A new plasma king? Chalk another victory for Gordon Moore

So, Google alerts just notified me that Panasonic dropped a bomb on the HDGuru.com this morning. The new V10 series is out. Evidently, the Gurus have been working on a review of the 54 inch model for sometime. They were more than sanguine. The review was almost a rave party.

As always the gurus are very professional, and they ran down the numbers for us:

1. This TV aces the standard def and high def HQV benchmark test
2. It supports standard Rec 709 very well
3. It also supports a more advanced color gamut called xvTCC, which is supported by HDMI 1.3.
4. The V10 has a color mode called Digital Cinema Color (DCC) which simulates xvTCC using your old fashioned Rec 709 Blu-Rays. Consider it upscaling for color. This is extremely exciting news.
5. For you film school fuddy-duddies who demand a dimmer and more lifeless flat-color and that ugly green/gray look: Rejoice and be glad! THX mode will make your HDTV look bad, just like a motion picture theater screen. THX mode is for you! Your antiquated mode of thought is fully supported.
6. 58 and 65 inch models are coming soon
7. Gone are the issues normally associated between brightness and Plasma. Supposedly, the V10 achieves a maximum of 87.9 Lamberts. That figure is so large it almost cannot be believed.
8. The V10 features a 96hz refresher rate that makes 24 fps films look perfect. You simply get 4 snaps of each frame. No problems with motion blur or jutter here.
9. The use of a 96hz cadence makes Motion Compensation, Motion Estimation (ME/MC) circuits unnecessary. LCDs that feature 120 or 240hz refresher rates use ME/MC to insert interpolated frames into your movie. The end result of this process is what they call SOE or the Soap Opera Effect. If you buy the V10, you will not see the soap opera effect which makes films look like live video.
10. One of the most stunning features of this HDTV is its power consumption. This plasma sips a meager 240 watts. This isn't much higher than DLPs which sip 220 watts of juice. This is a far cry from the 550 watts that plasmas used to consume just a year or so ago.

Well, if you had told me a week ago that a 54 inch Plasma HDTV could deliver mega-brightness at 240 watts, with an improved xvTVCC color gamut, and no SOE, I would have laughed at you. Right now I am pretty fucking stunned. This is almost too good to be believed. If this HDTV is what the Guru says it is, you aught to proceed to your favorite price engine to find your price and vendor.

The Guru says that this V10 series provides performance equal to or greater than the Kuro in every respect, yet it does so for less than 33% of the price tag, and at 43.6% of the wattage. Of course, if you desire a larger screen (and I do) expect a higher wattage budget to support that greater surface area.

The reduction in wattage also predicts a longer lifespan. The problem with plasma has been wattage and heat. These units have burned themselves out in past years. The problem is dramatically reduced now. I remember reading an ancient PC Zeos advertisement in which they sold on the amount of heat sinks and fans they placed on their PCs. They strongly emphasized the QA/QC report that a 10% reduction in operational temperature predicted a doubling in the lifespan of electronic equipment. Something for you to consider.

One doubt I must reference is as follows: The Guru said that this HDTV can manifest 87.9 Lamberts. According to the scientific literature 1 Lambert is equal to ^{104/pi cd/m2. So what does that mean? It means that this HDTV can crank out a theoretical 279,794.39 Candela across its 54inch surface.}

I have a very hard time accepting that. I want to see that measurement stated in Candela.

In any case, we are looking at a major triumph for Gordon Moore here. I seem to recall predicting this event right around the time Pioneer decided to withdraw from the HDTV game. I do recall saying that you won't have to wait more than 18 months before everybody is making an HDTV better than Kuro. Further, I specifically said that Panasonic was taking over the game anyhow, and that's why Pioneer ran home to mommy.

The Panasonic G10 series disappoints tremendously

So it is now time to tie up a couple of loose ends from past blog entries.  As you know, I blogged a week ago back about the advent of the Panasonic G10 series.  I was quite sanguine about the force of Moore's law, and how this HDTV was quite likely a further proof that Moore's law applies forcefully to HDTV technology.

