The Squirek Factor

When the Madden simulator is so good at predicting the outcomes of the games, why do we still bother to play them? Why risk life and limb playing this dangerous game when we can predetermine the outcomes?

'Tis a specious question, but I'll give you one good answer: The Squirek Factor. What is the Squirek Factor? Let me tell you about The Squirek Factor.

Near the end of the first half of play in Super Bowl 18, Raider defensive coordinator Charlie Sumner anticipated a screen pass to Joe Washington. Sumner inserted a little known special teams linebacker into his defense, and ordered him to run right at Joe Washington, expecting this screen pass. That fellow was Jack Squirek. Sure enough, it was the screen pass Sumner expected. Squirek intercepted the pass and Waltzed right into the endzone for a crushing touchdown.

Later, in post mortem, experts pointed to the Squirek touchdown as the moment that ended the competitive phase of Super Bowl 18. From that point on it was an ugly route, from which no honor could be salvaged. Squirek played a season or two more and was never heard from again. He now runs a successful janitor service in Cleveland.

Super Bowl 42 was the last time the Madden simulator got the outcome wrong. There was a huge Squirek Factor in that Super Bowl. Deep in the 4th quarter, with Giants trailing the Patriots by 4 points, an obscure special teams Wide Receiver named David Tyre was inserted into the lineup. It is a crucial 3rd down situation. Eli Manning, running for his life from several Patriot defenders who seemed to have him cornered a split second ago, unleashes a long high-arc shot at Tyre. The pass is ugly and overthrown. David Tyre leaps about as high as I've ever seen a wide receiver go and makes a sensational catch. He does so with 10 time Pro Bowler and future Hall of Famer Rodney Harrison slapping the living shit out of him. Plaxico Burris would catch the game winning TD pass a few plays later.

By the close of the game, we all realized that Tyre's catch was the decisive moment in the game. Tyre made the catch that sunk the undefeated Patriot's dynasty. It is commonly considered the greatest catch in Super Bowl history. Tyre's catch was selected by ESPN's Chris Berman as the biggest single play of the decade of the 2000s. Rodney Harrison would later say, on an NBC broadcast, that he had had 6 surgeries due to damage taken in football. Nothing ever hurt him as much as David Tyre's catch.

Tyre played a couple more years for the Giants, doing little, and suffering several injuries. He was released by the Giants at the beginning of 2009. His catch was a massive example of the Squirek Factor.

Anytime a totally unknown player makes a crucial or decisive play which pivots the outcome of the game, and then disappears into the fog of history, we describe that play as an example of the Spuirek Factor. Everybody expects Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, or Dwight Freeney, or Darrin Sharper to make a decisive play in Super Bowl 44.

What if a totally unknown 3rd string offensive guard gets inserted into the punt return team for the Colts deep in the 4th quarter? What happens if this guy is not blocked, gets a free run at the punter, blocks the kick and waltzes into the endzone with the football? That could be absolutely decisive. That would be an example of the Squirek Factor.

What if a totally unknown 3rd string corner gets insert into the Saints defense with just 31 seconds left, only because of injury? What happens if Manning over-looks him because he is an unknown dude? What if said corner intercepts Manning on what should be the game winning drive? That would be a massive example of the Squirek Factor.

The Squirek Factor is the X Factor. It is the unknown and the unpredictable variable in the flow of events. It is the one bit of chaos space in an otherwise predictable world. It is the moment when unknown bench warmers get into the Super Bowl and do something sensational which alters the game.

This does happen from time to time.

There are three things we cannot predict in SB44. We can't predict who gets the Football first. We can't predict who will hold the football last. We can't predict whether there will be a Spuirek Factor or what that might be. These three things could still pivot the outcome of the game.

The Madden 2010 Similator predicts a 35-31 victory for the Saints in SB44

Each year since 2004, EA sports has simulated the results of the Super Bowl using their marvelous John Madden Football software. The set the system in CPU vs CPU combat mode, and they give the system a fresh load of the very latest statistical facts about team and player performance.

How good is the result? The Madden simulator has accurately predicted the outcome each and every year since 2004 with the sole exception of 2007. This was the year that the Giants upset the Patriots. Nobody called that one, and that's why we still play the games.

With the ever increasing sophistication of the software, the growing power of the CPUs, and every improving statistics, the simulator has been getting more and more accurate each year. In the past two seasons the accuracy of results of the simulator have been astounding

1. The simulator accurately predicted a 4 point victory for the Steelers over the Cardinals last year, missing the final score by only 1 point for each team.
2. The simulator predicted a 31-17 victory for the Colts over the Jets in the AFC Championship. It missed by just 1 point. The final was 30-17.
3. The simulator predicted a 34-31 victory for the Saints over the Vikings in the NFC Championship. Further, the simulator called for a last second field goal by the Saints. It turns out the Saints won 31-28 by a field goal in sudden death overtime.

