My comments on the "Ram News" of the day

So I get an interesting piece of bacon mailed to my email box each morning. It's a news filter that tells me the major stories swirling about my Rams in each past 24 hour period. It seems to work well. There were so many fucked up reports in this morning's bacon, the intensity of the fuckedness was so great, that I felt the need to comment here.

Why the Rams should trade for Jason Campbell

What, are you crazy? You mean to tell me we should pass on Bradford in favor of Jason Campbell? Whilst I am not an advocate of taking Bradford, that has to be the most preposterous, ludicrous, observed proposition I have heard this season. Let me make it painfully clear: Jason Campbell has not been successful in this league. This is because he is the inverse of the gunslinger QB: He is a kid who is afraid to take a shot down field. He may have some athletic ability, but the fear factor will prevent him from ever succeeding in a clutch situation. There is a definitely lack of confidence and moxie in Campbell's constitution. That is why he's not a franchise QB.

I can completely understand why the Redskins would love to pawn him off on us, but this does not mean we should be stupid enough to take the deal. A small vote of confidence here for Sam: Given protection, Sam will be 5 to 10 times the QB Campbell is in the NFL. Never pass on Bradford for Campbell. That is a sure-fire looser.

Are the Rams thinking of trading down?

I hope so. The signals have it that we are still entertaining offers for the #1 pick. If a good deal presents itself, we should be ready to take it. I am still up for the notion of drafting a couple of offensive linemen and Tim Tebow. Notwithstanding Michael Lombardi's view that Tebow will creep up into the bottom of the 1st around.

You know me. I am one of Tebow's biggest advocates. Still, I don't see him reaching the 1st round. It would be an honor he deserves, but I have witnessed the tremendous bias against Spread and Spread-Option QBs in the NFL first hand. There is a knee-jerk, visceral reflex reaction against the notion of taking any Spread or Spread-Option QB high, and this applies no matter how good the kid is. As I write this, there are still many questioning Bradford's credentials because he comes from a Spread offense. I am amazed Bradford has overcome it to the extent he has.

I have also witnessed how powerful the bias is towards QBs who have been a Pro-System in college. So great is this bias that some folks are treating Mark Sanchez as the benchmark for rookie QBs now, and they are advocating Jimmy Clausen as a high first rounder. Both propositions strike me as preposterous. There was a 6 or 7 game stretch last season where Sanchez was awful and he look like a huge bust. The playoff run made people forgetful, but he did not enjoy a good rookie campaign. I have said many times that Clausen has "bust" tattooed on his forehead and everybody seems illiterate when around him. The Pro-System bias is real, it is tangible, it is powerful, and it is largely wrong.

Anyway, this is my short reasoning explaining why I doubt Tebow will make it to the 1st round. But I digress. In summary, I do hope we trade the pick, get a 2nd 2nd, and select Tebow.

With that said, I think the chances are remote. Many have evaluated this draft as I have. They believe the best QBs will be found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Our chances for doing a deal hinge on finding someone who is in love with Ndamukong Suh and/or Gerald McCoy. I don't know that this will happen.

Not so fast, says the Rams' GM: No decision on the Heisman QB

Several pieces from the associated press and others synthesis in the following manner:

1. Do the Rams really want Bradford?
2. Why are they offering a trade if they do?
3. Devaney has stated fairly emphatically that releasing Mar Bulger (on his birthday) does not constitute a lock on Bradford at the #1 slot.
4. Bradford declares that he and his agent are totally in the dark about what the Rams want. They have not tipped their hand to him at all.
5. The Rams are negotiating with Bradford, but so too are they negotiating with Suh, McCoy and Clausen.
6. It is wretched to think so, but is reasonable to suppose that if the Rams still hold the #1 when the countdown commences, they may chose the cheapest bargain. This may boil down to a money deal.

With that said Bernie Miklasz of the St, Louis Post-Dispatch tried to explode this notion a piece he penned this morning. You can read it here. He basically says the following.

