Very, Very Preliminary predictions about 2010's NFL Playoff Picture

So, I'm going to break my little self-imposed rule, and blog once more about the NFL. I'll blog about Google Android development next time.

Peter King just wrote up his latest NFL Power Rankings. I was little stunned by the graphic. Aaron Rodgers and Steven Jackson were side-by side and the caption said "#1 and #32". My Rams are at the bottom of the rankings, as per usual. But Green Bay at the top?

This was an eye opener. Just yesterday, I made up my chart of projected division winners, and I chose Green Bay to win the North. I wondered if I was bit bullish on a team that gave up 51 sacks last season and had an inconsistent defense. If you listen to Peter King, I may have been a bit conservative. I am glad others see it the way I do.

So here is my reasoning:

NFC

Packers win the North because: They are more talented than the Vikings. The Vikings aren't really as talented as people make them out to be. The Pack get their left tackle back. They got lucky and scored Brian Bulaga in the draft. The defense is in the 2nd year of Dom Capers' system. Favre is really hurt. He is indecisive about surgery. They won't be shit without him. With him, they will have some difficulties matching their success of 2009 against a greatly upgraded NFC North.

The 49ers win the West by default. I believe Leinart will be a good quarterback. The first year of transition from one great QB to another is always a bitch. The Cards will step down; two more losses makes them 8-8. Mike Sandow blogged about this. 10,000 simulations of the NFC 2010 Schedule shows the 49ers winning it by default 73% of the time.

The Cowboys win the East by default. I do not believe the NFC East will be a competitive division in 2010. The Eagles are going through QB transition. They will drop down. The Redskins are going through a total remake. They will not make the playoffs or even win in 2010. The Giants could make the playoffs, but that defense will have to rank higher than 30. It doesn't looks so good for the G-Men defensively. Basically the Cowboys runaway with it, unless my Rams have impregnated them with the poison pill: Alex Barron.

Now for the controversial pick: The Falcons win the South. Nobody repeats as divisional champ in this division. The Saints now have the bullseye on their backs... in more ways than one. The Saints are now going through a Federal DEA investigation on the Vicodin scandal. If Sean Payton gets suspended for 4-6 games, forget it. The title defense is fucked. Peyton is the key to the Saints. His ultra-aggressive game management is the key to their championship style.

The Falcons are a fundamentally sound football team. They have youth, they have experience, they have all-pros, they have role-players, they have offense, they have defense, they have special teams. Basically they have everything you need to be a solid contender.

I pick the Saints and the Vikings to make the Playoffs only as wildcards. One of these teams may get bumped off if the Giants are resurgent defensively.

I pick the Packers and the Cowboys to meet in the NFC title game, but the Falcons may crash the party. I think the Cowboys have to be the mild favorite to win the NFC.

AFC

The Ravens win the North. I don't need to explain this much. The Steelers are dead meat in 2010. The Browns remain dead meat. The Bengals can make this interesting, but I think the Ravens are the prohibitive favorite to win the division and the AFC.

I Pick the Chargers to win the West by default. I am not at all bullish on the Chargers. The Chargers have a 0.000% chance of visiting the Super Bowl or winning the Super Bowl. Why do I say that? Besides a host of issues, I have two words for you: Norv Turner. The Chargers will get in and get out of the playoffs quick: Like a Pinche Vato.

Now for a really interesting pick. I think the Dolphins will win the East. Why? Brandon Marshall will make Chad Henne a ProBowl player. These two will give them a good passing attack for the first time in ages. Marshall will help end the QB nonsense in Miami. The Jets are making splashy Hollywood box-office moves, but they are not that much upgraded. Their upgrades are offset by the loss of Alan Faneca and Thomas Jones, two offensive MVP players for them in 2009. Santonio Holmes cannot even begin to contribute until week 5.

What about the Patriots? As long as they have Belichick and Brady they have a shot! Will you fuck off with that shit already? Do me a favor and shove that saying up your mama's ass. You can say utterly stupid things to fools who don't understand the game of football, but you can't say that to me. It takes a lot more than a coach and QB to win in the NFL. The Patriot Dynasty ended in very early 2008 when the Commish handed the Lombardi to the New York Giants. They are not contenders in 2010. I agree with Mel Kiper's analysis: That Patriot team looked like they had other plans for the afternoon during the playoff loss to the Ravens. They looked disinterested in the process.

Now for another interesting pick: The Houston Texans win the South. I know, they supposedly have the toughest schedule. Watch it soften as the season goes on. That schedule not going to be as tough as you think in 2010. This is a good looking team. I would feel better about this pick if they had selected Mr. Ryan Matthews in the Draft.

