Detroit seems to have particular difficulty in covering this spot. Donnie Avery happens to run several different routs to this point, and he runs them extremely well. Joe and Sterling focused on how well Bulger throws to these two spots on the field.

As of this would be very well and good, except it would appear that Marc just might have had his last strike last week against the Colts. That failed 4th down conversion combined with with an utterly stupid pick-6 turned a modest loss into the worst blow-out of the day. Both plays were courtesy of Marc Bulger.

The current scuttlebutt says the following things:

1. Don't be surprised when you see Kyle Boller start on Sunday.
2. Don't be surprised when the Rams look around for a quality veteran free agent quarterback early in 2010. I haven't the slightest clue who that would or could be. There is no such critter scheduled to enter the market this off season. I only hope we don't bring in Jeff Garcia. Likewise, I hope it is not Chad Pennington. God forbid that Brett Favre should retire and un-retire again with the Rams. It would be best if simply stick with Kyle Boller. Regrettably, other teams may be smacking their chops in anticipation of acquiring Bulger, believing that they can protect him better than we can.
3. Don't be surprised at all when the Rams spend the #1 or #2 pick overall on a Quarterback. The presumptive favorite is Texas Longhorn QB Colt McCoy, although I would greatly prefer it to be Tim Tebow.

Ergo sum, Bulger will probably not be making throws to the outer flats this weekend. Hopefully, Boller will be making those throws to the outer flats where Donnie Avery will be waiting for the rock. Hopefully, we will prevail. It should be noted that Detroit is working a young and star studded offense right now. They have some really beautiful weapons in their offensive arsenal. The key issue is their defensive weakness, and in particular, the weakness of their secondary.

So if I were to write Bulger's epitaph with the Rams right now, how would I phrase it? I would say that Bulger was a fugacious epiphenomena of Mike Martz. Martz simplified the game enough for Bulger to be successful. He told him things like "I want you to count to five and throw to this spot here." Martz made the rest of the play work. The moment Bulger was called upon to read progressions of adaptive routes in a sophisticated ball control passing attack (one which may not actually work anymore) it all went to hell in a hand basket for him. Although the soft spoken Bulger comes off as a fairly intelligent chap, it is clear that he is not a thinking man's QB. This guy does not have the mind of Joe Montana, or even Jeff Garcia.

We also need to consider the proposition that the 49er West Coast offense doesn't actually work anymore. As Coach Brian Bilick says, everybody runs a little West Coast, and nobody runs it as Bill Walsh did. The reason is clear: Quick ball-control passes are still helpful in acquiring a few first downs, but you can't do that all game long. The counter measure is just too easy.

As I have said several times before, a certain dude by the name Belichick figured out how to stop this offense in 1980's when he was the defensive coordinator of the New York Giants. He invented a thing called the 40 yard box. The notions is simple. You defend 40 yards from the line of scrimmage and no more. The first 20 yards are called the Red Zone. The second are called the Yellow Zone. You defend the Red Zone with hard man-on press coverage. You defend the yellow zone with a soft-zone coverage, notorious for knocking teeth out of mouths, and creating major concussions. If a receiver goes outside the 40 box, you let him go. You dare them to wait for the long pass, because you have a blitz or two or three headed for the QB on every play. If the QB holds the ball, you will get a Leonard Marshall vs. Joe Montana situation soon.

I should remind you that Marshall's hit on Montana effectively terminated Joe's career with the 49ers. It was more or less Steve Young's show after that play.

There is no way to solve the Belichick 40 yard Box unless you have all three of following elements:

1. An extremely mobile QB who can run for good yardage, just like Steve Young, Randell Cunningham or maybe Michael Vick.
2. An all-pro offensive line that can really defend the QB.
3. A deep-strike speed burner who can get out of the box in big hurry. Torry Holt was precisely this sort of man, which makes his release even more inexplicable this season. Marshall Faulk was also this sort of player.