1. Stop the charade
2. You ain't fooling anybody
3. It's obvious you love Bradford
4. You've done everything shy of filing personal adoption papers in court.
5. You had better protect this kid with a good offensive line.
6. Upgrade the receivers
7. Don't rush Bradford
8. Put Pat Shurmer in charge of Bradford's development

Bernie is in St. Louis. He supposedly has access to the organization. So too does D'Marco Farr. Both of these guys have turned around lately and are saying all the signals are towards Bradford at this point. I am going to have to trust them on this, but from where I sit, here in Los Angeles, they look mighty indecisive and willing to reconsider.

I don't want to digress much here, but I would dismiss the Pat Shurmer notion. Why do you have any confidence in that guy? What Quarterback did he ever develop? Donovan McNabb? Please... he predated Shurmer by a long shot. Kolb? Nah, I don't accept that as positive case yet. If he shows strong like Rodgers, perhaps I will. I he does a great job with Bradford, perhaps I will.

Right now I want him fired, and I want Mike Leach in charge.

Rumors of Possible Haynesworth Trade Not Rumors

Is a trade for Haynesworth in the works for St. Louis? No, these are not rumors, just bullshit. John Clayton of ESPN threw that one out, supposedly... although I did not hear him do so on the air.

Look, Haynesworth is an over-paid prima donna who doesn't want to play nose tackle, although he did precisely this with the Titans. The guy did not perform well last season with the Redskins, and this is why they are shopping him. He isn't worth the $100m contract Snyder gave him; still one of the most preposterous moves I've seen in free agency. Several experts, including Mike Mayock, said he was a system player, who owed much of his greatness to the scheme he was in. They didn't think he would fair well away from Tennessee. Boy does that seem prescient now! Haynesworth did not do well away from Tennessee.

Now you have the complete task of explaining to me why the Rams, a team with cash-flow problems in the middle of an ownership change, would acquire a $45m expensive rookie QB and a $100m overpaid prima donna DT in the same season? The #1 pick is already described by many as a money-pit. Why complicate the situation by seeking Haynesworth's $100m contract also?

Are you stumped yet? So am I. I do not believe this plan is economically feasible for the Rams at this stage of the game. Ergo it is bullshit.

Dilfer says it would be a catastrophic mistake for the Rams to select Bradford

My home-boy Trent Dilfer was asked to comment on Devaney's statement that selecting Bradford is no sure-thing. Dilfer applauded this comment, and made a few controversial statements. What were they?

1. Bradford is not close to being the #1 athlete in this draft. I would accept that statement.
2. Bradford faced a lot of soft defenses in the Big-12. It is an interesting point. In the 2009 BCS game he faced a hard-ass SEC defense in Florida, and put 14 points on the board, not 60.
3. Clausen is the most pro-ready. Ooopss! I knew he had to fuck up somewhere. Trent, quit injecting Fentanyl into your veins. Don't make me send you to rehab. Come out of narcotic induced delusions and read the tattoo on Clausen's forehead that says "BUST". I am telling you now that this kid is never going to make it in the NFL. You will all be scratching you heads in a few years saying "What happened?" You criteria is wrong. The pro-system doesn't predict shit. It is a meaningless indication of nothing in particular.
4. Colt McCoy may be the kid who winds up having the best pro career. It is an interesting idea. I have mulled that notion over several times. Colt looks damn good to me. I am still betting on Tebow, but my secondary bet is on McCoy. Implicit within this declaration is the notion that the pro-system is a meaningless indication of nothing in particular. Colt is a spread QB.

I don't agree with Trent's somewhat hysterical use of the term 'Catastrophic'. I do believe Bradford will become a great passer... give a steel-reinforced concrete offensive line like that of the Jets. We do not have such a line, ergo we run the risk of making him a medical bust. Even in Bernie's article, I still see major cases of denial about the state of our offensive line, which is still 3 players away from being solid. Bradford is a terrific kid, but with such poor protection, he is in for great difficulty.

My take on the McNabb trade and the NFC East

So, I have to eat some crow. The McNabb trade did happen. You punks in the media are lucky. I was going to beat you down at the start of the 2010 season. You have avoided an ass-whipping of historic proportions. I wanted to be noted that Mike Florio is still a liar, and he was totally off base. The truth has come out and the Rams were never in the hunt for McNabb. His talk of "...McNabb being in St. Louis as early as Friday [several weeks ago]" was utterly wacko.