So why not the Colts? Aren't the Colts the most powerful team in the AFC? In theory, yes, but they have the Super Bowl looser's jinx upon them. Remember: history teaches us that the looser of the Super Bowl doesn't even make it into the playoffs the next year. If so, they don't end so well. The Cards had the best result in ages, and they still got mauled by the Saints.

The Colts have to beat tall odds to get back to the Super Bowl and win. Nobody has done this since the undefeated Miami Dolphins of 72-73. Skip that. They have to beat tall odds to simply get into the Playoffs and win a game.

I pick the Colts and Jets as the two wildcard teams, but watch for the Bengals to crash the party. Right now, the Ravens are my prohibitive favorite to win the AFC. I mean a 19.5 point favorite to win the AFC Title game. They are very heavy hitters in 2010.

Post-Thoughts

All of this incredibly preliminary. I am talking very, very, very preliminary. I want to see the 1st quarter of every preseason game before I pick my contenders for real. We have to see how 1s-vs-1s look in the 1st quarter of the Pre-Season.

At this point, I can critique my own chart by saying the following: It looks too much like last year's playoff chart. The 49ers and Falcons are new to the picture in the NFC, but nobody else is. The Dolphins and Texans are new to the AFC picture, but nobody else is.

Each year and every year something between 4-6 teams that did not make the playoffs in the year prior make it to the playoffs. The Saints didn't make the playoffs in 2008. They are the Champions now. The Jets hadn't been to the playoffs in years. They went to the AFC title game last season with a rookie QB. The Steelers were the champs in 2008. They did not make it to the playoffs in 2009.

Believe me... I can go on.

My current chart may be a little too conservative in predicting change.

Sports Illustrated's Predictions for the coming 2009 NFL Season

So, I subscribed to Sports Illustrated for the first time in my life just recently. To be honest with you, the only reason I subscribed is because the offered me both the John Madden DVD (I would have much preferred a Blu-Ray) and they gave me Madden Football 10 for the PS3. I could not resist that temptation at $49. That is cheaper than you can buy the game on line. Forget about the SI issues and the John Madden video. WOW!

So here comes my first issue, and it is the NFL Preview! Perfect! That was very nice timing indeed. Of course, I found this in my mailbox as I arrived home from work. I needed to take a fat crap at the end of the day, and SI always used to make the very best toilet literature. What splendid timing! So I took my seat on the throne and enjoyed my first NFL Preview issue in probably 20 or 22 years.

I must admit that I was a bit contemptuous as I opened these pages. I was not expecting anything edifying. SI is notorious for big pictures and thin analysis. They go more for a human story than for anything approaching solid football analysis.

Surprise! What a rush of nostalgia! I felt it all coming back to me. I grew up with Sports Illustrated. I think we all did. I used to sit in the school library reading back issues and present issues of Sports Illustrated when I was supposed to be doing my reading assignments. I did this in Junior High and High School. They didn't give me much meat about the 3-4 defense vs. the 4-3 defense. They certainly never understood what Walsh was doing during the 1981 season. Still, I loved them passionately as a kid. It was a my one life-line to Football during the off season. We had no NFL Network. ESPN didn't come along until 1983 in my hood. We could not buy NFL films. I didn't have any VHS tapes with the sport I could enjoy.

Just as the romance was starting to flame up again, and I was about to experience the sweet surrender... BAMB! SLAM! DAMN! The divisional predictions went and fucked it all to hell. What a devastating collapse...

Folks I am not going to candy-coat this for you. What I found there were nothing short of the biggest crack-pot predictions of the season so far. We only saw eye-to-eye on one set of predictions: The NFC East. Everything else is fucked up.

Take the AFC South for instance: Texans #1, Colts #2, Titans #3. There are those who truly believe that the Titans experienced the ultimate fluke season last year. Without Haynesworth, many believe they will collapse. I am not exactly one of them. I think the Colts will regain their post atop the division. The Titans will be in the playoffs. I would not pick the Texans to surpass the Colts. You must not have seen any pre-season games. The Colts starters look yoked and ready for war. SI needs to work harder on drug testing and compliance within their walls. It takes about 10,000 pounds of collective brain damage to put this prediction in print.

Take the NFC West: Seahawks #1, Cardinals #2, 49ers #3, Rams #4. Oh bouy! Now I know you are smoking Sherms. Folks, I see absolutely no reason to believe the Seahawks are improving. I see almost every reason to believe they are on the decent phase of rebuilding. If you think they are going to defeat an improved Cardinal team, I think you are experiancing a prolonged phase of grossly disoriented schizophrenia, psychosis and death. This is what happens when you roll tobacco and weed in a fatty, then dip it in PCP and embalming fluid before smoking it down. This is how you reach your goal of 10,000 pounds of collective brain damage at SI.

There are other crass jokes besides these. Still, this is the SI I remember. Peter King is often wrong. He is better at coverage than prediction.