Sam Bradford's 2010 season; the over/under number is 3

Las Vegas is not yet taking over/under action on Sam Bradford, but they should be. The over/under number should be 3. Three is a magic number, yes it is.

1. With what pick will Sam Bradford be selected in the 2010 draft? The over/under number is 3.
2. The week of the 2010 season where Sam Bradford gets his first NFL start: The over/under number is 3.
3. The number NFL starts before Sam Bradford suffers a season ending injury? The over/under number is 3.
4. The number of touchdown passes Sam Bradford throws before his season ending injury in 2010? The over/under number is 3.
5. The number of sacks Sam Bradford will suffer before taking his season ending injury? The over/under number is 3.

Those should be your 5 magic over/under bets on Sam Bradford, oh ye Las Vegas lines. How would I be them?

1. Under: Whether he is taken by the Rams or the Browns, Bradford will probably be the top pick.
2. Under: The Rams will throw Sam in the shark tank immediately. The Browns will start Del Homme twice and after 14 turnovers, Sam goes in.
3. Under: If the Rams select Bradford, he's going to have a tough time making it to week 3 before suffering his season ending injury in 2010. If the Browns take him, he'll have a tough time making it to week 5 before the Steelers or Ravens kill him.
4. Under: If the Rams select Bradford, he's going to have to find a little target named Donnie Avery for legit TD passes. It will be hard to squeeze off 3 of those before Sam suffers his season ending injury of 2010.
5. Over: I think Sam will be sacked more than 3 times before suffering his season ending injury of 2010. This is true regardless of whether the Rams or Browns select him.

It sucks to be Sam. I feel bad for you man. The stars are poorly configured for your near-term future. I wish you the best. I hope I am wrong. I hope you turn out to be the A.P. Offensive Rookie of the year, but I certainly cannot bet on it.

Let's reason about significance of Vegas for just moment

I happen to know a lot of betting men at work and through friends. They, like most others, have been swept up in the hoopla about the Colts during this past week. They have contributed towards that strange figure everybody is talking about: 68.5% of all SB44 betting money has been placed on the Colts.

I am proud to say that I have deeply troubled these betting men with my assessment of two great computer simulations of the game.

1. The EA sports Madden 2010 simulation which picks the Saints to win 35-31
2. The PredictionMachine.com simulation which says that there is a 79.4% chance that the Colts will not cover the 4.5 point spread. {Remember, the Colts have to win by 5 or more points, or you loose money.}
   

What ever in the world do these two points mean? First, let's recognize the most obvious fact: If Colts should happen to win by 5 or 6 points, there will be a financial bloodbath in Las Vegas. 68.5% of the betting shares will have to be paid out. This is at a time when Vegas is deeply injured by recession.

Fortunately for Vegas, the odds of a financial Bloodbath are very low. According to the most Colt-friendly computer projections, there is a 79.4% chance that that Colts will not cover the spread. Let's not forget that the Madden 2010 simulation picks the Saints to win straight up.

Just to refresh you memory a bit, PredictionMachine.com stated that the Colts won only approximately 51% of the matches in their 50,000 match series. The Saints won approximately 49% of the time. Less than 1 point per game differentiated these two teams, when all scores were averaged. In 60% of their simulated victories, the Colts failed to cover the spread of 4.5 points. I remind you that this is the most Colt-friendly interpretation of the performance data you will find.

The correct interpretation of this data is as follows: This is an unbelievably tight match up of equally great, and similar, football teams. There is a razor thin difference between them. This match could go either way, depending on the breaks. The odds of a laugh-in or a blow-out are extremely low. There are really only two ways we can see a blow-out in this game:

1. Serious injuries would have to be sustained early by one side.
2. One side would have to come out and lay an egg, really stinking up the joint with serious errors.

Most experts and the software do not predict either event. PredictionMachine.com says that there is a 90% chance that the Colts won't win by 14. It also says that there is a 90% chance that the Saints won't win by 14. Remember, there is only a 20.6% chance that Colts can even cover the spread.

Vegas knows this. Vegas has intentionally set the spread so that they have an overwhelming (at least 79.4%) chance of collecting that 68.5% of betting money that went down on the Colts. They are in this business to make money, not to lose money. It does not pay Vegas to pick the winner. Vegas wins when you lose. The spread has been set to pretty well ensure you will lose your bet on the Colts. Vegas wasn't built on winners. Vegas was built on losers.

With that said, it should be noted that former Colts coach Tony Dungy has stated publicly that he does not believe SB44 will be close. He says it will be a snoozer with the Colts winning by 2 TDs. The Colts will hold the lead all game long.

When asked why he thinks that, Dungy states that Vikings laid an egg with 7 turnovers, and the Saints still only won the game by a field goal in overtime. The Colts will not turn over the football 7 times. The Colts, on the other hand, wasted the most powerful defense in the league. Ergo the Colts deserve to be there and the Saints don't?

You'll pardon me for saying so, but this is the purest example of human bias I have ever seen. Not only does his paternal pride show through, but he hyper-extends just one point of data when are 17 others to consider for each team. There is a way to hyper-extend one point of data such that you break your neck and your back. This is what human biases do to you. Don't buy off on it.

Why I am not concerned about the Championship games and their outcomes? I'll tell you why:

1. The Jets sustained serious injuries in their secondary during the course of the AFC champions game. This is why their coverage broke down, and they were forced to stop blitzing.
2. The Jets may have been the #1 defense in the league this season, but that isn't saying a whole lot. There was no legendary defense in the NFL during 2009. The Jets' defensive statistics do not compare favorably with those of the great defenses of the past.
3. We knew the Jets did not have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Colts.
4. The Saints began to play in a very odd, and conservative manner once the Vikings began to turn over the football. It is as if their confidence rose to a point where they did not feel they needed to be aggressive or take risks. They were confident that the Vikings were self-destructing. They took it easy, presuming the win was in the basket. This resulted in a much closer match than I expected.
   
