So Las Vegas is running away with the Colts?

So, shortly after the NFC Championship game finished up in New Orleans, I heard reports that the Colts had been selected by Vegas as the favorite in SB44. I was mildly surprised. I would have expected them to go the other way. It would appear that a lot of gamblers jumped on the Colts' ship immediately, because the point-spread increased 2 points.

Let me give you a wise piece of betting advice. Take the Saints and the points. You can't go wrong. Either the Saints will win out-right, or the Colts won't cover the spread. Either way, you win money.

Why is Vegas making his mistake? Maybe they are not making a mistake. The system of favorites and point spread is designed to attract roughly equal quantities of money to both sides of the equation. In this way, the house always wins. It is not important for Vegas to correctly pick the winner. It is important for Vegas to manipulate the numbers to maximize profits. Vegas wasn't built on winners. Vegas was built on loosers. If they lead you to believe that the Colts will win when they are about to lose, Vegas wins.

If you think the Colts are going to scarper off easily with the title, your on drugs. If all goes according to plan, this is going to be an ultra-shootout. The last team to hold the football wins. The common logic says that these are two offensive juggernaughts. But are they really both offensive juggernauts? Let me tell you a few things you might not know.

1. The Saints are #1 in the NFL in total yardage with 403.8 yards per game.
2. The Saints are #1 in the NFL in total points with 32.9 per game 510 total.
3. The Colts are #9 in the NFL in total yardage with 363.1 per game
4. The Colts are #7 in the NFL in total points with 26 per game and 416 total.

Clearly, the Saints have the offensive advantage. #1 is a Juggernaught. #7 is not. The Saints offense is almost 7 points per game better than the Colts offense. That is not equal, especially when you are talking about high scoring teams. What about defense?

1. The Saints are #20 in the NFL in Defensive yardage per game with 341 per game.
2. The Saints are #13 in the NFL in Defensive points allowed with 21.3 per game
3. The Colts are #15 in the NFL in Defensive yardage per game with 339.2 per game
4. The Colts are #8 in the NFL in Defensive points allowed with 19.2 per game

The way I see it, the Saints offensive advantage is larger than the Colts defensive advantage. Colt defense is basically 2 points & 2 yards better per game than the Saints defense. That is pretty equal.

So if the Colts defense is 2 points better than the Saints, and the Saint offense is 7 points better than the Colts: the Saints win by 5 points. Add & deduct; you'll come out with the same figure. I would suspect it will be closer than that. A last second field goal will make the difference.

So why favor the Colts? I have only heard two answers for to this question:

1. The AFC defeated the NFC 37-27 this season
2. Peyton Manning plays for the Colts.

Don't read much into the AFC/NFC thing. This is only true because the worst teams in the NFL are concentrated in the NFC. The Saints were 4-0 vs the AFC. They were not subject to this statistical rule. If you want to bet on the Colts because of Peyton Manning, you have taken a reasonable stance. I do not object.

Shortly after the NFC Championship game, Prime Time and the Playmaker were giggling to themselves about the pending Super Bowl. Prime declared that Reggie Wayne would run wild against the Saints Secondary, but it would make no difference. The Saints would kill the Colts.

Now wouldn't it be nice for Vegas if it worked out that way? You install the Colts as the favorite, a lot of people bet that way, and the Saints win. Vegas cleans up.

I don't think I would go so far as to say the Saints will kill the Colts, but I do believe the Saints have to be favored to win... Presuming you are not a Vegas bookie. I think they are the stronger of two very equitable opponents. I have a ton of respect for both of these opponents. We have the two very best teams in the NFL slapping iron. This is the best possible matchup. It should be fantastic and high scoring shootout.

Game 14 2009

All 32 teams in the NFL played their 14th game this week. It was a hard week for my anointed teams. As you recall I picked the following teams in the preseason:

1. Colts (won--barely)
2. Dolphins (lost to the Titans)
3. Saints (lost to the Cowboys)
4. Packers (lost to the Steelers)

This wasn't the end of the struggles. The Cardinals had to fight to beat the Lions. It looked like they were going to crush them early, but then the Lions came back. The Vikings, a team I have never bandwaggoned with in 2009, dropped an ugly stinker in Carolina. Of the solid playoff teams, only the Eagles made a solid effort and won well.

