2011 (2012) NFL Season, Week 17 predictions

So, I am going to squeeze in my last regular season predictions of the year 30 minutes before game-time.  It just so happens that the final week of the 2011 season falls over on the 2012 side of the boundary.  In years past, we'd already be deep in the playoffs by this point.

I don't have much time to analyze these choices, so I won't.  Suffice it to say that there are only four games I am interested in this time around.

1. Ravens v. Bengals is a good one with playoff implications.  This is a tough choice.  I like both teams.  I just think the veteran and slightly more talented Ravens will take this game.  They elevate for big games.
2. Lions v. Packers is very interesting now that the Packers have deactivated everybody.  The Lions want this game.  
3. Colts v. Jags is very, very import for purposes of determining the NFL Draft order in 2012.  The Colt management wants to lose this game.  Rumor has it that the players are not on board with that decision.  Rumor has it that the players chanting "Win one for Peyton!"  If they lose, Peyton's career in Indiana may be over.  If they win, the situation gets mighty damn complicated.  Effectively, the players can sabotage management's plans to replace Peyton by wining today.
4. Cowboys @ Giants is a one-game play-in bracket, just like those found in the NCAA basketball tournament.  Win and your in.  Loose and you are on the hot-seat.  Winner take all, baby.  Eli is more clutch than Romo, so I am picking the Giants.  This despite the fact that the Giants are a lousy home-team.

I just can't seem to get excited about my Rams this year.

Call me a pessimist, but I just can't get excited about my Rams this year. You may say that I am busy with a lot of other subjects in my life right now, and you would be partially right, but don't fool yourself: If my boys had had a tremendous off-season, filled crucial holes with exciting players, and made most of the right moves, I would be off the hook with excitement about it.

The NFC West is an absolute mess this season with the last division champ, the Seahawks, on the short-short list of who may win the Andrew Luck bowl in 2011. The Cardinals have gotten a bit better, but don't fool yourself: They still haven't replaced Kurt Warner. The 49ers are on the short-short list of who was most severely compromised by the lockout. So are my Rams.

We might be the favorite to win the division, but don't kid yourself: nothing is in the bag, and if we win this sack of shit, it won't mean much. It simply means that we were the most buoyant turd in the toilet bowl.

At the root of my pessimism is Billy Devaney's handling of the draft and free-agency.

As you well know, I was ready to bury Devaney in an unmarked grave in the middle of Nevada desert immediately after the draft. As far as I am concerned, he made all the wrong moves, not all the right moves.

In free agency, we have done something close to nothing to plug out critical holes. Do you honestly expect me to be excited about the signing of Eagle safety Quentin Mikell? Do you expect me to be excited about the signing of ball-dropping wide-receiver Michael Sims-Walker from the Jaguars? If you do, you are crazy. Neither of these men are capable of changing the fate of the Rams organization.

Now, I hope they prove me wrong, but I seriously doubt they will.

You do know that Zac Diles is a cast-off from one of the worst defenses in the league? You do know that Al Harris, great as he once was, is 36 years of age, and might not make the team.

I like the signing of Harvey Dahl, but only up to a point. It would have been better if we had gotten Mike Pouncey and Harvey Dahl.

Rumor has it we are close to acquiring a running back. Unless that man is Ronnie Brown of the Dolphins, we will not obtain a man capable of changing the fate of the organization. Ronnie just might...

Bottom line is that we just didn't make much progress this season. Like the Bengals, we seem to be ballin' on a budget. We don't seem to be making any high-quality moves. We still don't have a playmaker for Sam Bradford to work with. This pisses me off and frustrates me in the extreme.

Because so many other good and exciting things seem to be happening in my life at this point, it has been easy to turn a deaf ear to the NFL Network, not that they have had much to say about my Rams lately. There has been virtually no coverage of the Rams lately, because there has been nothing to talk about. No story hear folks.

Inept management is the story line here. If he were doing good things, Devaney would have one hell of an advocate in me. However, that just isn't the case.

Bottom line is this: I believe 2011 will be a lost season for the Rams, just as it will be for a whole bunch of NFL teams damaged by the recent labor strife.

Deep-offseason Incendiaries

Intro

It’s against my policy to comment on the NFL during a deep-offseason lockout. Still, the NFL Network managed to come up with an incendiary last night that will get me to break policy. If I didn’t know better, I would swear that the writers at the NFL Network crafted a flaming arrow specifically designed to flush me out.

Which Heisman winning QB will have the most wins in 2011?

So the question was put to us: Which Heisman winning QB will have the most wins in 2011?

• Tim Tebow
• Sam Bradford
• Carson Palmer

Early on, Sam Bradford was leading at 55% of the vote. By the end of the show, Tim Tebow had run away with it, leading by 88%. Carson Palmer had just 1% of the vote. This is all beautifully designed to trigger all kinds of controversy, especially with a guy like me.

Unfucking the question

First of all we to do quite a bit of straightening out before we can approach this question:

1. Quarterbacks don’t win games. Teams do.
2. Football isn’t fucking baseball. This is a team sport involving actual athletes.
3. Carson Palmer has retired. How can you put him on the list?
4. The question should be rephrased for accuracy: Who will win more games, the Rams or the Broncos? This is the correct way to state the question

4. The question should be rephrased for accuracy: Who will win more games, the Rams or the Broncos? This is the correct way to state the question

88% say the Broncos will win more games than the Rams

If so, this will be a solid step forward for the Broncos, and a significant step back for the Rams. The vote, in itself, is a hell of a referendum on Billy Devaney’s pathetic excuse for a draft. Believe me, if I happen to see that guy, I’m going to break his nose… and his legs.

You might argue that this vote is due to the greater popularity of the Broncos vs. the Rams with general public. You could argue that this vote is due to the greater popularity of Tim Tebow over Sam Bradford with the general public. You might argue that this vote came from impartial observers who simply feel that the Broncos have an easy schedule and the Rams have a tough schedule.

No matter how you slice it, Devaney did not develop much confidence in the general public with his most recent crappy draft. The public would not feel emboldened to make such a comment if we had had a good draft.

Stuck on the fence

Ordinarily, this is the sort of question I would not comment on. It’s sorta like asking Archie who is better: Peyton or Eli. As you all know, I have declared that Tim Tebow is the son I never had. I am still sore that my Rams passed on him. As you know, all Ram-fans have pretty well adopted Sam Bradford. This includes me.

The Rams are my 31-32 year obsession. The Broncos have long been a favorite of mine, but especially now that they have Tim Tebow. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t chose to comment on such a question.

Do I think it is possible for the Broncos to win more games than the Rams? Sure it’s possible. For the lack of one Mike Pouncey, Sam Bradford could get injured and miss most of the year. I would hate to see the outcome of that season. John Fox could do a stellar job of re-assembling that Bronco defense, and you might see them win 7 or 9 games this season.

Do I think any of these things are likely? Not likely, but not precisely remote possibilities either. The 2011 season could unfold this way.

