Deep-offseason Incendiaries

Intro

It’s against my policy to comment on the NFL during a deep-offseason lockout. Still, the NFL Network managed to come up with an incendiary last night that will get me to break policy. If I didn’t know better, I would swear that the writers at the NFL Network crafted a flaming arrow specifically designed to flush me out.

Which Heisman winning QB will have the most wins in 2011?

So the question was put to us: Which Heisman winning QB will have the most wins in 2011?

• Tim Tebow
• Sam Bradford
• Carson Palmer

Early on, Sam Bradford was leading at 55% of the vote. By the end of the show, Tim Tebow had run away with it, leading by 88%. Carson Palmer had just 1% of the vote. This is all beautifully designed to trigger all kinds of controversy, especially with a guy like me.

Unfucking the question

First of all we to do quite a bit of straightening out before we can approach this question:

1. Quarterbacks don’t win games. Teams do.
2. Football isn’t fucking baseball. This is a team sport involving actual athletes.
3. Carson Palmer has retired. How can you put him on the list?
4. The question should be rephrased for accuracy: Who will win more games, the Rams or the Broncos? This is the correct way to state the question

4. The question should be rephrased for accuracy: Who will win more games, the Rams or the Broncos? This is the correct way to state the question

88% say the Broncos will win more games than the Rams

If so, this will be a solid step forward for the Broncos, and a significant step back for the Rams. The vote, in itself, is a hell of a referendum on Billy Devaney’s pathetic excuse for a draft. Believe me, if I happen to see that guy, I’m going to break his nose… and his legs.

You might argue that this vote is due to the greater popularity of the Broncos vs. the Rams with general public. You could argue that this vote is due to the greater popularity of Tim Tebow over Sam Bradford with the general public. You might argue that this vote came from impartial observers who simply feel that the Broncos have an easy schedule and the Rams have a tough schedule.

No matter how you slice it, Devaney did not develop much confidence in the general public with his most recent crappy draft. The public would not feel emboldened to make such a comment if we had had a good draft.

Stuck on the fence

Ordinarily, this is the sort of question I would not comment on. It’s sorta like asking Archie who is better: Peyton or Eli. As you all know, I have declared that Tim Tebow is the son I never had. I am still sore that my Rams passed on him. As you know, all Ram-fans have pretty well adopted Sam Bradford. This includes me.

The Rams are my 31-32 year obsession. The Broncos have long been a favorite of mine, but especially now that they have Tim Tebow. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t chose to comment on such a question.

Do I think it is possible for the Broncos to win more games than the Rams? Sure it’s possible. For the lack of one Mike Pouncey, Sam Bradford could get injured and miss most of the year. I would hate to see the outcome of that season. John Fox could do a stellar job of re-assembling that Bronco defense, and you might see them win 7 or 9 games this season.

Do I think any of these things are likely? Not likely, but not precisely remote possibilities either. The 2011 season could unfold this way.

So why do you think Carson Palmer isn't retired?

Memo to the skeptical: I want you to spell out a rational and factual argument that might somehow suggest that Carson Palmer isn't absolutely and completely done in the NFL. I bet you can't do it.

I will go on the record and tell you flat-out-cold: Carson Palmer is done-and-done as a player in the NFL. I mean absolutely and completely done. You will not see him throw the football again in the NFL. Palmer's statistical body of work is now complete. You won't ever seen the numbers budge by so much as a single digit.

I am really, really, really annoyed by speculations regarding where Carson Palmer is going to play football in 2011. What manner of horse-shit is this? You might as well speculate about how many Angels can dance on the head of pin, or how long Santa Clause will sit on top of the Sun before his ass will burn.

FYI: It's either going to be in his big SoCal back yard or on the local playgrounds at the park. It won't be on an NFL Football field.

Frankly, you guys are just being rock-heads who refuse to accept the situation in it's full truth. You chose to confuse a completely clear-cut picture with your own doubts that are unfounded.

Let me explain something to you and try to make it completely clear for you: Carson Palmer has been in sharp decline over the past several seasons. He has been showing diminishing returns ever since he had the so-called "Tommy John" surgery. He has a hardcore medical reason for his decline. This is definitely not the young Carson. There isn't much reason to believe he's going to get better. At this stage, you don't get a year better. You get a year older.