Worst of all, my Rams got up on their hind legs and fought the good fight against the Texans, but they failed to win. Maybe my Rams were offended by my suggestion that they have packed it in for the year. They decided to fight before finally packing it in. Once again, I am extremely pleased with our outstanding defense. Once again, I am utterly horrified by our pathetic offense, and our inability to score points. We need a serious offensive overhaul, just like the one we did between 1998 and 1999.

You could make an argument that this weekend was only kind to 3 playoff teams:

1. The Chargers (they won, and the Broncos lost)
2. The Cardinals (they won, and the 49ers lost)
3. The Colts (they won again, and they are the only undefeated team in the league)

I would tend to agree with Jamie Dukes, regarding the New Orleans Saints: This loss is a blessing in disguise. The Saints have been winning thrillers lately, instead of delivering all-out beat-downs, the way they once were. Now they took a beating at the hands of Dallas. I do agree with the notion that this will give them a renewed and refreshed focus in practice. They now know that they are not immortals. They know they can be beaten They know they need to improve during these two weeks before entering the playoffs.

A friend of mine, who is a 49er fan expressed a similar thought when he said: "I agree with Bill Walsh's philosophy: Let them loose 1 and only 1." This can have a focal effect on a championship caliber team.

Also, the loss really didn't hurt the Saints at all. The Vikings turned right around and dropped an ugly game to the Panthers. One more victory locks up home-field advantage through the NFC tournament.

Quick note about the Packers

Just a quick thought or two about the Packers before I get underway this evening. Those who read this blog will know that I picked the Packers vs. Saints as the NFC championship game after the 4 preseason games. I also picked the Colts vs. Dolphins in the AFC championship at the same time. These looked like the 4 most outstanding teams to me in the 1st quarters of those 4 preason games.

Most would say that picking the two undefeated teams that early on is pretty good football prognosticating. They would have forgiven me for those other two picks, which didn't look so good a few weeks ago.

Lo-and-behold! Guess who is coming on strong all of a sudden?!?! The Packers are getting pretty hot as Green Bay is getting pretty cold. Did you hear what Steve Young had to say about these guys? He believes that Aaron Rogers is close to being the best QB in the league, and (of course) the Pack has the #1 yardage defense in the league. As Young correctly pointed out, this is spells serious trouble for Packer opponents in the playoffs. A highly efficient QB coupled with a powerful defense usually spells victory in the playoffs. Young believes that the Packers can cause some serious damage if they can only lock down a wildcard birth.

Some would dismiss Young as cheering for Rogers, a kid who is on very parallel path to the one Young suffered in his pro-career. Most of the guys on MNF and ESPN did not dismiss this analysis. Neither do I. Rogers is what is cracked up to be. The Packers' defense is getting stronger and stronger.

Now wouldn't it be something if those Packers just happened to get through to the NFC Championship game in the Super Dome against the Saints? Calling 3 out of the final 4 is pretty damn good football prognosticating.

A few words about last night's classic meeting between the Colts and Patriots

For those of you who missed it or changed the channels early, the Colts defeated the Patriots 35-34 in a heart-attack thriller that went down to the wire. If I were to give you the super short executive summary of the game it would look like this.

1. The Patriots dominated the first three quarters of play
2. Belichick dialed up a defense that gave Peyton Manning fits in the first three quarters. He cut off Dallas Clark. He disrupted communications between Manning and Wayne. He really messed the Colt machinery.
3. By the 4th quarter Manning figured out just exactly what Belichick was doing to him. The Manning computer came up with a solution set, and Peyton got red-hot.
4. Still, with about 7 minutes to go, the Patriots had a 13 point lead. That would disintegrate quickly.
   
