Dave versus the Coin-Toss, Update 1

So the slate of games just ended for the day.  My record with one game left to play is 9-3, or 75%.  My trusty quarter didn't do very well.  The coin's record is 5-7, or 41.66%.  My victory over the coin is mathematically assured, regardless of what happens tomorrow night.

I am glad I am able to say--without boasting--that I am substantially more accurate than a random coin toss.

2011 NFL Season Week 11 Predictions

It's pretty easy slate of choices in week #11.  There is some room for disagreement here, mostly with the small potatoes.  We have only one marque match-up between contenders this week:  Bengals @ Ravens.  Every other game is either a small fry match-up or a mis-match.

1. Raiders @ Vikings is basically a mis-match.  If Carson Palmer shoots a QBR of 152.6 in the first half of this game, the competitive phase will be over quickly.  This game might be close, but I think the Raiders have every advantage except homefield.
2. Bills @ Dolphins is a real head-ache.  The Bills are now officially in a tailspin after getting humiliated in Dallas.  I still don't feel confident in picking the Dolphins because of Sparano's situation there.  I also feel that the Bills have better talent.  They say you never bet against the streak, and the Bills are on a losing streak.  However, there comes a time when all streaks end.  I take the Bills.
3. Jags @ Brows is another major headache.  This is a small-fry match-up.  I find it difficult to pick the Browns after the way they lost ugly to my Rams, who won even uglier.  Still, the Browns have homefield and the Jags are nothing to write home about.  You have to hold your nose and pick one of them.  I take the Browns.
4. Bengals @ Ravens is the key match of the week.  This is the game we will all be watching.  The Ravens are inconsistent, and the Bengals are young.  Both teams are very good, but I think the veteran Ravens are much more talented.  The Raven offense is struggling, and the Bengal defense is good.  The Bengal offense is going to either miss A.J. Green or deal with a hobbled A.J..  This isn't good when you face the Raven defense.  The Bengals can win this game, but percentage-wise, I think the Ravens are more likely.
5. Panthers @ Lions is another headache galore.  The Lions are talented but slumping, and their QB has a busted finger on his passing hand.  Super-Cam has made the Panthers competitive in most games.  What happens here?  I think the Lions get up off the carpet and re-assert themselves.  Still this verdict is hard to justify when their QB has a busted finger and nobody to carry the mail for him.
6. Bucs @ Packers looks like a serious mismatch.  They say you never bet against the streak, but there comes a time when all streaks end.  I remember a time, not so long ago, when a very similar Viking team visited Tampa Bay with a 9-0 record.  The Vikings had a high-powered offense and a leaky defense.  They had a QB playing MVP caliber football.  The Bucs snapped that streak.  This time it is a little bit different.   I think the Packers will go 10-0
7. Cowboys @ Redskins also looks like a mismatch.  The Cowboys already won the first match at a time when the Redskins were playing much higher quality football.  Further, the Cowboys are surging now that Tony Romo has a little bit of time to throw the football.  The Redskins' offense looks like a basket case.  I just don't think the 'skins can score enough to win.  I take the Cowboys.
8. Cardinals @ 49ers...  This is a mismatch and the 49ers have homefield.  Forget about it.
9. Seahawks @ Rams... Awe those pesky Seahawks!  They have no shot at the playoffs or doing anything at all, but they are intent upon upsetting people, especially their fans who wish they were in a position to draft Andrew Luck.  No such Luck.  Matches between tomato cans are more difficult to pick than match ups between high-caliber teams.  Inconsistency is the key to pick'em difficulty.  I am going to roll with my Rams, our home-field advantage our better QB, our better RB, and our singular receiver.  Our defense is much-maligned, but the criticism is overstated.  If the offense could have stayed on the field for more than 3 downs during the first 5-6 games of the season, our defense would be ranked much higher.
10. Titans @ Falcons... oh those pesky Titans!  They are a rebuilding franchise and they don't want to admit it.  Although they are 5-4, and equal to the Falcons in record, I honestly don't believe these Titans have a significant shot at the post-season.  I do expect the Texans to fall-forward and take the single playoff spot from the AFC South.  On the other hand, the Falcons remain a contender for a playoff birth, and I think they are a much more talented team.  I'm taking the Falcons... and they better not let me down, or I'll fly to Atlanta and whup...
11. Chargers @ Bears might be the game that costs Nov Turner his job as head coach.  They say never bet against the streak.  Philip Rivers is on a big-interception streak, and so to are Bears.  The Bears defense is ball-hawking like crazy and the Chargers are very accommodating in this regard.  This spells doom for the Chargers if you ask me.
12. Eagles @ Giants is unlikely to be one for the ages.  The NFL Network has been doing it's utmost to remind us of some of the historically great matches between these two teams, but this just won't be one of them.  The Eagle D is struggling like hell, and now their offense will be minus Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin.  Forget about it!  The Giants will probably come out foaming at the mouth after losing to the 49ers.  I think the Eagles will take a butt-whooping here.  They can take it any which way they want to take it, but they are going to take it.
13. Chiefs @ Patriots:  I concur with Tom Waddles' statement about this game.  This is like Mike Tyson well out of his prime facing Butter Bean. 'Nuff said.  