The Last Gasp of a Dying Man

So Panthers actually went and did it… They drafted Cam Newton with the #1 pick overall in the entire draft. I ought to be happy for the kid, but I am not. I think they made this decision for all the wrong reasons. I think the plan going forward is wrong also. I think this is going to be a historic disaster for all concerned.

What were the reasons? Let catalog them for you.

• The failure to identify and fire the real source of their failures last season: the General Manager Marty Hurney.
• The spectacular error of fingering former Head Coach John Fox for the disaster of 2010.
• A very quick surrender on their 2^nd round pick last year, Jimmy Clausen… a dude I warned you about.
• The 48% owner Jerry Richardson got involved in the process deeply this year, insisting they settle their problems at the QB position, regardless of where that might take them.
• The popularity of SEC football in the North Carolina region almost assures the Panthers a few sell-outs in the beginning of 2011.
• The further error of hiring defensive coach Ron Rivera, a man with no particular plan offensively speaking.
• Having just been granted a temporary stay of execution, Hurney did his owner's bidding, and selected Cam Newton. This is the last gasp of a dying man.

First of all, let’s call a spade a spade. The wheels fell off the Panther machine last season because Marty Hurney is a wretched GM. The guy constantly mortgages his picks, converting 1^st rounders into 2^nd rounders, 2^nd rounders into 3^rd rounders. This is a magic trick any fool can perform, but why would you want to? Further, he allowed marquee players like Julius Peppers to get away in free agency without obtaining any real compensation for them. Given one bad move after another, the talent pool finally dwindled down. This is why they lost in 2010. They were empty of offensive talent, but the defense also lacked punch.

Surely, Marty Hurney should have been identified by owner Jerry Richardson as the source of the team’s difficulties. Surely, Marty Hurney should have been fired. Surely, John Fox was not the source of the bad moves identified above. Somehow Jerry Richardson identified John Fox as the problem, and fired him. Somehow, he decided Marty Hurney was not the problem, and should be allowed to continue.

I would call that a serious fuck-up. I would consider that evidence of straight-up incompetence. Nothing more, and nothing less.

If I didn’t have plenary evidence of incompetence before the draft, I sure do now. After finishing at the bottom of the league in offensive, the solution was to select a new (defense-oriented) head coach, and select Cam Newton in the draft.

So what is the plan going forward? Logically, I think we have to conclude that they are going to go with the Ryan-Cunningham offense this year. What is that offense? Once upon a time, a great defensive coach named Buddy Ryan slapped his new QB (Randal Cunningham) on the back and said “Go out there and make 2 or 3 big plays, kid, and my defense is going to make it stand up.” That was the entire offensive game-plan each week and every week in Philadelphia, once upon a time. We call that sandlot improv style the Ryan-Cunningham offense. The secret is that there is no secret. We’re just going to allow our athletic QB to run around and make some plays ad-hoc.

Will it work? It might work, and it might not. We’re going to see if Cam is a better prospect than Cunningham. I think they are comparable in many ways. Just remember, Cunningham never developed and blossomed as a true passer until he got together with Dennis Green. That was his first stay with an offensive coach who was interested in developing Cunningham’s ability to orchestrate a sophisticated offense. He could have been one of the greatest of all-time, but the Ryan-Cunningham offense was his ruination.

You may see Cam Newton run around a lot this coming season (if there is a season) and he may be able to get the Panthers 6 or 7 wins. Unfortunately, I think the Panthers will take a pass on developing Cam as a true pocket passer. I think the Ryan-Cunningham offense will be his ruination.

Once upon a time, the Titans hired a sophisticated offense coach named Norm Chow from USC. Norm wanted to select Matt Leinart from USC in the 2005 draft. The owner said “No” and insisted the team select Vince Young. Norm was fired after his first year because he couldn’t get Vince to learn and accept the discipline of a sophisticated pro-style offense. The owner chose Vince over Norm. It took a couple more years for the disaster to develop, but in the end owner Bud Adams lost his head coach Jeff Fisher, his quarterback Vince Young, and his former OC Norm Chow. Now all four men have careers in serious question in the year 2011. Leinart is also a casualty of this error.

Life might have been better for Bud Adams if he had not insisted on Vince Young, and if he had allowed Norm Chow to select Leinart. History could have been very different for all concerned. There may be a parallel universe where the Titans are a great team in 2011 with Leinart as their franchise QB.

In 5 years I think the Titans’ history will repeat itself in Carolina.

Devaney is lucky I don't own a gun. I'd shoot him.

So, I going to spit this out real quick and that will be the very last I have to say about the subject. I'm not going to have anything to say about the Rams for a good long time after this.

So when the 47th pick comes up, we have a gift from God awaiting us. Greg Little, the good prospect among the several character guys coming out UNC, is still waiting on the board for us. Guess what? We select yet-another tight end nobody in Lance Kendrick. Greg Little is selected by Mike Holmgren at pick 59.

Good people of Cleveland, I hope you appreciate the great and good stewardship you are receiving from Mike Holmgren. He will have you in the playoffs shortly.

So when our 78th pick comes up, we have another gift from God staring us in face. Leonard Hankerson is there for us, just as CBS Sports projected. Naturally, both ESPN and NFL Network cut to commercial during this pick. Nobody wants to see what the Rams are doing in this draft.

When we get the news, the selection is Austin Pettis. The NFL Network's enthusiasm for the pick was underwhelming to say the very least. The guys on the NFL Network had nothing positive to say about this. The NFL.com website suggests that Pettis may compete for the #3 receiver spot on the team. So Pettis may compete for the #3 spot on the worst receiver corp in the NFL.

That's just fucking great.

The Redskins immediately pull Hankerson. They probably couldn't believe their great luck. The moment the Redskins select Hankerson, the NFL network crew did have words of praise for Hankerson. Mayock again cautioned about Hankerson's drops, but there can be little doubt that there was much greater enthusiasm for Hankerson than Pettis.

Stick a fork in folks. It's over now. The talent falls off hyperbolically from this point on, and we didn't get much of anything in the first three rounds.

Maybe the 49ers will win the NFC West in 2011... the horror...

I honestly have no clue what Devaney was thinking. This man's thought process totally escapes me. How he put this board together I will never understand.

This is a discrediting draft. If I didn't know better, I would say Devaney was selecting just to spite me. Of course, the real truth is that the Irish Pisces just had too much to drink.

Why I didn't like that pick last night

So I got a text message from a disappointed buddy this morning. He said he checked my blog around midnight and wanted to know why I didn't like the selection of Robert Quinn. I really don't want to waste time writing about this draft anymore, but since this came from a buddy of mine, I'll spell out my reasons.

Setting aside the fact that Quinn is what Mayock would called "a character guy", forgetting the medical red-flag for a brain tumor, setting aside that many team doctors in the NFL did not clear him to play, throwing out the fact that he did not play in his junior year due to NCAA suspension, dismissing the fact that we effectively drafted a sophomore, tossing out the fact that this is 265 pound defensive end who only benched 225 22 times, and setting aside the fact that defensive end was not a position of need for the Rams...

There's absolutely nothing wrong with this pick. It's a fucking great pick...