5. With 2:23 showing on the clock, and Patriots clinging to a 6 point lead, the Patriots could not make a single first down. They did not attempt to run much in that series. They tried to throw the ball. Their passing attempts were crushed by the Colts. Several incomplete passes resulted in very few seconds running off the clock. Worse still, Brady burned precious time outs because he hated what the Colts were showing him defensively.
6. It came down to 4th & 2 on the 28 yard line. Belichick decided to go for it. Most of us thought he was bluffing. We though he would line up, try to jerk the Colts into an off-sides penalty, then punt from the 23. Nope, he wasn't Bluffing. Brady took the snap, threw a quick outlet pass to Faulk, and Faulk got power-slammed by the Colt's Melvin Bullitt. He looked like Dan Bunz knocking down David Verser in Super Bowl 16.
7. Some die-hard Patriot fans think Faulk got it, but this clearly not the case. As the ref said, Faulk was juggling the ball and did not establish possession until Bullitt had nearly slammed him on his back. The play could not be challenged or reviewed because Brady had burned all of the Patriots' timeouts. WOW!
   
8. The clock stopped for change of possession, and the ball went to the Colts on the 28 yard line with 2:08 showing on the clock. It was almost too easy for Peyton. He had to take it easy and kill the clock on the final drive. The Colts ran several times (in the center of the field) during this final drive, forcing the clock to run down. The Pats couldn't do anything about it because Brady had already killed their timeouts.
   
9. Reggie Wayne made one of the greatest catches I've ever seen to win the game. The coverage on him was unbelievably tight, and Manning had to lead Wayne way too much, but Wayne hulked up and made one hell of a catch. I guarantee you he is going to remember that as one of his greatest career plays.
10. Immediately after the game, former Patriot Strong Safety Rodney Harrison poured gasoline on his former coach and ignited it. He busted Belichick for the entire play selection, use of timeouts, and the 4th & 2 call. He felt the entire end sequence was miss-managed.
11. Trent Dilford followed, igniting Belichick some more. Teddi Bruschi didn't like the call either. One of the Boston newspapers led with the hadline "Braincramp", describing Belichick's manuevers at the end of the game. Most people are second-guessing Belichick this morning.
12. Tom Brady defended his coach, saying "It's a game of inches. 7 more inches, and we kneel down with the ball three times, and the game is over. You would all be praising the coach's decision then."

So what do I think?

• If Belichick had slammed Kevin Faulk into the middle of the line 3 times, and forced the Colts to burn their timeouts, what Brady said might make sense. This is not the case.
• Belichick called 3 passing plays on 4 downs. That is wacky.
• At the same time Bellichick allowed Brady to burn the Patriots' timeouts.
• By the time we arrived at 4th and 2, I can almost go along with Belichick's decision making process.
• Belichick is smart enough to know that Manning had computed a firing solution for his defense. He knew Manning was red-hot, and Bill did not want to give the ball back to Peyton. He knew he had had it.
  
• 28 yards or 68 yards would have made little difference in my estimation. With 2:08 on the clock and all his timeouts, Peyton would have carved up the Patriot defense. I think Belichick knew this. I believe he had more confidence in his offense's ability to stop Colts than his defense's ability to stop the Colts. I concur with that conclusion. The only way to stop Manning at that point was to keep him off the field.
• The Pats were crushed on the rocks of the Colt defense. That defense is a clutch defense. They have the ability to rise up in crucial moments and destroy you. We have to give a hell of a lot of credit to the Colts' defense for thumping the Patriots in the clutch.

So what can we say in the final analysis?

1. Belichick remains a hell of defensive thinker.
2. Belichick could not stop Manning all game long.
3. Manning is now better than ever at recognizing patterns in defenses, finding difficult solutions, and making real-time adjustments.
   
4. Tom Terrific and the Patriot offense choked in the clutch.
5. The Colt defense has the capacity to rise in crucial situations
   

So who is the better team? Right now we have to say the Colts. Let's wait for the playoffs and see the final outcomes.