Week 10 results, Week 11 Predictions

I had a terrible week last week. The worst ever at 6-7. If had posted early, it would have been 7-7, but that is nothing special.

I was going to give you a prediction on the Bears v Dolphins, but it is far too late in the day for that. We're getting to the end of the 3rd quarter, so it's way too late for a prediction. No bets are accepted after kick-off.

The Ravens v Panthers is a massacre already. The Vikings are a sinking dragon ship. I'll take the Packers. The Texans are in a free-fall. I'll take the Jets. The Bills v Bengals is one of those maddening choices where two turds are bumping into each other at the bottom of the toilet bowl. I'll take the Bengals.

The Browns v Jaguars actually constitutes an intriguing matchup. The Jags are one of the most unpredictable and inconsistent teams around. They are not very talented, but they have good key players in Jones-Drew and Garrard. On any given Sunday, they are an upset threat. The problem is that they are mostly moribund; they are stagnant in a mediocre position. They don't get better, they don't get worse. The Browns, on the other hand, are an exciting young team on the rise. I like 'em. I believe they have a bright future ahead of them. Next year, they should contend. I'm taking the Browns.

The Redskins v Titans is another matchup of wanna-be contenders who aren't. The Skins' defense is categorically broken. It was a solid defense last season. In his most foolish decision ever, Mike Shanahan fires his defensive coordinator, and changes the defense to a 3-4, just because he likes it better. Stupid, very stupid. Their 59-point flame out at the hands of the Eagles was a direct consequence of this stupid decision. Worse, I think the Eagles handed a very nice Blueprint for victory to the Titans. Certainly, Vince Young can run and throw deep. Certainly, Randy Moss has a lot of speed and can stretch the field. I expect the Titans to pile-on the misery for Washington. It may not be 59-28, but it should be 38-10.

Cowboys and Lions should prove interesting. The Cowboys seem resurgent, but they have no Romo. The Lions are young, good, and hungry, but they have no Stafford. Neither team has its starting QB. Both are in heaps of trouble. Ultimately, I expect the Cowboys to win this, but it should prove interesting.

Steelers v Raiders is formerly classic match, that died completely, and is now becoming somewhat interesting again. This is a strange one for several reasons. The Raiders & Steelers met last year and should not play each other for a minimum of 2 years. Further they met in Pittsburgh last year, meaning the game should be in Oakland this year. Once again, somebody at NFL HQ is smoking Sherms and experiencing intense brain damage. This happened before in the Rams v Redskins series 2008 & 2009. The game itself is hard to handicap because the Steelers are struggling now that Ben Roethlisberger is back at the helm, and the Raiders are actually leading the AFC West right now. I think the Steelers are not what they are cracked up to be, but you don't want to play them in Pittsburgh after a humiliating loss the Patriots

One of the several reasons the Rams' loss to the 49ers stunk is that it pretty well blew our chances finish at .500. We are now below .500 and facing our toughest opponent in the Falcons. Winning our first road game last week would have compensated for our {highly probable} loss to the Falcons this. It is now very likely that we will go 2 games below .500 at 4-6. The Rams play best at home. It's plausible to suggest that this just might be a trap game for the Falcons. With that said, I believe the Rams' chances of winning are remote. At this stage it is very reasonable to suggest that the Falcons will be the 2010-2011 NFC Champs. We gave the future champs pure-hell in 2009, but we still lost that game. Even if this is a trap for the Falcons, and even if we given them pure hell for four quarters, it is still likely that they will pull it out in the end. Further, our Rams are having problems with OL injuries and pass protection again. I hope I turn out wrong, but I cannot rationally pick the Rams, in this game, at this point.

Of course, the big game 'everybody is looking forward too' is the Patriots and Colts. They seem to play each other every single season, regardless of the fact that this is a flagrant violation of division scheduling rules. You don't think this might be a money thing, do you? I don't think this year's edition of the rivalry is that important. I wouldn't put money on either team's chances of visiting the Super Bowl in Feb 2011. The Colts are an indoor turf team. They are not the same team in cold weather and on grass. The Patriots' home field is an advantage in this case. For this reason, I make the Patriots a one point favorite... but just barely.

Finally, we have the Giants and Eagles. I like the Giants a lot. I would expect them to rebound hard from the loss last week. I still like their chances of reaching the Super Bowl. However, they are going to have problems out-scoring the Eagles in this game. In my estimation, this is the closest game on the entire board; even tighter than the Colts and Patriots. This game can go either way. I want to say pick'em, but I will favor the Eagles due to the Giants' OL injury problems.