But then we would still have to deal with the Mike Pouncy thing. Perhaps it would help if we laid down the first precepts of drafting to ensure that we come to a right conclusion on this matter:

1. You never gamble.
2. You don't take risks in this game
3. You draft blue-chippers.
4. You take can't-miss sure shots whenever you can find them
5. You fill needs
6. You don't draft at strength positions when you have needs that must be filled
7. Did I mention that this is not a fucking Mississippi river boat?
8. Did I mention we don't gamble in this game?
9. Did I mention that we select sure-shot blue-chippers where ever they present themselves?
10. I hope I didn't forget to mention that you fill needs with you picks.

Now given these 10 absolute cardinal maxims, let me ask you the following question: You have a blue-chip, sure-shot, no-risk kid on the board who fills a need. You also have a medical red-flag character guy on the board who does not fill a need. Which one of these two kids do you select?

If you're Devaney and Spagnuolo you take the medical red flag character guy who doesn't fill a need.

Mike Pouncy was the sure-shot, no-risk, can't miss kid who filled a position of great need. Robert Quinn was the medical red-flag character guy who plays at position of strength for the Rams.

"Oh but we had him higher on our board than Mike Pouncey"

Well then, you were just absolutely and completely wrong weren't you now? I mean 100% wrong with a 100% chance of being 100% wrong and a 0% chance being even 1% right. That's like saying 2+2=9. It just ain't so.

"Oh but the whole league had Quinn rated at #6 in this draft."

Well then this would indicate that the whole league fucked up then, now doesn't it? I don't care if 300 people tell me 2+2=9. This just ain't so. This would only indicate that 300 people are wrong. I am still right when I say 2+2=4. This is not a democracy people, there is a straight up and down logical decision here.

Let's face the facts folks: This is a Steve Spagnuolo special. I am sure he was just in love with this kid, seeing a potential Justin Tuck there. He was just enamored with the sex-appeal of a killer pass rusher and he took leave of his senses. I am sure he talked Devaney into it. Since our board was absolutely decimated by the 13 picks ahead of us, Devaney allowed it.

If I was Stan Kroenke, there would be a whole lot of ass-chewing going on this morning. The 'ole F. Dick meat clever would make it's appearance again.

Almost draft time folks

Everybody wants to move down

Right now everyone is buzzing about the fact that Broncos, Bengals, Cardinals and 49ers have all made phone calls suggesting their picks are for sale. According to Jason La Canfora these guys want to move down. You can read about it here.

Mine is not to question why, mine is but to profiteer on their dismay.

Folks, it looks like Billy Devaney will have no shortage of trading partners with whom he can work a deal. It looks like our picks may be in demand by teams higher up. We could get a nice reduction if pick-point costs if all these cats get into a reverse bidding war.

This is very, very good news. I am more confident now than ever that we will nail one of the top 2 prospects at the wide receiver position. I am fired up, optimistic, and expecting more good news.

Did you catch No Huddle on the NFL Network last night?

If you did, you saw not one but three former Rams talking about Wide Receivers. This was no co-inky-dink I am sure. The league knows that Ram-fans are more interested in the receiver class this year than any other fan-base in the nation. They knew damn well we would love to hear our guys take on the receiver class.

You can see some of the video here.

There was a pretty strong agreement there that A.J. is #1 on the board. Both Kurt and Torry said terribly flattering things about A.J. So did Moochie.

Only super-scout (and former Ram safety) Corey Chavous gave a small caveat in his endorsement. Although he endorsed A.J., he focused on the mental and physical toughness of Julio Jones. A.J. has missed some time with minor injuries (not much) while Julio has played straight through such trifling pain. Of course, this made everyone recall Julio's massive combine performance on a broken foot.

I don't know... maybe I am little too obsessed with A.J. Julio is the very best pieces of Anquan Bolden and Terrell Owens, with none of the negatives. That's one hell of a statement, but I think Julio can back it up. When you think about how physical and tough he is, we just can't go wrong with Julio Jones.

It's like I have said many times: Heads we win, tales we win. Both of these guys are winners. If we get either one of them we are fine.

NFL Draft Pick Value Chart

For those who do not know, the NFL has a chart that shows the comparative value of each draft pick in each and every round. This is a manufacturer's suggested retail price for each pick. It sets a framework for horse trading.

Do they follow it strictly? Nope. Some GMs dump a pick. Some GMs acquire a king's ransom for a pick. It all depends on the time and the season and negotiators. Nevertheless, this chart defines the presumed trade value of each pick.

Please keep this chart in mind as I publish my next several blog entries.

Draft Pick Value Chart
Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4		Round 5		Round 6		Round 7
Pick	Points	Pick	Points	Pick	Points	Pick	Points	Pick	Points	Pick	Points	Pick	Points
1	3000	33	580	65	265	97	112	129	43	161	28	193	15.2
2	2600	34	560	66	260	98	108	130	42	162	27.6	194	14.8
3	2200	35	550	67	255	99	104	131	41	163	27.2	195	14.4
4	1800	36	540	68	250	100	100	132	40	164	26.8	196	14
5	1700	37	530	69	245	101	96	133	39.5	165	26.4	197	13.6
6	1600	38	520	70	240	102	92	134	39	166	26	198	13.2
7	1500	39	510	71	235	103	88	135	38.5	167	25.6	199	12.8
8	1400	40	500	72	230	104	86	136	38	168	25.2	200	12.4
9	1350	41	490	73	225	105	84	137	37.5	169	24.8	201	12
10	1300	42	480	74	220	106	82	138	37	170	24.4	202	11.6
11	1250	43	470	75	215	107	80	139	36.5	171	24	203	11.2
12	1200	44	460	76	210	108	78	140	36	172	23.6	204	10.8
13	1150	45	450	77	205	109	76	141	35.5	173	23.2	205	10.4
14	1100	46	440	78	200	110	74	142	35	174	22.8	206	10
15	1050	47	430	79	195	111	72	143	34.5	175	22.4	207	9.6
16	1000	48	420	80	190	112	70	144	34	176	22	208	9.2
17	950	49	410	81	185	113	68	145	33.5	177	21.6	209	8.8
18	900	50	400	82	180	114	66	146	33	178	21.2	210	8.4
19	875	51	390	83	175	115	64	147	32.6	179	20.8	211	8
20	850	52	380	84	170	116	62	148	32.2	180	20.4	212	7.6
21	800	53	370	85	165	117	60	149	31.8	181	20	213	7.2
22	780	54	360	86	160	118	58	150	31.4	182	19.6	214	6.8
23	760	55	350	87	155	119	56	151	31	183	19.2	215	6.4
24	740	56	340	88	150	120	54	152	31.8	184	18.8	216	6
25	720	57	330	89	145	121	52	153	31.2	185	18.4	217	5.6
26	700	58	320	90	140	122	50	154	30.8	186	18	218	5.2
27	680	59	310	91	136	123	49	155	30.4	187	17.6	219	4.8
28	660	60	300	92	132	124	48	156	30	188	17.2	220	4.4
29	640	61	292	93	128	125	47	157	29.6	189	16.8	221	4
30	620	62	284	94	124	126	46	158	29.2	190	16.4	222	3.6
31	600	63	276	95	120	127	45	159	28.8	191	16	223	3.3
32	590	64	270	96	116	128	44	160	28.4	192	15.6	224	3

I told you the Redskins weren't taking a receiver

This morning the Internet is buzzing like hell with news of the Redskins negotiating with the Broncos for that #2 overall-pick in Thursday's draft. Some are saying the Redskins' move was premature. On the contrary, the timing is perfect. We are presently only about about 30 hours from gavel-time. It's time to go, buddy. You better be negotiating right now.