Now Madden says the Saints prevail 35-31. Tomorrow, I intend to show you a simple spreadsheet of team statistics which demonstrates why that prediction is:

1. Totally reasonable and plausible
2. Exactly what we should expect from an unbiased simulation based on stats.

As I said to you once before: If you would like a friendly piece of betting advice, you should take the Saints and the points. Either the Saints will win it straight-up, or the Colts won't cover the 4.5 point spread. Either way, you will win money.

No Michael Vick for the Rams

Last night, Jason La Canfora of the NFL Network surprised me, and everyone else who follows the NFL, with the following juicy tid-bit. The Eagles love having three good QBs, and they have every intention of maintaining the status quo. Although Michael Vick has publicly stated that he wants to be a starter again, the Eagles have no intention of trading him, and Vick is not on the trading block. The Eagles feel that they are poised for a Super Bowl run in 2010, and they don't want any hiccups if Donovan McNabb should happen to be injured for a couple of games.

When asked what they will do with Vick on a game-to-game basis, Andy Reid indicates that he is going to go back to the drawing board and re-work the Wildcat program that didn't quite work in 2009. He intends to try it again. If at first you don't succeed...

It should be noted that Yahoo Sports categorically rejects Jason's report, but they do so on logical rather than factual grounds. Mark J. Miller simply declares that it makes no sense to pay such a large figure to Vick in 2010 when he is just a backup. He still believes that Vick will be traded or released in the Spring of 2010.

Mr. Miller may be forgetting that the Commish has stated in no uncertain terms that 2010 is going to be an uncapped year. Normal rules do not apply or pertain to 2010. The Eagles can spend the money if they want too.

I listened to these reports with substantial disappointment. Those who read this blog know that I am not a particular fan of Vick, and that I favor Tebow as a long term solution to the Rams' QB needs. Still, all of us Tebow fans know full-well that Tebow is going to require at least one full Red-Shirt season in the NFL to work on mechanics. I was hoping that we could acquire Michael Vick as our starter for (at least) 2010. This would allow us to construct our offense entirely around the concept of having a mobile Southpaw Quarterback. This would make our line adapt to blocking for mobile Lefty, and get all our receivers used to the reverse spin on the Football.

Just as I became used to the idea of this perfect fit, the Eagles went and snatched it away from me. Let's hope the Yahoo's Mike Miller is correct about this, but I think La Canfora is the better source.

LeFevour or Tebow?

Some esteemed colleagues of mine, who dearly desire the best possible things for the Rams, have strongly urged that Bill Devaney take a hard look at Central Michigan University's Dan LeFevour. Many of these brethern believe that LeFevour is a much better prospect than Tim Tebow, and that he is vastly more NFL ready.

Not wanting to miss out on a diamond in the rough, I have investigated Dan LeFevour at some length. I also saw him play at the Senior Bowl. What have I found out? First the basics

Dan LeFevour

6'3" 230 Right Hander

March 19th, 1987 Pisces

Central Michigan University, MAC

4 year starter

4.72 40 time
Speed runner

Career QB Efficiency = 143.7

LeFevour played in a wide-open spread offense much like the one Tebow played in at Florida. The one significant difference is that CMU liked to go deep and get the big play a bit more frequently than Florida. Like Tebow, LeFevour was a 4 year starter. Like Tebow he is considered a dual-threat quarterback, both running and passing effectively. He played in the little Mid-America Conference, the same group that spawned Ben Rothelisburger.

LeFevour became just the second player in NCAA history (after Vince Young, Texas) to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the same season. LeFevour joined Florida’s Tim Tebow as the only players in NCAA history to pass for 20 touchdowns (27) and score 20 touchdowns (19 rushing, 1 receiving) in the same season.

How does this compare with Tim Tebow?

Tim Tebow

6'3 236 Left Hander

August 14, 1987 Leo

University of Floria, SEC

4 year starter

4.82 40 time

Runner with great power

Career QB Efficiency = 176

Tebow played in the big and bad SEC, the Division of Champions. As we know, Florida won two national championships under his administration, and did so competing against a plethora of Sunday talent. He is also one of the most decorated players in college football history, winning most awards a QB can acquire.

After careful consideration, I am impressed by the similarities between these two young men. They seem almost like right handed and left handed mirror opposite images of each other. There are a few key differences. LeFevour is a tad faster. Tebow is the more powerful runner. LeFevour is rated as having decent throwing mechanics. Tebow has a long windup which many have complained about. LeFevour has sporadic accuracy issues. He tends to go hot and cold in terms of accuracy. Although Tebow has mechanical problems, this according to the critics, he has never had problems with accuracy.

Both of these gents have long highlight reels. Both of them have a plethora of spectacular plays on film. If you go to the YouTube.com and type in each of these two names, you will see plenty of highlight material. Just be careful not exaggerate LeFevour's speed. The clock says he isn't much faster than Tebow. He just looks faster because he is going against slower MAC defenses.

Claims that LeFevour is more NFL ready are totally unfounded. Like Tebow, LeFevour comes from a spread offense. Like Tebow, he seldom or never lined up under center. Like Tebow, LeFevour was in the Shotgun and Pistol nearly 100% of the time. Like Tebow, he ran with the football quite a bit. They both come out of extremely similar offensive schemes. Other than slightly better mechanics, there is no reason to assert that LeFevour is more NFL ready.