So what's my take on this trade?

1. The Eagles were crazy to deal McNabb for an unproven commodity like Kevin Kolb.
2. The Eagles' situation is not comparable to the Favre+Packer situation. McNabb is a lot younger than Favre, and he never did the "I'm retiring/I'm back" disco dance.
3. The Eagles will now enter a rebuilding/transition phase. They will win less games not more. The Eagles were 11-5 last season, I doubt they will be close to that this season. Perhaps they will finish 8-8.
4. Consider the Packers. They had a super QB sitting on the bench in Aaron Rodgers. Nevertheless, a team that was 13-3 in 2007 fell to 6-10 in 2008 largely because of the transition. Of course, the defense had much to do with it, but the Packer offense was not nearly as explosive in 2008 as 2007.
5. Do you think Kolb is as good as Rodgers? The Philly homer may want to say yes. The objective observer from the West does not think so. Rodgers may very well prove himself the best QB in the league this season, provided he stays healthy. He looks like one of the most deadly QBs in the league from my point of view. If the Packers can just cut the damn sacks down from 51 to 30, Rodgers may well take the MVP title from Peyton Manning this season. I seriously doubt Kolb is close to that level. Maybe I am wrong, but in my experience, a QB that good rarely comes along. I doubt we will see two such powerful QBs emerge so quickly in succession.
6. If Kolb is substantially less a QB than Rodgers, expect the Eagles transition to be worse than the Packers.
7. Dealing your QB within the division is stupid and borderline suicidal. Take it from me, a Ram fan. We dealt Jim Everett--a QB who lead a parallel life to McNabb in many respects--inside our division to the New Orleans Saints. Everett crucified every time we played against him. He knew our defense inside and out. He knew who was weak. He knew how to burn him. He knew all this from countless hours of scrimmaging against our defense, and hear the DC complain about guys.
8. Consider Sonny Jurgensen, a distant relative of mine on my mama's side of the family. The Eagles dealt him to the Redskins and he immediately threw 5 TD passes against the Eagles at the first opportunity. Believe me, history repeats itself: The first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.
9. Consider what Favre is doing to the Packers right now. I realize that Jared Allen was a major key to victory in both those games, but they would not have out-scored the powerful Packer offense without Favre in either case.
10. Consider the fact that Shanahan is now in Washington. Sorry to inform you of this, but Shanahan is better than Reid. It isn't just because of the 2 rings that I say that. They already have a fairly nasty defense. Now Shanahan and McNabb are going to boot-strap his offense into the picture. You have much to be concerned about.
11. The Eagles now have a lot of picks, but this has been the case for the past several years. The pattern is pretty clear. Most of the offensive choices do well. Most of the defensive choices don't. There are exceptions on both sides, but this is the pattern. If the pattern holds, a significant number of 2010 picks will be wasted on defensive players who don't pan out.

In conclusion, I see the East as a two-horse race. The Giants are rebuilding their defense, but they will chase the Cowboys from behind. The Cowboys now have to be the prohibitive favorite to win the East. If the Cowboys don't win the East, the 2010 Cowboys will be an utter disgrace to the lone star of Texas. If they don't win its a shame.

I expect some back-biting, recriminations and drama once the Eagles get into the heavy water of 2010. I wish you well, but I think you just jammed your dick in the door and slammed it. Like Mayock says "Be careful of what you wish for, because you just might get it."

The Redskins and young quarterbacks

It sucks to be a young QB around the Washington Redskins these days. Consider this.

Colt McCoy reported to Redskins HQ yesterday for his pre-draft workout. This is the very day the whole compound is buzzing about the arrival of Donovan McNabb. Of all the Pyhrric and pointless exercises ever done... The Redskins don't even have a 2nd rounder to take him. Neither do they have a 3rd rounder, not that Colt would fall that far. Colt must have been scratching his head a little. He was practicing his interview skills, I guess. I guess it's also a chance to rub elbows.

Now we have Sam Bradford visiting the Redskins today. Today is the day of the McNabb news conference at Redskin HQ. I feel bad for Sam. We are almost certain that the Redskins will not be dealing for him on draft day. Sam wanted to play for Mike Shanahan. He was hoping to be Mike's next protégé prodigy. Perhaps this will make him feel just a bit better about the Ram opportunity.