For the Redskins, the move is perfectly understandable. It's pricey as hell, but it is perfectly understandable. Shanahan's WCO doesn't work without a smart AND mobile quarterback. Say what you will about his very lack-luster college career, but Gabbert is very smart and very mobile. He fits the suit very well. Sometimes you just have to pay what it costs.

If you want that Bob Kramer knife, you're going to have to pay through the nose to get it.

The McNabb story in Washington has ended tragically, and so will the Shanahan story if he doesn't bust a move. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Shanahan needs defense like a dying man in the desert needs water. He may be planing to do what I hope my Rams will do: Fix the defense in free-agency.

I do want to crow for a moment, though. I told you the Redskins weren't taking a receiver. All the stuff about Julio Jones was horse shit from the beginning. The only thing worse than a QB with no WR is a WR with no QB. Just ask the Cardinals.

As Michael Lombardi has said many times, there is a certain order of operations you go through in building an offensive unit. The order of operations is important. Go out-of-order you will get bad results. Here is that order.

1. Offensive line
2. Quarterback
3. Receivers

You need the line first, or you will have a David Carr situation. You need the Quarterback next. There is no point in tying up picks and money in a receiver until you have a trigger man who can make him work. I have excluded the RB positions because this is increasingly a commodity position handled by a committee.

On the other half of the equation, I don't think I like this deal if I am the Broncos. I know the defense needs a full scale rebuild. I know this is a defense-rich draft. I know you want several of these players, not one. I know you feel you can get several by doing this deal.

Nevertheless, Marcell Darius and Von Miller are two of the crown jewels in this draft. I think I would probably take Von Miller and see if I could arrange Phil Taylor from Baylor later on. I would reckon this as the best way to rebuild my defense. You might also take Darius and Akeem Ayers.

We'll see if the Redskins make it worth John Elway's trouble. Shanahan and Elway certainly have deep-ties. I am sure there is enough personal good-will there to get the deal done, if the figures are right.

Why everybody loves A.J. Green

So, a budy of mine at work--who is a dedicated Ram-fan--asked me why I am so sweet on Green when Julio is the guy all the Ram-fans are talking about. I answered him pretty directly.

A.J. Green is a 6'4", 211 pound version of Lynn Swann who is faster and more bio-mechanically efficient going into and coming out of his breaks. He has a 31 pound weight advantage on Swann, a 5 inch height advantage on Swann, and 1 or 2 tenths speed advantage on Swann. I think he leaps higher in combat, and uses his hands better. He's a lion-hearted kid also.

I know this is saying a hell of a lot, but I think my man can back it up all the way. I'm not the only one. Charley Casserly has already said he would select A.J. #1 overall. I just heard Moose Johnston say the same tonight on NFL Total Access. The Moose believes A.J. is the safest pick in the entire draft. Von Miller may be a little safer, but I am pretty much online with the Moose.

As we all know coach Steve Mariucci has a new show called Game Changers, but as far as I am concerned, A.J. is the most clear-cut game changer around. This is the guy I believe will turn the tide of battle when everything is going against you.

A shout out to Billy Devaney: Think about our Rams trailing by 9 points at the start of the 4th quarter against the Ravens. The Raven defense is putting on crushing pressure. Sam has to unload an errant pass. A.J. goes up in the air and out-fights Ed Reed for the football. Reed is not only robbed of an interception, he falls down in the process. A.J. outruns everyone to the endzone. Now the Rams trail by just 2 points with 14 and change left to play.

I could see a lot of scenarios like this in the near future, and what a bright future it would be. Think of the possibilities.

Incidentally, did you see the look or Roger Goodell's face?

Just a quick hit before I get out the door to go to work.

Did you get a clear look at Roger Goodell's face as he exited the court building yesterday? He looked like someone had kicked him in the balls with an iron boot, and then hit him with a vicious upper-cut to the jaw. That was a look of profound distress, like he was trying to shake off one hell of a hit.

I am not exactly sure who instigated the current labor strife. I don't know if it was the owners who pushed this on the Commish, or if it was the Commish who had the bright idea and proposed it to the owners. In any case, the strategy is not working. The NFL has already lost it's lockout insurance policy from the networks, and now the players have basically defeated the lockout.

I think this has to be viewed as a crisis point for management. Not that it will last forever, but we could have a temporary blast of absolute baseball free agency that could see marquee players like Peyton Manning moving around at NASA moon-shot prices.

If this whole adventure was designed to peel back some labor costs, you just might have another thing coming. This is a very good object lesson in Conservatism. This is the doctrine of unforeseen consequences come home to roost. Don't upset a delicate financial balance when you have one. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Don't sew to the wind.

These guys sewed to the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind in the next 72 hours. Folks, all hell is going to break loose when the 8th Circuit orders the injunctive relief to be implemented.

Here we go, boys!

So unless you've been buried under a rock for the last couple hours, you know that U.S. District Judge Susan Richard Nelson has ruled in favor of the former player's union. You can read about it here.

You can see more here.

She has ruled that the decertification of the union is more than just a legal fiction, that federal labor law permitting the lockout of union workers does not apply to the former NFLPA, ergo sum the NFL Owner's lockout of NFL players is an illegal action under anti-trust law.

Now the owners have already filed for a stay of execution pending an appeal to the 8th circuit court, but this has to be seen as a pretty ripping victory for the players. The NFLPA's legal strategy is working. The owners have already lost their lockout insurance, and now they have lost the lockout.

It may take a day or two to get the verdict on the stay of execution, but I happen to think the owners are unlikely to win that one. It is the role of the appeal court to uphold the rulings of the lower court unless gross errors were made.

Folks, I'm going on the record with this one: Trades and free agency can begin as early as Wednesday. The league will need to implement player rules for 2011, but they will have to implement those rules, lest they be held in contempt of court. The judge has the power to throw people in jail for contempt, you know. The excitement of the Draft may be amplified about a hundred fold, folk. We could see some real wicked deal making in the prelude to the draft, and during the draft. I sure hope so.

What are the potential ramifications of this decision for the simple GM who would just want to stock his football team with the talent it needs to win?

1. Those veteran QBs just might move out of limbo quick.
2. We might not see a bunch of GMs hit the chicken switch and reach for 2nd round QBs in the first round.
3. Players can be bundled with picks, meaning we can see more draft day trades.
4. We might see my Rams answer some defensive needs through free agency rather than the draft.
5. Given the ability to package players with picks, my Rams just might move up and take that WR we are all begging for.