The 2009 Vikings are the 2008 Browns

Last year the big buzz was about the Cleveland Browns. The Browns were the high fashion pick to win the AFC, if not the Super Bowl. They did not make it to the playoffs. They did not challenge the Steelers. The Steelers won the Super Bowl. Romeo Crenell got fired.

The Cowboys & Patriots were the favorites to meet in the Super Bowl according to most. Nope, neither one of them made it into the playoffs. Nobody favored the Steelers and Cardinals. If you had picked the Cardinals... I shutter to think of the consiquences of picking the Cardinals in the pre season of 2008. It would have been ugly.

The Colts and the Chargers were all supposed to be favorites as well. The Chargers had the worst record of any team to win its division. They upset the Colts who went 12-4, but were forced to take the wildcard route through the playoffs.

There is a lesson here: All forms of predictability have broken down. You cannot predict next years results based on last year. The continuity and consistency of teams has been irreparably compromised and destroyed by free agency. Whereas you could count on 6 to 10 years from a good unit in the years of indentured servitude. You can't count on anything now.

Now in 2009 everybody is buzzing about the Vikings. Mike Mayock, my most trusted advisor on the subject of talent, and normally the most reliable guy in the world, is also swept up in this mania. To be perfectly frank, he may even be the primary party responsible for it.

Well, I just want to go on the record here and say I don't believe it. Those who say that the team is loaded have a lot of explaining to do. The way I see it, the Vikings are team with only one legit superstar player. We all know that is Adrian Peterson. They have a modestly talented defense that does a hell of a lot with scheme and discipline. This is good, but remember: they are only modestly talented on defense. Jarred Allen may be the most modestly talented guy on this modestly talented defense, but he is no hall of famer. I do not believe they are a quarterback away from the Super Bowl. I do not believe Brett Farve is the last piece in the puzzle. I believe Brett Farve is beat to hell and utterly exhausted. I believe they have a better chance with the two QBs they have. To be frank, I suspect the Packers will be the team to beat in the NFC North.

Other teams I don't believe in

Patriots:

You know, once upon a time in the year 1980, I watched the two time defending Super Bowl champs, The Steelers, lose two tough games on Monday Night Football. They lost a big one to the next champs, the Raiders. They lost another big one to the San Diego Super Chargers. They finished 10-6. The Oilers 11-5, and the Browns 12-4 went to the playoffs. The Steelers stayed home for Christmas. I knew that was the end of the line for the Steelers. I was never concerned about them for the rest of 1980s. I just knew that was the end. I was right too. It was all down hill from there. I was very confident that that was the end of the dynasty. Many of the Steeler hall-of-famers continued to play for years after that. Still, they never did well after 1980. Chuck Knoll coached for 10 more years.

When the Pats lost Super Bowl 42, I knew that was the end of the dynasty. People have been talking shit about them going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl since the moment the Commish handed the Lombardi Trophy to the New York Giants. Do you realize how stupid you sound? I want to go on the record and say that I don't believe it. Especially now that Brady has had reconstructive knee surgery. A couple guys named Elway and Marino had this surgery. It took them two seasons to get back to something like their normal form. Neither were quite the same. I know the Patroit Dynasty ended two Super Bowls ago. That was the end of the line. Stop talking empty vanities and bullshit. It's over.

The Eagles

Please, bitch! The strength of that team was the defense; the Johnson & Dawkins defense. Both are now gone. The Eagles have done nothing to repair the breach. I am expecting a pretty sizable defensive breakdown from the Eagles in 2009. This Eagle defense will finish no higher than 15th in the NFL, dropping at least 12 slots from 2008. It could be worse than that.

"Oh, but the offense is greatly upgraded!" Let's wait and see how Michael Westbrook's surgically repaired ankle is. He is the West Coast back in the West Coast offense. He is the balls of the offense. They are not the same without him, and he has often been injured. I heard somewhere that he has never turned in a full 16 game season. If Westbrook is healthy and turns in 16 games the offense will be substantially upgraded. If he is not, forget it. All they did was tread water. Even in the best case scenario, offense wins games and defense wins championships. Forget the Lombardi Trophy. The Giants are way ahead of the Eagles.