Sunday, February 7, 2010

I told you... damn it!

Right now I am pretty euphoric. I am overjoyed that the Saints have won it. I am NFC guy. The Saints used to be in West with the Rams. I alway felt bad for them back in the days when they were the Aints. I like the underdog. I also like Dome teams that play aggressive and spectacular offense. This precept qualified both competitors in this Super Bowl, in my book, but the Saints had an advantage.

Just to be clear: I was never against the Colts. I have a ton of respect for them, and greatly admire their great style of play. I would have been okay with it if the Colts had won. I just really wanted New Orleans to win. I would have felt terrible for them if they had lost. I feel bad for the Colts, but they very well could come back and win it next season. Just remember: They get Anthony Gonzalez back next season. Do you want to talk about having way too many weapons on the field? Jesus!

Congrats to the Saints. I am savoring it. I wish I had some vacation time and some money. I would love to travel down there for the party and enjoy it with you.

So the PredictionMachine.com 10% scenario came to pass. The Saints won it by 14 points. A little known corner intercepted Manning and returned it for the TD on what should have been the game tying score. I think I mentioned that as a possible Squirek Factor. Coach Dungy hyper-extended one point of data and broke his neck. Las Vegas will now collect 68.5% of all the money bet on the Super Bowl. They only need to pay out 31.5% of the shares. I told you the Vegas lines were fucking lying to you, you dumb bastards!

I did pretty well, personally. Although I did not bet on the game, I called this matchup in preseason and I've been declaring a Super Bowl victory for the Saints for the past 9 weeks. This should have been obvious to anybody who evaluates teams, and isn't overly awed by mystique. It was obvious to me that the Saints were a beautiful and very well put together football team. They played great team ball all season long. If you dynastanalingus commentators weren't so obsessed with the Saints' history of futility, you would have recognized that 2009 was their year also.

One thing I want to cuss the media out for: This game did not change my opinion of Peyton Manning at all. He is still the same great Peyton Manning he was before the game, and he may well go down in history as the greatest QB of all time, regardless of this game. This loss does not change his status in my estimation. Far too much weight is laid on these Super Bowl victories. Don't hyper-extend one point of data and break your neck.

In the meanwhile, I am very very happy that the Saints won. In my mind, I am partying with you guys in New Orleans. Wish I could be there with yah!

Saturday, February 6, 2010

The Godfather 1 on Blu-Ray

Yesterday, Fry's Electronics offered us our choice of 3 out of 5 members of the Paramount Sapphire collection at an insane discount price. I already owned Gladiator and Braveheart, so I took the other three: Godfather 1, Godfather 2, and Forrest Gump. My final, walk-out-door, price was just $43 for these three Gold-winners on Blu-Ray. I was fairly ecstatic our my purchase.

I decided to plug in Godfather 1 just to have a look at the quality of the restoration and transfer. I had no intention of watching the three hour epic in full last night. Well, I got sucked in. I watched the whole damn thing straight through in one sitting for the first time since around 1996. It's been 14 years since the last time, so my memory had faded on several points. As was the case with Logan's Run. It is interesting to come back to a piece after so many years, and see how you feel about it. So what are my thoughts?
  1. I still don't believe that this is the best movie of all time. I still give that award to Dr. Strangelove.
  2. I still don't believe that this is Francis Ford Coppola's best film of all time. I give that award to Apocalypse Now.
  3. With that said it is a fantastic movie, and rightly won best picture of 1972. It was probably under-awarded as it obtained only three Oscar-wins. They probably should have won a few more than that.
  4. I still believe that The Godfather is a highly romanticized rendition of La Cosa Nostra. This is the way Wise Guys would love to be portrayed, and this is the way they would like to think of themselves. However, it is sanitized, scaled-down, and soft-pitched on the violence and ugliness of organized crime.
  5. For a more realistic portrayal of La Cosa Nostra, you still need to look towards Martin Scorsese's Goodfellas.
I am impressed about how clear the theme of this movie is after so many years. When I was younger, I did not detect a clear cut focal theme. I just thought it was an epic story about a key moment in Mob history. Yes, that is true, but there is a sharper focal point than that.