Well... it is time to eat some crow.  Nobody likes to be taken in by the hype.  Nobody likes to fuck up.  Nobody likes to admit that they are wrong about anything.  However, it is time for me to eat some humble pie.

There are three important conclusions I reached after one hour with the G10 series at Magnolia:

1. Technologically, the G10 is nothing special.  It is not even an advance over Panasonic's current line up.  The 850 series is better.  The only positive thing that can be said for it is that it is a low-cost option.  It is substantially cheaper the 800 & 850 series from Panasonic.
   
2. THX mode absolutely stinks.  You will never see a dimmer, darker, flatter, more lifeless color in your entire life.  Those who ballyhoo this technology are absolutely and completely wrong.  They couldn't possibly be more wrong.  The ultimate reason I did not buy the G10 is because THX mode looks just plain terrible.  I had to take it out of THX mode and customize it quite a bit before it began to look reasonably decent.
   
3. David Katzmaier and Bryan Gardiner must be smoking crack together.  That is the only logical conclusion I can reach after reading and viewing their statements about the Panasonic G10.  They both view this unit as the Pioneer Kuro replacement.  Readers will know that I am not a member of the cult of Kuro.  I regard it as a strong performer, but vastly over-rated.  With that said, the G10 is absolutely, categorically not comparable to the Kuro.  The Kuro is a lot better than the G10.  The only thing they share in common is glass and plasma
   

To say that I was not impressed by the G10 would be an understatement at best.  I could have saved some $1,400 by purchasing the G10 rather than the Samsung Luxia.  Believe me, I was very well aware of this fact as I made my decision... in the comfort of my computer room at home.  I had an Excel spreadsheet in front of me, mapping out all the makes, models, vendors, prices, sales taxes, shipping costs, etc.  I self-consciously pulled the trigger on a much more expensive unit.  Why?  Because I did not want to buy the G10.  The quality level was too low to be acceptable, and drastically better options were (ultimately) affordable.  

So don't be carried away with the hype.  The Cult of Kuro is going through grief, as they openly state, because their King has died.  They are casting about, looking for a successor.  This is the first fish to pop out of the lake, and it is a plasma, ergo it must be the new king.  Rubbish!  Balls! Poppycock! Blarney!

So Dave, don't you think you are being a bit unfair to these fine gentlemen of quality and merit?  They do talk about running benchmark tests.  

As I have already stated several times in this blog, such benchmarks are predicated on the faulty proposition that the BT.709 is a perfect thing.  It is not.  If BT.709 is a perfect thing, and cannot be improved upon, the road is clear:  Nail 709 or die.  Such is not the case.  BT.709 is a political standard, assembled by industry giants who wanted to manufacture HDTVs and programming at an affordable price.  There are many ways to improve upon this standard.  Ergo, nailing the BT.709 is not really that important, and may ultimately turn undesirable as technology advances.  Arguments based on nailing BT.709 can be discarded rather easily.

What Bryan Gardiner has to say

What David Katzmaier has to say

Do you recall what I said about Panasonic and Moore's Law?

A couple of months ago, the 'intelligentsia' of the HDTV world were weaping and wailing and gnashing their teeth over Pioneer's declaration that they were quitting the HDTV business. The most decorated HDTV in the world (The Pioneer Kuro 151) was going to die. The reason? Massive losses due to a catastrophic fall-off in sales. It is not good to be the manufacturer of luxurious merchandise in a recession like this, or so they said. The cultic devotees of Pioneer chastised the public for being unwilling to pay for quality.

I went against the trend when I told you that Pioneer had been run out of the business by Panasonic. Panasonic punched them in the nose, took their lunch money, and made them cry uncle. I gave some cold comfort to the cult of Pioneer by telling them to wait 18 months, and everybody would be making HDTVs better than the Kuro 151. This prediction is based on Moore's law, and the certain knowledge that many vendors are making use of ATI & NVIDIA chips to do their video. ATI and NVIDIA are progressing much faster than Moore's law would predict.

