As you all know, I live in Los Angeles. HQ for the St. Louis Rams is here. The once and future Los Angeles Rams have deep roots my sector of the world. A little birdie done told me that that Rams and Jets are beginning preliminary talks about swapping some draft picks. What is the scoopy-pooh?
First a disclaimer: Remember all of this blatant NDA buster material, and none of it may pan out. Many more draft deals fall-through than go-through. This is true each and every year. It is common for teams to talk to each other and do nothing. A lot of teams talk to each other about picks, but many fail to finalize a deal.
With that said…
Rumor has it that the Rams are quite unhappy with their position in this year's draft. The #2 is bad for a lot of reasons this year. Most important is the fact the Rams have four major needs this year: (1) Left tackle, (2) Right Guard,(3) Center and also (4) Left Guard. It is a commonly accepted fact that the Rams have the worst offensive line in professional football. This has been true for 2 years running now. This is the critical weakness that has made us loosers 2 years in a row. Only our right tackle Alex Barron is moderately solid. This year's draft class has quite a few good men in these slots, but none who are worthy of being drafted #2.
With that said, understand that Mel Kiper rates Andre Smith of Alabama as the #4 prospect in the entire draft. Others disagree. Kiper is frequently wrong. The only draft evaluator I trust is Mike Mayock of the NFL network. This guy has street-cred. Mayock has not yet issued a discernable verdict on Andre Smith. I look forward to his verdict with great interest. Folks I've talked too believe Andre Smith is fat and out of shape. They believe his weight problem will get worse, not better, over time.
With various salary cap problems, the Rams are strongly disinclined to reach for an offensive lineman and pay him #2 pick money. Further, there is a belief that, push comes to shove, Pace could play one more season for the Rams. You'll need to pay him his full price and talk him out of early retirement, but he could play another season.
So what are the Rams to do about their draft position? The obvious answer is: Trade down. But who wants the #2 pick? Surprisingly, the answer is the New York Jets. Let's face the facts: The Jets are recovering from the Brett Farve debacle. They gave away a perfectly good QB and traded a #3 pick for an old man who was great for a small portion of just 1 season. Now they have no QB and no 3rd Round pick. At the very least, they need a QB or they might as well not bother to take the field this year.
So here is the problem the Jets must face: Detroit is expected to select Matthew Stafford of Georgia. In this scenario, one half of the decent prospects are gone after the Lions take the first pick off the board. The Rams aren't looking for a QB... yet... so they are expected to pass on Mark Sanchez of USC. Kansas City drafts #3 and they are going to take Sanchez, according to rumor. That's the end of the good prospects for this year, mate. If you need a franchise QB we'll see you next year when we'll have a bumper crop of great prospects to pick from.
So somehow the Jets need to get above KC in order to take a decent franchise QB prospect. The solution is simple: cut a deal with the Rams. What makes it more intriguing is that the Jets have some good young offensive linemen that they can use as bait. It would be very unwise for them to deal anyone like Ferguson or Mangold, but if worse comes to worse, they could. It should be noted that the Rams wanted to put Faneca next to Orland Pace last year. The Jets got him. It is much more likely that NYJs will send their #1 and #2 pick to the Rams for the #2 over-all pick. The Rams may want a sweetener, but they may not get one.
So do I like this idea? Would I deal the #2 pick for the Jet's #1 & #2? I'll give you a short answer and a long answer. The short answer is "Yes". The long answer is as follows: With three lower picks we have a good shot at sweeping all the great interior line prospects in the draft. We could potentially get the best guards and centers in the draft. With a young and decent Alex Barron at the right tackle position, and perhaps just one more season out of Orlando Pace, the Rams could have a vastly upgraded offensive line for 2009. Ergo, the deal will work for the Rams.
We'll have to see if it happens.
Somehow, the pessimist in me says that the Rams will blow it. We might not do anything about our OL problems. This is precisely what we did last year, with disastrous consequences. Instead, we might draft a great Wide Receiver like Michael Crabtree. Don't get me wrong, I love Crabtree to death, but he just isn't an offensive lineman. He can't block a nose tackle for us. No matter what his amazing skills may be, he isn't going to help the Rams as much as a couple of lethal-strength offensive linemen will.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Ram Fans are pulling like a MoeFoe for Kurt Warner
So, the Super Bowl hype has begun. To this affect, last night the NFL network showed several of the highlight films from the Steelers many Super Bowl seasons. More specifically, I saw the "America's Game" Documentaries for the 1974 and 1975 Steelers. I don't know how many films they showed because I didn't turn on the HDTV until around 7:00pm or 8:00pm PST. It might have been 5 hours (5 documentaries) as the Steelers have won 5 Super Bowls.
Unfortunately, there are no such films for the Cardinals. To redress the balance, what could the NFL network do? They showed the America's Game documentary about the 1999 Rams. The 1999 Rams were voted the greatest single-season turn around in the history of the league by the NFL's "Top 10" documentary group. It was also the year Kurt Warner broke out and became a super-star as the grand-master of the Greatest Show on Turf.
There is a St. Louis connection between the Rams and Cardinals. There is also a Kurt Warner connection between the Rams and Cardinals. There is also a divisional connection between the Rams and Cardinals: Both are in NFC West. There is also a franchise movement connection between the Rams and Cardinals: both moved twice. There is also a stylistic connection between these two teams. Like the Rams, the Cardinals also have an Ex-Colt in their backfield. The Edge is substituting for Marshall Faulk in this interpretation of the play. Both had superior offenses and good scoring defenses. There is also a rags-to-riches turnaround story that they share. Furthermore, the Cards are only the second 9-7 football team in the history of the League to reach the Super Bowl. The other was the 1979 Los Angeles Rams, who also won the NFC title, who faced these same Pittsburg Steelers in the Rose Bowl (a virtual home game).