When NFL Network draft scout Charles Davis was asked why the Redskins would continue with the process of interviewing these young QBs he simply said: "These were non-refundable airplane tickets. They had to go through with it."

Later, Jason La Canfora spun the silly yarn that "You have to due your due diligence; you never know when these kids might come up in free agency."

Consider the most unhappy of them all. Whilst the Redskins welcome McNabb and workout out erstwhile prospects, Jason Campbell is watching daytime TV at home and awaiting his fate. Reportedly, he had a swanky breakfast with Shanahan who instructed him to stay away from the Redskins' compound. You know that's not nice. That's as close to "your fired" as it gets in the NFL. A number of deals are in progress right now. At this point, nobody knows which scenario will be the one. The Redskins will try to get this deal done before the draft, but it is absolutely clear that Campbell is not a part of the Redskins' plan now.

The Redskins are going to have some irritated young QBs to deal with, not to mention the Eagles.

Crap on the Titans

I am so disappointed. I was so looking forward to the Clash of the Titans this year. This is movie is bad, and worse than they say it is. This movie is currently pulling a T-Meter score of 31%, and I am surprised it is that high. At 31%, this movie is overrated. The production team fucked up, from the top to the bottom, they fucked up. Writers, directors, editors, effects teams, they all fucked up. I was pissed when I left the theater.

So where did they go wrong? We should be reminded of Easy Reader's... er... Morgan Freeman's analogy for movie project failure. When asked if he was surprised that "The Bonfire of the Vanities" drowned in a river of blood, he simply nodded his head "no". When asked why he was not surprised, he paused for a moment and said "When an airplane crashes, the most frequent finding of the investigators is that the catastrophe was a result of a series of mishaps along the way."

There certain were a series of mishaps along the way to releasing Clash of the Titans (2010). There were a series of bad decisions that led up to this disaster:

1. They decided to re-write the myth of Perseus.
2. They decided to make this a secular humanist polemic of man vs the gods.
3. They chose a really crappy writer or writers.
4. The decided to modify Greek mythology to make the Kraken a child of Hades, rather than a Titan imprisoned and controlled by Poseidon.
5. They decided to go with a coup d'état theme in which Hades wanted to overthrow Zeus.
6. They chose a French martial arts movie director with little visual effects movie experience.
7. The crafted an anti-climactic ending in which the Kraken goes down quickly and easily.
8. They shot this movie in flat 2d and tried to extrapolate a 3d layered film from it. There are no 3d effects worth mentioning in this film.

These are just a few of the problems. There are many more problems, story-wise. The worst problems are found in the editing. There are unforgivable breaks and bad cuts in the action found in this film. One moment they are in a crisis, drowning in a ship wreck, the next moment they are on the beach. No explanation is given. The crisis just ended, and you have no idea why. There are many bad cuts like this found in this film.

Skip it. Skip it entirely. This is a pure waste of time.

I can't get Bradford, and I don't want Clausen. I'll take McNabb

The shocker has happened. Philly traded McNabb to the Redskins on Easter Sunday 2010 for the #37 pick in the 2010 draft, a #3 in the 2011, and a conditional #4 in 2011. The conditional pick can rise if the Redskins win more games, posting a better record. Most Philly fans seem glad that the McNabb era is over. They are also shocked that the trade happened inside the division. They seem to be happy that the Kolb era will commence now. They are unhappy that they will face McNabb in a Redskin uniform twice per year for the indefinite future.

CBS Draft Central was the first to publish the opinion that the real looser in this trade is Jimmy Clausen, not Jason Campbell. Campbell was expected to go elsewhere this season. This is only a confirmation of that notion. Clausen was thought, by some, to be the guy Shanahan would develop for the Redskin's future. It is pretty damn clear that Clausen slides past #4 in this season's draft. I believe it is extremely unlikely that Holmgren will select him. Ergo his very first possible landing point is at #9 with the Buffalo Bills.

Pray for the Bills' sake that the GM does not try to take the cheese out of the mouse trap.