Well, well, well, it didn't take very long for a great replacement to emerge after all did it? Right now the internet is abuzz with news of the new Panasonic TC-P50G10. It has specs which blow Kuro off the deck. HDGuru.com is freaking out completely over this screen. I am certain that Pioneer's industrial spies were aware of this development months ago. The development of this HDTV probably factored into Pioneer's decision to quit the business.

The whole package is predicated on a 12th generation plasma panel. This panel makes use of a new phosphors. It implements a 600Hz cycle for subfields. We were at 240Hz just yesterday. The power consumption, always a serious draw back of the Plasma format, has been cut down considerably, although they do not say how much. The brightness of the image, always a serious drawback of plasma, has also been increased. This one is measured at 92 ft-Lamberts which is 315 Candela or 315 Lumins. This is not nearly as bright as the experts would have you believe. It is par for the course for an average LCD computer monitor. That is generally good enough, and comfortable for most, and more than Plasma has ever had before.

The whole package is THX certified. The color is supposed to be spot-on. It even gets the pulldowns and rescales correct. Wow... I guess that leaves nothing to be desired, if you like Plasma in the first place.

How about the price? Pretty fucking good. Contrary to some unfortunate false reports, this unit is scheduled to sell for just $1800 bucks. The price has not been jacked into the stratosphere. That is a very, very nice price point for the greatest plasma TV of all-time.

My verdict: 50 is just too small to be interesting. It is good for a small apartment or a bedroom. It does not fit my living room. I am going with the new Mitsubishi DLPs. My probable target is the new WD-82737. That is the one I want.

HDGuru on the new Panasonic
Engadget HD makes some mistakes

Bye Bye Pioneer

The HDTV illuminati are disconsolate and drowning in tears. They are going to lay down and cry for a hundred years.

This week, we confirmed that Pioneer is exiting the HDTV business entirely. They aren't just dropping their famous Kuro Plasma line. They are getting out of the business of HDTVs. No Lasers. No LCDs. No DLPs. Nothing. Pioneer is out.

This brought howls of dismay from the HDTV critics, who have routinely showered Kuro with every award and superlative they could muster. The basic line goes like this “It is sad that customers won't pay for the superior quality of Pioneer. This shows that there is a race to the bottom as vendors try to cut cost in this era of economic crisis.”

Well, that is pretty nice bullshit, but bullshit none the less. Let me set the record straight: Pioneer isn't quiting because people are too stupid to recognize quality when they see it, or too cheap to pay for it when they see it. Nope. That ain't the reason at all. Pioneer got run out of the plasma market by Panasonic. Panasonic beat the hell out of them. Panasonic simply made bigger, cheaper and better looking plasma screens that Pioneer. I am talking about better image quality and better styling at the same time. Pioneer could not compete with Panasonic, and they knew it, so they quit.

As long as Panasonic is around, there simply is no reason for any rational consumer to spend $6000 on a 60 inch Kuro 151FD. You could have a 65 inch PZ850U for about $4500 instead. Plasma consumers opted for the latter in 2008. Pioneer was awash in red ink.

As I have said several times in this blog: The Kuro isn't what it is cracked up to be. It is a strong performer, but quite overrated. Certainly not the best HDTV money can buy. There was certainly a cult of Kuro during its existence, but having a cult following does not prove superiority. Plan 9 From Outer Space has a cult following. It is far from the greatest film ever made.

I don't know why, but experts get locked in an Ivory Tower echo chamber sometimes. They seem to be lemmings with herding instincts. Each year in the NFL draft, the critics get hot for some prospect who surely turns into a bust. They overlook good kids who turn into all-pros. Joe Montana was drafted in the 3rd round. Kurt Warner wasn't drafted at all. So it is with movies and so it is with HDTVs. Tim Couch and David Carr were both selected #1 overall. The NFL (regretably) showed these two to be failures. Likewise, the market has rendered its verdict on Pioneer's Kuro: Kuro is a non-viable product. This means the evaluators were wrong in their initial assessments.