We gave 'em hell in that game, but we lost. The lead changed hands 7 times in Super Bowl XIV. The Rams lead for most of the first 3 quarters. Bradshaw threw 3 interceptions. Steeler fans were dropping bricks in their shorts when the 4th quarter arrived and the Rams were still leading 19-17. Lynn Swan had been knocked out by Pat Thomas earlier in 3rd quarter. Then Bradshaw hit Stallworth on 60-prevent-slot-hook-and-go and the Steelers went ahead 24-19. Vince Ferragamo almost got us the lead back, but Jack Lambert intercepted him at the 20 of the Steelers. The Franco Harris got a meaningless touchdown on clock-killing drive as the clock wore down to nothing. The final was 31-19.
It was not a blow-out or an ass-whupping, and everybody knew it. It was closer than the now-legendary Cowboy Super Bowl from the year before. It was supposed to be a massacre. The Steelers were happy to get out of there with their skins (mostly) enacted. Fred Dryer (famous from TV series Hunter) was interviews by Steve Sabol of NFL films and said "We fought the hell out of 'em. I guarantee you those bastards will be hurting tomorrow." The Super Bowl XIV cover of Sports Illustrated declared "This One Was Really Super".
I should mention that this was the first football game I ever watched in my life (start to finish). This was the moment when I fell in love with Football, and it was the moment I became a Ram fan. Rightly or wrongly, the shadow of that loss hung over my youth, and didn't really dissipate until Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk showed up in 1999. You can imagine how I felt when we finally won the big one.
Loosing the big one is horrible. Being the laughing stock of the league is horrible. A lot of that can be swept for the Cardinals if they defeat the Steelers on Super Sunday.
I see a lot of connections between Rams and the Cardinals in this game. It's a bit eerie and magical. I don't know about the rest of you Ram fans in SoCal, but I am pulling like a MoeFoe for Kurt Warner in this game. It's strange to think of it this way, but there are going to be hardcore NFL fans native to St. Louis, Los Angeles and Phoenix all lining up behind the Cards for several of these reasons.
If Kurt obtains the victory in this game he can be elected the Governor of Missouri the next day. Believe me, they'll hold a special election for him if he'll take the job. Furthermore, he'll become a lock for the Hall of Fame.
Unfortunately, there are no such films for the Cardinals. To redress the balance, what could the NFL network do? They showed the America's Game documentary about the 1999 Rams. The 1999 Rams were voted the greatest single-season turn around in the history of the league by the NFL's "Top 10" documentary group. It was also the year Kurt Warner broke out and became a super-star as the grand-master of the Greatest Show on Turf.
There is a St. Louis connection between the Rams and Cardinals. There is also a Kurt Warner connection between the Rams and Cardinals. There is also a divisional connection between the Rams and Cardinals: Both are in NFC West. There is also a franchise movement connection between the Rams and Cardinals: both moved twice. There is also a stylistic connection between these two teams. Like the Rams, the Cardinals also have an Ex-Colt in their backfield. The Edge is substituting for Marshall Faulk in this interpretation of the play. Both had superior offenses and good scoring defenses. There is also a rags-to-riches turnaround story that they share. Furthermore, the Cards are only the second 9-7 football team in the history of the League to reach the Super Bowl. The other was the 1979 Los Angeles Rams, who also won the NFC title, who faced these same Pittsburg Steelers in the Rose Bowl (a virtual home game).
We gave 'em hell in that game, but we lost. The lead changed hands 7 times in Super Bowl XIV. The Rams lead for most of the first 3 quarters. Bradshaw threw 3 interceptions. Steeler fans were dropping bricks in their shorts when the 4th quarter arrived and the Rams were still leading 19-17. Lynn Swan had been knocked out by Pat Thomas earlier in 3rd quarter. Then Bradshaw hit Stallworth on 60-prevent-slot-hook-and-go and the Steelers went ahead 24-19. Vince Ferragamo almost got us the lead back, but Jack Lambert intercepted him at the 20 of the Steelers. The Franco Harris got a meaningless touchdown on clock-killing drive as the clock wore down to nothing. The final was 31-19.
It was not a blow-out or an ass-whupping, and everybody knew it. It was closer than the now-legendary Cowboy Super Bowl from the year before. It was supposed to be a massacre. The Steelers were happy to get out of there with their skins (mostly) enacted. Fred Dryer (famous from TV series Hunter) was interviews by Steve Sabol of NFL films and said "We fought the hell out of 'em. I guarantee you those bastards will be hurting tomorrow." The Super Bowl XIV cover of Sports Illustrated declared "This One Was Really Super".
I should mention that this was the first football game I ever watched in my life (start to finish). This was the moment when I fell in love with Football, and it was the moment I became a Ram fan. Rightly or wrongly, the shadow of that loss hung over my youth, and didn't really dissipate until Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk showed up in 1999. You can imagine how I felt when we finally won the big one.
Loosing the big one is horrible. Being the laughing stock of the league is horrible. A lot of that can be swept for the Cardinals if they defeat the Steelers on Super Sunday.
