Do you remember when the Browns traded Quinn for Hillis?

The prince is advised to commit all his atrocities upfront. The people will forgive him for the early bloodletting over rest of his long and peaceful reign. So said Machiavelli.

I remember it all very well. I better remember it. It was just last year.

President Mike Holmgren walks in the door at Cleveland, and tosses Derek Anderson out on his ass. He then trades hometown hero and 1st round draft pick QB Brady Quinn for an unknown fullback who has been scrubbing for the Bronco special teams.

As you may imagine, this created quite a shockwave in Cleveland. Most Brown fans were very disappointed that Holmgren chose not to exercise his formitable QB coaching skills in developing Brady Quinn. They were disconsolate that Mike shredded a 1st round pick and got next to nothing for him. Many were pissed.

My, my, my, what a difference a year makes.

That unknown fullback was none other than Peyton Hillis. He played in all 16 games in 2010, carried 270 times, and rushed for 1,177 yards. He turned out to be half Mike Alstott and half Larry Czonka. The fans in Cleveland bonded with him immediately, and they love this guy to death.

Incidentally, EA Sports just put Hillis on the cover of John Madden's Football 2012. He beat out Mike Vick and Aaron Rodgers for that honor. Now he is an entertainer and an icon in addition to being a pretty good Aquarius kid for his Gemini boss.

Now Brown fans are laughing like hell about how badly Holmgren snookered the Broncos. I still wonder if the Peyton Hillis for Brady Quinn trade was the final nail in Josh McDaniels' coffin. When Hillis exploded in Cleveland, and Brady Quinn did nothing in Denver, I think Pat Bowlen detonated.

When you look at what Derek Anderson did for he Cardinals in 2010, and what Quinn did for the Broncos last year, I think it's pretty damn obvious that Holmgren made the right moves. There can be no doubt that he shed dead weight.

Hillis now has to face the jinx, but he seems unafraid. I think this guy is a 1,000 horse power bulldozer. If anybody can whup the jinx, he will.

The Madden 2010 Similator predicts a 35-31 victory for the Saints in SB44

Each year since 2004, EA sports has simulated the results of the Super Bowl using their marvelous John Madden Football software. The set the system in CPU vs CPU combat mode, and they give the system a fresh load of the very latest statistical facts about team and player performance.

How good is the result? The Madden simulator has accurately predicted the outcome each and every year since 2004 with the sole exception of 2007. This was the year that the Giants upset the Patriots. Nobody called that one, and that's why we still play the games.

With the ever increasing sophistication of the software, the growing power of the CPUs, and every improving statistics, the simulator has been getting more and more accurate each year. In the past two seasons the accuracy of results of the simulator have been astounding

1. The simulator accurately predicted a 4 point victory for the Steelers over the Cardinals last year, missing the final score by only 1 point for each team.
2. The simulator predicted a 31-17 victory for the Colts over the Jets in the AFC Championship. It missed by just 1 point. The final was 30-17.
3. The simulator predicted a 34-31 victory for the Saints over the Vikings in the NFC Championship. Further, the simulator called for a last second field goal by the Saints. It turns out the Saints won 31-28 by a field goal in sudden death overtime.

Now Madden says the Saints prevail 35-31. Tomorrow, I intend to show you a simple spreadsheet of team statistics which demonstrates why that prediction is:

1. Totally reasonable and plausible
2. Exactly what we should expect from an unbiased simulation based on stats.

As I said to you once before: If you would like a friendly piece of betting advice, you should take the Saints and the points. Either the Saints will win it straight-up, or the Colts won't cover the 4.5 point spread. Either way, you will win money.