This brings us to the Redskins feelings about this. Many D.C. fans are expressing subdued jubilation. They believe the Eagles, an arch nemesis and tormentor, will now spiral downward. A city which is 90% Black is happy to receive (arguably) the greatest Black QB ever. We should leave some room here for Hall of Famer Warren Moon.

On the other hand, Redskin fans are all-to-familiar with the pattern of grabbing over-priced washed-up veterans who under-perform when Dan Snyder gives them fat contracts. This is not just an artifact/relic of George Allen and the 1970s skins. It is a persistent pattern that continues to this day. Many of these fans had already pinned their hopes on Jimmy Clausen as their QB of the future. Shanahan is known as one of those few men in league qualified to evaluate and coach the QB. They hopped he would use his powers to groom Clausen into the Redskins' franchise QB for the next 10+ seasons.

This brings us to Shanahan. Nobody believes the Skins are taking a QB with that massive #4 pick in the 2010 Draft. Nobody believes the Skins are going to do a deal with the Rams for the #1 pick. That ship has sailed out of the harbor. Can anyone explain to me why Shanahan would want to pass on a QB in this year's draft?

• It is possible that he was out-voted. Bruce Allen and Synder could have pushed this deal through.
• It is possible that he felt Bradford was unobtainable. The Rams will take him or demand too much for him.
• It is possible he was concerned about Bradford's durability. The Redskins allowed more sacks (46) than the Ram (44) in 2009. That is a sad, sad commentary. It should be noted that Green Bay allowed the greatest number of sacks (51) in 2009.
• It is possible that Shanahan just didn't see what he wanted in Clausen.

As I mentioned in title line: I can't get Bradford, and I don't want Clausen. I'll take McNabb. Maybe this is Shanahan's decision tree? Maybe this was the read progression?

There we have it again folks. Shanahan and Holmgren are arguably the best QB developers in the league right now. There are a few others. Andy Reid and Mike Martz are two more. I seriously doubt Charley Weis is one of them. What do we say about Clausen now that Shanahan and Holmgren have apparently voted no-confidence in the kid?

Maybe I am right and maybe Kiper Jr. is wrong? Maybe? Maybe McShay is right and Kiper is wrong? Maybe?

Watch for Shanahan and Holmgren to go after Jevan Snead. The kid is going to be cheap, and he has real potential.

I demand a recount! Quarterbacks in the 1st round over the past 30 years.

I made the following statement many times on my blog: Quarterbacks selected in the 1st round have only a 33% chance of success in the NFL. This is based on the assessment that 33% of the QBs selected in the 1st round over the past 30 years were ultimately successful in the NFL.

Well, I am afraid I must print a retraction. I was wrong. It's worse than I originally thought. I collected the data afresh, and reconsidered the information I found there. After serious consideration, and a fresh recount, the score is as follows. Quarterbacks were selected between 1979 and 2007. Of those 67, 20 were ultimately successful, 39 were busts, 8 were fair-to-middlin' journeymen in the league. This means the following:

• 29.85% of the quarterbacks selected in the 1st round were successful
• 58.21% were all-out busts
• 11.94% were middle-of-the-road journeymen

This is bad, very bad. I don't wish to labor the point anymore. Instead, I want to publish the raw table of information, so you yourself can consider the merits of my assessment.