I see a lot of connections between Rams and the Cardinals in this game. It's a bit eerie and magical. I don't know about the rest of you Ram fans in SoCal, but I am pulling like a MoeFoe for Kurt Warner in this game. It's strange to think of it this way, but there are going to be hardcore NFL fans native to St. Louis, Los Angeles and Phoenix all lining up behind the Cards for several of these reasons.
If Kurt obtains the victory in this game he can be elected the Governor of Missouri the next day. Believe me, they'll hold a special election for him if he'll take the job. Furthermore, he'll become a lock for the Hall of Fame.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Why I am no longer crazy about SilverLight 2.0
Over the past year there has been a frisson of excitement about SilverLight 2.0 in the .NET world. I too was swept away in it. Why? It looked like the 3rd time would be a charm. What do I mean by the 3rd time is the charm?
Sun tried to introduce Applets with their Java platform more than a decade ago. About 12 years of experiance has proven that this concept was (is) a market failure. The technology works fine and almost nobody uses it. I can only name 3 or 4 working applets out there on the net that are of any significance. Strike one for hard code in the browser.
Microsoft tried to counter Applets with ActiveX in the browser. This was an unmidigated catastrophy. Words cannot express what a disaster this was for Microsoft. The echos and reverberations of this calamety are still being felt today throughout the world. ActiveX controls/applications inside IE5 & IE6 had no practical limits. You could do absolutely anything with ActiveX inside IE5&6. If you could code it, you could do it. This resulted in the great Spyware Pestilence of 2003. IE became the greatest vector of contageon the computer world had ever known. This gave Microsoft a seriously bad rep for unreliable and insecure systems, prone to ID theft. They are still trying to live down this bad rep today. What a disaster!
So now here comes Silverlight 2.0. This is basically a .NET Applet which is portable across multiple platforms and browsers, but based on a tight security model. You can write your .NET code in the language of your choice, but not all things are possible. You can't just do anything and everything you want to an end-user's machine. Silverlight 2 is not intended as a Flash killer. It is not in competition with Adobe Flash, no matter how often this erroneously statement is repeated. The intent is to put smart applications in the browser, just like Java Applets, just like ActiveX apps.
A lot of XAML graphical junk is possible. You can talk with web services. There is the possibility of 3d graphics and games. Rockford Lhotka is bringing his marvelous CSLA framework to Silverlight 2.0. His firm believes Silverlight is the way, the truth and the light. No one will reach the father without Silverlight 2.0, acording to Mugenic. However, and this is a drop dead issue for me, all of your code gets downloaded with Silverlight 2.0 applet zip file. This is CIL code... or original source code... I can't seem to get a clear answer on this question. In any event, the app can be totally disassembled and de-obfuscated using .NET Reflector and its marvelous plugins. I have done this. It is perfectly possible. It is easier now than ever before to interogate somebody else's code and figure out how it is done.
So why does this matter? When you code in ASP.NET or the MVC framework, you enjoy code privacy. Competitors will need to hack their way into your servers to get your source code, and thereby discover how you do things. That is a tall order. If you know what you are doing, it ain't so hard to lock these little fuckers out. If your rival knows what he is doing, it is difficult to hack into his server. I am a private source guy. My company is a private source company. A lot of crucial trade secretes are embeded in our source code. Not many know how to do what we do. Many confidential bits of knowledge can also be found inside the running bits of our app code. The web has protected our trade secrets rather well by hiding this stuff on our servers. Putting them into Silverlight would let the proverbial cat out of the bag. Personally, I can tell you that my blood runs cold at the thought of exposing our code to the world. It's not because I am embaressed about what I have written. Rather the opposite. I am afraid I am going to educate our rivals.
For this reason, my enthusiasm for Silverlight 2 has flat-lined. It no longer has a pulse. Although I was daunted by it at first, my enthusiasm for ASP.NET MVC is growing by the day. I believe this is the path to ultra-high reliability software. If implemented fully--in all its glory--MVC should deliver flawless software to the consumer and provide strong security for the authors. I believe in ASP.NET MVC.
Sun tried to introduce Applets with their Java platform more than a decade ago. About 12 years of experiance has proven that this concept was (is) a market failure. The technology works fine and almost nobody uses it. I can only name 3 or 4 working applets out there on the net that are of any significance. Strike one for hard code in the browser.
Microsoft tried to counter Applets with ActiveX in the browser. This was an unmidigated catastrophy. Words cannot express what a disaster this was for Microsoft. The echos and reverberations of this calamety are still being felt today throughout the world. ActiveX controls/applications inside IE5 & IE6 had no practical limits. You could do absolutely anything with ActiveX inside IE5&6. If you could code it, you could do it. This resulted in the great Spyware Pestilence of 2003. IE became the greatest vector of contageon the computer world had ever known. This gave Microsoft a seriously bad rep for unreliable and insecure systems, prone to ID theft. They are still trying to live down this bad rep today. What a disaster!
So now here comes Silverlight 2.0. This is basically a .NET Applet which is portable across multiple platforms and browsers, but based on a tight security model. You can write your .NET code in the language of your choice, but not all things are possible. You can't just do anything and everything you want to an end-user's machine. Silverlight 2 is not intended as a Flash killer. It is not in competition with Adobe Flash, no matter how often this erroneously statement is repeated. The intent is to put smart applications in the browser, just like Java Applets, just like ActiveX apps.
