Sam Bradford's 2010 season; the over/under number is 3

Las Vegas is not yet taking over/under action on Sam Bradford, but they should be. The over/under number should be 3. Three is a magic number, yes it is.

1. With what pick will Sam Bradford be selected in the 2010 draft? The over/under number is 3.
2. The week of the 2010 season where Sam Bradford gets his first NFL start: The over/under number is 3.
3. The number NFL starts before Sam Bradford suffers a season ending injury? The over/under number is 3.
4. The number of touchdown passes Sam Bradford throws before his season ending injury in 2010? The over/under number is 3.
5. The number of sacks Sam Bradford will suffer before taking his season ending injury? The over/under number is 3.

Those should be your 5 magic over/under bets on Sam Bradford, oh ye Las Vegas lines. How would I be them?

1. Under: Whether he is taken by the Rams or the Browns, Bradford will probably be the top pick.
2. Under: The Rams will throw Sam in the shark tank immediately. The Browns will start Del Homme twice and after 14 turnovers, Sam goes in.
3. Under: If the Rams select Bradford, he's going to have a tough time making it to week 3 before suffering his season ending injury in 2010. If the Browns take him, he'll have a tough time making it to week 5 before the Steelers or Ravens kill him.
4. Under: If the Rams select Bradford, he's going to have to find a little target named Donnie Avery for legit TD passes. It will be hard to squeeze off 3 of those before Sam suffers his season ending injury of 2010.
5. Over: I think Sam will be sacked more than 3 times before suffering his season ending injury of 2010. This is true regardless of whether the Rams or Browns select him.

It sucks to be Sam. I feel bad for you man. The stars are poorly configured for your near-term future. I wish you the best. I hope I am wrong. I hope you turn out to be the A.P. Offensive Rookie of the year, but I certainly cannot bet on it.

Let's reason about significance of Vegas for just moment

I happen to know a lot of betting men at work and through friends. They, like most others, have been swept up in the hoopla about the Colts during this past week. They have contributed towards that strange figure everybody is talking about: 68.5% of all SB44 betting money has been placed on the Colts.

I am proud to say that I have deeply troubled these betting men with my assessment of two great computer simulations of the game.

1. The EA sports Madden 2010 simulation which picks the Saints to win 35-31
2. The PredictionMachine.com simulation which says that there is a 79.4% chance that the Colts will not cover the 4.5 point spread. {Remember, the Colts have to win by 5 or more points, or you loose money.}
   

What ever in the world do these two points mean? First, let's recognize the most obvious fact: If Colts should happen to win by 5 or 6 points, there will be a financial bloodbath in Las Vegas. 68.5% of the betting shares will have to be paid out. This is at a time when Vegas is deeply injured by recession.

Fortunately for Vegas, the odds of a financial Bloodbath are very low. According to the most Colt-friendly computer projections, there is a 79.4% chance that that Colts will not cover the spread. Let's not forget that the Madden 2010 simulation picks the Saints to win straight up.

Just to refresh you memory a bit, PredictionMachine.com stated that the Colts won only approximately 51% of the matches in their 50,000 match series. The Saints won approximately 49% of the time. Less than 1 point per game differentiated these two teams, when all scores were averaged. In 60% of their simulated victories, the Colts failed to cover the spread of 4.5 points. I remind you that this is the most Colt-friendly interpretation of the performance data you will find.

The correct interpretation of this data is as follows: This is an unbelievably tight match up of equally great, and similar, football teams. There is a razor thin difference between them. This match could go either way, depending on the breaks. The odds of a laugh-in or a blow-out are extremely low. There are really only two ways we can see a blow-out in this game:

1. Serious injuries would have to be sustained early by one side.
2. One side would have to come out and lay an egg, really stinking up the joint with serious errors.

Most experts and the software do not predict either event. PredictionMachine.com says that there is a 90% chance that the Colts won't win by 14. It also says that there is a 90% chance that the Saints won't win by 14. Remember, there is only a 20.6% chance that Colts can even cover the spread.

Vegas knows this. Vegas has intentionally set the spread so that they have an overwhelming (at least 79.4%) chance of collecting that 68.5% of betting money that went down on the Colts. They are in this business to make money, not to lose money. It does not pay Vegas to pick the winner. Vegas wins when you lose. The spread has been set to pretty well ensure you will lose your bet on the Colts. Vegas wasn't built on winners. Vegas was built on losers.

With that said, it should be noted that former Colts coach Tony Dungy has stated publicly that he does not believe SB44 will be close. He says it will be a snoozer with the Colts winning by 2 TDs. The Colts will hold the lead all game long.

When asked why he thinks that, Dungy states that Vikings laid an egg with 7 turnovers, and the Saints still only won the game by a field goal in overtime. The Colts will not turn over the football 7 times. The Colts, on the other hand, wasted the most powerful defense in the league. Ergo the Colts deserve to be there and the Saints don't?

