Is Intel going to loose its manufacturing advantage?

Whatever happened to 32nm chips?

It was a mere 4 months ago that Intel first demo'd working 32nm processors in both mobile and desktop systems. Those chips were to become available soon. Soon is still not here yet.

Now all of a sudden, I hear news TSMC will be moving to a 28nm fabrication process early in 2010. Now Toshiba is going to be mass producing 28nm chips in the same time frame.

This has implications. Unless both TSMC and Toshiba are vastly over-optimistic about their time frame, Intel is going to going to lose the lead in manufacturing. Think it through. Intel has still not shipped its first 32nm chip. They have a way to go before they completely convert to 32nm. There will be 45nm transistors in Intel's lineup for some time. However, TSMC and Toshiba plan to ship 28nm chips early in 2010.

This news is like ship bearing a pirate flag rising up over a watery horizon in front of a harbor town. A sense of dread must be rising in the hearts of Intel Corp all over the world.

Is it actually possible? Do you think they will actually do it? Can it be? TSMC vowed several years ago they would take the manufacturing process lead away from Intel. Now it appears they are on the verge of doing it. But Toshiba also?