A lot of XAML graphical junk is possible. You can talk with web services. There is the possibility of 3d graphics and games. Rockford Lhotka is bringing his marvelous CSLA framework to Silverlight 2.0. His firm believes Silverlight is the way, the truth and the light. No one will reach the father without Silverlight 2.0, acording to Mugenic. However, and this is a drop dead issue for me, all of your code gets downloaded with Silverlight 2.0 applet zip file. This is CIL code... or original source code... I can't seem to get a clear answer on this question. In any event, the app can be totally disassembled and de-obfuscated using .NET Reflector and its marvelous plugins. I have done this. It is perfectly possible. It is easier now than ever before to interogate somebody else's code and figure out how it is done.
So why does this matter? When you code in ASP.NET or the MVC framework, you enjoy code privacy. Competitors will need to hack their way into your servers to get your source code, and thereby discover how you do things. That is a tall order. If you know what you are doing, it ain't so hard to lock these little fuckers out. If your rival knows what he is doing, it is difficult to hack into his server. I am a private source guy. My company is a private source company. A lot of crucial trade secretes are embeded in our source code. Not many know how to do what we do. Many confidential bits of knowledge can also be found inside the running bits of our app code. The web has protected our trade secrets rather well by hiding this stuff on our servers. Putting them into Silverlight would let the proverbial cat out of the bag. Personally, I can tell you that my blood runs cold at the thought of exposing our code to the world. It's not because I am embaressed about what I have written. Rather the opposite. I am afraid I am going to educate our rivals.
For this reason, my enthusiasm for Silverlight 2 has flat-lined. It no longer has a pulse. Although I was daunted by it at first, my enthusiasm for ASP.NET MVC is growing by the day. I believe this is the path to ultra-high reliability software. If implemented fully--in all its glory--MVC should deliver flawless software to the consumer and provide strong security for the authors. I believe in ASP.NET MVC.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
3d a smash at CES? LaserVue puts plasma to shame...?
Or so they say here. Supposedly, 3d ready HDTVs like Mitsubishi's DLPs and Panasonic's Plasmas are the rage right now at CES. What is a 3d ready HDTV? It basically an HDTV which can take any Blu-Ray {and perhaps any HDMI digital input} and transform the standard flat 2d picture into a stereoscopic picture. This means you can sit in front of the DiamondScan or the Viera and watch Dark City, or Apocalypto or No Country for Old Men in 3d. All you need are the customary glasses. The original authors and engineers of the film and disk do not need to do anything special to permit this stereoscopic feature to function. Its all done, post-process, with our marvelous silicone digital signal processing technology.
Although I have never been a particular fan of 3d movies, I must admit, this is cool feature. It would be fun and cool to try it out with my library. It would give me a reason to go back and watch all my favorites again. I am skeptical it will work well {this technology has never worked well in my estimation} but it would be fun to try it. Based on the enthusiasm for the tech, it must be working better than I would presume.
But then again...
We come to the issue of LaserVue. If you read my past blog entries, you know what I think about LaserVue: Its a fraud. The emperor has no cloths on. I say this is as a commited DLP fan who wishes it would work. I am more likely to buy a Mitsubishi DiamondScan 835 than a LaserVue right now, and not because of LaserVue's price. I would finance it, if I though it would work better. It does not.
Nevertheless, somehow, someway, the lovely Alix Steel [will you marry me babby?] is all bubbly about how LaserVue puts Plasma to shame. She even embedded a small res video in her post to prove it... not that such a proof can prove her point. I hope you are right, Alix, but I am highly skeptical. One thing I will say is this: You are girl after my own heart. Image quality is more important than skinny screens.
I vow that I will give LaserVue another look soon. It may be that Mitsubishi debugged their shtick in the past few months. I was expecting major improvement with the next gen. So far we have no generational landmark, but Mitsubishi may be making improvements to the LaserVue firmware. This process did wonders for my mighty PS3.
In my last survey of the market, Panasonic's marvelous Viera PZ850 series proved itself to be a serious contender for the championship. If the LaserVue can put such a screen 'to shame' it will be worth every penny of the $7,000 they are asking for it. It is no mean task to crush the PZ850 series or the Pioneer Kuro Elite Pro.
Although I have never been a particular fan of 3d movies, I must admit, this is cool feature. It would be fun and cool to try it out with my library. It would give me a reason to go back and watch all my favorites again. I am skeptical it will work well {this technology has never worked well in my estimation} but it would be fun to try it. Based on the enthusiasm for the tech, it must be working better than I would presume.
But then again...
We come to the issue of LaserVue. If you read my past blog entries, you know what I think about LaserVue: Its a fraud. The emperor has no cloths on. I say this is as a commited DLP fan who wishes it would work. I am more likely to buy a Mitsubishi DiamondScan 835 than a LaserVue right now, and not because of LaserVue's price. I would finance it, if I though it would work better. It does not.
Nevertheless, somehow, someway, the lovely Alix Steel [will you marry me babby?] is all bubbly about how LaserVue puts Plasma to shame. She even embedded a small res video in her post to prove it... not that such a proof can prove her point. I hope you are right, Alix, but I am highly skeptical. One thing I will say is this: You are girl after my own heart. Image quality is more important than skinny screens.
I vow that I will give LaserVue another look soon. It may be that Mitsubishi debugged their shtick in the past few months. I was expecting major improvement with the next gen. So far we have no generational landmark, but Mitsubishi may be making improvements to the LaserVue firmware. This process did wonders for my mighty PS3.
In my last survey of the market, Panasonic's marvelous Viera PZ850 series proved itself to be a serious contender for the championship. If the LaserVue can put such a screen 'to shame' it will be worth every penny of the $7,000 they are asking for it. It is no mean task to crush the PZ850 series or the Pioneer Kuro Elite Pro.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
So we have five or six holocaust movies to see this weekend...