The Godfather takes place in the immediate aftermath of World War II. The Godfather is Vito Corleone, a first generation Sicilian immigrant to New York city who set up a large and powerful Mafia family that runs Gambling, Prostitution, and smuggling in the Eastern United States. His daughter Connie is about to be married. His son Michael, the white sheep of the family, has returned home from WWII.

Unbeknownst to all at the wedding party, the New York Mafia is headed for a full-scale war over the issue of Narcotics; China White Heroine from Turkey to be more specific. The Godfather is against this LOB, believing it is a dirty and dangerous trade that will cost him his political and judicial allies. Everybody else, including two of his sons, believes there is more earning potential in Narcotics than any other single line of work. The five families of New York want to deal, but they need the Godfather's political protection to open up this new business. He refuses. A war ensues.

The absolute focal point of this movie is Michael Corleone, the man destined to be the next Godfather. As we begin this movie, he is a squeaky-clean Ivy League graduate, Marine Corp Infantry Captain, decorated for valor in battle during WWII. Michael knows everything about the family. He is ashamed of his family, and his family business, even though he loves them. He stays at a distance. Unknown to him, Michael has his father's blessing. Pop hopes Michael will become the first Governor or Senator from his family. He is very proud of Michael. He never wanted Michael to be in the family business.

The absolute pivotal point of the movie is the transformation of Michael Corleone's character. The war changes him completely. The moment his father is shot, and forces inside the police conspire to assassinate him, all kinds of things begin simmering up inside Michael's soul. In a matter of a few short days, the highly intelligent Ivy Leaguer, and the decorated Marine Infantry Captain begins using all his talents to help his family win the war.

Michael has a number of bitter moments on the way to victory in this mob war. The attempted murder on his father is the first. The murder of his brother, with his brother-in-law's complicity, is the second. The final burn is the murder of his Sicilian bride, Apolonia, in a car-bombing.

As his brother Sonny dies, it becomes clear that Michael is the only one smart enough to inherit his father's throne and run the family business. But is he tough enough? Is he ruthless enough? Is he a strategist? Can he trap his enemies? Can he be a wartime boss?

Shortly before the movie ends Michael answers all these questions. He accurately ferrets out all of his enemies. He lays out a brilliant plan for murdering them all. He executes the plan without a hitch. Everybody who opposed the Godfather during the Narcotics war is dead at the end of the movie. He settled all of the Family's accounts in a single day. He consolidates all power in his hands, making his family the most powerful underworld force once again.

It turns out that the decorated Marine Corp Captain was more that strategic enough, more than ruthless enough, and more than violent enough to kill all of his opponents. He is a far more terrifying figure by the end of this movie than the sentimental Vito, or the hot-headed Sonny ever were. He's cool. He's calculating as hell. He is ruthless as hell. He stops at nothing. He convinces us that he will do anything necessary to win.

The cold chill you get at the end of the movie is palpable. Michael is almost a type of frog prince. You had no idea that this squeaky-clean Harvard kid had it in him. The moment he is kissed by Mafia war, he suddenly and abruptly transforms into a much more ruthless warchief than his father. The reason cold chills happen is that it is so believable.

Why did I believe it? I picked up on things watching this Blu-Ray, things that I had never noticed before. I noticed the Marine Corp emblem on Michael's uniform. I don't think there was a single word of dialog which stated that he was a Marine. You had to see the logo. I noticed the crossed rifle emblem on his uniform. This signifies 0700 Infantry. I don't think there is a single line of dialog in the movie which stated that Michael was an Infantry Captain. You had to see the logo. Being a Marine Infantry captain in WWII means being on the beach and in the jungle. The year is 1946, signifying the end of WWII. The implication is strong that Michael fought the Japanese. The life of the Marine Infantry fighting the Japanese in WWII was absolutely brutal. If Michael was a decorated war hero, you can be assured that he saw murderous combat.

