So Jim Thomas says that the Rams are unlikely to move to Los Angeles?

Well, no sooner did I finish my last blog entry than Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was ready with a rebuttal for every one like me. Many pithy bloggers posted that Jim Thomas had made a convincing case for no move, and that is that. Case closed. Jim has spoken.

The Rams have 5 years left in St. Louis before they can break the lease on the Edward Jones Dome. We should remember that this lease is the only legal binding currently holding the Rams in St. Louis. Ownership won't speak loudly about this, or carry a stick. The new owners will say nothing about a move when they take over. They need decent revenues in the meantime. I bet you will be pretty shocked when it happens... or maybe you won't be so shocked. Everybody can see the handwriting on the wall.

For the record let me summarize Jim's 'convincing' argument:

1. As long as the Edward Jones done provides revenues placing the Rams in the top 8 money makers of the NFL, the escape clause cannot be exercised in 2014
2. The contract doesn't run out until 2016 otherwise
3. There is no pro stadium in Los Angeles.
4. The NFL is against team movement.
5. The NFL wants to hold the 2016 Super Bowl in Los Angeles to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the SBI which was held in Memorial Coliseum Los Angeles California. He says you can connect the dots. He does not say what he means by that. Jim, what the hell are you talking about here?
6. If the Rams were to return in 2016, it will be 22 years since they moved.
7. Lee Steinberg says that there are lot of Latinos in L.A. and they don't watch football.
8. Lee Steinberg and Sam Farmer say that L.A. suffers from deal fatigue; meaning we won't act on a new deal to bring the Rams here.
9. Lee Steinberg says that it won't be an emotional home coming if the Rams return to L.A. 2/3rds of the population won't remember the Rams as the home town football team
10. Houston beat out L.A. for an expansion franchise, ergo it is a lousy market for football.
11. All the big money men of L.A. have already failed to do an NFL deal. There is no reason to take them seriously now.

Q.E.D. There will be no move to Los Angeles for the Rams

It should be noted, in passing, that 77% of all quoted statistics are invented on the spot, without reference to any study. This is what they call PFA statistics in the social sciences.

Clearly, Jim is giving Roski short shrift. He doesn't believe the Stadium deal is happening in the City of Industry. He discounts the big money men of Los Angeles like Eli Broad, Ed Roski, etc., saying they have been toppled like tin soldiers. They have all failed... already. They have already struck out now and forever.

Well, you just keep thinking that. These kind of men seldom strike out forever. They just work at it for awhile. Just to make a couple of counterpoints.

1. The expansion deal failed for one big reason. The city government of Los Angeles would not finance the construction of a new NFL stadium. Houston was willing to build Reliant Stadium. They won.
2. Ed Roski's plan calls for no public money what-so-ever. He is going to build it. The City of Los Angeles be damned. DeBartolo basically had the same idea. With no city involvement in the deal, what will stop the construction of the stadium? Environmental impact? Not in the City of Industry.
3. With the Cowboys opening the Taj Mahal of football, New York ready to outclass them in just one year, and SF & Oakland talking about a deal to do a join 49er+Raider facility in Freemont, do you think that the Edward Jones dome can continue to provide top 8 finishes? Already the Rams are barely clinging to the last percentile of that deal. The Rams will probably fall out of the top 8 this season.
4. Even the rumors of a move could dissuade the people of St. Louis from buying as many tickets as they have. NFL tickets are damn expensive, and they are going up. We are in the midst of a pretty nasty recession right now, and St. Louis is not doing well. Do they need another reason not to buy tickets? The rumor of a move combined with recession could produce that drop-off in sales that permits that move to happen two years earlier rather than two years later.
5. Jim seems to think Roski is the man who will buy the Rams. Not so. He has emphatically said he is not placing a bid. He just wants to house them when they come. Ergo everything he says about Roski needing to sell his shares in the casino business is off point. Although it is not important to this case, it should be noted in passing that owning casinos never stopped Eddie DeBartolo from owning the 49ers.
6. Yes, Walnut is suing the City of Industry. That has never stopped Industry from doing anything in the past. Good luck in stopping the Stadium deal, Walnut. Don't blink and you won't miss the hearing. Believe me, this is a bump in the road. Negotiations on a settlement broke off because Walnut wanted to stop the deal cold, and Roski knows he will win in court. The plan is on hold until the Superior court hears the case. Don't expect Industry to loose this one. The California Superior court will decide this one the same way they have decided all these cases in the past. Nothing will be terminated until a full plan for the work is submitted for environmental impact study. Only then will an order to terminate development be entertained. Roski wins this round.
7. So the NFL is against team movements, eh? That stopped the Rams from moving last time didn't it? It stopped the Cardinals from moving 3 times. It stopped the Raiders from moving twice, the Oilers from changing to the Titans, the Browns from turning into the Ravens... You get my drift.
8. The 2016 Super Bowl is really neither here nor there. The NFL can get around that rule, as they get around or change any rule they find obstreperous. If anything, it adds a bit of coal on the fire to put a team in Los Angeles. If anything, it would incline them to allow nature to take its course, and stand aside as the new Ram owner moves to the second largest market in North America.

Let's see how against it the NFL is when they have the opportunity to put the Rams back in Los Angeles, in a new NFL class convertible dome, without reference too or interference from the City of Los Angeles. Jim, I have enjoyed your writing a great deal over the past bunch of years. I hate to say it, but you just aren't right about this one. You are trying to make a thinly covered emotional case for your personal interests, rather than understand real politics on the ground over here in Los Angeles. You also presume that the real politics at NFL HQ favor St. Louis. That assumption is not well founded.

Perhaps you should come out for a week or two and stay at my place. You can do all the investigative reporting you want to do while you are here. I am very interested in learning more about this myself. I will introduce you to many people who remember the Rams. You can also make a guest apperance on the NFL Network, which is here in L.A. You can also visit ESPN's new West Coast HQ which is just outside the Staple's Center, owned by Roski.