In my research, one fact leapt off the HTML at me and bit me right on the nose. Folks, I am going to give you the golden nugget straight up: Against NFL calibur talent in the SEC, Tim Tebow's career pass efficiency rating was no less than 176. Against much weaker talent in the MAC, LeFevour pitched 143.7.

When you add Tebow's awesome intangibles, I think the picture becomes extremely clear: Tebow remains the better candidate.

I want the critics to stand up and explain to me how a kid with lousy mechanics managed to tally a QB efficiency rating of 176 against a bunch of Sunday talent in the SEC? If his mechanics haven't killed him yet, you need to explain to me why they will now.

One other factor for your consideration: Like many others, I believe Southpaws enjoy an advantage in the NFL. Because the overwhelming majority of QBs at every level are right handers, defenders grow accustomed to playing against righties. I am talking about deeply ingrained habitual tendencies that we defenders aren't even aware of. Because southpaws do everything in a mirror flip way, defenders always seem to experience a little lag in dealing with these QBs. This is why even modestly tallented Southpaws like Ken Stabler and Boomer Esiason enjoyed great success. This is why an extremely talented southpaw like Steve Young ranks near the very tip top of the heap.

Dave's Law says that a Southpaw QB causes 12 miliseconds of lag or delay in a defense's reaction time due to backward-read problems. That 12 miliseconds can be absolutely decisive in key situations. It can make the difference between 18 inches of daylight and 4 feet of daylight.

If LeFevour is selected by the Rams, I will be able to accept that. He looks better to me than Clausen. However, I remain on the Tim Tebow bandwaggon.

I am very pleased to see Dexter McCluster's grill on the Rams' site!

You know this guys is an offensive super-weapon. He is perfect lightning to Steve Jackson's thunder. He's the guy who can return the explosive wheel route to our offensive game plan; something we have been missing since Marshall Faulk retired. I love this guy. He is my second favorite kid in the entire draft, right after Tebow. I want to see Tebow and McCluster play pitch and catch in Ram uniforms. This would be a beautiful thing indeed.

Why the Rams will select Ndamukong Suh #1 overall in 2010

Without further Ado, here are the reasons why:

1. Because deals for top end picks are very difficult to do under the prevailing economic circumstances.
2. Because the 49ers and the Seahawks are the only two teams in the NFL with two picks in the first round. Trading with either of these teams means putting Suh against our weak guards.
3. Under John Shaw we have had a tremendous predilection for selecting defensive linemen high in the first round. From Kevin Carter, to Grant Winstrom, to Devin Williams, to Jimmy Kennedy, to Adam Carriker, to Chris Long, the Rams like taking defensive linemen.
4. Because there is no other player at any other position more worthy of being selected #1 in this years draft.
5. Because this is a bad Quarterback year, and there are certainly no Quarterbacks worthy of being selected #1 in the draft.
6. Because Gerald McCoy is a tad too light, and tad too much of a pass-rushing specialist. We can use the superior run-stopping power of Ndamukong Suh.
7. Because coach Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive coordinator at heart. He loves 3 and 4 defensive end configuration with athletic and lean defensive linemen spearheading the defense. You know coach Spags is salivating right now.
8. Because we do not know that veteran Leonard Little is going to return for a 14th campaign.
9. Because placing Ndamukong Suh between Long and Carriker will cause all three of these 1st rounders to explode.

If it were possible to do a significant deal for the #1 pick, I would expect Shaw and Devaney to pull the trigger on this deal.

The Toronto Rams...?

I really wish Silent Enos Stanley Kroenke would step up to the plate, hammer out some political according, and buy the Rams.

According to the latest (ludicrous) rumors circulating, one of the three major bids for the Rams comes from a group with strong ties to Toronto. Alleged leaks from inside this group declare that Toronto business interests have grown very tired of the Buffalo Bills stalling & dragging their feet in making a deal to play (at least a portion) of their regular season games in Hogtown. Ergo, they have decided to make a play for the Rams, with the explicit purpose of moving them to Toronto.

Naturally, there have been denials circulating since this rumor hit the Internet. None of the three groups currently bidding on the Rams have publically declared that they will move the team. Even if you have every intention of moving, why would you declare such a thing? It would aggravate the Rosenblooms, make League approval more complicated, and alienate the hell out of the people of St. Louis. It might even trigger Silent Steve to drop his poison pill. If you want to move the Rams, it pays to shut up about it.

My fanship has lasted some 30 years and spanned 4 different stadium facilities in several towns. If the Rams were to move to Toronto, I would hope the organization would do what the Baltimore Ravens did. I would hope that they would change their identity and drop the uniforms. Call them the Toronto Werewolves, Aardvarks or Koalas. I don't care.

Honestly, I won't be able to continue to cheer for this team if they move to Toronto. That will break the Camel's back.

The Rams remain the NFL's best shot for re-growing a foothold in the 2nd largest market in North America: Los Angeles County. I would hope that the league, and especially our good rivals in the NFC West, would have the common sense to block ownership by the Toronto group.