...and that is because producers are making a crass grab for the Oscar gold, or so says deputy editor Andrew Wallenstein of the Hollywood Reporter. He flat out declares that these film makers have no interest in Holocaust material, beyond the Oscar incentives. Kate Winslet is even making fun of her Holocaust movie (The Reader) in a BBC sketch comedy show, saying she knew there were no more Holocaust movies to make, and she only did it for the Oscar.
I have an idea. Let's make a movie about a Hungarian Gay Jewish Cowboy politician, who is sent to Auschwitz by the Natzi's when he runs for the Mayorship of Budapest. We will call the movie Brokeback Milkowicz. It is sure to beat Wall-e for the Oscar.
I wonder if the Academy realizes what a predictable mockery it has become?
I have an idea. Let's make a movie about a Hungarian Gay Jewish Cowboy politician, who is sent to Auschwitz by the Natzi's when he runs for the Mayorship of Budapest. We will call the movie Brokeback Milkowicz. It is sure to beat Wall-e for the Oscar.
I wonder if the Academy realizes what a predictable mockery it has become?
Monday, December 15, 2008
Obama has Zero Degrees of Freedom
Lately the subject of the economy has been weighing heavily on my mind. It seems to me that the entire house of cards is tumbling down as a result of mortgage banking crisis.
T-Bills went negative last week. That is, investors were paying the U.S. Federal government to warehouse their money in T-bills for an allotted time. This is the logical equivalent of renting a safety deposit box in a bank to store you money in. Why would ultra-rich and ultra-savvy investors ever do such a thing? There is only one answer: It is a vote of no confidence in the banks. Rich men do not trust banks with deposits larger than $250,000 because such deposits are not ensured and they fear the banks may be going out of business. They view Federal T-Bills as guaranteed and secure. This is the only logical explanation.
The logical implications are dire, and they should make your blood run cold. The Implication is that the ultra-rich still expect more banks to fold, and large fortunes stored there-in to be lost. They must not know who is solvent and who is not. Ergo they trust no one. This also implies corollaries about our level of transparency and accountability in finance. This should also make your blood run cold.
Now we hear tell of a simple Ponzi scheme run by--the former head of NASDAQ, and a member of the SEC--Bernard Madoff. This scheme bagged such famous names as HSBC, RBS, and Groupo Santander. $50 more billion has been lost, charities have closed, personal fortunes have been destroyed, but worse still is the level of distrust this has created in the money market at a time when we can ill afford more distrust. Worse still is the fact that many of Bernard Madoff's big customers, like Groupo Santander, knew his transactions could not net the level of profitability he reported. They guestimated that he was engaged in another form of illegal insider trading called 'Front Running', and they fully accepted him on that basis because they believed they were making money.
The prime is at 1% and the Fed is ready to cut that rate in half. That doesn't give them much room left for cuts. Many astute observes have asked what the Fed will do if this latest half-point cut does not work. The answer is: Monetary Easing. This is the last tool left in the box. It is the nuclear option.
What is Monetary Easing? It means the Treasury is going to print a ton of money, and flood us up to our waists in dollar bills. In three years time this will produce double-digit inflation, but in the short run it might unfreeze the credit system. Underscore the word 'might'. This action will prove that Keynes was right: In the long run we are all dead.
The problem is that {lately} the value of the dollar has been crumbling. The dollar surged, strangely enough, in the month of September as the banking crisis broke out. The Dollar made a big move against the Euro, going from 1.54 to 1.25. It improved against 15 major world currencies, as well as commodities like Gold and Oil. Now, in the past week or so, the Dollar is pulling back. Already the Euro has recovered to nearly 1.37. After reaching $40 per barrel, oil has risen as high as $47 and currently sits at $44.68.
If the Fed and Treasury chose to pursue a policy of Monetary Easing, the Dollar will crumble.
Which brings us to the biggest problem of all: What happens if our fiat money system collapses? As you know, our Dollar bill is backed by nothing more than the full faith and credit of the U.S. Federal government. Nothing more. How real is that? Real enough that investors would prefer to warehouse their dollars with the Fed rather than a bank. But how long with this condition persist?
This brings us to the biggest issue, and the subject of this post: Barak Obama has zero degrees of freedom in his upcoming presidency. As I have written before, HSBC predicts the current recession will last 5 years until September of 2013. This is provided the world doesn't end in 2012 as the Mayan calendar predicts.
If we have four lousy years of recession between 2008 and 2012, Barak will get fired. The people are irrational. They believe the president is the commander & chief of the economy. This is absolute bullshit, of course, but the people believe it. When the economy turns bad, they fire the president. Just ask George Bush I. He 93% approval rating at the end of Gulf-War I. He got fired a year or so later when it became clear we were in an Oil-Shock recession. This is the fickleness of the American People, of whom I am one.
If Barak wants to get re-elected, he has to find a way to restore growth, and make it clearly visible before 2012. Otherwise, he will be a one termer. When you are in this sort of a mess, how do you get out of it in 4 short years? The answer is that you do the very best and most complex linear programming you can and you pick every last optimal solution point. You try to bull’s-eye each one of those optimal solutions with pinpoint policies. In this scenario, you cannot afford to custom tailor a bill for even your best supporters. You must pick the optimal choice and not vary from it.
The logical implication is that those on the Left expecting highly-favorable and high-priced legislation are doomed to be disappointed by Barak Obama.