I am not going to play games with you guys, I love this decision to death. We going to see such a frenzy of activity it is going to be amazing. Most GMs will have to pull a 72 hour red-eye bender starting this Wednesday. This is going to be pretty exciting. This is going to be balls-out chaos.

Chris Mortensen even suggested that Peyton Manning may become an all-out free-agent here. Boy! What the 49ers would do to get him.

It's draft week folks.

We are at T-Minus 78 hours and counting to the launch of the draft folks. Thursday evening at 4:00 pm PST, the gavel will fall and the Panthers shot-clock will start. Let's hope they don't fuck it up by selecting Cam. I pitty you, Eric. You have my profound condolences.

A few key precepts

1. This is a razor-thin draft. There is no depth to this draft. Once we are thought round 3, stick a fork in it, cuz we are done.
2. The 2011 draft cannot compare in any way with the 2010 draft. 2010 was vastly superior to 2011. Understand that this is the weakest senior class Charlie Casserly has seen in 27 years in this business.
3. There will be a large and disproportionally high ratio of over-drafted disappointments and busts in this draft.
4. This is a defensive draft, not an offensive draft.
5. What depth there is in this skinny draft exists at the defensive end position.
6. The linebacker position is the thinest position in this draft class. Von Miller is the only impact player at the LB position. Akeem Ayers is the only good 2nd rounder. Chris Matthews is the only guy I want to select in round 3. This is a terrible year to be in need of a linebacker.
7. This is a bad year for the QB position. I just heard Rich Eisen suggesting that this is a 'seemingly' quarterback rich draft. This is marketing hype. It's quarterback rich like the year 2000. There may be another Brady 6 in this draft. There are more suspects than prospects at the QB position.
8. This is a wretched year for offensive linemen. Heavy-legged waist-benders with limited upper body strength, and skinny bastards too! Mike Pouncey is the only guy I would bank on as a blue-chip, can't miss prospect.
9. This is a very good year for Wide Receivers. We have two really sweet choices up top and a few others that might pan out in round 2. This is a good year to be in need of a WR.

Devaney unlikely to move up?

I want to preface this section by reminding us all that this is disinformation week. As Mike Lombardi says, it is liar's poker season. There will be more negative influence, trap plays, pump fakes, subterfuge and deception this week than any other week of 2011. Everyone is smoke-screening like a moe-foe, covering up their real intentions.

I have read several nasty reports that Billy Devaney intends to stay put at #14. In an interview with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Devaney said that he felt the Rams were smack in the sweet-spot of the draft. Chances are that the Rams will stay put.

Of course, Billy would not be inclined to tell you he has potential deals in the works with the Cardinals and Cowboys even if it were so, now would he? This would only make WR desperate teams more inclined to try to jump us and take their man, right? This can only increase the cost of any potential deal, correct?

I can only say the following: If we aren't smart enough to mortgage the farm to get A.J. Smith, I hope we will take either J.J. Watt or Mike Pouncey. I see these two young men as can't miss blue-chips in any system, and at various positions. Although I would love to have Watt, I supppose Pouncey fills the greater need. I would be glad to see him join the team.

Anybody remember Leonard Hankerson?

Leonard Hankerson is the latest edition of Big-Bird. He was the big-time wide receiver at The U of Miami over the past several years. His draft stock is very uncertain. Many still accord him 2nd round draft status, although many are now reporting that he is slipping into the 3rd round. Mike Mayock's review of Hankerson has inspired much fear. Mayock has emphasized the dropped passes and questionable work ethic he has seen in Hankerson, almost identifying him as a one-year wonder.

Of course, you know I greatly appreciate Mike Mayock. He is one of the few authorities I trust on the draft. However, in this case, I inclined to disagree. I know Hankerson had drop-problems early in his career. I know he has been working hard with Mark Super Duper on this problem. During his senior year I saw real progress and few if any drops. Now, I haven't seen all his game film, so there may be more drops I haven't seen.

If worse comes to worse, and we don't nail one of the top two prospects at the WR position, I would hope we would be smart enough to nail Leonard Hankerson. His combine numbers are terrific. He was sensational at the senior bowl. He is a Taurus kid and will have good synastry with a Scorpio guy like Sam Bradford. Trust me on this one. They will matchup nicely.

If we can have him in the 3rd round, we better do it. CBS Sports currently ranks Hankserson as the 80th best prospect in the draft. It should be noted that the Rams have the 78th pick. Let's get him.

It is better...

1. It is better to have one or two blue-chippers than 7 nothings and nobodies.
2. Knowing that there is little DT depth in this draft, I would hope we would select versatile dude like J.J. Watt, or pass on all of them.
3. Knowing that there are no linebackers in this draft for the Rams, it is better to get a few (like Chase Blackburn) in free agency than to draft projects.
4. Knowing that there are few offensive linemen in this draft, I hope we will have the wisdom to reach for Pouncey or pass on them entirely.
5. Knowing that there are a couple of blue-chip receivers in this draft, it is better to go after them with our draft picks than to get a temporary WR fix in free agency.
6. It is better to fix our defense in free agency than to reach for some questionable prospects through the middle rounds of this razor-thin draft.
7. Strangely enough, I think it is better to go contrariwise in this draft and select offense over defense.

What we need to remember

1. There ain't no use in having a good quarterback if you don't have a receiver to catch his passes down field.
2. Having a quarterback with no receiver is like having a cigarette with no lighter.
3. Having a quarterback with no receivers is like having cornflakes with no milk.
4. Having a quarterback with no receivers is like having peanut butter with no jelly.
5. Having a quarterback with no receivers is like having Mac with no cheese.
6. We have $50 million invested in a pretty good quarterback
7. We have an absolute #1 pick in phattest draft in recent memory long-sunk in a pretty damn good quarterback.
8. It is a categorical moral imperative to weaponize Sam in this 2011 draft.
9. Getting a big-time receiver in this 2011 draft is the sine qua non, that without which nothing else is possible.

So quarterbacks are good if they are drafted in the first round?

Intro

You know how much I love the NFL Network. These guys are my evening house guests every night. Unfortunately, I am going to have to take exception to one big logical fallacy I have heard repeatedly in recent days. This fallacy is posed as a question and it goes a little bit like this:

“If the quarterbacks in this year’s draft are so bad, why are so many of them going to be drafted in the first round?”

The answers are incredibly obvious, but let’s do a bit of reductio ad absurdum just for fun. You know I just loved that reductio ad absurdum to death. This is the force that made my UCLA degree worth more than $0.25 thimble full of coffee. It’s more fun than a barrel full of monkeys.

Implicit within the NFL Network’s argument are the following key points:

• A player must be good to be taken in the first round.
• Conversely, if a player is taken in the first round, he must be good.
• If a bunch of teams are considering a QB in the first round, they must be impressed by the good quality of this year’s crop.
• If a bunch of QBs go in the first round, it must be a good QB year.

Fallacious! Fallacious! Fallacious! This is bogus false reasoning, and completely erroneous also. Fallacious reasoning doesn’t always guarantee a false conclusion; it just means your logic is bad. In this case, the logic is bad and the conclusion is absolutely false. What is the real story?

