Another word on California's HDTV law

Jeff Bertolucci of PC Magazine posted an interesting piece casting out the question of whether California's new ruling on HDTV power consumption will spell out the death warrant for Plasma HDTV.

That is a trifle sensationalistic, and will certainly galvanize the HDTV critics who seem to love the technology. I think the simple answer is "No, the new law will not kill Plasma." The longer answer is as follows: Small plasma will cease to exist. Plasma's between the size of 59inches and 85inches will become the focal point of LG and Panasonic. The small ground will be yielded to LCD and OLED... if OLED ever happens.

I see no reason to weep tears of pain over this potential outcome, as the small sector (HDTVs smaller than 58 inches) are the least compelling segment of the market. I can just hear the chorus of horror out there gawking as I write that. "What the hell are you talking about, David? Everybody buys HDTVs smaller than 58 inches?!?!?!"

I shouldn't have, and neither should you. For the record, I live in an 890 sqft home, although I intend to move to a full-scale 2000+ SqFt home at the start of 2010. Inside my meager 890 sqft apartment once sat a 61 inch HL-S6187W. Unfortunately, I was stupid enough to sell that masterpiece to raise revenue for a Luxia UN55B7000. That is a 55 inch unit. I cannot wait to lay my hands on the new 73 inch LaserVue. I am planning to add a rider to mortgage to ensure that I get this unit for my new home. I am going to watch Super Bowl 44 in the greatest of style.

This brings me to the ultimate point of my blog: If you are still targeting HDTVs between the sizes of 37inches and 55inches, you are absolutely and completely wrong. I mean you are dead wrong, with a 100% chance of being 100% wrong. The big screen experience only begins at 55inches. It doesn't end there. It doesn't end at 58inches either. You are being way too conservative. It fit in my apartment, it will fit in yours.

Big doesn't have to cost more. I want you to know that you can buy a big and beautiful 60 inch LG 60PS80 at Fry's this weekend for a meager $1499 bucks (before tax). That is an outrageous deal. It is possibly the best deal on an HDTV that I have ever seen. I turned green with mental illness over the thought that I laid down twice the bucks for an LED LCD Luxia UN55B7000. I fucked up, plain and simple. I fucked up. It should be noted that at half the price, this LG has no sign of motion blur and jutter, two forces that often spoil my enjoyment of NFL football. What do the critics say about this TV? They complain about less than absolute black levels. Once again the black fetish shows itself.

I want to ask the black fetish critics a series of questions:

1. Why is black the only color you care about?
2. If black level is important, it stands to reason that white point would be equally important. Why do you never discuss the luminosity of the white point?
3. Why do you never speak of Red level?
4. Why do you never speak of Green level?
5. Why do you never speak of Blue level?
6. Why do you fetishize black

Before you answer, understand this: I have already heard and read all the arguments about the importance of black levels. You are answering for the general public. They need to hear your feeble case. I get it. Believe me, I totally get it, and I think it is completely stupid fetish to obsess about. There is no argument you can spin that can justify the quantity of HTML byte space you have squandered writing about this subject.

The LG 60PS80 is an absolutely fantastic HDTV. If you don't have an HDTV, run right out and buy this unit. You will thank me. You will love the hell out of it.

So California just banned power hungry HDTVs?

It would appear that our famous California Energy Commission has placed new & sharp limits on HDTV power consumption. These rules go into effect in 2011, so the change is not eminent. The rules govern power consumption for all HDTVs 58 inches and smaller. The new rules specify hard caps for how much wattage an HDTV at any given size can consume. For instance, in the year 2011, 42 inch HDTVs cannot exceed 183 watts. In 2013, 42s will be cut down lower to 116 watts.

What is the impact of this supra-legislative action? About 75% of all HDTVs currently on the market will meet the 2011 requirements. That is an easy jump. Only about 21% of the 1,400 known HDTV models will be vendible in 2013. About 300 of our current HDTVs will be able to remain on the market about 4 years from now.

The industry's response was to scream. They declared that this action would force the industry to cut image quality and features. Oh really? Some of your best quality models actually meet the current spec. For instance, my 55inch Luxia 7000 meets the spec. My intended, the LaserVue, would not be impacted at all by this spec. Even the power-hog 60 inch Panasonic Kuro would be vendible in 2013. By all accounts, these three HDTVs belong at the top of the heap in terms of quality.

