So Las Vegas is running away with the Colts?

So, shortly after the NFC Championship game finished up in New Orleans, I heard reports that the Colts had been selected by Vegas as the favorite in SB44. I was mildly surprised. I would have expected them to go the other way. It would appear that a lot of gamblers jumped on the Colts' ship immediately, because the point-spread increased 2 points.

Let me give you a wise piece of betting advice. Take the Saints and the points. You can't go wrong. Either the Saints will win out-right, or the Colts won't cover the spread. Either way, you win money.

Why is Vegas making his mistake? Maybe they are not making a mistake. The system of favorites and point spread is designed to attract roughly equal quantities of money to both sides of the equation. In this way, the house always wins. It is not important for Vegas to correctly pick the winner. It is important for Vegas to manipulate the numbers to maximize profits. Vegas wasn't built on winners. Vegas was built on loosers. If they lead you to believe that the Colts will win when they are about to lose, Vegas wins.

If you think the Colts are going to scarper off easily with the title, your on drugs. If all goes according to plan, this is going to be an ultra-shootout. The last team to hold the football wins. The common logic says that these are two offensive juggernaughts. But are they really both offensive juggernauts? Let me tell you a few things you might not know.

1. The Saints are #1 in the NFL in total yardage with 403.8 yards per game.
2. The Saints are #1 in the NFL in total points with 32.9 per game 510 total.
3. The Colts are #9 in the NFL in total yardage with 363.1 per game
4. The Colts are #7 in the NFL in total points with 26 per game and 416 total.

Clearly, the Saints have the offensive advantage. #1 is a Juggernaught. #7 is not. The Saints offense is almost 7 points per game better than the Colts offense. That is not equal, especially when you are talking about high scoring teams. What about defense?

1. The Saints are #20 in the NFL in Defensive yardage per game with 341 per game.
2. The Saints are #13 in the NFL in Defensive points allowed with 21.3 per game
3. The Colts are #15 in the NFL in Defensive yardage per game with 339.2 per game
4. The Colts are #8 in the NFL in Defensive points allowed with 19.2 per game

The way I see it, the Saints offensive advantage is larger than the Colts defensive advantage. Colt defense is basically 2 points & 2 yards better per game than the Saints defense. That is pretty equal.

So if the Colts defense is 2 points better than the Saints, and the Saint offense is 7 points better than the Colts: the Saints win by 5 points. Add & deduct; you'll come out with the same figure. I would suspect it will be closer than that. A last second field goal will make the difference.

So why favor the Colts? I have only heard two answers for to this question:

1. The AFC defeated the NFC 37-27 this season
2. Peyton Manning plays for the Colts.

Don't read much into the AFC/NFC thing. This is only true because the worst teams in the NFL are concentrated in the NFC. The Saints were 4-0 vs the AFC. They were not subject to this statistical rule. If you want to bet on the Colts because of Peyton Manning, you have taken a reasonable stance. I do not object.

Shortly after the NFC Championship game, Prime Time and the Playmaker were giggling to themselves about the pending Super Bowl. Prime declared that Reggie Wayne would run wild against the Saints Secondary, but it would make no difference. The Saints would kill the Colts.

Now wouldn't it be nice for Vegas if it worked out that way? You install the Colts as the favorite, a lot of people bet that way, and the Saints win. Vegas cleans up.

I don't think I would go so far as to say the Saints will kill the Colts, but I do believe the Saints have to be favored to win... Presuming you are not a Vegas bookie. I think they are the stronger of two very equitable opponents. I have a ton of respect for both of these opponents. We have the two very best teams in the NFL slapping iron. This is the best possible matchup. It should be fantastic and high scoring shootout.

Quick note about the Packers

Just a quick thought or two about the Packers before I get underway this evening. Those who read this blog will know that I picked the Packers vs. Saints as the NFC championship game after the 4 preseason games. I also picked the Colts vs. Dolphins in the AFC championship at the same time. These looked like the 4 most outstanding teams to me in the 1st quarters of those 4 preason games.

Most would say that picking the two undefeated teams that early on is pretty good football prognosticating. They would have forgiven me for those other two picks, which didn't look so good a few weeks ago.