Noticing these things, it becomes obvious why Michael would make a much better and tougher wartime Don than his brother Sonny. He is the one who has seen the real shit. He is the only family member to wage real war. He has seen and done things most Mafia thugs can't imagine. The intellectual power needed to graduate from Harvard doesn't hurt Michael any either. This unassuming, humble, and squeaky clean guy is a facade. He makes his other brothers look weak and stupid in comparison. Once his family survival instincts are flipped on, Michael becomes a terrifying force to reckon with.

It is great to see this movie restored on Blu-Ray. You should see this. My one and only bitter complaint about this disc is that they were unable to come up with a state-of-the-art 5.1 surround mix for the movie. The Godfather was recorded in 100% pure mono. There are no source tracks left for remixing. They were able to digitally sample the sound track at 24/96 and put that on 6 channels, but what you are hearing is always mono sound.

Let's reason about significance of Vegas for just moment

I happen to know a lot of betting men at work and through friends. They, like most others, have been swept up in the hoopla about the Colts during this past week. They have contributed towards that strange figure everybody is talking about: 68.5% of all SB44 betting money has been placed on the Colts.

I am proud to say that I have deeply troubled these betting men with my assessment of two great computer simulations of the game.

  1. The EA sports Madden 2010 simulation which picks the Saints to win 35-31
  2. The PredictionMachine.com simulation which says that there is a 79.4% chance that the Colts will not cover the 4.5 point spread. {Remember, the Colts have to win by 5 or more points, or you loose money.}
What ever in the world do these two points mean? First, let's recognize the most obvious fact: If Colts should happen to win by 5 or 6 points, there will be a financial bloodbath in Las Vegas. 68.5% of the betting shares will have to be paid out. This is at a time when Vegas is deeply injured by recession.

Fortunately for Vegas, the odds of a financial Bloodbath are very low. According to the most Colt-friendly computer projections, there is a 79.4% chance that that Colts will not cover the spread. Let's not forget that the Madden 2010 simulation picks the Saints to win straight up.

Just to refresh you memory a bit, PredictionMachine.com stated that the Colts won only approximately 51% of the matches in their 50,000 match series. The Saints won approximately 49% of the time. Less than 1 point per game differentiated these two teams, when all scores were averaged. In 60% of their simulated victories, the Colts failed to cover the spread of 4.5 points. I remind you that this is the most Colt-friendly interpretation of the performance data you will find.

The correct interpretation of this data is as follows: This is an unbelievably tight match up of equally great, and similar, football teams. There is a razor thin difference between them. This match could go either way, depending on the breaks. The odds of a laugh-in or a blow-out are extremely low. There are really only two ways we can see a blow-out in this game:
  1. Serious injuries would have to be sustained early by one side.
  2. One side would have to come out and lay an egg, really stinking up the joint with serious errors.
Most experts and the software do not predict either event. PredictionMachine.com says that there is a 90% chance that the Colts won't win by 14. It also says that there is a 90% chance that the Saints won't win by 14. Remember, there is only a 20.6% chance that Colts can even cover the spread.

Vegas knows this. Vegas has intentionally set the spread so that they have an overwhelming (at least 79.4%) chance of collecting that 68.5% of betting money that went down on the Colts. They are in this business to make money, not to lose money. It does not pay Vegas to pick the winner. Vegas wins when you lose. The spread has been set to pretty well ensure you will lose your bet on the Colts. Vegas wasn't built on winners. Vegas was built on losers.

With that said, it should be noted that former Colts coach Tony Dungy has stated publicly that he does not believe SB44 will be close. He says it will be a snoozer with the Colts winning by 2 TDs. The Colts will hold the lead all game long.

When asked why he thinks that, Dungy states that Vikings laid an egg with 7 turnovers, and the Saints still only won the game by a field goal in overtime. The Colts will not turn over the football 7 times. The Colts, on the other hand, wasted the most powerful defense in the league. Ergo the Colts deserve to be there and the Saints don't?

