So what's my take on this trade?
- The Eagles were crazy to deal McNabb for an unproven commodity like Kevin Kolb.
- The Eagles' situation is not comparable to the Favre+Packer situation. McNabb is a lot younger than Favre, and he never did the "I'm retiring/I'm back" disco dance.
- The Eagles will now enter a rebuilding/transition phase. They will win less games not more. The Eagles were 11-5 last season, I doubt they will be close to that this season. Perhaps they will finish 8-8.
- Consider the Packers. They had a super QB sitting on the bench in Aaron Rodgers. Nevertheless, a team that was 13-3 in 2007 fell to 6-10 in 2008 largely because of the transition. Of course, the defense had much to do with it, but the Packer offense was not nearly as explosive in 2008 as 2007.
- Do you think Kolb is as good as Rodgers? The Philly homer may want to say yes. The objective observer from the West does not think so. Rodgers may very well prove himself the best QB in the league this season, provided he stays healthy. He looks like one of the most deadly QBs in the league from my point of view. If the Packers can just cut the damn sacks down from 51 to 30, Rodgers may well take the MVP title from Peyton Manning this season. I seriously doubt Kolb is close to that level. Maybe I am wrong, but in my experience, a QB that good rarely comes along. I doubt we will see two such powerful QBs emerge so quickly in succession.
- If Kolb is substantially less a QB than Rodgers, expect the Eagles transition to be worse than the Packers.
- Dealing your QB within the division is stupid and borderline suicidal. Take it from me, a Ram fan. We dealt Jim Everett--a QB who lead a parallel life to McNabb in many respects--inside our division to the New Orleans Saints. Everett crucified every time we played against him. He knew our defense inside and out. He knew who was weak. He knew how to burn him. He knew all this from countless hours of scrimmaging against our defense, and hear the DC complain about guys.
- Consider Sonny Jurgensen, a distant relative of mine on my mama's side of the family. The Eagles dealt him to the Redskins and he immediately threw 5 TD passes against the Eagles at the first opportunity. Believe me, history repeats itself: The first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.
- Consider what Favre is doing to the Packers right now. I realize that Jared Allen was a major key to victory in both those games, but they would not have out-scored the powerful Packer offense without Favre in either case.
- Consider the fact that Shanahan is now in Washington. Sorry to inform you of this, but Shanahan is better than Reid. It isn't just because of the 2 rings that I say that. They already have a fairly nasty defense. Now Shanahan and McNabb are going to boot-strap his offense into the picture. You have much to be concerned about.
- The Eagles now have a lot of picks, but this has been the case for the past several years. The pattern is pretty clear. Most of the offensive choices do well. Most of the defensive choices don't. There are exceptions on both sides, but this is the pattern. If the pattern holds, a significant number of 2010 picks will be wasted on defensive players who don't pan out.
In conclusion, I see the East as a two-horse race. The Giants are rebuilding their defense, but they will chase the Cowboys from behind. The Cowboys now have to be the prohibitive favorite to win the East. If the Cowboys don't win the East, the 2010 Cowboys will be an utter disgrace to the lone star of Texas. If they don't win its a shame.
I expect some back-biting, recriminations and drama once the Eagles get into the heavy water of 2010. I wish you well, but I think you just jammed your dick in the door and slammed it. Like Mayock says "Be careful of what you wish for, because you just might get it."