Lo-and-behold! Guess who is coming on strong all of a sudden?!?! The Packers are getting pretty hot as Green Bay is getting pretty cold. Did you hear what Steve Young had to say about these guys? He believes that Aaron Rogers is close to being the best QB in the league, and (of course) the Pack has the #1 yardage defense in the league. As Young correctly pointed out, this is spells serious trouble for Packer opponents in the playoffs. A highly efficient QB coupled with a powerful defense usually spells victory in the playoffs. Young believes that the Packers can cause some serious damage if they can only lock down a wildcard birth.

Some would dismiss Young as cheering for Rogers, a kid who is on very parallel path to the one Young suffered in his pro-career. Most of the guys on MNF and ESPN did not dismiss this analysis. Neither do I. Rogers is what is cracked up to be. The Packers' defense is getting stronger and stronger.

Now wouldn't it be something if those Packers just happened to get through to the NFC Championship game in the Super Dome against the Saints? Calling 3 out of the final 4 is pretty damn good football prognosticating.

Saints vs Giants 2009

The Saints 48-27 massacre of the Giants is the biggest shock of a weekend that had several. Take it from a big Saints booster, a guy who has been on the bandwaggon since pre-season: This result was vastly better than anything I expected.

I believed that the Saints would could and should win this game, but I was expecting a much tighter affair. I thought 34-31 sounded about right. 5 or 7 lead changes were on my mind. Also, there was always the prospect that the Giants might win.

No such thing happened. The Saints jumped all over the Giants like a jailhouse rapist going to work on new meat in the shower. They had 34 points on the score board before halftime. They could have scored more than 48 if they had wanted to.

At the Half, Drew Brees had an official QB rating of 157.7. That is an outrageous Kurt Warner like figure. Did I mention that the Giants had the #1 ranked defense in the NFL? How do you wrack at 157.7 against the top defense in the NFL? There is no doubt that Drew Brees must be considered the other favorite to win MVP, right beside Payton Manning. Frankly. Payton has had so many, I would really like to see Drew get this one.

This was the kind of game that has to make everyone say "Oh my GAWD! It's the greatest show on turf Mach II!" Drew Brees threw into the #1 ranked defense with impunity. He took what he wanted when he wanted. They couldn't stop him. They couldn't pressure him. They couldn't lay a glove on him. The Saint offense busted up the #1 ranked defense in the NFL like a rhino running through wet toilet paper.

But this is only half the story. You see, the Giants have an All-Pro Quarterback and a powerful offense also. The Saint defense utterly shut them down. Eli had a very bad day, despite a pretty strong effort. The Saints were blitzing all around him, crashing him from the blind side, then knocking out his right tackle. It was damn ugly if you were a Giant fan.

No offense is intended to the Giant fans. I still have a hell of a lot of respect for the Giants. I still think they are the overwhelming favorite to win the East, and I still think they can be the #2 seed in the NFC. However, there is no doubt that they were sleep walking today. The team truly believed it arrived with the thrashing they put on the Raiders last week. That was a mistaken thought. As Chuck Noll used to say, "You never arrive."

I wouldn't be surprised to hear Drew Brees say "Playing against the Giants was like playing a scrimmage" after a game like that, but you know Drew is not that kind of a guy.

The amazing thing is that Head Coach Sean Payton immediately commented on the areas of the game where the Saints need a tune up. We all knew he was right. As overwhelming a performance as this was by the Saints, it was not perfect. This team has not yet peaked. It can absolutely get better, and there are some obvious ways in which this is true.

The rest of the NFL should be filled with dread, fear & trembling. The Saints are playing lights-out football, and they are going to get better.

So who can oppose them? You may think I am crazy, but I have a very short list of names on that list:

1. The Colts.
2. The Falcons
3. The Cardinals

We'll see if the Bears can continue to improve. I see signs of weakness in the Vikings, but we will talk about that in another blog.

Right now, I think we have to start looking forward to a show down between the Saints and the Colts in Miami. What a collision of offensive super-powers that would be?!?!?