Rebuttal

Rather than simply stating the obvious let’s do this catechistically. I’ll phrase my answers as questions.

1. If Andrew Luck had come out of Stanford this year, who would be the #1 QB in the 2011 draft?
2. How many teams need a QB this year?
3. If we had had a normal free agency/trade period would all of these teams be in need of QB as we approach the draft?
4. If free agent QBs such as Mark Bulger had flown free, would the Cardinals be looking for a QB right now?
5. If QBs such as Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb were on the trading block, would the Vikings and 49ers be looking for a QB right now?
6. If Vince Young had been released, would QB demand in this draft be absolutely unchanged?
7. If Carson Palmer (whose Bengal jersey I am wearing right now) had not abruptly pulled up stakes and retired, do you think the Bengals would use the #4 pick for QB… if they get a shot at it?
8. There are several brand-new first year coaches who have no quarterback to speak of. Several are in near-rebuilding situations. Jim Harbaugh, Leslie Frazier, Mike Munchak and Huge Jackson are in this situation. {Incidentally, the Raiders need a QB, and they don’t want to admit it.} Would QB demand be unchanged if you didn’t have new coaches, hoping for a good start?
9. Do you think the lockout and lack of free agency has had zero impact on club plans in the 2011 draft?

The Solution Set

Folks we live in a time of remarkable NFL crisis. About 10-12 teams need a QB. There is a chronic and serious quarterback shortage in the land. The handful of available (and competent) QBs are quite literally locked out of reach of the needy beggars who want them. The desperation is building. It is palpable and it is visceral.

Against all common sense, many teams are considering the chicken switch (reaching for a 2^nd rounder in the 1^st), but this does not prove that this is a good QB class. Taking an undraftable red-light kid in the 1^st round is not indication that this is a good year. The fact that desperate fools are going to hit the chicken switch is no measure of talent.

Brian Baldinger is quite correct when he says that you’re taking a big risk if you wait for the second round. There might not be anything there for you when the time arrives. Certainly, you will curse the football gods if this happens to you. However, just a few years down the road, you may be counting this event as one of the best things that ever happened to you.

My Perspective

I wouldn’t take Ryan Mallett. I wouldn’t take Cam Newton. I would take Blaine Gabbert, but the price is outlandish. If he hits, it will look like genius. I love second round QBs, but I like my 2^nd rounders in the 2^nd round; not the first. I would love to get Christian Ponder in the 2^nd. I would love to get Andy Dalton in the 2^nd. If you give me Dalton in the 3^rd, I’m going to jump through the roof. I am intrigued by Colin Kaepernick, or are we calling him Optimus Prime now?

Charnak and the Wonderlic have scared me regarding my favorite kid Jake Locker. Nevertheless, I would still take the risk on this kid. I think Jake Locker is a lot better than Kyle Boller.

Tragedy in Carolina

Folks, it looks like the Panthers are going to be next team to step up to the plate and make a tragic mistake. They're going to gamble on a quarterback, and the one they are focused on is not a good gamble. I feel bad for my buddy Eric. We've been talking football for four years now, and he is a big Panther fan. Last year, I went through this hell, but it was nothing compared to what he's going through now.

So why am I down on Newton? Setting aside the fact that his daddy is a deliverance pastor who asks for college bribe money, setting aside the cheating on tests at Florida, setting aside the stolen laptop, setting aside the bailout from Florida just ahead of the posse, setting aside the one-year wonder thing at Auburn, setting aside the bailout from Auburn just ahead of the posse, forgetting about both entertainers and icons, dismissing the 21 on the Wonderlic, we still have to deal with the Gruden thing.

Jon Gruden has reprised his lovely role in ESPN's quarterback-shakedown series this year, and Newton was the most recent kid to show up on the show. It did not look good to me folks. Boggies were showing up on my radar. Mike Florio put it succinctly when he said "Newton comes to the NFL with zero knowledge or experience regarding the way that offensive plays are constructed and called"

Folks, it ain't often that Mike Florio and I see eye-to-eye. We do this time. His conclusion is the logical one based on the evidence we saw. I saw a guy who was painfully uncomfortable with the entire situation, and painfully trying to smile his way past the agony of it. That's not good. My hair was on fire during that segment. If you compare and contrast that to the cool/easy competence that Blaine Gabbert showed in Moochie's "Game Changers" chalk-talk, we're talking about a led vs. gold comparison here.

Mel Kiper Jr. recently said that Clausen's appearance on Gruden's show last year damaged his stock, and promoted his slide. Folks, Clausen did a much better job in his Gruden interview than Newton did. My hair wasn't on fire during the Clausen segment. It was during the Newton interview. I think this one ranks at the tops of my "Politically Damaging" pre-draft events.

I'm not saying I'm sold on Gabbert as the top pick in the draft, but if you have determined that QB is your greatest need, you would be suicidal to select Newton ahead of Gabbert. You are certifiable if you make that choice.

This is reflected the most recent series of Scouts Inc Top 32 rankings. Gabbert is headed north. Newton is headed south. Gabbert was ranked at #8, he is now at #5, although his score of 96 has not changed. Newton's score has dropped by single point (from 94 to 93), and he has now slid from #12 to #16. This is Gruden's work for sure. Gabbert is probably rising because he acquitted himself very well on "Game Changers" and Gruden's show.

Nevertheless, the Panthers are signalling that they are preparing to make a tragic mistake. Just about all Mock drafts published recently reflect their signals, showing Newton as the #1 pick. Against all reason, they are preparing to fuck themselves in the ass. It's going to cost them 5 lost years folks.

Highly respected voices on NFL Path to the draft support this move. Guys like Charles Davis and Bucky Brooks defend this move, offering feeble justifications for it. "You have to take a chance on Greatness." "Playing it safe with this pick will just land them right back in this same spot next year."

I know why.

In boxing, it used to be common to use a term called "The Great White Hope". The term reflected White America's desperate craving to see a white guy reclaim the heavy weight championship of Boxing. Each time an untalented white dude would emerge in the heavy weight ranks, he would become the focus of tremendous marketing hype. A guy who was not really a contender became a contender. We knew he didn't have the stuff to defeat Muhammad Ali, Larry Holmes, Mike Tyson or Evander Holyfield, but he got the hype anyway.

The same phenomenon exists in Black America vis-a-vis NFL Quarterbacks. Black America desperately craves a great NFL Quarterback. What do we mean by great? A multi-time Super Bowl champion powering a dynasty, and a QB ranked at the top of the efficiency charts. The last great Black hope was Donovan McNabb, but with Donovan's career in limbo, someone else must fill the void. Newton is the 'born at the right time' guy who seems to have captured Black America's imagination, despite the fact that Michael Vick is much closer to the goal. Guys like Davis and Brooks seem so infatuated with Newton's physical prowess, that they are overlooking clear yellow & red flags. Davis and Brooks never do that under ordinary circumstances. They aren't doing that with Ryan Mallet who also has red-flags.

An unbiased observer can tell that this guy doesn't have what it takes to handle Ali, Holmes, Tyson or Holyfield (read: Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even Vick) but he is getting the hype anyway.