You'll pardon me for saying so, but this is the purest example of human bias I have ever seen. Not only does his paternal pride show through, but he hyper-extends just one point of data when are 17 others to consider for each team. There is a way to hyper-extend one point of data such that you break your neck and your back. This is what human biases do to you. Don't buy off on it.

Why I am not concerned about the Championship games and their outcomes? I'll tell you why:

1. The Jets sustained serious injuries in their secondary during the course of the AFC champions game. This is why their coverage broke down, and they were forced to stop blitzing.
2. The Jets may have been the #1 defense in the league this season, but that isn't saying a whole lot. There was no legendary defense in the NFL during 2009. The Jets' defensive statistics do not compare favorably with those of the great defenses of the past.
3. We knew the Jets did not have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Colts.
4. The Saints began to play in a very odd, and conservative manner once the Vikings began to turn over the football. It is as if their confidence rose to a point where they did not feel they needed to be aggressive or take risks. They were confident that the Vikings were self-destructing. They took it easy, presuming the win was in the basket. This resulted in a much closer match than I expected.
   
5. I expect to see the same Saint team we saw against Arizona. This is a Saint team that is greatly concerned about the scoring prowess of their rival. I expect the Saint offense to swing for the fences and attack ruthlessly all game long. They know they are going to have to outscore the Colts in a scoring match. Even if the Colts begin to drop the ball, I expect the Saints to attack viciously and relentlessly.
   

So there you have it. If you took the Colts and the points, you are a stupid sucker. The most likely outcome of this game is that the last team to have possession of the football will probably win by a last-second field goal in regulation. This scenario cannot result in the spread being covered.

The Odds of winning SB44, Feb 2010 in Dolphin Stadium

So guess what? It appears that Vegas has just published its deep preseason verdict on the 32 franchises of the NFL. The Las Vegas odds of your team winning SB XLIV were just published by TheSpread.com. I am laughing my ass off. These little fuckers will never learn will they? I just blogged that all forms of predictability have broken down. I used their choice of Dallas vs. New England last year as the ultimate example of the folly of their method. Guess what? The little fuckers just went and did it again. I guess there is no fool like an old fool. The man assigned to pick the Super Bowl in preseason has been given a fools errand.

Guess who the favorites are to reach and win the Super Bowl? If the Odds makers are correct, New England will meet Dallas for the second straight year in the Super Bowl... er... they didn't play last year? You mean neither of these teams even qualified for the playoffs last season? But they were supposed to meet for the championship? How did the Cards get past Dallas? But... But... But... New England was supposed to go 16-0 again due to the weakness of their schedule?!?!? What happened?

You guys were full of shit, that's what happened. I know yah like to thank yo shit don't stank, but lean a little bit closer see your predictions smell like poo-poo-poo. Your predictions really smell like poo-poo-poo.

This all reminds me of Chris Berman picking the fucking Bills and 49ers 8 years in a row. It never happened. He just couldn't get off his obsession. Likewise for Vegas. Does anybody remember how many times Vegas picked the Raiders to meet the Cowboys during the 1970s? I think they were picked to meet something like 5 times and 3 straight between 1976 and 1978. Do you know how many times the Raiders met the Cowboys in the Super Bowl? Zero.

Now the Giants have 10/1 odds. The Steelers have 10/1 odds. The Cards have 30/1 odds. This is only slightly better than Buffalo who has 35/1 odds. The Jets have 25/1 odds. This means the Jets are more likely to reach the Super Bowl than the Cards, despite playing in the same division with the biggest favorite. How the fuck does that work?

The biggest long shots on the board are Kansas City and Detroit. Both have equal 100/1 odds. The next lowest odds belong to the Rams and Raiders at 75/1. The third match of the Bengals and 49ers is rated at 60/1.

Let's just say that this is the most amazing crock of shit I have yet smelled cooking a crock pot. If you think the Jags and Packers have better odds than the Cards, you are smoking something. Vegas must use the PFA method.

Yes, I know that the Super Bowl looser's jinks is real and powerful and effective. I said as much here. This time I am in doubt. Further, I just don't see a really powerful competitor for the Cards in the NFC, save the Giants. I know I am going to piss off 14 NFC cities with this statement, but I think the Giants are the only clear-cut quality team in the NFC. I'm not talking about talent. I am talking about team. The fallacy of preseason predictions is this: It is based on tallent evaulutation, not team work evaluation.

I don't buy the Philly story. I think that is bullshit. I don't buy the Viking story. I think it is equally bullshit. The Skins have proven again and again that you can't buy victory. $100m for Albert Haynesworth won't change that story. The Saints and the Falcons are the most interesting prospects, but there are many reasons to be uncertain of them. In the West, the Cards are alone and extremely tallented. I think they switched on and ignited as a team unit last year. Their offense was borderline sensational. Their special teams were excellent all year. Their Defense was inconsistent during the season, but tremendous during the playoffs.

Cards vs. Giants in the NFC championship.