You'll pardon me for saying so, but this is the purest example of human bias I have ever seen. Not only does his paternal pride show through, but he hyper-extends just one point of data when are 17 others to consider for each team. There is a way to hyper-extend one point of data such that you break your neck and your back. This is what human biases do to you. Don't buy off on it.

Why I am not concerned about the Championship games and their outcomes? I'll tell you why:
  1. The Jets sustained serious injuries in their secondary during the course of the AFC champions game. This is why their coverage broke down, and they were forced to stop blitzing.
  2. The Jets may have been the #1 defense in the league this season, but that isn't saying a whole lot. There was no legendary defense in the NFL during 2009. The Jets' defensive statistics do not compare favorably with those of the great defenses of the past.
  3. We knew the Jets did not have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Colts.
  4. The Saints began to play in a very odd, and conservative manner once the Vikings began to turn over the football. It is as if their confidence rose to a point where they did not feel they needed to be aggressive or take risks. They were confident that the Vikings were self-destructing. They took it easy, presuming the win was in the basket. This resulted in a much closer match than I expected.
  5. I expect to see the same Saint team we saw against Arizona. This is a Saint team that is greatly concerned about the scoring prowess of their rival. I expect the Saint offense to swing for the fences and attack ruthlessly all game long. They know they are going to have to outscore the Colts in a scoring match. Even if the Colts begin to drop the ball, I expect the Saints to attack viciously and relentlessly.
So there you have it. If you took the Colts and the points, you are a stupid sucker. The most likely outcome of this game is that the last team to have possession of the football will probably win by a last-second field goal in regulation. This scenario cannot result in the spread being covered.

Friday, February 5, 2010

High School class reunions? How strange...

Today, the unrelenting radio sports bullshit regarding SB44 broke wide-open, but only for a few minutes. Some local sports talk guys here in L.A. were tired of talking about subjects out of their depth of knowledge, so they decided to talk about something within the scope of their IQs: High School class reunions.

How strange... It was so strange, in fact, that I stopped and listened to them. It was good relief. So what did these jokers come up with? People go to the reunions stag, so they can see if they can finally hook up with that hottie they were despirate for back in the days of high hormones and low budgets.

Interesting...

I personally cannot relate to that subject at all. My High School was quite impoverished when it came to Beautiful young women. I hate to say that, but it is true. The Bullard class of 1984 really only had 2 outstanding beauties. We had a lot of social busybodies who tried to be hot, but were not.

I met one of the two beautiful women in my graduating class at Super Cuts in the year 1991. I fresh off the plane, returning from the United States Army. It was my goal to finally finish college. Lisa was cutting hair at Super Cuts for God knows how little per hour and per day. Life had not treated her well. She had fallen in love with a Norse exchange student I never met. She was impregnated by him, and he returned to Norway quickly. She was then a single mother. Later in life, I heard rumors that she did not marry well.

The other hottie wounded me tremendously. I have never wanted to meet up with her again.

The 10, 20 and 25 year reunions of the Bullard class of 1984 have already flown by on the Calandar. I never even looked into the prospects for attending. Never had an interest. There are one or two people I would like to see again from my old class, but there is no guarentee that they will be there. There are a lot of people from my old class, and my old football team, who I would never want to see again. On balance, there is simply no desire or motivation to go party with these folks again.

I find the very idea of wanting to go back for hookups exceedingly strange. I can concied that, perhaps in Los Angeles, the situation would be a bit different. With a much higher concentration of hot women her in Los Angeles, the population of beautiful young ladies in school was probably quite a bit larger than in mine.

Time to dump the West Coast Offense in St. Louis

It is time for the Rams to dump the West Coast Offense and adopt a more spread-like offense. Our experiment with the West Coast Offense has been a complete and unmitigated catastrophe. I don't mean maybe either.

The West Coast allegedly came to St. Louis in the form of Scott Linehan on January 19th of 2006. He was fired after game 4 of the 2008 regular season. Linehan will be forever known as the man who destroyed the Greatest Show on Turf. He destroyed it by getting rid of the Martz offense, which was little more a collection of plays custom tailored to the exact strengths of our offensive players. Linehan jammed our players into his edition of the West Coast system, a complex ball-control passing system based on flexible and adaptive routes. The players, particularly Torry Holt, Issac Bruce and Marc Bulger absolutely hated the system. They made a lot of mistakes. They were used to running exact routes, tailored to their strengths, and they loved it.