5. I expect to see the same Saint team we saw against Arizona. This is a Saint team that is greatly concerned about the scoring prowess of their rival. I expect the Saint offense to swing for the fences and attack ruthlessly all game long. They know they are going to have to outscore the Colts in a scoring match. Even if the Colts begin to drop the ball, I expect the Saints to attack viciously and relentlessly.
   

So there you have it. If you took the Colts and the points, you are a stupid sucker. The most likely outcome of this game is that the last team to have possession of the football will probably win by a last-second field goal in regulation. This scenario cannot result in the spread being covered.

The Hangover

It wasn't terrible, but it wasn't terribly funny either.

The Hangover is essentially the latest stoner comedy about a very lost weekend in Las Vegas. An odd group of buddies (and the future brother-in-law) accompany the groom to be on his bachelor party trip to Las Vegas. The last stop before death... errr... marriage.

It turns out that the future brother in law wanted everybody to have a good time, so he went out purchased a bunch of MDNA, otherwise known as XTacy. He spiked everybody's drink with the stuff. The problem was he bough the shit from a dumb ass drug dealer who didn't know the difference between MDNA and Rohypnol. Rohypnol, also known as Ruffies, is commonly called the date rape drug.

After a large Rohypnol toast on the roof of their Hotel in Vegas, the screen goes black. When the camera focuses again, it is now the morning after. The hotel room is destroyed. The couch has been set on fire and is still smouldering, there is a tiger in the bathroom. Their are hookers walking out of the hotel room. There is a baby in the closet. Dough, the Groom, is now missing and cannot be found. The boys have a LVPD car in their parking place at the hotel, and the valet brings them the keys.

Nobody knows what the hell happened. The Ruffies have destroyed any memory of the night before. The rest of the movie is a quest to find the missing Groom. It is a detective comedy. They have to find out what the hell happened to them so they can figure out what happened to Dough.

As Mike Tyson says "We all do stupid shit when we get fucked up."

So how funny is it? It is not all that funny. There are a few good belly laughs. Surely this is much better stuff than Will Ferrell's work. However, that is damning with very faint praise. There are some things that just ain't funny at all. The Gay Asian dude is almost as funny as a children starving in Africa. That is, not funny at all. Don't get me wrong, I care not for a Lefty critique of the character or script construction. Rather, the actor playing the roll sucks. He just isn't funny at all.

Shockingly enough, Mike Tyson is the funniest guy in the movie. Shockingly enough, he is the source of the biggest belly laughs. No bullshit. If I was in Hollywood, I would situp and take notice of this. If I were a comedy writer, I would try to find ways to work Mike Tyson in to my stuff. He can contribute.

In the interests of full disclosure, I want everybody to know I was never in Mike's corner. I was always for Holyfield. Still, Iron Mike has a promising second act on tap, if he can keep his act together.

Other than Tyson, the only funny moments are the occasional flashbacks, bits of video tape and digital pictures of what the guys did when they were flying on Ruffies. There is a rather shocking photo shown at the end of the movie, during the credits. Stay and be shocked. Be warned, this is not for kids.

So just one last word about interpretation. I had read that The Hangover is ultimately palatable to everyone because it is a morality play and a precautionary tale. It warns us not to get fucked up in Vegas, otherwise all manner of living Hell on Earth will break loose. My dad rejected this interpretation and declared that this is an adventure movie. It is a movie where four guys have an adventure together, then end. It cannot be considered a precautionary tale because one guy gets very positive results out of the journey.

Well, after hearing both opinions--and seeing the movie--I must come down on the side of the Pros. They were right. My Dad got it wrong. Although the movie tries to be amiable about it, these guys took one hell of beating in Vegas. They lost a lot of money. They went to jail. They got taszered. They lost teeth. They got tiger stripes on their backs (from tiger claws). They got sun burnt beyond recognition. They got belted by the champ. They got beat up by little gay naked Asian dudes. They took a pounding. The dude who purportedly got good results got very questionable results at best. You can call it addition by subtraction. I am not sure what the future holds for him.

Ultimately, I did find this stoner movie palatable because it is a moral precautionary tale that warns us not to get fucked up in Vegas. As Mike Tyson says "We all do stupid shit when we get fucked up."

Incidentally, the Bride to be (Sasha Barrese) is absolutely stunning! What a gorgeous woman. I can't wait to see more of this woman. She is evidently of Russian extraction, and lived in Paris for a time. This is a devastating beautiful 28 year old woman here.

One word about Heather Graham: I am shocked by what a tiny part they gave her in this movie. She plays a nice character, but frankly, she was not given nearly enough work to do. At 38 Heather remains one of the most beautiful women on Earth. You & Mittens are always welcome at my place. You can come over and tell all the dirty jokes all you want. I'll even put on a Green Bay Packers game for you.

Hollywood aught to be ashamed that they don't use Heather more. She needs to accept the fact that you can't choose your fans. She always wanted to be popular with the girls, and be a girl-power heroine. Heather, you must accept the fact that your demographic is geeky guys who are into science fiction, comic books and video games. We need to see you in some scifi movies, preferably playing a deliciously clad super-heroine. You will be extremely popular again if you do this. Get together with Josh Wheddon about doing a project. He's the man. You would have been perfect on Serenity.