I am sure you can capitalize on this hype in the short run. This hype can and will sell a lot of tickets at the box office. If this is the only goal the Panthers have in hand at the moment, they can succeed. For those who want to win? Well... uhhhhmmm... Maybe, maybe not.

Charley Casserly recently said "I could have 25 shots at drafting Cam Newton and I would pass on him 25 times."

Consider this well before you make a mistake.

Hallelujah! I am sure glad my Rams don't need a QB this year. It is just so damn good not to need a QB in the 2011 NFL Draft! I can hardly describe to you how good it is not to need a QB this time around. I tell you, Billy Devaney's 2010 call is looking better and better all the time.

I've decided it has to be J.J. Watt

Throughout this entire draft season, nearly all Ram fans and experts have been united behind the idea that the Rams need to nail one of the top two WR prospects in this 2011 draft. Either A.J. Green or Julio Jones will be just fine. I am a little partial to Green, but don't take it hard Julio. I'm just fine if you're the guy.

Circumstances being what they are, we all know that we cannot control our destiny in this draft. We would need a good dancing partner to move up. We would need some good breaks for Julio and especially A.J. to fall our way. These things are outside our control. We can try to influence the situation, but we can't be certain of anything.

What if worse comes to worse? What if we are unable to select either of these great prospects? Well... Ive kicked this can around for several weeks now, and I've taken my time in coming up with my answer to the question. The guy I started with is the guy I finished with, but there were many swerves in the road before I got there.

It would take some time go through the decision trees and explain this situation, but if neither receiver is there for us, I think it is likely that J.J. Watt will be there. Why?

J.J. Watt is Mike Mayock's #12 prospect on the board. He is considered a better fit for the 3-4 than the 4-3, but I think that's horse shit. Any defense and any coordinator would love to have this kid. I think Coach Spagnuolo will love this kid to death. However, 5 technique is the prevailing opinion about the kid. Why do I love this kid? Because he reminds me very strongly of Grant Wistrom, one of my favorite Rams, and one of the most underrated dudes in our team's history.

There are a limited number 3-4 teams with a high need for a 5-technique DE. The three teams in range are the Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins, and Houston Texans.

I think Dallas is unlikely to take Watt. They would only do so to fuck the Redskins. This is possible, but unlikely.

The Redskins are the most significant threat to take J.J. Watt. Watt is one of the prime suspects on the Redskins draft board. Understand this: If they take J.J., they pass on Julio Jones. That is good for us.

The Texans are another major threat to take J.J. Watt. Everyone agrees that the Texan secondary is dogshit at best, so a defensive back is the primary suspect here. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that either of the top two corners will be there at #11. There are no other DBs worth taking at #11. The next best thing is another killer 5 Technique who will work with Mario Williams to pressure the passer. However, the way things are going Da'Quan Bowers may just fall through to #11. The Texan administration may find him to be too much temptation to pass up. If you want a pass rusher, you might want Bowers.

If Watt passes this gauntlet of three teams, we are home free. I seriously doubt either the Vikings or the Lions will select J.J. Watt.

What do we get in J.J. Watt? We get a killer defender who can play DT and DE. He should have great chemistry with both Chris Long and Coach Spagnuolo. We get great leadership qualities in a kid who is going to be a hall of fame coach some day. I can see no downside in this kid. He is the most solid guy for us on the board.

A couple words of warning. There is a possibility that the Titans may pass on Nick Fairley. If they do, the Vikings might not. However, I would... always, and without exception. Bust warnings have been circulating like crazy about this kid, and everybody is concerned. You can read one such prophecy here.

Why? Nick pops up tall and straight to sprint around blockers and get to the QB. This may have worked for him in college, but I am surprised it did. As a DT, you have to stay low. This is why short guys like me and D'Marco Farr once upon a time had some success (although I never made it to the NFL). It is easy to stay low when you are short.

The first time Fairley pops up tall and tries to sprint around in the NFL, some big, ugly, nasty, smelly offensive guard (like Richie Incognito) will ball up two big fists and punch the hell out of his chest. This will break his balance and either knock him back, or knock him on his ass. I expect to see a lot of Fairley on his ass next season. This kid is banned. I am not taking him, no matter what. I don't want the kid. You take him.

Da'Quan Bower is another kid with some remote possibility of dropping through to us. Would I take him? Errrrrr... probably not. I don't dislike the kid. I feel bad for him. He has a medical red flag. The knee is a big problem. I know about torn Meniscusi. I've had several. I know about degenerative arthritis. I have advanced osteoarthritis in both knees. I know it gets worse. It doesn't get better. Right now, the fortune tellers are forecasting a foreshortened career for the kid. I couldn't justify this choice.

Congratulations to Sam Bradford, Charlie Casserly's top QB of the past four drafts

So if you were watching Path to the Draft this evening, you know the NFL Network asked Charlie Casserly to rank top prospect Blaine Gabbert versus the other successful 1st round QBs who have come out of the past 3 drafts. Charlie combined all the first rounders from 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 and came up with the following rankings.

1. Sam Bradford, Rams 2010
2. Matt Ryan, Falcons 2008
3. Matt Stafford, Lions 2009
4. Blaine Gabbert, ???? 2011
5. Mark Sanchez, Jets 2009
6. Joe Flacco, Ravens 2008
7. Josh Freeman 2009.

There you have it folks, Charlie says Sam is the best pro-prospect QB of the past four seasons. How about 'dem apples? You can watch the video here.

Why Sam? One word: Accuracy. I had a hunch he was going to say that. Casserly makes no bones about it when he says that throwing accuracy is the most important talent/skill a quarterback can possibly have. As Troy Aikman says, all the size, strength, speed, and toughness in the world won't do a QB any good if he can't put the football where it has to go on any given play. Charlie says Sam is way more accurate that any other guy on that list.

The one quibble I had with his ranking system is the position of Josh Freeman at #7. Although I have not said much about it, I am very bullish on the future of the Bucs. I think they are looking like a fundamentally solid team on offense. They need some additional work on defense, but I think they will make the playoffs and give some people fits in 2011... if there is a 2011.

Certainly, Freeman is the key to their success. Tampa won some very close games last season, not the least of which was their battle with my Rams. That had a hell of a lot to do with the clutch drives and clutch plays Josh Freeman made late in the game.

I am extremely partial to clutch players. If you are a QB with fantastic comeback ability, you will score thousands of extra credit points in my book. The Unitases, Staubachs, Elways, and Roethlisbergers of this world rank at or near the top of my all-time great list because of their incredible clutch play.

Josh Freeman has already shown that he can turn the tide of battle in the clutch moments of the game. Personally, I would put him no lower than 3 on the list.

In Charlie's defense, it seemed that he was ranking these young QBs as prospects. That is, based on their pre-draft scouting reports. I wouldn't be surprised to discover that some of their pro play leaked into his report, though. I will grant you that Josh Freeman surprised many of us with his clutch play. I don't know about you, but I didn't see that in the tea leaves.

