5 Wins for the Rams in 2010...?

On last Friday's edition of ESPN Live!, former Corner and Head Coach Herman Edwards made a bold statement: A franchise quarterback means 4 more wins for your football team. He didn't give us examples, or statistics, he just left that apple tart for us on the table.

From now on I am going to call this Herm Edwards' law: A franchise QB means 4 more victories.

This created some echos and reverberations around the NFC West, a division thought to have no franchise quarterbacks... but a division which is hopeful. Now that they are running a considerable number of spread-like plays and formations, the 49ers have seen Alex Smith begin to blossom. The Seahawks just made a very strange trade, and they are hopeful. The Cardinals have been developing Matt Leinhart for some time now. The Rams just invested the absolute #1 pick in the 2010 draft in Sam Bradford. You know what they are thinking.

ESPN has a good blogger named Mike Sando who is extremely performance-simulation oriented. I like reading his stuff. He always points at some pretty interesting quantitative analysis or simulations. A while ago, Sando blogged that 10,000 reps of the NFC West schedule for 2010 produced some 7,300+ division titles for the 49ers. As many of us suspect, the 49ers have to be favored to win the division this year. The same simulations showed 4 victories for the Rams in 2010. This was the most common outcome. The Rams rarely won less than 3 games, and very rarely managed 6 wins.

Let's put it all together an extrapolate:

• The Rams had no franchise QB in 2010
• We want to believe we have one now.
• We won just a single game last season (1-15)
• Herm Edwards says a franchise QB adds 4 wins to your record
• Sando's favorite simulations say that the Rams are likely to win 4 games

So, if Devaney is right, and Sam Bradford is a franchise-making QB, we should win 5 games in the 2010 season. 1 + 4 = 5. For some this will seem plausible. For others it will not.

I am skeptical. I am usually skeptical. It is in my scientific and philosophical training. Leave no postulate unexamined. Don't presume math is reason. Never assume the model takes everything into consideration.

Here is some food for thought with this theory in mind:

• If Sam Bradford should play in 16 games, and we accrue 5 wins, I will be willing to say Devaney's big-time gamble appears to be paying off.
• If Sam Bradford should play in 16 games, and we accrue 5 wins, it would appear Herm Edwards' Law looks reasonable.
• If Sam Bradford should play in 16 games and we accrue 5 wins, we will have exceeded the computer projections by 1 game. We'll give that one to Sam. He will get credit for beating the spread.
• If Sam plays 16 and we get 6 or 7 wins, I think everybody will know what that means. He will have busted the ceiling in this case. Just remember, we're going to have to score more than 300 points to get to the 6 or 7 mark.
• What will it mean if Sam plays 16 and we win 1 or 2?
• What if Sam doesn't start until week 8 and we are 0-7 at that point? What if he managed 3 wins in the last 9? What will we make of this outcome?
• What if Sam doesn't start until week 8 and we are 0-7 at that point? What if he wins 5 of the last 9? I think we will know what to make of that outcome. There will be some celebration.
• So here is the goat-screw scenario: Suppose we start A.J. Feeley and we open up 4-0? What do we do then? That would not be such a good thing, eh?

Let me give you my personal thoughts about all this.

Troy Aikman is a name that seems to keep coming up in connection with Sam Bradford. That's not just because they are both from Oklahoma. It's not just because they are both accurate. It's because Aikman is the only absolute #1 QB pick to trigger a turn-around from kaput-worst to dynasty. Devaney knows that. I reminded him of that. He's using this imagery as propaganda to inspire us.

With that in mind, let's remember that Aikman was 0-15 during his first season as a starter. The 1 victory the Cowboys got during 1989 occurred with Steve Walsh at the helm. The Cowboys did not panic. Neither should we.

Pat Shurmur is going to be the limiting factor that busts the deal in 2010. I have not complained at all about Spagnuolo because I see him doing a tremendous job with very limited talent on the defense. Our defense rarely or never looked stupid last season. They were overwhelmed several times. Our D was betrayed many times by a pathetic offense that turned it over deep.

The offense was the problem in 2009. I can say, with great confidence, that I know our defense will be better in 2010. They are getting it. They have bought into Spagnuolo's system. They are playing like they have great confidence in their coach and his scheme. They may not be that talented a unit, bu they are trusting each other and handling their responsibilities.

I can't say any of these things about the offense. Shurmur did not manage a weak offensive unit nearly as well as Spagnuolo managed our weak defensive unit. Our offense looked downright stupid many, many times last season. This had much to do with Shurmur's lack of game management, and lack of skill in play-calling.