#	Name	School	Year	Team	Overall	Rating
1	Jack Thompason	Washington State	1979	Bengals	3	Bust
2	Phil Simms	Morehead State	1979	Giants	7	Success
3	Steve Fuller	Clemson	1979	Chiefs	23	Bust
4	Marc Wilson	BYU	1980	Raiders	15	Bust
5	Mark Malone	Arizona State	1980	Steelers	28	Bust
6	Rich Campbell	California	1981	Packers	6	Bust
7	Dave Wilson	Illinois	1981	Saints	Supplemental	Bust
8	Art Schlichter	Ohio State	1982	Colts	4	Bust
9	Jim McMahon	BYU	1982	Bears	5	Success
10	John Elway	Stanford	1983	Colts	1	Success
11	Todd Blackledge	Penn State	1983	Chiefs	7	Bust
12	Jim Kelly	Miami	1983	Bills	14	Success
13	Tony Eason	Illinois	1983	Patriots	15	Bust
14	Ken O'Brien	UC Davis	1983	Jets	24	Success
15	Dan Marino	Pittsburg	1983	Dolphins	27	Success
16	Bernie Kosar	Miami	1985	Browns	Supplemental	Success
17	Jim Everett	Purdue	1986	Oilers	3	Success
18	Chuck Long	Iowa	1986	Lions	12	Bust
19	Vinny Testaverde	Miami	1987	Buccaneers	1	Middle
20	Kelly Stouffer	Colorado State	1987	Cardinals	6	Bust
21	Chris Miller	Oregon	1987	Falcons	13	Success
22	Jim Harbaugh	Michigan	1987	Bears	26	Middle
23	Troy Aikman	UCLA	1989	Cowboys	1	Success
24	Steve Walsh	Miami	1989	Cowboys	Supplemental	Bust
25	Timm Rosenbach	Washington State	1989	Cardinals	Supplemental	Bust
26	Jeff George	Illinois	1990	Colts	1	Bust
27	Andre Ware	Houston	1990	Lions	7	Bust
28	Dan McGwire	San Diego State	1991	Seahawks	16	Bust
29	Todd Marinovich	USC	1991	Raiders	24	Bust
30	David Klingler	Houston	1992	Bengals	6	Bust
31	Tommy Maddox	UCLA	1992	Broncos	25	Bust
32	Dave Brown	Duke	1992	Giants	Supplemental	Bust
33	Drew Bledsoe	Washington State	1993	Patriots	1	Success
34	Rick Mirer	Notre Dame	1993	Seahawks	2	Bust
35	Heath Shuler	Tennessee	1994	Redskins	3	Bust
36	Trent Dilfer	Fresno State	1994	Buccaneers	6	Middle
37	Steve McNair	Alcorn State	1995	Oilers	3	Success
38	Kerry Colins	Penn State	1995	Panthers	5	Middle
39	Jim Druckenmiller	Virgina Tech	1997	49ers	26	Bust
40	Peyton Manning	Tennessee	1998	Colts	1	Success
41	Ryan Leaf	Washington State	1998	Chargers	2	Bust
42	Tim Couch	Kentucky	1999	Browns	1	Bust
43	Donovan McNabb	Syracuse	1999	Eagles	2	Success
44	Akili Smith	Oregon	1999	Bengals	3	Bust
45	Daunte Culpepper	Central Florida	1999	Vikings	11	Bust
46	Cade McNown	UCLA	1999	Bears	12	Bust
47	Chad Pennington	Marshall	2000	Jets	18	Middle
48	Michael Vick	Virgina Tech	2001	Falcons	1	Middle
49	David Carr	Fresno State	2002	Texans	1	Bust
50	Joey Harrington	Oregon	2002	Lions	3	Bust
51	Patrick Ramsey	Tulane	2002	Redskins	32	Bust
52	Carson Palmer	USC	2003	Bengals	1	Middle
53	Byron Leftwich	Marshall	2003	Jaguars	7	Bust
54	Kyle Boller	California	2003	Ravens	19	Bust
55	Rex Grossman	Florida	2003	Bears	22	Bust
56	Eli Manning	Ole Miss	2004	Chargers	1	Success
57	Philip Rivers	North Carolina State	2004	Giants	4	Success
58	Ben Roethlisberger	Miami of Ohio	2004	Steelers	11	Success
59	J.P. Losman	Tulane	2004	Bills	22	Bust
60	Alex Smith	Utah	2005	49ers	1	Bust
61	Aaron Rodgers	California	2005	Packers	24	Success
62	Jason Campbell	Alburn	2005	Redskins	25	Bust
63	Vince Young	Texas	2006	Titans	3	Success
64	Matt Leinart	USC	2006	Cardinals	10	Middle
65	Jay Cutler	Vanderbilt	2006	Broncos	11	Success
66	JaMarcus Russell	LSU	2007	Raiders	1	Bust
67	Brady Quinn	Notre Dame	2007	Browns	22	Bust
						39	20	8
						58.21%	29.85%	11.94%

Honestly, I see only one disputable case on this list. I rank Carson Palmer as a middle guy. Bengals fans would complain. The fact is that he sat for year to start his career. Things looked good for a short time. Then the knee injury struck. Things have not been the same since. The Bengals' passing attack fell precipitously last year. Many are asking questions.