So what in the devil are the HDTV vendors crying about? Let us do a more logical and rational assessment of the situation.

1. If you want to make a smaller HDTV (smaller than 58 inches) you better make sure that it is based on the very latest efficient technology.
2. This will raise the price.
3. You better make sure it is not bloated with stupid features, such as an integrated DVD player.
4. This will lower the price, and produce more focused products.
5. Both facts will enhance the quality of the HDTV, not reduce it.
6. Old stock will have to liquidated at any price necessary to clear it.
7. This would put smaller and worse quality technology in the hands of precisely the people who can least afford to foot the power bill: The poor!
8. The poor will gladly buy these liquidation units anyway, completely oblivious of the cost of ownership
9. You can make the case that this is rational policy, as it has several coherent effects. It forces bad stock off the market. It makes future stock better. This helps both the poor and the middle class. It prevents Cali from needing to build more power infrastructure. It will allow the rich to continue doing anything they like.
10. That is how you define a rational policy in governmental terms.

So why are HDTV companies crying? Nobody likes supra-legislative bodies. Nobody likes it when an unelected group steps hard on your neck. There are a lot of lame and crappy HDTVs that will be flat-cold killed by this action. Low-power features such as LED back-lighting will have to become the norm. Older and inferior tech will be killed outright.

Basically, the industry doesn't like the fact that they will have to kill (early in their minds) a series of low cost HDTVs that they think are perfectly fine machines. They don't like the fact that they will have to clear them from the market during 2010, and probably at painfully low prices. They don't like the fact that they won't be allowed to bilk old architecture for a bit more profit in the low-end market. All of this adds up to lower margins or higher prices or both for the next several years.

One technology is going to get hit hard by these changes: Plasma. One company in particular has much to loose: Panasonic. Although Panasonic has made strides in reducing Plasma power consumption over the past two years, Plasma still consumes a lot more wattage than LaserVue or LED LCD.

So here is how we would expect this legislation to play out.

1. LCD vendors will have to complete the transition to LED back lighting, and limit stupid features. Old stock will have to be purged soon. Expect fire sales soon.
2. DLP & Laser vendors can keep on doing whatever the hell they want, as long as it is bigger than 58 inches. Since both are pretty power efficient, I would not expect 56 inch models to be harmed by this move.
3. Plasma is going to get hammered. Expect small plasmas to disappear from the market. Expect plasma to get larger than 58 inches.

If I were to evaluate this as a partisan fan of DLP and LaserVue, I would be pleased. This move will place the two competitor technologies under great stress. It will leave DLP and LaserVue alone. Eventually, it will flush Plasma in our direction (really big screens), but this will not be soon.

On the merits of Internet on your HDTV

So, I just read a post in a forum which lit my fuse. I am sitting her shaking my head and chuckling right now. What was it?

A couple of guys were extremely excited about the new line up of XVT (Extreme Vizio Technology) LCDs from Vizo. Essentially, Vizio has joined the 240hz LCD and the LED LCD in one fell swoop. That is a lot of abbreviations. If you follow HDTV technology, you know what I am talking about.

One joker counseled the other joker not to buy one of these XVTs until later in the year when the 2.0 revision comes out. Why? Because the 2.0 revision will have Vizio apps, and you really want to buy the one with Vizio apps! You just don't want to get stuck with an HDTV without Internet apps.

Oh Jesus... What do you say to a statement like this?

Well, first let me re-iterate the fact that I am a career programmer. I have just about 15 years of profession experience. I have about 12 years of amateur experience before that. I am 42 going hard on 43. I have been using computers since I was 15 years old. I know a little something something about this subject of applications and the Internet.

In my 27 years of computer experience, I have seldom seen such a worthless idea as Internet applications on an HDTV. Samsung uses the Yahoo! widgets. I have these on my current Luxia 7000. They are as worthless as tits on a bull. I have played around with the whole Viera-Cast system on the Panasonic Plasmas, and I am not particularly impressed. It reminds me a bit of the old PointCast system I used to enjoy a long time ago (1996) but it is not nearly as content-rich or fresh. I have not used the Vizio system yet. I am sure it will be inferior to that of the Viera. It might even be worse than the Samsung Yahoo widgets.