T-Bills went negative last week. That is, investors were paying the U.S. Federal government to warehouse their money in T-bills for an allotted time. This is the logical equivalent of renting a safety deposit box in a bank to store you money in. Why would ultra-rich and ultra-savvy investors ever do such a thing? There is only one answer: It is a vote of no confidence in the banks. Rich men do not trust banks with deposits larger than $250,000 because such deposits are not ensured and they fear the banks may be going out of business. They view Federal T-Bills as guaranteed and secure. This is the only logical explanation.
The logical implications are dire, and they should make your blood run cold. The Implication is that the ultra-rich still expect more banks to fold, and large fortunes stored there-in to be lost. They must not know who is solvent and who is not. Ergo they trust no one. This also implies corollaries about our level of transparency and accountability in finance. This should also make your blood run cold.
Now we hear tell of a simple Ponzi scheme run by--the former head of NASDAQ, and a member of the SEC--Bernard Madoff. This scheme bagged such famous names as HSBC, RBS, and Groupo Santander. $50 more billion has been lost, charities have closed, personal fortunes have been destroyed, but worse still is the level of distrust this has created in the money market at a time when we can ill afford more distrust. Worse still is the fact that many of Bernard Madoff's big customers, like Groupo Santander, knew his transactions could not net the level of profitability he reported. They guestimated that he was engaged in another form of illegal insider trading called 'Front Running', and they fully accepted him on that basis because they believed they were making money.
The prime is at 1% and the Fed is ready to cut that rate in half. That doesn't give them much room left for cuts. Many astute observes have asked what the Fed will do if this latest half-point cut does not work. The answer is: Monetary Easing. This is the last tool left in the box. It is the nuclear option.
What is Monetary Easing? It means the Treasury is going to print a ton of money, and flood us up to our waists in dollar bills. In three years time this will produce double-digit inflation, but in the short run it might unfreeze the credit system. Underscore the word 'might'. This action will prove that Keynes was right: In the long run we are all dead.
The problem is that {lately} the value of the dollar has been crumbling. The dollar surged, strangely enough, in the month of September as the banking crisis broke out. The Dollar made a big move against the Euro, going from 1.54 to 1.25. It improved against 15 major world currencies, as well as commodities like Gold and Oil. Now, in the past week or so, the Dollar is pulling back. Already the Euro has recovered to nearly 1.37. After reaching $40 per barrel, oil has risen as high as $47 and currently sits at $44.68.
If the Fed and Treasury chose to pursue a policy of Monetary Easing, the Dollar will crumble.
Which brings us to the biggest problem of all: What happens if our fiat money system collapses? As you know, our Dollar bill is backed by nothing more than the full faith and credit of the U.S. Federal government. Nothing more. How real is that? Real enough that investors would prefer to warehouse their dollars with the Fed rather than a bank. But how long with this condition persist?
This brings us to the biggest issue, and the subject of this post: Barak Obama has zero degrees of freedom in his upcoming presidency. As I have written before, HSBC predicts the current recession will last 5 years until September of 2013. This is provided the world doesn't end in 2012 as the Mayan calendar predicts.
If we have four lousy years of recession between 2008 and 2012, Barak will get fired. The people are irrational. They believe the president is the commander & chief of the economy. This is absolute bullshit, of course, but the people believe it. When the economy turns bad, they fire the president. Just ask George Bush I. He 93% approval rating at the end of Gulf-War I. He got fired a year or so later when it became clear we were in an Oil-Shock recession. This is the fickleness of the American People, of whom I am one.
If Barak wants to get re-elected, he has to find a way to restore growth, and make it clearly visible before 2012. Otherwise, he will be a one termer. When you are in this sort of a mess, how do you get out of it in 4 short years? The answer is that you do the very best and most complex linear programming you can and you pick every last optimal solution point. You try to bull’s-eye each one of those optimal solutions with pinpoint policies. In this scenario, you cannot afford to custom tailor a bill for even your best supporters. You must pick the optimal choice and not vary from it.
The logical implication is that those on the Left expecting highly-favorable and high-priced legislation are doomed to be disappointed by Barak Obama.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Results of my Survey of HDTVs, Part 1
So, I spent almost the entire weekend shopping for HDTVs this weekend. Not the thing one normally does during a great depression. Still, I trust the results of this survey will be of interest to you. As you know from my last blog, I wrote up a list of 5 contenders to the title. I saw them all this weekend. What were the findings?
1. Pioneer Elite Kuro is over-rated. I watched the better part of an entire John Mayer concert on this HDTV at the Sherman Oaks Best Buy. The concert was presented on Blu-Ray. The device was connected by HDMI. This is the best you can hope for in terms of picture. The picture was great. Was it utterly supreme? I seriously doubt it. This unit was also squared up with many LCDs & Plasmas from other vendors in another portion of the store. It did not fare particularly well against its competitors. Based on this show-case, I would not have purchased the Kuro Pro.
2. Mitsubishi’s LaserVue stinks. It looks like shit. This unit is all-hype. It has all the makings of a complete market failure. I saw this HDTV in two locations: Ken Crane’s big screen TVs in Encino and also Living Spaces in Van Nuys/Panorama City. To say the performance was underwhelming would be a massive understatement. The image was dim. The colors were blown out and extreme over-saturated. There was a massive screen-door effect evident on the unit at Ken Crane’s. Ken Crane’s used the Pirates of the Caribbean 1 (on Blu-Ray) to showcase this HDTV. The device was connected by HDMI. This is the best you can hope for in terms of picture. LaserVue did not perform well at all. It does not outperform the classic DLPs in any way shape or form. Mitsubishi’s own WD-73736 and WD-73835 are so much better in terms of image quality it is almost disgusting. I cannot imagine any rational actor laying down $7,000 for such an HDTV.