Some perfectly marvelous HDTVs get mediocre reviews—or no coverage at all—just because there isn't strong mind share behind them. I don't believe HDTV critics have a real scientific methodology, despite their attempts to cloak reviews in the shroud of Science. Speaking of the Pseudo Science of HDTV reviews, let's debunk that bullshit right here and now.

There is a standard called ITU BT.709. It is sometimes mistakenly called Rec.709 by the TV critics. BT.709 is an International Telecommunications Union standard. This standard defines the pixel count, pixel depth, frame rates, and color space of HDTV. The standard can be found here. It is a digital electronics standard just like any other digital electronics standard. It was formed in the same way that all standards are formed.

Now, I happen to know something about digital electronics standards. I am a programmer with more than 14 years of professional experience and about 27 years of total experience. I have to deal with ANSI, ECMA and ISO all the fucking time. I know how these standards get formed. A number of experts are drawn from major industry firms. These experts are gathered together somewhere in the world for a conference. They are sequestered in a room once or twice. You usually have just two physical meetings. The rest of the time, the experts collaborate online for about a year or two. They vote many times by email or webform. In the end, they publish a massive document which few people ever read. This document defines the industry.

What is important about this story is that it is a messy political process, dominated by industry titans with a commercial agenda. There may be one or two technology purists on the team, but any standard SIG is comprised mostly of pragmatic business-minded men... And they are always men.

BT.709 was formed by a number experts from the largest TV firms in the world. They negotiated a product which they felt they could manufacture and sell at a reasonable profit. That was the goal. Just as surely as the first ECMA standard for C# did not define a perfect or complete language, the ITU standard for HDTV did not define the philosophically perfect spec for HDTV. They are nowhere near the logical limit of visual quality in BT.709.

BT.709 is just one conclusion among many possibilities. It is just one compromise solution which got enough votes to pass out of the standards committee. It is the spec we have. It is the spec we work with, but it isn't perfect, I can assure you of this.

In the case of any standard, there are always weaknesses. There are always obvious points where you can go above and beyond the spec and achieve much better results. Exceeding the spec is no sin. Computer firms do it all the time, with delightful results. God, where in the world would we be if NVIDIA and ATI hadn't pushed way beyond the spec for VGA and SVGA?

Whenever I read reviews of the Kuro the critics always seem to propound the fidelity of the Kuro to the BT.709 standard. Repeatedly, they state that the Kuro is the only HDTV to nail the spec perfectly. Repeatedly, they chastise inferior HDTVs for failing to hit the spec. Repeatedly, they critique better HDTVs for exceeding the spec. Mitsubishi has been criticized many times for exceeding the spec.

I can understand why you chastise HDTVs which fail on the low side. This is justified. I do not agree with criticizing firms who exceed the spec on the high side. Unless you believe BT.709 is the perfect and logical limit of video quality, firms should try to exceed BT.709. This is no sin. To characterize it as a sin is just flat cold wrong. Rather, it is progressive improvement.

Ergo the cult of Kuro is simply predicated on bad ideology. That is all. Only this and nothing more. Kuro has been crowed the king by those who hold fast to this faulty ideology. There is no need to take them seriously. Their lamentations are a tale told by an idiot full or sound and fury signifying nothing.

If you happen to be one of these poor players, strutting and fretting upon the stage, only to be heard no more, I have some good news for you. It goes like this.

HDTV is a field strongly allied to the semiconductor industry. HDTV is an example of digital science and engineering. As such, it is subject to Alan Moore's law. Moore's law basically says that we double the density of transistors on any given dice size every 18 months. This means we basically double to power and sophistication of our digital electronics products every 18 months.

If you are upset that Kuro is gone, just wait 18 months. In 18 months Vizio and Phillips will be making flat pannels superior to the current Pioneer Elite Kuro Pro 151FD.