Absent these features, I see no reason to believe Coach Walsh's masterpiece system will work in the modern league against a fully-modern 3-4 defense. Furthermore, we can say that its success is entirely dependant upon the bomb. If you can't nail a few good bombs per game, you cannot force the defense out of the Belichick Box. This is why Dan Fouts says that the first precept of the Don Coryal offense is the Bomb. The bomb is that which makes everything else possible.

Should we pick a QB this season, and I have every reason to believe we will, we need to keep in mind Coach Bill Parcell's super formula for selecting a Quarterback. The guy had almost matchless success in finding these guys through all of his many travels. Let's pay close attention to the Big Tuna. When selecting a QB, the Tuna demands all of the following criteria be fulfilled:

1. The candidate must have graduated from college
2. The candidate must have been a 3 year starter in college
3. The candidate must have made a minimum of 3o starts as the first string QB of his college team.
4. The candidate must have won a minimum of 23 games as the starter in college
5. Candidates who did some graduate course work after receiving a Bachelor's and before entering the draft will be preferred.
6. The candidate cannot have had any run-ins with the Police blotter.
7. The candidate must come highly recommended by his college coach.
8. Character issues are paramount, and the candidate must impress us as a leader figure.

Fortunately, I do believe that both Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow will be able to fulfill these criteria. Much depends upon whether these guys graduate on-schedule academically. I believe they are on course to do so. We need to make sure that this is true.

Mike Vick to the Rams? Part 2

So guess what? Jamie Dukes of the NFL Network just reignited the rumors about Michael Vick going to the Rams. In a lengthy discussion with Solomon Wilcots about Michael Vick's future, Dukes stated that he believes Vick makes sense for the Rams because:

1. The Rams don't have a backup
2. The Rams have a questionable situation with Marc Bulger.
3. Vick is weapon who can help... presumably a lot
4. Rams general manager Billy Devaney is the guy who drafted Vick at the Falcons

I hate to sound snarky, but how much to you think Devaney regretted making that selection when Dogfight-Gate went down in Atlanta some two years ago? I really don't intend that to be a snarky zinger. I mean this as a serious question. There is no reason to suppose that Devaney is still in love with Vick, if he ever was. I was always under the impression that Vick was chosen by Coach Dan Reeves. In his many interviews with NFL Films, Reeves has always made it sound that way. Further, when the Titanic hit the iceberg in Atlanta, you have to suppose Devaney was second guessing himself (kicking himself in the ass) for drafting Vick.

No slight is intended to Dukes. Do you know that Jamie Dukes is my favorite analyst in the NFL network? I think Dukes almost always has the most accurate take on just about every subject. If he were a QB, he'd have a completion rate of about 93%. Of course, I like Solomon Wilcots also. He's a hell of an analyst. He is an L.A. kid who grew up a fan of the Rams, so we have something in common there.

Because Dukes said it, I actually sat up on my couch suddenly listened like hell. This is not the sort of guy who would drop a bullshit rumor. Wilcots rejected the argument claiming that Vick will not be welcomed by any team where he might create controversy. Only teams with a stable QB situation will welcome Vick to the club. This would eliminate St. Louis, as Bulger is questionable.

Well, after considering this for an hour now, let me tell you what I think:

1. Spagnuolo is entirely focused on building team character.
2. Team character, perseverance, integrity, and courage has been a persistent problem for the Rams, with a brief respite during the glory of the team Dick Vermeil built.
3. Vick may be a reformed man. He may have a humble and contrite spirit. He may be ready to go bigger than ever because of this attitude adjustment. Still, bringing him in would send precisely the wrong message to the team. It would say that almost anything will be tolerated if you can help us on the field.
4. This is how you develop bad character problems. This kind of message causes a team to spiral out of control
5. I think that the team with the worst QB situation in the NFL is the most likely team to sign Vick.
6. I think Vick's greatest incentive is to sign with the team having the worst QB problems in the NFL. This is how you become a starter again quickly. This is how you get a nice sized contract. I am not talking about a giant contract either, but one large enough to get out of bankruptcy.
7. If you think the Rams have the worst QB situation in NFL, you're on crack. We're not even close to the bottom.
8. Denver, Buffalo, Oakland, Minnesota, Tampa, and San Francisco are all far worse off than the St. Louis Rams.
9. I remind you that Bulger made it to two Pro Bowls under Mike Martz, and was considered the franchise savior after... we let Warner go. Don't make me cry. Bulger also lit the Pro Bowl with 5 TDs and was elected the MVP by the winning side. Of course, nobody cares about this.
10. I have said repeatedly that Bulger has been killed by our formerly dreadful line. I can't count the times he has been hit in the face on a blitz up the middle on a quick 3 step drop. Why do you think the first priority was to grab an expensive free-agent center like Jason Brown? Because we had to stop the blitz up the middle. Why do you think we drafted Jason Smith with the #2 pick in the entire draft? Because we had to lock down either the right or left tackle.
11. Hopefully, our line will be substantially better this year, and Bulger will return to form.
12. If not, we will select Tim Tebow next year. We'll get a franchise QB and great character also.

What about Farve in Minnesota? I wish Brett well, however, if he comes back this time, his Ironman streak is toast. As I said, the Vikings have a far worse situation than the Rams. The Vikings would be better served if they got Vick.

Now, what if the Rams acquired Michael Vick? What happens then? Well, there would be a controversy. Some fans would be irate. Some would want to start him immediately. It would divide the locker room. Bulger would probably fail in this situation. For Vick, this could potentially be an ideal situation. He can't wear number 7, but he would have a powerful running back behind him. He would have the West Coast Offensive he once talked about wanting to run. He would have a revamped offensive line that would be strong enough to give the scrambler sufficient protection to avoid a sack.

Setting aside the vicious locker room politics this would create, the Rams would also have a guy who could potentially run the West Coast well. Vick always believed that he could be the second coming of Steve Young. He's left handed. He has an arm just as strong as Young. He can run even better than Young could. That is saying a hell of a lot, but it is true.

To be quite frank with you, Bill Walsh's offense doesn't work so well anymore. This is why nobody plays it in the pure form these days. Today, no NFL defense concedes the short pass. The quick slant, the shallow cross, and the dump off are all contested plays these days. To make the West Coast work, you must throw the ball deep and get the big play. Defenses cannot be allowed to guard a 40 yard box against you. To break the 40 yard box defense, you must throw it deeper than 40 yards. The deep pass is now a necessary addition to the West Coast. Bulger can do this. So can Michael Vick.

However, to make the 49er offense really, really, really dynamic, you have to have a QB who can run. The 49er offense was never more powerful, never to be feared more, never more dynamic than under Steve Young. If you covered his short guys with a 40 yard box, he went deep. If you covered his short and his deep guys, he simply took off and ran with the balll... 65 yards to the end zone.

There is a serious school of thought out there that thinks only Vick has a prayer of doing what Young did. Vick is the only mobile south-paw who can throw. Like Young, he stood accused of being a throwing tailback. Like Young, he might breath some new life in an aging system that doesn't work so well anymore without dynamic talent.

I must admit, that vision of the 1992 San Francisco offense up and running in St. Louis are passing through my head. However, I think it will be another mobile Southpaw named Tebow who will do this eventually.

So what do I ultimately think? I think the Rams are not going to do it. If they do do this, they better cut or trade Bulger. That won't happen because Bulger has a giant contract. It would be a massive salary cap hit to cut him, and no team will take that contract. It is cheaper to keep him, and not on the bench. The Rams have cash flow problems that aren't helped any by recession, inheritance taxes, and rumors that they are going to move back to Los Angeles. The money factor makes any move at QB extremely unlikely this year.

This is why Spagnuolo already met with Bulger and assured him that he is the starting QB in St. Louis in 2009. He has no reason to fear for his job.