Linehan's solution was to get rid of Issac Bruce, try to unload Torry Holt, and stick with Bulger because of his cap number. That failed miserably.

Two years ago, the Rams drafted #2 overall, signifying that we were the 2nd worst team in football. Two years ago we did the same thing. This year are drafting number 1, signifying that we are the worst team in professional football. As I have stated many times on this blog, we are the worst team in professional football for 1 reason: We finished dead last in scoring. This indicates we have the worst offense in the league. So much for the West Coast in St. Louis.

Make no mistake, a large reason for our lack of point production is the West Coast Offensive system. The West Coast is outdated, outmoded and obsolete. It does not work well anymore. As coach Brian Billick says, nobody plays the West Coast offense as Walsh once did. Everybody has absorbed some components of the system, but nobody plays it as the 49ers did. This is because your can't play it as the 49ers did and enjoy success.

The 49er offense worked for a brief period of time and for just two historical reasons. In 1981 we were only 3 years removed from the 1978 rules changes which opened up the passing game. Teams were absolutely bomb-happy. Defenses were deathly afraid of the bomb. Second, we were only really 1 year removed from the epoch of the Steel Curtain defense. Everybody was still emulating the Steeler model of defense. This system was very much like the Tampa-2, dropping safeties back deep to stop big plays. They used their big and bad 4 down linemen to attack the quarterback, without much recourse to the blitz.

The epoch of 1981 to 1990 was just about perfect for dink-n-dunk scheme that Mr. Walsh invented. Most defenses would surrender the short pass to you, not believing that you could march down the field on a collection of mistake-free short passes. To his credit, Bill Belichick was
one of the first guys to realize that this program was lethal if left unchecked.

Belichick's response to the West Coast was simple and beautiful. He decided he would only defend 40 yards of ground from the line of scrimmage. He knew most of the action would occur in the first 15-20 yards from scrimmage. He called this first 20 yards the redzone. This turf would be defended with a hard man-on press coverage. The next 20 yards was called the yellow zone, and it was defended with a soft-zone coverage; a scheme notorious for generating vicious hits. His linebackers were instructed to smother running backs (like Roger Craig) circling out of the backfield. He knew full well that the 49ers had no thought of going deep down the field on a typical play. He understood Joe Montana did not have the arm to throw the football 50 yards down field with accuracy.

When confronted with the Belichick-Box, the only solution is for the Quarterback to (A) Run with the football (B) wait for the deep pass to open up. For a receiver to clear coverage more than 40 yards down field in full pads, more than 5 seconds of good pass-protection is needed. This was tough to come by as Lawrence Taylor and Leonard Marshall were rushing from the same or different sides of the line. Montana tried to hold the ball for more than 5 seconds in the NFC championship game of 1990/1991. Leonard Marshall effectively terminated his career with the 49ers on that day.

The Belichick Box defeats the West Coast offense. It is now the default defensive position for all teams about to play West Coast opponent. If you don't have an All-Pro offensive line, you won't break the box. If you don't have a super-mobile QB, you won't break the box. If you don't have world-class sprinters at the WR position, you won't break the box. This is why the West Coast Offense doesn't work anymore. Too much talent is required to defeat a relatively simple defensive scheme.

Guess what? The dirty little secret the NFL keeps in the closet is that a modified version of the Spread Offense is now the king of all passing attacks in Pro Football. This is the system the New England Patriots have been running since 2007. This is the system that allowed Tom Brady to break the touchdown record with 51. This is the system Ben Rothlisberger has been working in for the past two years. Both participants in this year's Super Bowl also use plenty of spread in their weekly play list.