In short, he who pays extra for Internet apps is an absolute fool. He who thinks Internet apps are a decisive reason to buy, sell, or trade HDTVs is a fool. He who holds on a purchase to pay more for Internet apps later is a fucking fool. Don't think for one second that the Internet content is compelling or useful in any way, shape, or form. It is not. You will look at it once, and you will quickly forget about it. You will never feel compelled to use the technology again. Internet apps on HDTVs have no merit at all. It is twaddle.

This is just rubbished tacked on to the package to try to make the product seem more advanced and compelling. It looks good on the brochure. Only this and nothing more.

With all that said, I think XVT is an exciting entry into the market. I would not buy it. I am returning to DLP land soon. However, it should make a nice point of entry for some folks who are both financially and space-restricted in their purchase options. Get one and enjoy if you are in this category.

Bye Bye Pioneer

The HDTV illuminati are disconsolate and drowning in tears. They are going to lay down and cry for a hundred years.

This week, we confirmed that Pioneer is exiting the HDTV business entirely. They aren't just dropping their famous Kuro Plasma line. They are getting out of the business of HDTVs. No Lasers. No LCDs. No DLPs. Nothing. Pioneer is out.

This brought howls of dismay from the HDTV critics, who have routinely showered Kuro with every award and superlative they could muster. The basic line goes like this “It is sad that customers won't pay for the superior quality of Pioneer. This shows that there is a race to the bottom as vendors try to cut cost in this era of economic crisis.”

Well, that is pretty nice bullshit, but bullshit none the less. Let me set the record straight: Pioneer isn't quiting because people are too stupid to recognize quality when they see it, or too cheap to pay for it when they see it. Nope. That ain't the reason at all. Pioneer got run out of the plasma market by Panasonic. Panasonic beat the hell out of them. Panasonic simply made bigger, cheaper and better looking plasma screens that Pioneer. I am talking about better image quality and better styling at the same time. Pioneer could not compete with Panasonic, and they knew it, so they quit.

As long as Panasonic is around, there simply is no reason for any rational consumer to spend $6000 on a 60 inch Kuro 151FD. You could have a 65 inch PZ850U for about $4500 instead. Plasma consumers opted for the latter in 2008. Pioneer was awash in red ink.

As I have said several times in this blog: The Kuro isn't what it is cracked up to be. It is a strong performer, but quite overrated. Certainly not the best HDTV money can buy. There was certainly a cult of Kuro during its existence, but having a cult following does not prove superiority. Plan 9 From Outer Space has a cult following. It is far from the greatest film ever made.

I don't know why, but experts get locked in an Ivory Tower echo chamber sometimes. They seem to be lemmings with herding instincts. Each year in the NFL draft, the critics get hot for some prospect who surely turns into a bust. They overlook good kids who turn into all-pros. Joe Montana was drafted in the 3rd round. Kurt Warner wasn't drafted at all. So it is with movies and so it is with HDTVs. Tim Couch and David Carr were both selected #1 overall. The NFL (regretably) showed these two to be failures. Likewise, the market has rendered its verdict on Pioneer's Kuro: Kuro is a non-viable product. This means the evaluators were wrong in their initial assessments.

Some perfectly marvelous HDTVs get mediocre reviews—or no coverage at all—just because there isn't strong mind share behind them. I don't believe HDTV critics have a real scientific methodology, despite their attempts to cloak reviews in the shroud of Science. Speaking of the Pseudo Science of HDTV reviews, let's debunk that bullshit right here and now.

There is a standard called ITU BT.709. It is sometimes mistakenly called Rec.709 by the TV critics. BT.709 is an International Telecommunications Union standard. This standard defines the pixel count, pixel depth, frame rates, and color space of HDTV. The standard can be found here. It is a digital electronics standard just like any other digital electronics standard. It was formed in the same way that all standards are formed.

Now, I happen to know something about digital electronics standards. I am a programmer with more than 14 years of professional experience and about 27 years of total experience. I have to deal with ANSI, ECMA and ISO all the fucking time. I know how these standards get formed. A number of experts are drawn from major industry firms. These experts are gathered together somewhere in the world for a conference. They are sequestered in a room once or twice. You usually have just two physical meetings. The rest of the time, the experts collaborate online for about a year or two. They vote many times by email or webform. In the end, they publish a massive document which few people ever read. This document defines the industry.