Those who believe the media hype have simply blinded themselves to this fact, choosing to blame the receiver corp or the coaching staff or the ownership... It just ain't so. It is Carson.

Carson's motivation is plain and clear: He doesn't want to continue playing in decline. It is embarrassing, and it is ruining his once sterling reputation. If he plays again, he will want to attempt a full comeback. This comeback is in great doubt and very sketchy.

One thing is for certain: It cannot happen in Sin-si-Nasty. That franchise is a perpetual basket case, and a bush-league organization. Forget about them. They are only motivated by the balance sheet. The comeback can only happen if Carson gets into the right situation. This would probably mean the Vikings.

Even if Mike Brown were to have a major born-again turn-around (bloody unlikely), and actually agree to trade Carson, Carson might not be willing to play for the Cardinals or the Redskins. He may not believe these are good situations where he can make a comeback, and have a good 2nd act in his career.

I want to leave you with the immortal words of Ocho Cinco on the ESPN Weekend special. Carson not only put his house in Cincinnati up for sale, it has already sold. The house not only sold, but he moved out a month ago. Where did he go? To some unspecified neighborhood in SoCal. Esteban believes Carson is absolutely and completely done in a Bengal uniform.

So should you.

In accordance with these facts, you need to make some adjustments to you television programming:

1. No more speculation on where Carson Palmer will play in 2011. The answer is already known. The answer is nowhere.
2. No more Mock drafts showing the Bengals selecting B.J. Green. It ain't going to happen folks. They are going to go QB.
3. No more speculative on how Mike Brown might smooth things out with Carson Palmer. The answer is already known. It ain't going to happen.

Farewell, Carson Palmer

So I am wearing my Carson Palmer #9 Bengals Jersey today in honor of Carson Palmer's official retirement. If he hasn't already filed retirement papers with NFL HQ, it's coming soon, despite the looming lockout.

All sources on the NFL Network indicate that Carson is not bluffing. He has between $75-80 million in the bank, he does not have to pay any of those dollars back if he retires, and they are pretty sure he will never play in a Bengals uniform again. Those same sources indicate that the owner/president Mike Brown is not bluffing either. He will not deal Carson because it would set a bad precedent for the future. Brown says he wishes Carson well in his retirement, and plans to move on.

Just how far along does Mike Brown plan to move? The NFL Network reports that the Bengals are making plans to draft a QB in the 2011 draft. This doesn't necessarily mean they will use the #4 pick on QB, but I would bet you money they will in the end. Scratch Cincinnati off your list of landing spots for A.J. Green and Julio Jones. I doubt they are taking a WR with the #4 overall pick. They're going to take a QB; Blaine Gabbert I reckon.

Consider the Bengals draft in 2011. Prior to the crystallization of Carson Palmer's position, experts believed that the Bengals were the first team on the big-board extremely likely to (a) stand pat, and (b) select an offensive player, (c) select A.J. Green. This was the spot where A.J. Green was projected to go. Not now, baby.

You could argue that it was never the case in the first place. Why?

The Bengals have a poor passing game. Of this there can be no doubt. This has been the case for several years now. However, the Bengals have had a pretty good receiver corp, plus or minus 2009. They have a pretty good receiver corp as they enter the 2011 season. They have some Divas, but these are Divas with hands. If this be the case, why then do they have a poor passing game?

Most of us who watch football understand that Carson Palmer has been way off-target and in decline over these past several years. Palmer's accuracy, velocity, reads, and decision making have been questionable. The onus is on Carson Palmer, not the receivers. This makes Palmer's current off-season trade demand even more bizarre. Who wants him? I don't. I'm not trading for him.

Even in a magic world where there is no labor-strife with Carson Palmer, selecting A.J. Green rather than Blaine Gabbert would be a serious strategic blunder for the Bengals. Mike Brown needs to be thinking about his next-gen QB, not another receiver.

Over and against my QB theory is the question of whether Bengals can be expected to make a rational choice in the draft? Can they? I don't know. Sometimes Mike Brown makes very shrewd moves. Sometimes he doesn't. All signs do indicate that Mike Brown is preparing to select a QB in this draft.

The Bengals could select B.J. Green, or they might select Julio Jones. Both receivers are likely to be on the board when their number comes up. Neither pick is advisable. They should select Blaine Gabbert. Logically, this is the spot where Gabbert should go.