A little draft update, 23 days out

Intro

We are just 23 days away from the NFL Draft. Of course, it is Mock-draft season. We see one mock draft after another, from one expert after another. Presently, a number of new trends are emerging. Just what are they?

Cam Newton goes #1 to Carolina

This notion left me shaking my head. A week after we got a scathing character report on Cam, his stock has never been higher, according to the mocks.

If true--and that's a big IF--this only goes to show that we evaluate quarterbacks on exactly the wrong criteria: Athletic ability and upside potential. Are those bad criteria? You damn betcha! We settled all of this in the debate last year, folks. The most import aspect of the QB is his mind, and particularly the intangibles of leadership, ability to handle big pressure, and desire. After this, we can begin to talk about accuracy and toughness.

There have been a hundred great athlete QBs who went bust. Not the least of these are Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell and now... maybe... Vince Young. Your athletic ability says nothing about your prospects as an NFL QB. Sorry folks that's the truth.

But is Cam likely to be the #1 selection? This is a different question. I still think the answer to that is NO. Granted, the Panthers are acting in a provocative manner right now, but I think they're playing a little game of Snooker. I think they are trying to snooker some team into making a deal for that #1 pick. That might be the Bills. That might be the Bengals. That might be the Cardinals. That might be the 49ers. That might be the Redskins.

When the chips are down on draft day, I think the Panthers won't be able to pull the trigger on a new QB. They will either trade the pick or use it for a defensive player like Marcell Dareus, Patrick Peterson, or Von Miller. If you take QB #1 in 2011, you are reaching like a moefoe. This class just isn't that good. If they do reach for a QB, it will be Gabbert.

The Bengals go defense?

You should have seen my face last night as Charles Davis and Steve Wyche had the Bengals taking defenders in their mocks. This was all the more puzzling because both Charles Davis & Steve Wyche showed Blaine Gabbert still on the board as they threw defenders at the Bengals. I almost fell out of my zero gravity recliner. That ain't easy to do folks.

Let me just say this... The Bengals want a defender with their #1 pick about as much as you want a peanut butter and motor oil sandwich, seasoned with a little Iodine-131 from Fukushima. Does that sound appetizing to you folks? I didn't think so.

Neither CB nor a DE answer pressing Bengal needs. I do believe that they are taking a QB or WR with that top pick, and then they will go after the complimentary position in the second round. It would be Gabbert in the 1st, and maybe Leonard Hankerson in the 2nd, if the scenario unfolds as Davis & Wyche have it.

Some still say that the Redskins select Julio Jones

Charles Davis is one of many who still think the Redskins will select Julio Jones. I've never bought that theory. I do worry about it sometimes, but it doesn't seem very realistic to me. If anything, this is a pimp-fake. The Skins may be trying to pimp the Rams for some picks.

The learned Redskin insider (featured on Path to the Draft) didn't buy the Jones theory either. I was encouraged by the fact that he sees things as I do. He believes the Redskins are 3-4 defensive team without 3-4 defensive personnel. Incidentally, Mike Lombardi called this one a month ago. Defense is their most devastating problem. It's even worse than their QB need.

WR is a deep, deep 3rd priority for the Redskins. No matter how bad their receiver stock is, a receiver can't help until you settle your QB problems. Furthermore, no matter how bad the QB problem is, Shanahan has a more pressing political problem.

Shanahan began his reign by blowing-up a good and functional 4-3 defense by arbitrary whim. Now the Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league. This terminated Mike's honeymoon in one shot, and created a lot of angry Redskin fans... not to mention one disgruntled Albert Haynesworth. That's $100m worth of disgruntledness there.

The consequences of this bad defensive move cannot be overstated. When Mike Shanahan get's fired in one year's time, people will point to his 3-4 defense verdict as the key mistake that shank his battleship. Notice I say when, not if. That isn't easy for me. I'm a big Shanahan fan and booster.

Shanahan's got a Fukushima Daiichi reactor leaking plutonium on his hands. He has to get this under control and clean up the mess quickly. Perforce, the Redskins go defense with this pick.

Tyron Smith is #1

Tyron Smith took a page from Andre Smith's playbook and did the shirtless Olympics at the USC Pro Day. For Tyron, it was a good move. Critics were worried about his sudden move up from 285 to 307. They were concerned that his new weight might all be flab. Nope, not even close. He looked like a clipping from the pages of the Incredible Hulk comic book. He looked every inch the prototype OT. There are questions about whether he is a right OT or left OT, but this hardly matters. He looks like the prototype, and it is a very poor class of tackles in 2011. Tyron will probably be the first offensive lineman off the board.

We'll see Jerry takes Tyron, or selects a flashy playmaker who puts butts in the seats. The Redskins fans seem terrified that the Cowboys will take their chosen 3-4 defender just to kick sand in their collective face. There may be some hair on that dog. The strategy of denial is a key stratagem in warfare.

Most teams are poorly positioned in this 2011 draft

If I've heard it once now, I've heard it a dozen times: Nobody likes their draft position in the 2011 Draft. Carolina fans are pissed that the team might reach for a QB at #1. Bengal experts are pissed that they might not get a QB at #4. Cardinal experts are pissed that they can't get a QB at #5. Dallas experts are pissed that they might not get a CB or the correct DE at #9. Redskin experts are pissed that they can't a QB at #10 and that Dallas may snatch their DE pick ahead of them. Lion experts are pissed that they might not get Tyron Smith at #13. The Rams are pissed that they might not get a crack at a receiver at #14.

Everybody is poorly positioned in this draft... except the Broncos. Many Bronco fans seem quite happy with the prospect of taking Marcell Dareus at the #2 overall slot. Some think Patrick Peterson would be better, but they also seem to like Darius.

For this reason, I suspect we may see more trade action on draft day than most experts expect. There's just too much discontentment with batting order for folks not to try something here. I think teams may find a way to help each other out. I know it seems unlikely due to the inability to bundle players and picks. It seems even more unlikely due to the inability to mortgage future picks. However, I still suspect that they may find a way to get it done this year.

The Ruling of the judge

As you know, the NFL and NFLPA just exited the courthouse in Minnesota a few hours ago. We expect a ruling in a 'a few' weeks. To me, a few weeks means at least two and less than four. Project 14 to 21 days for a ruling.

I find it intriguing that the NFL's counselor was questioned for nearly 5 hours by the judge. Comparatively little time was spent questioning the NFLPA's counselor. If you are questioned for 5 hours by the judge during a hearing, I presume this means you have a questionable position or case. Think about it folks.

Let's suppose for one moment that the judge rules in favor of the NFLPA. Let's suppose that this occurs sometime in the next 14 to 21 days. This would mean that the lockout could lifted, or partially lifted, anywhere between April 20-27. She could issue the verdict quite literally the day before the draft. That would be amazing.

It has been said that the NFL would need 24-48 hours of prep time to comply with the court order. Free agency could commence within 24-48 hours of the ruling. Suppose the verdict comes down on Friday April 22, 2011. What then?

We would have an amazing free-agency blitz in the immediate prelude to the draft. This has the potential to make for a very exciting, but chaotic and disorganized week of major moves.

Think about it folks.