What is important about this story is that it is a messy political process, dominated by industry titans with a commercial agenda. There may be one or two technology purists on the team, but any standard SIG is comprised mostly of pragmatic business-minded men... And they are always men.

BT.709 was formed by a number experts from the largest TV firms in the world. They negotiated a product which they felt they could manufacture and sell at a reasonable profit. That was the goal. Just as surely as the first ECMA standard for C# did not define a perfect or complete language, the ITU standard for HDTV did not define the philosophically perfect spec for HDTV. They are nowhere near the logical limit of visual quality in BT.709.

BT.709 is just one conclusion among many possibilities. It is just one compromise solution which got enough votes to pass out of the standards committee. It is the spec we have. It is the spec we work with, but it isn't perfect, I can assure you of this.

In the case of any standard, there are always weaknesses. There are always obvious points where you can go above and beyond the spec and achieve much better results. Exceeding the spec is no sin. Computer firms do it all the time, with delightful results. God, where in the world would we be if NVIDIA and ATI hadn't pushed way beyond the spec for VGA and SVGA?

Whenever I read reviews of the Kuro the critics always seem to propound the fidelity of the Kuro to the BT.709 standard. Repeatedly, they state that the Kuro is the only HDTV to nail the spec perfectly. Repeatedly, they chastise inferior HDTVs for failing to hit the spec. Repeatedly, they critique better HDTVs for exceeding the spec. Mitsubishi has been criticized many times for exceeding the spec.

I can understand why you chastise HDTVs which fail on the low side. This is justified. I do not agree with criticizing firms who exceed the spec on the high side. Unless you believe BT.709 is the perfect and logical limit of video quality, firms should try to exceed BT.709. This is no sin. To characterize it as a sin is just flat cold wrong. Rather, it is progressive improvement.

Ergo the cult of Kuro is simply predicated on bad ideology. That is all. Only this and nothing more. Kuro has been crowed the king by those who hold fast to this faulty ideology. There is no need to take them seriously. Their lamentations are a tale told by an idiot full or sound and fury signifying nothing.

If you happen to be one of these poor players, strutting and fretting upon the stage, only to be heard no more, I have some good news for you. It goes like this.

HDTV is a field strongly allied to the semiconductor industry. HDTV is an example of digital science and engineering. As such, it is subject to Alan Moore's law. Moore's law basically says that we double the density of transistors on any given dice size every 18 months. This means we basically double to power and sophistication of our digital electronics products every 18 months.

If you are upset that Kuro is gone, just wait 18 months. In 18 months Vizio and Phillips will be making flat pannels superior to the current Pioneer Elite Kuro Pro 151FD.

So, whatever happened to my NEW HDTV?

I haven't bought it yet, that's what happened. Why? Essentially, my Dad is having financial trouble due to the close of his Restaurant. He wanted to back out of the deal. This suited me just fine, because--as it turns out--I was having a little financial problem of my own.

It turns out that HSBC turned me down for the Mitsubishi Diamond Credit program. They gave no specific reason for doing so. They simply stated that they had consulted Transunion before making their decision. I happen to subscribe to TrueCredit.com, a service provided by Transunion. Everything is fine there. I don't have a long and deep credit history including three car loans, and two mortgages, but what I do have is pretty good. My Transunion FICO is resting at 708 right now. That ain't bad. I am shocked that HSBC would turn down a 708 FICO for a TV loan... but then again I am not.

I just blogged recently about HSBC going into crisis. [Consult The Great Depression II.] I just want it to be understood that this is their fault, not mine. In an ordinary environment, they would have lent me the money. As we all know, this ain't no normal or ordinary banking environment.

There is a certain Korean car vendor I know [he also owns my apartment building and lives here] who was deeply dismayed when he heard my report on this matter. He claimed that no FICO above 700 ever drove away from his car lot without financing on a brand new car... At least prior to this mess. He has seen many cases like this lately. It is killing his business. He was hoping for news that the credit freeze was thawing. I brought news of continued winter weather.

Regardless, I am going to buy a new HDTV as soon as I can find a buyer for my current HDTV. I have more or less decided to buy a Mitsubishi DiamondScan WD-73835. This will give me an extra foot of screen, a 120Hz refresh rate, and 3d movies. I think this is the best value on the market. I would like more time to pay for it and lower interest, but I will do it anyway.