3. The LG 60PG60 is nice, but it did not seem to outperform many of the contenders around it. It looked as good as the Kuro… which is good, but again, there were better looking choices around it. If I had a complaint regarding this unit, it is only that the image brightness of this unit is not particularly good. Even after some fiddling, the image on this screen seemed darker than others. The salesman claimed that he always seemed to detect a mild Cheese-Cloth Effect on the LGs. I am not sure what that means. I will post up if I ever discover what a Cheese-Cloth effect is.
4. The Mitsubishi WD-73835 was a bit of a mixed bag. It looked sensational at Ken Crane’s where they had a Blu-Ray demo running on it. It looked pretty good, but not sensational, at Best Buy where it was displaying a composite signal that was split among many HDTVs. The smaller WD-65835 was showing X-Men III on Blu-Ray, and it looked fantastic. The main problem for the WD-73835 is the less expensive WD-73736… More on this later.
So the major story is that surprise contenders surfaced this weekend.
1. Panasonic Viera TH-65PZ850U: Don’t ask me why this unit is currently under the radar, but it certainly won’t remain there for long. This 65 inch plasma can be had for less than $5000 online, and I believe it out-performs the Pioneer Elite Kuro. It isn’t just larger. It is better. The 58 inch PZ850U was in close proximity to the Kuro, and it won the matchup head-to-head. I believe it looks better. This shocking little unit features a 480Hz refresher rate, meaning the screen is refreshed 20x per movie frame. It does not perform a 3:2 pulldown. The result is pretty dang sharp image at all times. It has a 1,000,000:1 dynamic contrast ratio. It is 3d ready. It accepts a standard Cat-6 Ethernet cable, and can be used to display large RSS feeds of news and other info if you like. Panasonic is promising 100,000 hours or 30 years of life for these units. My experience with Panasonic indicates that their products basically last forever. I had a Microwave from these guys that went 20 years before I finally gave it away, still working.
2. Mitsubishi WD-73736 DLP. Don’t ask me why Mitsubishi has deprecated this unit. Seeing it next to the Diamond Scan 835 and the pitiful LaserVue, I would say WD-73736 is Mitsubishi’s finest product. I was originally targeting this unit, but friends convinced me to look at the 835 series because “it is 3d ready.” I have never been a fan of 3d. I just saw Bolt in 3d with a couple of my Cousin’s kids. The 3d experience is not much to shout about. Still, I can see why it would be a cool thing to do at home, but is it worth the price? Is it worth a small declination in quality? Based on my eyes, WD-73736 beats WD-73835 in terms of image quality. Do I pay slightly more and accept slightly less to obtain 3d? This is dubious indeed. The price of the WD-73736 is lower than $2,500 at most online stores. You can have two of these HDTVs for the price of one Panasonic.
3. Samsung PN63A760. I was aware of this unit before going to the field, but it was not on my list due to a series of moderate to poor reviews. Chief among these was the one posted on CNET.com. I am beginning to doubt that the critics know what they are talking about. The PN63A750 is a marvelous HDTV. Perhaps not as good as Panasonic, but marvelous anyhow. Perhaps not as accurate as Kuro, but marvelous anyhow. It is 2 inches smaller than Panasonic, and $300-$400 cheaper at most locations. It is 3 inches larger than Kuro, and about $500 cheaper.
4. Samsung LN52A860. While I am not in the market for anything smaller than 60 inch, and generally don’t go for LCD, this proved to be an seductive little unit. At Best Buy, the HD-DVD of King Kong (2005) was shown on this unit. The main fight between King Kong & the twin T-Rexes realy showed off what this little puppy can do. There was no sign of motion blur. In 120Hz mode, the fast-action scenes were utterly smooth. This HDTV is also razor thin. If you are into the interior-decorator fashion design bullshit, this is the unit for you.
So there you have it, the initial results of my survey. I have not purchased yet, so the final verdict is not in. Right now it is looking like a two horse race between Mitsubishi WD-73736 and the Panasonic TH-65PZ850U. This is a very asymmetrical battle. There are big size, price, & weight differences here. WD-73736 is a victory for conservatism. Panasonic TH-65PZ850U is a victory for radicalism. I have to decide what I want to do. Do I keep doing what I am doing now {which is working very well} or do I get radical and try something completely different {just for the fun of it}?
Much will depend upon financing. I can buy either on a credit card. I do not want to go this route. As you well know, Credit Cards constitute expensive loans. Mitsubishi offers interest free financing, but it is not easy to qualify for this credit given the present turmoil in the banking sector. I am unaware of any special finance available for Panasonic HDTVs. I will let you know if there is any such thing.
1. Pioneer Elite Kuro is over-rated. I watched the better part of an entire John Mayer concert on this HDTV at the Sherman Oaks Best Buy. The concert was presented on Blu-Ray. The device was connected by HDMI. This is the best you can hope for in terms of picture. The picture was great. Was it utterly supreme? I seriously doubt it. This unit was also squared up with many LCDs & Plasmas from other vendors in another portion of the store. It did not fare particularly well against its competitors. Based on this show-case, I would not have purchased the Kuro Pro.