Less than zero credence?

Last night on ESPN's NFL Live, the guys discussed Coach Bill Bellichick's dinner with Tim Tebow. Bellichick heaped praise on Tebow afterward. Just what does this mean? Does this mean the Patriots will be drafting Tebow and grooming him as Brady's eventual replacement in their Spread-like offense?

Marcellus Wiley and Mark Sclereth didn't think so at all. Wiley said that pre-draft official visits should be given less zero credence when it comes to assessing a teams interest. He sited his own story as a perfect example. The Bills drafted him site-unseen in the 2nd round. They never spoke with him prior to the draft. They didn't come to his ProDay. They never called his agent. They never invited him to Bills' HQ. They never even had the team doctor look at him. They just drafted him. This is the clandestine nature of the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

The received wisdom is that the 30 official visits are mostly burned on subterfuge & decoys. Teams are playing the cards close to the vest, not showing their hands. A nice pro-point can be found in last year's draft. The Rams burned one of their official 30 team visits on Mark Sanchez. We signaled that we were interested. We passed him by. Everybody knew we were just manipulating the Jets.

I would add a couple of modifiers on this. Teams do scout their first rounders with these offiicial team visits, especially when they are destined to become super-high first rounders. If you look at every #1 overall pick for the past 30 seasons, he visited the team that drafted him. He might not have played for that team, but he visited with the team that drafted him.

The second modifier I would tag on is that teams are quite deceptive about their 2nd and 3rd round preferences. Almost every team will get a crack at your 2nd and 3rd round selections once or twice. All of your divisional opponents will have an opportunity to practice the strategy of denial. The Patriots have many enemies in the AFC. There is no profit in tipping your hand to the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Colts and Chargers. Some of these teams would be inclined to take a prospect off the board if they knew the Patriots were interested.

Consider this example. Suppose the Patriots are seriously considering making a small move up to acquire Earl Thomas or Eric Berry on draft day. It could happen. The Patriots need a lot of defensive help. They have not replaced Rodney Harrison. Suppose Berry goes quickly as expected. Strange picks happen. The Raiders do something stupid. Earl Thomas begins to slide. The Steelers are on the clock with #17. They hear the Patriots are negotiating with the Falcons, and they have heard the name Earl Thomas in the mix. The Steelers have a strong need for a corner, and somebody who can sub for Troy Palamalu. They are also sweet on Maurkice Pouncey. Knowing the Patriots are making a move to acquire Thomas, would the Steelers fill their need in the Secondary first? I suspect they would. You screw the Patriots and fill your need at the same time. This is a double bonus.

This is why there is so much stealth and deception surrounding later picks. This is why you guard those 2nd rounders particularly close to the vest.

So what does this principle indicate for a Ram fan? Don't place too much credence in Colt McCoy's visit. Also, don't place much credence in the Rams' apparent total lack of interest in Tim Tebow. I know for a fact we are seriously considering Sam Bradford, and at the same time I know for a fact that we would deal that pick in a split-instant if a good trade is offered. It could go either way on draft day. If we deal that pick, we are looking for a QB in the 2nd round or later; most probably the 2nd round. Suppose this is a Marcellus Wiley situation? Who do we take at #33 or #37 or #38?

If you doubt this scenario, consider this video, just posted today where Sam Bradford indicates that the Rams have not tipped their hand to him, and he is still in the dark about where he is going to go come draft day.

On the one hand, I am disappointed that we are deceptively signalling Colt McCoy. The Rams did not attend the UT ProDay yesterday, which I consider a mistake. There were a lot of prospects there to see. Now we are using one of our 30 visits on a presumptive 2nd round pick? Under the Schlereth-Willey law, what does this tell you? We're wasting Colt's time. We're just playing the game. This is unfortunate. Colt McCoy is a serious prospect, and deserves some respect as such. I do like the kid a hell of a lot.

However, you know I like Tebow just a little bit better. Since Tebow is a presumptive 2nd rounder, I am glad we are signalling no interest at this moment. Things still might go well for us.