The offense played with enough confidence to leave a Dristan capsule half-empty. They didn't look like they understood what was expected of them. They looked like Keystone Cops in October against the 49ers. They didn't look to me like they had any confidence at all that the scheme would work. It looked to me like they were going through the motions, just trying to get the season over-with.

All of these things are a dreadful reflection on the OC.

Do we believe Shurmur is suddenly going to find his sea-legs in 2010? Do we think he is going to command the respect of the troops, and inspire them to greatness?

Do we think Shurmur will call a mean-game, like Mike Martz would? Is he suddenly going to diagnose precise weaknesses in the enemy D and viciously exploit them through well-constructed mis-matches, as Martz would?

Shurmur gave me many indications last season that he is a ridged and inflexible system guy. He is probably going to rely on the adaptation built into the WCO passing scheme to do his work for him... When he is not running the football.

Unfortunately, this is an out-moded and out-dated offense which has been systematically rendered infective by the Belichick Box. If Shurmur doesn't step outside his comfort-zone and bring some opponent-specific strategies to the table in 2010, we're not going anywhere.

This is why I want Shurmur fired. I have no confidence in this guy's ability to construct an adaptive game strategy for specific opponents.

Until we unload Pat Shurmur we need to be very cautious about calling 4 or 5 wins for the Rams in 2010.

The grand sports media conspiracy and ESPN

Well, well, well... how the tide has turned for Tim Tebow this morning. Todd McShay appeared on NFL Live last night and said very flattering things about Tebow's progress. Colin Cowherd, a famed Tebow detractor, hosted Herman Edwards this morning and had a discussion about Tebow. Cowherd moderated his position extensively... With Herm Edward's help. Everyone on ESPN seems to be warming to Tebow. Mel Kiper Jr has not been heard on this subject.

All of this reminds me of grand media conspiracy I have heard about many times over the past 20 or so years. You see, the sports media needs consumer/customers. Media outlets need you every day. Big dips in interest are really bad business. It's hard to make up for the big dippers during the big spikes. If there were any strategies one might employ to even out interest to some degree, it would make a big difference to the bottom line.

Are there any such strategies? Sure. How about if we build up a super hero, and then we tear him down, and then build him up again. A larger than life figure in trouble is a compelling news story indeed. We see it all over the place. Especially if and when the kid is tremendously popular, sticking him in a rough patch will make for a compelling drama. You can produce an award winning soap opera as the kid tries to dig himself out of a hole.

So you build 'em up to tear 'em down, and tear 'em down to build 'em up.

Tebow's draft journey sure looks like it matches this profile. It looks like ESPN may well have applied one of their cookie-cutter templates for drama to Tim Tebow. Tebow was the perfect dupe for this as well. A tremendously popular kid, perceived as being too perfect, loaded with athletic ability and achievements. Fans in every one of the 32 NFL markets are campaigning for their teams to take Tebow.

Guess what folks at home? Tebow has no future. He just isn't an NFL Quarterback. Bad mechanics, comes out of the spread, he can't read a defense, and he's stupid. He's a good guy and all, but he just can't play NFL football. It's tragic really.

There is a traumatized reaction in the nation. People all over the country gasp. Fans in all 32 NFL cities look at each other in astonishment, and demand clarifications of this verdict. ESPN is happy to oblige. Just tune in. Kiper will give you the word.

Disappointed fans ask themselves if it is really true. Some lemmings go along with it. Those with age, experience, and confidence in their eyes reject Kiper's conclusions. An Internet battle of the blogs ensues. As the war heats up, ESPN's NFL team and the NFL Network do much better business than expected during this off season.

Then Tebow stumbles at the Senior Bowl. The critics become ferocious. The defense bears down. Tebow does well at the combine. Bullets are exchanged. Tebow does very well at his ProDay. NFL HQ invites Tim Tebow to come to Radio City Music Hall on draft day.

Suddenly ESPN turns around. Tebow is really an okay guy. With a year or two of development, he will find his way in the NFL. He's a developmental project, but he will be fine. Tebow got some pretty fine endorsements last night on NFL Live. Troy Aikman, Archie Manning, Bob Greise, and John Gruden all gave him ringing endorsements. It's looking good for Tebow again.

The people are relieved. We would hate to see such a great kid disappointed in life. Rejoicing begins in the nation. The 32 campaigns to draft Tebow go back to regular business.

Some very bitter college football fans who lost to Florida are extremely pissed, and write some fantastically overwrought rants. Check this one out. That one is so overheated, so over the top, it must have been designed over the course of several days or several minutes.

Anyhow... I am pretty irritated with myself. How the hell did I fall prey to such a simple diversionary ploy? At ripe old age of 43, after 30 years of observing the sports media, how did I buy into this stunt?

Because I am one those guys campaigning for my team to take Tebow, that's why. Still I should have been smarter about this.