2. Mitsubishi’s LaserVue stinks. It looks like shit. This unit is all-hype. It has all the makings of a complete market failure. I saw this HDTV in two locations: Ken Crane’s big screen TVs in Encino and also Living Spaces in Van Nuys/Panorama City. To say the performance was underwhelming would be a massive understatement. The image was dim. The colors were blown out and extreme over-saturated. There was a massive screen-door effect evident on the unit at Ken Crane’s. Ken Crane’s used the Pirates of the Caribbean 1 (on Blu-Ray) to showcase this HDTV. The device was connected by HDMI. This is the best you can hope for in terms of picture. LaserVue did not perform well at all. It does not outperform the classic DLPs in any way shape or form. Mitsubishi’s own WD-73736 and WD-73835 are so much better in terms of image quality it is almost disgusting. I cannot imagine any rational actor laying down $7,000 for such an HDTV.
3. The LG 60PG60 is nice, but it did not seem to outperform many of the contenders around it. It looked as good as the Kuro… which is good, but again, there were better looking choices around it. If I had a complaint regarding this unit, it is only that the image brightness of this unit is not particularly good. Even after some fiddling, the image on this screen seemed darker than others. The salesman claimed that he always seemed to detect a mild Cheese-Cloth Effect on the LGs. I am not sure what that means. I will post up if I ever discover what a Cheese-Cloth effect is.
4. The Mitsubishi WD-73835 was a bit of a mixed bag. It looked sensational at Ken Crane’s where they had a Blu-Ray demo running on it. It looked pretty good, but not sensational, at Best Buy where it was displaying a composite signal that was split among many HDTVs. The smaller WD-65835 was showing X-Men III on Blu-Ray, and it looked fantastic. The main problem for the WD-73835 is the less expensive WD-73736… More on this later.
So the major story is that surprise contenders surfaced this weekend.
1. Panasonic Viera TH-65PZ850U: Don’t ask me why this unit is currently under the radar, but it certainly won’t remain there for long. This 65 inch plasma can be had for less than $5000 online, and I believe it out-performs the Pioneer Elite Kuro. It isn’t just larger. It is better. The 58 inch PZ850U was in close proximity to the Kuro, and it won the matchup head-to-head. I believe it looks better. This shocking little unit features a 480Hz refresher rate, meaning the screen is refreshed 20x per movie frame. It does not perform a 3:2 pulldown. The result is pretty dang sharp image at all times. It has a 1,000,000:1 dynamic contrast ratio. It is 3d ready. It accepts a standard Cat-6 Ethernet cable, and can be used to display large RSS feeds of news and other info if you like. Panasonic is promising 100,000 hours or 30 years of life for these units. My experience with Panasonic indicates that their products basically last forever. I had a Microwave from these guys that went 20 years before I finally gave it away, still working.
2. Mitsubishi WD-73736 DLP. Don’t ask me why Mitsubishi has deprecated this unit. Seeing it next to the Diamond Scan 835 and the pitiful LaserVue, I would say WD-73736 is Mitsubishi’s finest product. I was originally targeting this unit, but friends convinced me to look at the 835 series because “it is 3d ready.” I have never been a fan of 3d. I just saw Bolt in 3d with a couple of my Cousin’s kids. The 3d experience is not much to shout about. Still, I can see why it would be a cool thing to do at home, but is it worth the price? Is it worth a small declination in quality? Based on my eyes, WD-73736 beats WD-73835 in terms of image quality. Do I pay slightly more and accept slightly less to obtain 3d? This is dubious indeed. The price of the WD-73736 is lower than $2,500 at most online stores. You can have two of these HDTVs for the price of one Panasonic.
3. Samsung PN63A760. I was aware of this unit before going to the field, but it was not on my list due to a series of moderate to poor reviews. Chief among these was the one posted on CNET.com. I am beginning to doubt that the critics know what they are talking about. The PN63A750 is a marvelous HDTV. Perhaps not as good as Panasonic, but marvelous anyhow. Perhaps not as accurate as Kuro, but marvelous anyhow. It is 2 inches smaller than Panasonic, and $300-$400 cheaper at most locations. It is 3 inches larger than Kuro, and about $500 cheaper.
4. Samsung LN52A860. While I am not in the market for anything smaller than 60 inch, and generally don’t go for LCD, this proved to be an seductive little unit. At Best Buy, the HD-DVD of King Kong (2005) was shown on this unit. The main fight between King Kong & the twin T-Rexes realy showed off what this little puppy can do. There was no sign of motion blur. In 120Hz mode, the fast-action scenes were utterly smooth. This HDTV is also razor thin. If you are into the interior-decorator fashion design bullshit, this is the unit for you.
So there you have it, the initial results of my survey. I have not purchased yet, so the final verdict is not in. Right now it is looking like a two horse race between Mitsubishi WD-73736 and the Panasonic TH-65PZ850U. This is a very asymmetrical battle. There are big size, price, & weight differences here. WD-73736 is a victory for conservatism. Panasonic TH-65PZ850U is a victory for radicalism. I have to decide what I want to do. Do I keep doing what I am doing now {which is working very well} or do I get radical and try something completely different {just for the fun of it}?
Much will depend upon financing. I can buy either on a credit card. I do not want to go this route. As you well know, Credit Cards constitute expensive loans. Mitsubishi offers interest free financing, but it is not easy to qualify for this credit given the present turmoil in the banking sector. I am unaware of any special finance available for Panasonic HDTVs. I will let you know if there is any such thing.
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