The Spread Offense has aspects of the West Coast and aspects of the Air Coryell offense embedded with in it. This is a pass-first offense, where you establish the passing game, and then run later. You control the football and gain the lead by passing. Unlike these schemes, it is run out of the Shotgun. You line up with 3, 4 and even 5 wide receivers. Unlike these schemes, it almost always employs the quick-time, or no-huddle offense. Many plays are called at the line of scrimmage. The Spread most resembles what used to be called the Run-N-Shoot offense.

Interestingly enough, the Spread is considered a very QB and Wide Receiver friendly offense. It is flexible and adaptable to the strengths of your players. It is considered simple enough to implement in the short college season with relatively young and inexperienced players.

If this is a Copycat League, teams should emulate success, and anti-imitate failure. One of the most stubbornly run biased teams in the league has been my Rams, and we are officially the worst team in football. The most run biased team in Football is the Jets. They barely made the playoffs at 9-7. The Colts are dead last in rushing (#32) and yet they are the favorite to win this year's Super Bowl.

What does all this tell you?
  1. 1-15 up to 9-7 is the victory range for run biased teams.
  2. 9-7 up to 16-0 is the victory range for Spread teams.
  3. Dump the Run First approach.
  4. Adopt the Pass First approach.
  5. Do not force players into a ridged and complex system like the West Coast.
  6. Adopt a simple and flexible passing scheme like the Spread.
  7. Tailor the system to fit the strengths of the players, as Mike Martz did.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

PredictionMachine.com

As I was headed home from work today, I heard the manager/creator of PredictionMachine.com giving the results of his computer simulation of SB44 to the general populace of Southern California. What were they?

Predictalator ran the Super Bowl 50,000 times. Based on this simulation the following probabilities emerged:
  1. The Colts won 51.4% of the matches
  2. The Saints won 48.6% of those matches
  3. The average score was 28-27 Colts
  4. The Colts averaged 398 yards of offense
  5. The Saints averaged 376 yards of offense
  6. Manning threw for 306 yards
  7. Brees threw for 258 yards.
  8. Manning finishes with QB rating of 92.2
  9. Brees finishes with a QB rating of 96.1
  10. 5 Colts have more than 2 catches
  11. 7 Saints have more than 2 catches
  12. The Saints average 13 more yards in penalties.
  13. The Colts fail to cover the point spread (4.5 points) in more than 60% of their victories.
Once again, if I were giving you some friendly betting advice, I would tell you to take the Saints and the points. The Saints won 48.6% of the simulations. The Colts failed to cover in 60% of their victories in this simulation. You gotta like them odds. You have a better than 75% chance of making money if you do as I tell you.

So what do I think of all this? It is plausible, but not as authoritative as the Madden Simulator. PredictionMachine.com gives us a lot of basic data that seems to make sense. The absolute final point of all this simulation is that this is an unbelievably tight matchup that can go either way.

Those who believe the Colts are a big-time favorite are suffering a world class case of human bias. They are being overawed by the ledgend of Manning at the moment when he is becoming recognized as the greatest of all-time. The first rule of accurate prediction is getting human bias, including hero worship, out of the picture. The nice thing about all computer software packages that they are not vulnerable to hero worship.

The numbers and the simulations speak loudly: This is an incredibly close match. It should be a heart-attack thriller.

So Vick is coming to the Rams...?

Bouy... the once proud Yahoo! Sports section is really circling the drain now. According to unnamed and sundry sources inside some Fantasy Football league, the Eagles are planning to deal Vick to the Rams.

According to these 'sources', Jason La Canfora is biting on a piece of trickeration. The Eagles will deal Vick, and the Rams are the leading contenders to acquire Vick's services via trade. This is because Billy Devaney was in Atlanta during the time Vick was QB there, and Spagnuolo was a defensive assistant to Jimmy Johnson for years. Allegedly, this means he can mine Andy Reid's mind for useful nuggets about Vick.

All this proves that a deal is going down. Yep...

When Adam Schefter and Jason La Canfora report the deal is in the works, I will believe it. When Yahoo! sites fanboys who have yet to move out of their mother's basement, I just can't believe the reports. Further, I am astounded that Yahoo! sports would report a story with this kind of credibility gap in the sources.