More on the NFL Apocalyse

Just when you thought the NFL was the absolute king of the hill...

In a previous article, I discussed just what is at stake in the on-going NFL/NFLPA labor negotiations. I laid down a prophecy that if we have:

1. Baseball style free-agency
2. No franchise tag
3. No transitional tag
4. NBA cash contract style-trading
5. No salary cap
6. No salary floor
7. No revenue sharing or reduced revenue sharing

Then you will see Mayflower trucks loading up in all of the small NFL markets, headed for big markets. Los Angeles will have 2, not 1 franchise playing down in Industry. If San Diego loses the Chargers to Los Angeles, San Diego can replace them in 3-6 weeks with another team. Chicago will get a second team. Houston might get a second team. Las Vegas will get an NFL team. You will see a historical moment of unprecedented and inconceivable team movement.

Well... it turns out that there is more to the story than that. There more reasons why we might see a geographic redistribution of the NFL. In a very well written piece for the National Football Post, a fellow named Robert Boland laid out a few astounding facts that I was dimly aware of, but now keenly interested in.

1. 18 of the Leagues owners are over the age of 65
2. 8 of those owners are over the age of 80
3. Ralph Wilson is 91
4. Georgia's kids were assessed $200 million in inheritance tax on a franchise thought to be worth some $913 million.
5. Very few NFL families have the sort of wealth necessary to shell out a cold $200m to the IRS upon the death of the Patriarch.
6. The Rosenbloom's 60% will fetch a price valuing the team at $750m. This may have a negative impact on the valuation of all NFL teams.
7. Kahn's offer is the best on the table. If his offer is rejected by NFL Finance, the next price is significantly lower.

With 8 owners over the age of 80, we may well see this scenario played out several more times soon. If anyone else besides me watched the documentary series "Full Color Football" on the NFL Network, you must have been impressed by the fact that several of the 1960s founders of the AFL are still around the league today. Al Davis, Ralph Wilson and Bud Adams are just three of them. While Bud is still alive and flipping the bird, both Al and Ralph look to me like they are on their very last legs. To be brutally honest, Al Davis has been on death watch for at least two years now. Raider fans get up in the morning and immediately check the Internet news and see if he is still alive. Al was not present at the NFL Scouting Combine this year.

Let us reason out a scenario together. Suppose that three of our oldest owners were to kick off together in the near the future... say by the end of 2010. They say that they always go in groups of 3. Suppose 3--or even 2--sets of heirs cannot afford to pay the sum of $200-$300m in inheritance taxes. What then?

Several teams will be revalued at the same time, according to real market prices. Put a couple of teams on the auction block in tax distressed conditions, and the Great Recession, and then let's see what happens. The price should go down.

NFL teams are such expensive toys that the collection of prospective buyers is very small each and every time a franchise hits the market. If there are two many franchises on the market at once, what happens to the price? The price will go down again due to the glut of franchises.

What happens if NFL Finance swings open the door to attract more potential buyers due to the glut? You might get a collection of less-well healed owners, who might have trouble carrying a financial bleeder. What happens then? They might look for more lucrative markets in which to vend their product.

The age of present ownership has to be considered be a risk factor when we consider whether an epoch of franchise movement might be on the horizon.

So the NFL is thinking about playing 18 games per season?

The 2009 NFL Meetings just concluded in Dana Point California this week.  A lot of things happened, but nothing more significant than the proposal of an 18 game season.  The consensus says that this is going to happen, but not until 2011.  A collective barganing agreement with the Players Association will have to be hashed out first.

There are many coaches and players objecting to this proposal, so why is it so certain to go through?  There are several reasons, but the solid gold biggie is this:  The Networks are begging for it.  Why?

You have to understand the proposal.  Under the new plan, the NFC & AFC championships will be pushed all the way forward into February.  The Super Bowl will happen toward the end of February.  Feb happens to be sweeps month.  Sweeps determined network ratings for the year.  Network ratings in Feb determine what networks will earn all year long in terms of advertiser money.  Feb is a dead month in terms of sports.  March Madness is a month away.  The NBA is a long way from finished.  There is no Baseball.  Football has packed it in for another year.  This is why Sports Illustrated puts out a Swimsuit issue in Feb.  Sports radio hosts look for any scandal they can find, because there is little or nothing to report.  We hear a lot about verbal gaffs and steroids in Feb.

The Networks want to put the NFC & AFC championships as well as the Super Bowl in sweeps months, knowing full well the power of attraction these events hold.  It could boost network revenues considerably in a time when network ratings are circling the drain.  The Networks will break their megar bread with the NFL, if only the NFL will do them this favor.  Oh, yeah... More games will help the situation also.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Roger Godell's pet project is 1 international game per team per year.  Roger wants to see American Style Football become an international powerhouse.  Roger knows that the NFL must be the leader in this push.  The NCAA will never undertake this project by themselves.

Certain owners, such as Jerry Jones of the Cowboys, objected strongly to this project... at least in the framework of a 16 game season.  Jones sited the fact that he just invested in the Tajmahal of football, and can ill afford to loose 1 home game per year.  It would mess up his entire financial game plan.  On the other hand, Jones won't object to getting an extra home game... every other year.

The 18 game season seems like a deal in the works.  The Networks are begging for it.  It gives Godell the space he needs to undertake his international intiative.  Guys like Jerry Jones won't object to more games and more revenues.

I think this is going to happen.